Tag Archives: Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone 11S Forms East of Northern Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone 11S formed east of the northern tip of Madagascar on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone 11S was located at latitude 13.2°S and longitude 54.3°E which put it about 535 miles (865 km) north of St. Denis, La Reunion.  It was moving toward the southeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A distinct center of circulation finally developed on Friday in an area of thunderstorms that had been stationary northeast of Madagascar.  A primary band of storms wrapped around the northern side of the center of circulation and then storms began to develop near the center.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation and the structure of the circulation was organized enough to be classified as a tropical cyclone.  Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone 11S will be moving through an environment that is very favorable for intensification.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  Tropical Cyclone 11S is located under an upper level ridge and the upper level winds are weak.  There is little vertical wind shear to inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone 11S will intensify during the weekend and it is likely to intensify rapidly at times.  Tropical Cyclone 11S could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next two or three days.

Tropical Cyclone 11S and its precursor have been in an area where the steering winds were weak.  A subtropical ridge located to the east of the tropical cyclone is forecast to strengthen.  The ridge will steer Tropical Cyclone 11S toward the south-southwest.  Early model guidance suggests that the center of the tropical cyclone will move between Madagascar and La Reunion, but there is still uncertainty in the future track of the system.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta Speeds Past La Reunion

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta sped past La Reunion on Thursday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Berguitta was located at latitude 22.8°S and longitude 54.3°E which put it about 70 miles (110 km) southwest of La Reunion.  Berguitta was moving toward the west-southwest at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta was the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it moved past La Reunion.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  So, parts of La Reunion may have experienced winds to hurricane/typhoon force.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 230 miles (370 km) from the center.  Winds to tropical storm force would have occurred over all of La Reunion.  Berguitta also dropped locally heavy rain over La Reunion and flooding is a possibility.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta will move into an environment that will become increasingly less favorable for a tropical cyclone as it moves away from La Reunion.  Berguitta is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 26°C, but it will move over colder water when it moves farther south.  An upper level trough west of Madagascar will produce northwesterly winds which will increase the vertical wind shear.  A combination of colder water and increased shear will slowly weaken Tropical Cyclone Berguitta.  Berguitta will likely make a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the weekend.

Berguitta is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge, which is steering the tropical cyclone toward the southwest.  It is expected to continue to move toward the southwest for another day or so.  At that time Berguitta will move around the western end of the ridge and it will move more toward the south.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Berguitta is expected move steadily away from La Reunion.  Berguitta is forecast to stay east of Madagascar.  Weather conditions on La Reunion should gradually improve as Tropical Cyclone Berguitta moves away.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta Brings Wind, Rain to Mauritius & La Reunion

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta was bringing wind and rain to Mauritius and La Reunion late Wednesday as it closed in on those places.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Berguitta was located at latitude 20.1°S and longitude 58.0°E which put it about 80 miles (130 km) east-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Berguitta was moving toward the southwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta was the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon as it approached Mauritius and La Reunion.  A partial eyewall surrounded the remnant of the eye.  A primary rainband wrapped around the western side of the circulation.  The heaviest rain was falling in the rainband.  Numerous bands of showers and isolated thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  Tropical Cyclone Berguitta was still generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the center of circulation.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 195 miles (315 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta was moving through an environment that could allow it to maintain its intensity for another 24 to 36 hours.  Berguitta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  An upper level ridge to the east of Berguitta is producing easterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the tropical cyclone.  Those winds are causing moderate vertical wind shear, but they may not be strong enough to weaken the storm during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering the tropical cyclone toward the southwest.  A general southwesterly motion is expected to continue for another day or two.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Berguitta will reach Mauritius within six hours.  The center of Berguitta will be near La Reunion in 12 to 14 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta will bring strong, gusty winds to Mauritius and La Reunion on Thursday.  It could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it moves over those places.  The center could pass right over Mauritius and the winds to hurricane/typhoon force could blow over it.  The center could pass just to the east of La Reunion, but winds to hurricane/typhoon force could also blow across it.  Berguitta will also drop locally heavy rain which could cause floods.  The winds could cause a storm surge of 5 to 8 feet (1.5 to 1.5 meters) on the eastern shores where the winds will be blowing water toward the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta Moves Closer to Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta moved closer to Mauritius and La Reunion on Tuesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Berguitta was located at latitude 18.4°S and longitude 60.3°E which put it about 250 miles (400 km) east-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Berguitta was moving toward the southwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta weakened a little on Tuesday but it remained a dangerous tropical cyclone.  An upper level ridge southeast of Berguitta produced easterly winds which caused some vertical wind shear over the tropical cyclone.  Satellite imagery also suggested that Berguitta could have gone through an eyewall replacement cycle.  The combination of increased wind shear and a possible eyewall replacement cycle altered the structure of Berguitta.  Microwave satellite images intermittently indicated the presence of an eye at the center of circulation.  However, almost all of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring west of the center of circulation.  The bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of low clouds and showers.  The increased shear probably caused the asymmetrical distribution of storms.

Berguitta will move through an environment supportive of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  The upper level ridge will continue to produce vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will likely prevent Berguitta from intensifying significantly.  Tropical Cyclone Berguitta is forecast to weaken slowly during the next 24 hours, but it could maintain most of its intensity, since it is still over warm water.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering the tropical cyclone toward the southwest.  A general southwesterly motion is forecast to continue for another day or two.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Berguitta could reach Mauritius in 24 hours.  Berguitta is likely to be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it reaches Mauritius.  It will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain.  Heavy rain could cause serious flooding.  The strong winds could generate a storm surge of 4 to 7 feet (1 to 2 meters) at the coast.  Tropical Cyclone Berguitta could reach La Reunion within 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta strengthened into the equivalent of a major hurricane on Monday as it moved over the South Indian Ocean.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Berguitta was located at latitude 18.1°S and longitude 62.4°E which put it about 375 miles (600 km) east-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Berguitta was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed is 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta quickly intensified into the equivalent of a major hurricane on Monday.  A well formed circular eye developed at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in the ring.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  Storms near the center of Berguitta were generating upper level divergence which was pumping large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 215 miles (345 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta will move through an environment supportive of a strong tropical cyclone for several more days.  Berguitta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It is moving through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Berguitta is likely to maintain its intensity as the equivalent of a major hurricane and it could intensify further during the next day or two.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta is moving near the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering the tropical cyclone toward the southwest.  A general motion toward the southwest is forecast to continue for two or three more days.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Berguitta could reach Mauritius within 48 hours.  Berguitta could reach La Reunion in less than 72 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta is a dangerous storm.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Berguitta is 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 14.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 34.7.  Those indices indicate that Tropical Cyclone Berguitta is capable of causing regional major damage.  Berguitta will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Mauritius and La Reunion.  The heavy rain is likely to cause flooding  and Berguitta could generate a storm surge at the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta Intensifies Into Equivalent of a Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta intensified into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Sunday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Berguitta was located at latitude 17.8°S and longitude 63.1°E which put it about 415 miles (670 km) east-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Berguitta was nearly stationary.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Berguitta continued to get better organized on Sunday.  An eye appeared intermittently at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by an elliptical ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in those storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  Storms near the center of Berguitta were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta will continue to move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Berguitta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Berguitta will continue to strengthen and it could intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta is moving in a region where the steering winds are weak.  Berguitta moved little on Sunday.  A subtropical ridge south of Berguitta is forecast to steer the tropical cyclone slowly westward during the next 24 to 48 hours.  Berguitta will near the western end of the ridge in about two days and it is likely to move toward the southwest after that time.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Berguitta could reach Mauritius within 72 hours.

The core of Tropical Cyclone Berguitta could move very close to Mauritius and La Reunion.  Berguitta could be the equivalent of a major hurricane at that time.  It has the potential to cause major wind damage, a storm surge, heavy rain and floods.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean microwave images of Invest 99S depicted a structure that looked very much like a tropical cyclone.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Invest 99S was centered at latitude 15.1°S and longitude 41.6°E which put it about 75 miles (120 km) east of Lumbo, Mozambique.  Microwave satellite images showed a clear area at the center of circulation surrounded by broken ring of showers and thunderstorms.  A primary rainband wrapped around the eastern side of the circulation and secondary bands of showers and thunderstorms existed in all quadrants of the circulation.  However, no official government agency is classifying the system as a tropical cyclone at the current time.

Tropical Low Forms Over Western Australia

A Tropical Low formed over Western Australia on Monday and a Tropical Cyclone Watch was issued for a portion of the coast.  At 2:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 15.9°S and longitude 126.1°E which put it about 135 miles (220 km) west-southwest of Wyndham, Australia.  It was moving toward the southwest a 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 20 m.p.h. (30 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (85 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.  The Australia Bureau of Meteorology has issued a Tropical Cyclone Watch for the portion of the coast of Western Australia from Kuri Bay to Wallal Downs including Broome.

The circulation of the Tropical Low is still organizing.  There is a broad low level center of circulation, but there are not many showers and thunderstorms near the center.  There are numerous bands of showers and storms developing in bands on the eastern and western peripheries of the circulation.  The strongest wind gusts are occurring in those storms.  The lack of storms near the center of circulation is keeping the system from generating much upper level divergence.

The core of the Tropical Low is likely to remain over land for another 12-24 hours, which will inhibit the organization of the circulation.  When the center moves off the coast and over the South Indian Ocean, it will move into an environment favorable for intensification.  The Sea Surface Temperature of the water west of the coast of Western Australia is near 30°C.  The Tropical Low is moving north of the axis of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge is producing easterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation, but there is not a lot of vertical wind shear.  The Tropical Low is likely to strengthen when it moves over water and it could intensify rapidly if a more concentrated center of circulation develops.

A subtropical ridge is current steering the Tropical Low toward the southwest, but a general motion toward the west-southwest is expected during the next 24 to 48 hours.  The Tropical Low will reach the western end of the ridge in about two days and then it will turn more toward the south.  On its anticipated track the center of the Tropical Low is expected to move off the coast between Kuri Bay and Derby on Tuesday.  The center is forecast to pass near Cape Leveque and then turn south toward Wallal Downs.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Ava continued to swirl near southern Madagascar and stronger Tropical Cyclone Irving was passing well to the south of Diego Garcia.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Ava was located at latitude 27.7°S and longitude 46.8°E which put it about 180 miles (295 km) south of Farodofay, Madagascar.  Ava was moving toward the west-southwest at 17 m.p.h. (27 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Irving was centered at latitude 19.6°S and longitude 76.1°E which put it about 875 miles (1415 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Irving was moving toward the west-southwest at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.  Tropical Cyclone Irving was the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Tropical Cyclone Ava Drops Heavy Rain on Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Ava dropped heavy rain over Madagascar on Saturday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ava was located at latitude 21.4°S and longitude 48.2°E which put it about 70 miles (110 km) north-northwest of Mananjary, Madagascar.  Ava was moving toward the south-southeast at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Ava weakened into the equivalent of a tropical storm during the day it spent moving over Madagascar.  The strongest winds were occurring in bands of thunderstorms over the water.  The center made landfall on Friday near Toamasina.  The center then passed near Moramanga, Anosibe An’ala, and Marolambo.  There is still a distinct center of circulation and several bands of showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the center.  Some of the storms dropped heavy rain over parts of Madagascar.  There was stronger rising motion in places where the winds blew up the sides of mountains and the rainfall was heavier in those locations.  The potential for flooding exists in places that received heavy rain.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Ava is likely to move back over the water of the South Indian Ocean during the next few hours.  Tropical Cyclone Ava will move into an environment that is favorable for intensification when it moves back over water.  The Sea Surface Temperature of the water east of Madagascar is near 28°C.  Ava is moving under the axis of an upper level ridge and the upper level winds are relatively weak.  So, there is not a lot of vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Ava is likely to strengthen once the center moves back over water.

Tropical Cyclone Ava is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering Ava toward the south-southeast.  The ridge is forecast to steer Tropical Cyclone Ava toward the south for another day or two.  When Tropical Cyclone Ava moves farther to the south in about 48 hours, an upper level trough will cause northwesterly winds, which will start to steer the tropical cyclone toward the east-southeast.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Ava is expected to move off the coast of Madagascar near Mananjary in a few hours.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Irving was strengthening east-southeast of Diego Garcia.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Irving was located at latitude 13.3°S and longitude 87.5°E which put it about 1145 miles (1845 km) east-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Irving was moving toward the west-southwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

Satellite imagery suggested that Tropical Cyclone Irving could be strengthening rapidly.  A primary rainband was wrapping around the center of circulation.  An eye appeared to be forming at the center of Irving.  Tropical Cyclone Irving will move through an environment favorable for intensification.  Irving is likely to intensify into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon while it passes well to the south of Diego Garcia during the next several days.

Strong Tropical Cyclone Ava Makes Landfall in Madagascar

Strong Tropical Cyclone Ava made landfall on the east coast of Madagascar near Toamasina on Friday.  At 10:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ava was located near 18.0°S and longitude 49.2°E which put it near Toamasina.  Ava was moving toward the west-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.  Tropical Cyclone Ava was the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Tropical Cyclone Ava intensified rapidly during the past 12 hours and it was still intensifying when it made landfall on the coast of Madagascar.  There was a well defined circular eye at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  Thunderstorms in the core of Tropical Cyclone Ava were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping away mass and allowed the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 180 miles (290 km) from the center.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Ava was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 17.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 35.4.  Those indices indicate that Tropical Cyclone Ava is capable of causing regional serious damage.  The core of Tropical Cyclone Ava passed over Toamasina and there is likely to be serious wind damage in that city.  Heavy rain was falling in parts of eastern Madagascar and floods could occur.  Tropical Cyclone Ava could produce a storm surge of 10 feet (3 meters) south of where the center made landfall, because the strong winds will be blowing the water toward the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Ava will weaken while the center moves over land in eastern Madagascar.  However, the rest of the environment is favorable for a tropical cyclone.  The Sea Surface Temperature off the east coast of Madagascar is near 28°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  If the inner core of Tropical Cyclone Ava remains intact, then Ava could intensify again when the center moves back over the South Indian Ocean in a day or so.

Tropical Cyclone Ava is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering the tropical cyclone toward the west-southwest.  Ava will start to move toward the south when it reaches the end of the ridge in a few hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Ava is forecast to move just inland of the east coast of Madagascar.  Ava is forecast to move back off the coast in 24 to 36 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Ava is capable of causing serious damage along the central east coast of Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Ava Strengthens East of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Ava intensified east of Madagascar on Thursday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ava was located at latitude 17.4°S and longitude 50.8°E which put it about 125 miles (205 km) east-northeast of Toamasina, Madagascar.  Ava was moving toward the west-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Ava exhibited the classic structure of a tropical cyclone on Thursday.  A clear eye was evident at the center of circulation on microwave satellite imagery.  The eye was surrounded by a nearly complete ring of showers and thunderstorms.  Spiral bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Ava.  Storms in the core of Ava were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 140 miles (225 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Ava will move through an environment favorable for intensification on Friday.  Ava will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28.5°C.  Tropical Cyclone Ava is moving near the western end of an upper level ridge, but the upper level winds are weak and there is not much vertical wind shear.  Warm water and little vertical wind shear will allow Tropical Cyclone Ava to intensify during the next 24 hours.  Ava should strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Friday.

Tropical Cyclone Ava is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge, which has been steering Ava mostly toward the west.  Tropical Cyclone Ava is forecast to move more toward the southwest on Friday as it nears the western end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Ava will move close to the east coast of Madagascar near Toamasina in 18 to 24 hours.  When Ava reaches the western end of the ridge in about 24 hours, it will start to move more toward the south.

Tropical Cyclone Ava will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the east coast of Madagascar.  The winds will be strong enough to do damage and they could generate a storm surge at the coast.  Rain is already falling on parts of eastern Madagascar and more heavy rain will create the potential for floods.