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Tropical Cyclone Narelle Intensifies to Equivalent of Cat. 4 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Narelle intensified to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle was located at latitude 13.6°S and longitude 147.2°E which put the center about 265 miles (425 km) north-northeast of Cairns, Australia.  Narelle was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning for the east coast of the Cape York Peninsula that is in effect from Lockhart River to Cape Tribulation.  The Warning includes Coen and Cooktown.  A Warning is also in effect for the west coast of the Cape York Peninsula from Mapoon to Pormpuraaw.  That Warning includes Weipa.

A Watch is in effect for the portion of the west coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria from south of Nhulunbuy to Port Mcarthur.

A circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was present at the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Narelle’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Narelle generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds around Tropical Cyclone Narelle was symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Narelle’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Narelle is 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 17.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 42.2.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle is similar in intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017.  Narelle is bigger than Harvey was.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Narelle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the northern part of the Coral Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle is likely to intensify during the next 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over the Coral Sea.   The high pressure system will steer Narelle toward the west during the next 24 hours.   On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Narelle will approach the coast of Queensland near Cape Melville in 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will bring very strong winds and heavy rain to the northern part of the Cape York Peninsula later this week.  Narelle will be capable of causing severe damage.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle could also cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along the coast near where the center of circulation makes landfall.

Flood Watches are in effect for parts of the Cape York Peninsula and the North Tropical Coast of Queensland.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle Prompts Warning for Cape York Peninsula

The risks posed by Tropical Cyclone Narelle prompted the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to issue a Warning for part of the Cape York Peninsula on Wednesday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle was located at latitude 13.1°S and longitude 149.9°E which put the center about 420 miles (675 km) northeast of Cairns, Australia.  Narelle was moving toward the west-southwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning for the coast of Queensland that was in effect from Lockhart River to Cape Tribulation.

A Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Weipa to Kowanyama.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle was strengthening as it moved toward the coast of Queensland.

A small circular eye was present at the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Narelle’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Narelle generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Narelle was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Narelle’s circulation.  Winds to  tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Narelle was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.0.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Narelle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the northern part of the Coral Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Narelle could intensify rapidly at times.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane by Thursday.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over the Coral Sea.   The high pressure system will steer Narelle toward the west during the next 24 hours.   On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Narelle will approach the coast of Queensland near Cape Melville in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the northern part of the Cape York Peninsula later this week.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for parts of the Cape York Peninsula and the North Tropical Coast of Queensland.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Narelle strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon as it moved over the Coral Sea on Tuesday evening.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle was located at latitude 12.4°S and longitude 153.3°E which put the center about 600 miles (970 km) east-northeast of Cairns, Australia.  Narelle was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Watch that was in effect for the portion of the coast of Queensland from Lockhart River to Port Douglas.  The Watch extended across the central Cape York Peninsula to the Gulf of Carpentaria.  The Watch was in effect for the west coast of the Cape York Peninsula from Weipa to Kowanyama.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Tuesday evening.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Narelle’s circulation.  A small eye formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Narelle’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Narelle generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Narelle was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Narelle’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Narelle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the northern part of the Coral Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Narelle could intensify rapidly at times.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane by Thursday.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over the Coral Sea.   The high pressure system will steer Narelle toward the west during the next 24 hours.   On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Narelle will approach the coast of Queensland near Cape Melville in 35 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the northern part of the Cape York Peninsula later this week.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for parts of the Cape York Peninsula and the North Tropical Coast of Queensland.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle Develops Over the Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Narelle developed over the Coral Sea on Monday night.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle was located at latitude 12.4°S and longitude 154.8°E which put the center about 705 miles (1140 km) east-northeast of Cairns, Australia.  Narelle was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

A low pressure system over the Coral Sea strengthened on Monday night and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Narelle.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Watch for the coast of Queensland from Lockhart River to Port Douglas.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle was intensifying rapidly on Tuesday morning.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Narelle’s circulation.  A small eye appeared to be forming at the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Narelle’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Narelle generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Narelle was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Narelle’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Narelle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the northern part of the Coral Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Narelle could intensify rapidly.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle will strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next few hours.  Narelle could intensify to the equivalent of a major hurricane by Thursday.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over the Coral Sea.  The high pressure system will steer Narelle toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Narelle will approach the coast of Queensland near Cape Melville in 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the northern part of the Cape York Peninsula later this week.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for parts of the Cape York Peninsula and the North Tropical Coast of Queensland.

Weaker Tropical Cyclone Ann Nears Northern Queensland

A weaker Tropical Cyclone Ann neared northern Queensland on Monday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ann was located at latitude 14.4°S and longitude 148.4°E which put it about 230 miles (370 km) east-northeast of Cooktown, Australia.  Ann was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.  The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Tropical Cyclone Warning that extended from Lockhart River to Cooktown including Coen and Lizard Island.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Ann weakened on Monday because of a drier, more stable environment and more vertical wind shear.  Low level convergence pulled drier, more stable air closer to the center of Tropical Cyclone Ann.  The drier, more stable air caused many of the stronger thunderstorms to weaken.  Despite the drier, more stable environment stronger thunderstorms redeveloped south of the center of circulation late on Monday.  Tropical Cyclone Ann was moving near the northwestern portion of an upper level ridge.  The ridge produced easterly winds which caused moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear also contributed to the weakening of storms in the northern half of the circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Ann continued to have a distinct low level center of circulation despite the less favorable environment.  However, the wind field exhibited a more asymmetric structure.  The strongest winds were occurring in an area of thunderstorms south of the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center in the southern half of the circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out about 50 miles (80 km) from the center in the northern half of the circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Ann will continue to move through a less favorable environment during the next 24 hours.  Ann will move over water in the Coral Sea where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27.5°C.  It will continue to move through a region where there is drier, more stable air and the upper level ridge will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The drier, more stable air and moderate vertical wind shear will prevent significant intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Ann could maintain its intensity during the next 12 hours, but it may weaken when it approaches the coast of the Cape York Peninsula.

Tropical Cyclone Ann will move north of a ridge which will steer Ann toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Ann will make landfall on the Cape York Peninsula in northern Queensland in about 24 hours.  Ann will bring some gusty winds, but the greatest risk will be locally heavy rain.

Tropical Cyclone Ann Strengthens Over Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Ann strengthened over the Coral Sea on Sunday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ann was located at latitude 15.4°S and longitude 153.6°E which put it about 565 miles (910 km) east of Cairns, Australia.  Ann was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Ann exhibited greater organization on Sunday.  There were indications on satellite images that a cloud filled eye might be trying to form at the center of circulation.  A broken ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Ann.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Ann will be moving through an environment that contains factors favorable for intensification and a factor that will inhibit potential intensification.  Ann will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  So, there will be sufficient energy in the upper ocean to support intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Ann will move north of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Ann is surrounded by drier more stable air and the drier air is the factor that will inhibit intensification.  So far, the circulation around Ann has kept the drier air outside the tropical cyclone.  If the drier air remains outside the circulation, then Tropical Cyclone Ann would have a chance to strengthen.  However, if the drier air gets pulled into the circulation, then Ann will weaken.  The higher probability is that Tropical Cyclone Ann could maintain its intensity or weaken slowly during the next day or two depending on what happens to the drier air.

Tropical Cyclone Ann will move north of an area of high pressure, which will steer the tropical cyclone toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track Ann will approach the Cape York Peninsula north of Coen in less than 48 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Ann could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to northern Queensland.