Tag Archives: Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Seth Spins Northeast of Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone Seth was spinning northeast of Brisbane, Australia on Friday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Seth was located at latitude 22.6°S and longitude 157.7°E which put it about 465 miles (745 km) northeast of Brisbane, Australia. Seth was moving toward the southeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Seth strengthened on Friday morning, but then it weakened later in the day. An upper level ridge centered northeast of Australia and an upper level trough over eastern Australia were interacting to produce strong northwesterly winds over the Coral Sea on Friday night. Those winds were blowing toward the top of Seth’s circulation and they were causing moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear was causing an asymmetric distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone Seth. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands southeast of the center of Seth. Bands in the northwestern half of the tropical cyclone consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 155 miles (250 km) in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Seth. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the northern half of the circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Seth will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Seth will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. However, the upper level trough over eastern Australia and the upper level ridge over the Coral Sea will continue to produce strong northwesterly winds. Those winds will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The wind shear is likely to prevent Tropical Cyclone Seth from intensifying during the next 24 hours. There is a chance that the upper level winds could weaken in 24 hours, which might allow Seth to strengthen at that time.

The upper level trough and ridge will steer Tropical Cyclone Seth toward the south-southeast during the next 24 hours. The upper level trough could evolve into a cutoff low, which could pull Seth back toward the west during the second half of the weekend. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Seth could be east of Brisbane in 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Forms over Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone 03P formed over the Coral Sea southwest of the Solomon Islands on Saturday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone 03P was located at latitude 13.2°S and longitude 157.1°E which put it about 650 miles (1050 km) northwest of Poum, New Caledonia. Tropical Cyclone 03P was moving toward the south-southeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The circulation around a small low pressure system over the Coral Sea strengthened on Saturday into Tropical Cyclone 03P. More thunderstorms formed near the center of the tropical cyclone. Thunderstorms also became more numerous in bands revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The circulation around the tropical cyclone was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone 03P will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. The tropical cyclone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will be too small to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone 03P will intensify and it could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon within 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 03P will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean during the next several days. The high pressure system will steer the tropical cyclone toward the southeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 03P could approach the northwestern part of New Caledonia in 48 hours. The tropical cyclone is likely to be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it nears New Caledonia.

Tropical Cyclone Niran Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Cat. 5 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Niran rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the Coral Sea on Friday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Niran was located at latitude 19.4°S and longitude 160.2°E which put it about 505 miles (815 km) west-northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia. Niran was moving toward the east-southeast at 28 m.p.h. (44 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (315 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 922 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Niran continued to intensify rapidly over the Coral Sea on Friday morning even though it was moving quickly toward the east-southeast. A small circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was at the center of Niran. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Niran. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

There was a large area of strong winds around Tropical Cyclone Niran. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Niran. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 250 miles (400 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Niran was 35.0. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 24.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 59.3 Niran was capable of causing widespread catastrophic damage.

Tropical Cyclone Niran will move through an environment capable of supporting an intense tropical cyclone during the next 12 hours. Niran will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 29°C. It will move under the axis an upper level ridge over the Coral Sea. The winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Niran could maintain its intensity during the next 12 hours. Niran will begin to weaken when its circulation begins to interact with New Caledonia. An upper level trough near eastern Australia will approach Tropical Cyclone Niran in about 24 hours. The trough will produce northwesterly winds and the wind shear will begin to increase. More shear will cause Niran to start to weaken more quickly on Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone Niran will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the tropical South Pacific Ocean. The high will steer Niran quickly toward the southeast during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Niran will begin to affect New Caledonia within 12 hours. Niran will be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches New Caledonia. The track of Tropical Cyclone Niran will cause it to bring very strong winds, a significant storm surge and heavy rain to all of New Caledonia. Tropical Cyclone Niran will be capable of causing widespread catastrophic damage to New Caledonia. Niran could cause a storm surge of up to 16 feet (5 meters) along portions of the coast where the wind blows water toward the shore. It will drop heavy rain and flash floods are likely to occur.

Tropical Cyclone Niran Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Niran intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Thursday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Niran was located at latitude 17.2°S and longitude 155.6°E which put it about 580 miles (935 km) east of Cairns, Australia. Niran was moving toward the east-southeast at 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 946 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Niran intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the Coral Sea west of New Caledonia on Thursday night. A small circular eye with a diameter of 14 miles (22 km) was present at the center of Niran. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Niran. Storms around the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

There was a large area of strong winds around Tropical Cyclone Niran. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Niran. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 250 miles (400 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Niran was 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 25.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 49.1. Tropical Cyclone Niran was capable of causing widespread major damage.

Tropical Cyclone Niran will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Niran will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 29°C. It will move under the axis an upper level ridge over the Coral Sea. The winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Niran could continue to intensify during the next 12 hours. An upper level trough near eastern Australia will approach Niran in about 24 hours. The trough will produce northwesterly winds and the wind shear will begin to increase. More shear will cause Niran to start to weaken on Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone Niran will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the tropical South Pacific Ocean. The high will steer Niran toward the southeast during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Niran could approach New Caledonia in 24 hours. Niran could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it approaches New Caledonia. Tropical Cyclone Niran will be capable of causing widespread major damage to New Caledonia. Niran will also drop heavy rain and flash floods are likely to occur.

Tropical Cyclone Niran Strengthens over the Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Niran strengthened over the Coral Sea on Wednesday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Niran was located at latitude 15.4°S and longitude 149.2°E which put it about 225 miles (365 km) east-northeast of Cairns, Australia. Niran was moving toward the east at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 961 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Niran continued to intensify over the Coral Sea on Wednesday. A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) developed at the center of Niran. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Niran. The strongest rainbands were in the northern half of Niran. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Niran expanded in size on Wednesday. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Niran. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 230 miles (370 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Niran was 16.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 19.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 36.2.

Tropical Cyclone Niran will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Niran will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 29°C. It will move under an upper level ridge over the Coral Sea. The winds are weak in the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Niran will continue to intensify during the next 24 hours. It is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Niran will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the tropical South Pacific Ocean. The high will steer Niran toward the southeast during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Niran could approach New Caledonia in 48 hours. Niran could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it approaches New Caledonia.

Tropical Cyclone Niran Develops over Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Niran developed over the Coral Sea east of Queensland on Monday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Niran was located at latitude 15.4°S and longitude 147.0°E which put it about 175 miles (285 km) northeast of Cairns, Australia. Niran was moving toward the northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the Coral Sea east of Queensland strengthened on Monday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Niran. The circulation around Niran was organizing gradually. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Niran. Bands in the eastern half of the tropical cyclone consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the west of Niran. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Niran will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Niran will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 29°C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the Coral Sea. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Niran. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear and they are contributing to the current asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. The wind shear will slow the rate of intensification. Tropical Cyclone Niran will intensify and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon within 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Niran will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next day or so. Niran could make a slow loop over the Coral Sea east of Queensland during the next 24 hours. A high pressure system over the tropical South Pacific Ocean will strengthen during the week. The high will start to steer Tropical Cyclone Niran toward the southeast on Wednesday. On its anticipated track Niran could approach New Caledonia during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Bina Develops Northwest of Fiji

Tropical Cyclone Bina developed northwest of Fiji on Sunday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bina was located at latitude 14.0°S and longitude 175.7°E which put it about 315 miles (510 km) northwest of Labasa, Fiji. Bina was moving toward the southeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

As Tropical Cyclone Ana was moving away from Fiji, Tropical Cyclone Bina developed northwest of that nation. A low pressure system northwest of Fiji strengthened on Sunday and the Fiji Meteorological Service designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Bina. More thunderstorms formed near the center of Bina. Those storms generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Bina was small. Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Bina.

Tropical Cyclone Bina will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Bina will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. An upper level trough east of Australia will produce northwesterly winds which blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and they will inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Bina will likely maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough will steer Tropical Cyclone Bina toward the southeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Bina could reach Vanua Levu within 18 hours. Tropical Cyclone Bina will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Fiji during the next 36 hours. The stormy conditions will make efforts on Viti Levu and Vanua Levu to recover from Tropical Cyclone Ana more difficult. Heavy rain could make floods caused by Ana to become worse.

Elsewhere over the Southwest Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Ana was moving away from Fiji and Tropical Cyclone Lucas was strengthening over the Coral Sea. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ana was located at latitude 19.9°S and longitude 179.7°E which put it about 105 miles (17 km) south of Suva, Fiji. Ana was moving toward the south-southeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Lucas was located at latitude 13.2°S and longitude 156.0°E which put it about 870 miles (1405 km) west-northwest of New Caledonia. Lucas was moving toward the east at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb. Tropical Cyclone Lucas is forecast to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon. It could affect New Caledonia and Vanuatu in a few days.

Tropical Cyclone Gretel Forms Over Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Gretel formed over the Coral Sea east of Australia on Saturday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gretel was located at latitude 18.2°S and longitude 158.7°E which put it about 380 miles (615 km) west-northwest of Poum, New Caledonia.  Gretel was moving toward the east-southeast at 22 m.p.h. (36 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

The circulation around an area of low pressure over the Coral Sea became better organized on Saturday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Gretel.  The circulation around Gretel was still organizing.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing in all parts of the circulation.  Thunderstorms near the center of Gretel began to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Gretel will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next day or so.  Gretel will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move under a small upper level ridge.  The winds are weaker in the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Gretel will intensify during the next 24 to 36 hours and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Gretel will move around the southwestern portion of a subtropical high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Gretel toward the east-southeast.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Gretel could pass just west of New Caledonia during the next 18 to 30 hours.  Gretel will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to New Caledonia on Sunday.  The center of Tropical Cyclone Gretel could approach Norfolk Island in about 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Uesi Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Uesi strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Coral Sea northwest of New Caledonia on Monday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Uesi was located at latitude 18.4°S and longitude 162.5°E which put it about 125 miles (200 km) northwest of Poum, New Caledonia.  Uesi was moving toward the south at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Uesi exhibited evidence of being the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Monday.  Microwave satellite imagery showed indications of the development of an eye in the lower and middle levels of Uesi.  The tops of tall thunderstorms around the center of circulation obscured the developing eye on conventional visible and infrared satellite images.  A ring of strong thunderstorms around the center of Tropical Cyclone Uesi was producing the strongest wind speeds.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Uesi.  The strongest rainbands were in the southern half of the circulation.  Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center in the southern half of the circulation and out 100 miles (160 km) in the northern half.

Tropical Cyclone Uesi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Uesi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will produce northerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be great enough to prevent further intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Uesi will likely continue to strengthen during the next 24 to 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Uesi will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean during the next several days.  The high pressure system will steer Uesi toward the south.  On its anticipated track the core of Tropical Cyclone Uesi will pass near and just to the west of northern New Caledonia during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Rainbands on the eastern side of Uesi could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of New Caledonia.

Tropical Cyclone Uesi Develops Rapidly over Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Uesi developed rapidly over the Coral Sea on Sunday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Uesi was located at latitude 16.6°S and longitude 163.6°E which put it about 230 miles (370 km) north of New Caledonia. Ueusi was moving toward the south at 7 m.p.h, (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Uesi organized quickly on Sunday.  The inner end of a band of showers and thunderstorms wrapped around the western side of the center of circulation.  More thunderstorms formed in other rainbands.  The strongest bands were in the eastern and southern parts of the circulation.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Uesi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours.  Uesi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will produce northerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will mot be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Uesi is likely to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 12 to 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Uesi will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Uesi toward the south during the next several days.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Uesi could approach the northern end of New Caledonia in about 48 hours.  Uesi will likely be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it nears New Caledonia.