A well organized center of circulation developed within a small area of thunderstorms south of Diego Garcia on Monday and the system was designated Tropical Cyclone Fantala.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fantala was located at latitude 13.0°S and longitude 70.8°E which put it about 420 miles (675 km) south-southwest of Diego Garcia.  Fantala was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (14 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Cyclone is still organizing.  A primary rainband is wrapping around the southern and western sides of the center of circulation.  Most of the thunderstorms are near or in the primary rainband.  There are few thunderstorms east of the center of circulation.  The thunderstorms are generating upper level outflow to the west side of the circulation.

The environment is favorable for further intensification.  Fantala is over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  An upper level ridge south of Fantala is generating light easterly winds over the core of the circulation.  The easterly winds are producing a little vertical wind shear.  The shear is strong enough to contribute to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms, but it is not strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Fantala could become the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon within 24 hours.

A subtropical ridge south of Fantala is expected to steer the tropical cyclone in a general westerly direction during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Fantala could be northeast of La Reunion later this week.