Typhoon Bavi rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Bavi was located at latitude 12.7°N and longitude 151.9°E which put the center about 500 miles (805 km) east of Guam.  Bavi was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (315 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 921 mb.

Typhoon Watches are in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan.

Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for Alamagan, Pagan, and Agrihan.

A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) was at the center of Typhoon Bavi.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Bavi’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Bavi generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from typhoon.  The removal of large quantities of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Typhoon Bavi was fairly symmetrical.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Bavi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of Typhoon Bavi.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Bavi is 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 18.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 53.6.  Typhoon Bavi is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Maria when Maria hit Puerto Rico in 2017.

Typhoon Bavi will more through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bavi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Bavi could continue to intensify during the next 24 hours unless an eyewall replacement cycle occurs.  If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall and concentric eyewalls form, then an eyewall replacement cycle would cause  Bavi to weaken.

Typhoon Bavi will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bavi toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Bavi will reach the Marianas in 48 hours.

Typhoon Bavi will bring very strong winds and heavy rain to the Marianas.  Bavi could be capable of causing catastrophic damage.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan.

Typhoon Bavi could also cause a storm surge of up to 16 feet (5 meters) along the coast of the Marianas.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Maysak was moving toward the coast of Southern China.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Maysak was located at latitude 20.2°N and longitude 108.5°E which put the center about 115 miles (185 km) south of Qinzhou, China.  Maysak was moving toward the north-northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.