Tropical Cyclone Ellie Makes Landfall in Northwest Australia

Tropical Cyclone Ellie made landfall on the coast of northwestern Australia on Thursday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ellie was located at latitude 14.6°S and longitude 130.2°E which put it about 130 miles (210 km) south-southwest of Darwin, Australia. Ellie was moving toward the south-southeast at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Tropical Cyclone Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Daly River Mouth to the border between the Northern Territory and Western Australia.

A low pressure system over the Timor Sea near the northwest coast of Australia strengthened on Thursday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Ellie. Tropical Cyclone Ellie made landfall on the coast south-southwest of Darwin within a few hours of being designated as a tropical cyclone. Ellie was the equivalent of a tropical storm at the time of landfall. The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km/h).

Tropical Cyclone Ellie will move toward the south-southeast during the next 24 hours. Ellie will move farther inland over the western part of the Northern Territory of Australia. Tropical Cyclone Ellie will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the western parts of the Northern Territory. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Flood Watches were in effect for the Carpentaria Coastal Rivers, the Bonaparte Coastal Rivers, the North West Coastal Rivers, and Inland Northern Territory Catchments.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Darian was moving toward the west over the South Indian Ocean. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Darian was located at latitude 12.8°S and longitude 85.4°E which put it about 985 miles (1590 km) east-southeast of Diego Garcia. Darian was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 961 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Darian Equivalent of Cat. 4 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Darian was the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale as it moved westward over the South Indian Ocean on Wednesday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Darian was located at latitude 13.2°S and longitude 88.6°E which put it about 1195 miles (1930 km) east-southeast of Diego Garcia. Darian was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 925 mb.

A small circular eye was at the center of Darian’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Darian. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Darian. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 170 miles (275 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Darian was 31.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 46.2.

Tropical Cyclone Darian will move through an environment favorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Darian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Darian could maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replace cycle could begin. An eyewall replacement cycle would cause Darian to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Darian will move around the northern part of a subtropical high pressure system north of the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Darian toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Darian will be southeast of Diego Garcia later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Darian Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Darian rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean east-southeast of Diego Garcia on Tuesday. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Darian was located at latitude 14.0°S and longitude 92.7°E which put it about 1255 miles (2355 km) east-southeast of Diego Garcia. Darian was moving toward the southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 946 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Darian continued to intensify rapidly on Tuesday. A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) was at the center of Darian’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Darian. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.

The size of Tropical Cyclone Darian increased as it intensified rapidly. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Darian. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 165 miles (265 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Darian was 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 39.9.

Tropical Cyclone Darian will move through an environment favorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Darian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Darian could continue to intensify during the next 24 hours. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replace cycle could begin. An eyewall replacement cycle would cause Darian to weaken temporarily.

Tropical Cyclone Darian will move around the northern part of a subtropical high pressure system north of the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Darian toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Darian will be southeast of Diego Garcia later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Darian Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Darian rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean west of Cocos Islands on Monday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Darian was located at latitude 12.8°S and longitude 93.5°E which put it about 230 miles (370 km) west of Cocos Islands. Darian was moving toward the south-southeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 971 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Darian rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the past 24 hours. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Darian’s circulation. An elliptical eye formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Darian. A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Darian’s circulation. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km/h) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Darian. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Darian will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Darian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Darian is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Darian will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system centered north of Australia. The high pressure system will steer Darian slowly toward the south during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Darian will remain southwest of Cocos Islands. A subtropical high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean will steer Darian toward the west later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Darian Forms West of Cocos Islands

Tropical Cyclone Darian formed over the South Indian Ocean west of Cocos Islands on Sunday. At 7:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Darian was located at latitude 11.9°S and longitude 92.8°E which put it about 270 miles (440 km) west of Cocos Islands. Darian was moving toward the southwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean west of Cocos Islands strengthened on Sunday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Darian. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern and western sides of the center of Darian’s circulation. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Darian.

Tropical Cyclone Darian will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Darian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Darian will intensify during the next 36 hours. Darian could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Darian will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system centered north of Australia. The high pressure system will steer Darian slowly toward the southeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Darian will pass southwest of Cocos Islands.

Tropical Cyclone Mandous Weakens over the Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone Mandous weakened over the Arabian Sea on Friday. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mandous was located at latitude 13.6°N and longitude 64.1°E which put it about 600 miles (970 km) southeast of Masirah, Island. Mandous was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Mandous weakened over the Arabian Sea on Friday. An upper level ridge centered over India produced southwesterly winds that blew the tops off of many of the thunderstorms in Mandous. The remaining thunderstorms were in bands in the eastern periphery of Tropical Cyclone Mandous. Bands in the rest of Mandous’ circulation consisted of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Cyclone Mandous will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next several days. Mandous will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. However, the upper level ridge over India will continue to produce southwesterly winds will blow across the top of Mandous’ circulation. Those winds will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. In addition, northeasterly winds in the lower levels will transport drier air from Asia over the western Arabian Sea. A combination of strong vertical wind shear and drier air in the lower levels of the atmosphere will cause Tropical Cyclone Mandous to continue to weaken. The circulation around Mandous will gradually spin down during the next several days.

Tropical Cyclone Mandous will move south of a high pressure system over southern Asia and the northern Arabian Sea. The high pressure system will steer Mandous toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Mandous move slowly across the central Arabian Sea.

Tropical Cyclone Mandous Strengthens over Arabian Sea

Former Tropical Cyclone Mandous strengthened over the Arabian Sea on Wednesday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mandous was located at latitude 13.6°N and longitude 68.2°E which put it about 780 miles (1260 km) south of Karachi, Pakistan . Mandous was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The circulation around former Tropical Cyclone Mandous strengthened back to tropical storm force over the Arabian Sea on Wednesday. More thunderstorms formed at the center of Mandous’ circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Mandous. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the northwestern quadrant of Mandous’ circulation. The winds in the other parts of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Mandous will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Mandous will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over southern Asia and the Arabian Sea. The ridge will produce southerly winds will blow toward the top of Mandous’ circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. Northeasterly winds in the lower levels will transport drier air from Asia over the western Arabian Sea. The western side of Mandous’ will begin to interact with the drier air during the next 24 hours. A combination of moderate vertical wind shear and drier air in the lower levels of the atmosphere is likely to cause Tropical Cyclone Mandous to start to weaken on Thursday.

Tropical Cyclone Mandous will move south of a high pressure system over southern Asia and the northern Arabian Sea. The high pressure system will steer Mandous toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Mandous will remain far to the south of Pakistan.

Former Tropical Cyclone Mandous Moves over Arabian Sea

The circulation of former Tropical Cyclone Mandous moved over the Arabian Sea on Tuesday. At 1:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mandous was located at latitude 12.6°N and longitude 71.8°E which put it about 215 miles (345 km) west of Mangaluru, India. Mandous was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

After making landfall on the coast of southeastern India between Puducherry and Chennai on Friday, Tropical Cyclone Mandous moved westward across southern India during the weekend. The circulation of former Tropical Cyclone Mandous emerged over the Arabian Sea west of India on Tuesday. The circulation around Mandous was still well organized. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north and west of the former tropical cyclone.

Former Tropical Cyclone Mandous will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Mandous will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the northwestern part of an upper level ridge over southern Asia and the Arabian Sea. The ridge will produce northwesterly winds will blow toward the top of Mandous’ circulation. Those wind will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Former Tropical Cyclone Mandous could strengthen during the next 24 hours. Northeasterly winds in the lower levels are transporting drier air from Asia over the western Arabian Sea. Mandous is likely to weaken when it reaches the mass of drier air later this week.

Former Tropical Cyclone Mandous will move south of a high pressure system over southern Asia and the northern Arabian Sea. The high pressure system will steer Mandous toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track, former Tropical Cyclone Mandous will move farther away from the coast of southwest India.

Pakhar Weakens to a Tropical Depression

Former Tropical Storm Pakhar weakened to a tropical depression over the Western North Pacific Ocean northeast of the Philippines on Monday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Pakhar was located at latitude 19.3°N and longitude 131.1°E which put it about 745 miles (1205 km) east-northeast of Manila, Philippines. Pakhar was moving toward the southeast at 7 m.p.h. (21 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

After strengthening on Sunday, former Tropical Storm Pakhar weakened to a tropical depression on Monday. An upper level trough west of Japan produced strong southwesterly winds that blew across the top of Pakhar’s circulation. Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear and they blew the top of former Tropical Storm Pakhar away to the northeast of the lower level circulation. The circulation around Tropical Depression Pakhar on Monday afternoon consisted of a swirl of showers and lower clouds. Any clouds that grew higher into the atmosphere were quickly sheared apart by the strong upper level winds.

The circulation around Tropical Depression Pakhar will spin down gradually during the next 24 hours. Pakhar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. However, the upper level trough west of Japan will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The wind shear will prevent the development of new thunderstorms around Tropical Depression Pakhar.

Since the circulation around Tropical Depression Pakhar only exists in the lower levels of the atmosphere, it will be steered by the winds near the surface. Northeasterly winds will push Pakhar back toward the southwest. On its anticipated track, the circulation around Tropical Depression Pakhar should dissipate east of the Philippines during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Storm Pakhar Develops Northeast of the Philippines

Tropical Storm Pakhar developed over the Western North Pacific Ocean northeast of the Philippines on Sunday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Pakhar was located at latitude 18.5°N and longitude 127.5°E which put it about 470 miles (755 km) east-northeast of Manila, Philippines. Pakhar was moving toward the northeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system northeast of the Philippines strengthened on Sunday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Pakhar. More thunderstorms developed near the center of Pakhar’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Pakhar. Storms near the center of Pakhar generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Pakhar will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Pakhar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. An upper level trough east of China will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Pakhar’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Storm Pakhar could strengthen during the next 18 hours. The upper level trough will move closer to Pakhar on Monday and the upper level winds will get stronger. More vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Storm Pakhar to weaken early next week.

The upper level trough over eastern China will steer Tropical Storm Pakhar toward the northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Pakhar will move farther away from the Philippines. When the vertical wind shear increases on Monday, strong upper level winds could blow the top off of Tropical Storm Pakhar. If that happens, then Pakhar will be steered by winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Those winds could steer Pakhar back toward the southwest early next week.