Typhoon Bavi intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Thursday night. The threat posed by Bavi prompted the issuance of Typhoon Watches and Tropical Storm Watches for the Marianas. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Bavi was located at latitude 12.9°N and longitude 153.8°E which put the center about 625 miles (1010 km) east of Guam. Bavi was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.
Typhoon Watches are in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan.
Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for Alamagan, Pagan, and Agrihan.
A circular eye with a diameter of 21 miles (33 km) was at the center of Typhoon Bavi. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Bavi’s circulation. Storms near the core of Bavi generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from typhoon. The removal of large quantities of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.
The circulation around Typhoon Bavi was fairly symmetrical. Winds to typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Bavi’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of Typhoon Bavi.
The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Bavi is 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 18.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 40.7. Typhoon Bavi is similar in intensity to Hurricane Jeanne when Jeanne hit South Florida in 2004. Bavi is not quite as large as Jeanne was.
Typhoon Bavi will more through an environment that will be very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Bavi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Bavi will intensify during the next 24 hours. Bavi could intensify rapidly at times. Typhoon Bavi could strengthen to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale during the next 24 hours.
Typhoon Bavi will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Bavi toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Typhoon Bavi could reach the Marianas in less than 60 hours.
Typhoon Bavi will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Marianas. Bavi could be capable of causing catastrophic damage. Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations.
Flood Watches are in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan.
Typhoon Bavi could cause a storm surge of up to 16 feet (5 meters) along the coast of the Marianas.
Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Maysak was bringing gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Hainan. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Maysak was located at latitude 17.9°N and longitude 109.4°E which put the center about 25 miles (40 km) south of Sanya, China. Maysak was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.