Tag Archives: Leeward Islands

Cindy Weakens to a Tropical Wave

Former Tropical Storm Cindy weakened to a tropical wave over the Atlantic Ocean south-southeast of Bermuda on Sunday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Wave Cindy was located at latitude 22.8°N and longitude 60.0°W which put it about 375 miles (605 km) north-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Former Tropical Storm Cindy was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1011 mb.

An upper level trough over the western Atlantic Ocean produced southwesterly winds that blew toward the top of former Tropical Storm Cindy’s circulation. Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear. The wind shear blew the tops off of new thunderstorms that started to form near the center of circulation. Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the eastern half of the circulation around former Tropical Storm Cindy. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force were occurring about 70 miles (110 km) northeast of the center of circulation. Winds in the other parts of former Tropical Storm Cindy were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Former Tropical Storm Cindy will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Cindy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. However, the upper level trough over the western Atlantic will cause strong vertical wind shear to continue for several more days. Former Tropical Storm Cindy could move into an area where there is less vertical wind shear in a couple of days. There is a slight chance that former Tropical Storm Cindy could strengthen when the wind shear decreases during the middle of the week.

Tropical Storm Fiona Prompts Warnings for Leeward Islands

A potential threat posed by Tropical Storm Fiona prompted the issuance of Tropical Storm Warnings for some of the Leeward Islands. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 54.3°W which put it about 495 miles (800 km) east of the Leeward Islands. Fiona was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat and Anguilla. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Guadeloupe, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy.

Tropical Storm Fiona was being affected by strong vertical wind shear on Thursday morning. The center of Fiona was surrounded by a swirl of showers and lower clouds. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern edge of Fiona’s circulation. Tropical Storm Fiona was under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The upper level ridge was producing westerly winds that were blowing across the top of Fiona’s circulation. Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear and the wind shear was blowing the tops off of many of the thunderstorms that start to develop. In spite of the vertical wind shear, the low level circulation around Tropical Storm Fiona was still well organized. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Fiona’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Fiona will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Fiona will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. However, the upper level ridge over the tropical Atlantic Ocean will continue to cause vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Storm Fiona could weaken if the upper level winds get stronger. The upper level winds could be weaker when Fiona moves over the northeastern Caribbean Sea during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Fiona will move around the southern side of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fiona toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Fiona could approach the Leeward Islands on Friday afternoon. Fiona could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the northern Leeward Islands. Tropical Storm Fiona could be southeast of Puerto Rico by Saturday evening.

TD 7 Strengthens to Tropical Storm Fiona, Watches Issued for Leeward Islands

Former Tropical Depression Seven strengthened to Tropical Storm Fiona on Wednesday evening and Tropical Storm Watches were issued for the Leeward Islands. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was located at latitude 16.7°N and longitude 52.0°W which put it about 650 miles (1045 km) east of the Leeward Islands. Fiona was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat and Anguilla.

Remotely sensed data gathered by satellites indicated that the circulation around former Tropical Depression Seven had strengthened on Wednesday evening and the National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Fiona. The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Fiona was asymmetric. Almost all of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of Fiona’s circulation. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms in the eastern half of the circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Fiona. The winds in the western half of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Fiona will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Fiona will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fiona’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear and the wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Storm Fiona could intensify if the upper level winds weaken.

Tropical Storm Fiona will move around the southern side of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fiona toward the west during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Fiona could approach the Leeward Islands on Friday afternoon. Fiona could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the northern Leeward Islands.

Tropical Depression Seven Forms East of the Leeward Islands

Tropical Depression Seven formed east of the Leeward Islands on Wednesday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Seven was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 49.6°W which put it about 805 miles (1300 km) east of the Leeward Islands. The tropical depression was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

A low pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean east of the Leeward Islands strengthened on Wednesday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Seven. The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Depression Seven was asymmetric. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of the tropical depression. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms in the eastern half of the circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Seven will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical depression. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Depression Seven is likely to strengthen to a tropical storm.

Tropical Depression Seven will move around the southern side of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the tropical depression toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Seven could approach the Leeward Islands on Friday afternoon. It could be a tropical storm when it approaches those islands.

Tropical Wave West of Africa Watched for Development

A tropical wave over the Atlantic Ocean west of Africa was being watched for development on Monday afternoon. The tropical wave was designated as Invest 97L on Monday. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of the tropical wave was located at latitude 11.7°N and longitude 22.7°W which put it about 230 miles (350 km) south of the Cabo Verde Islands. The tropical wave was moving toward the west at 19 m.p.h. (30 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

A tropical wave that moved over the Atlantic Ocean west of Africa during the weekend was being monitored for possible development of a tropical depression on Monday afternoon. The tropical wave exhibited a typical structure. There was no center of circulation evident in the lower levels of the atmosphere. There were linear bands of showers and thunderstorms that were moving with the tropical wave. Thunderstorms near the axis of the wave were generating upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical wave.

The tropical wave will move through an environment favorable for the development of a tropical depression during the next several days. The tropical wave will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge that extends from the west coast of Africa to the Caribbean Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge. The tropical wave will move along the southern side of a subtropical pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The subtropical high is producing strong easterly winds in the lower level of the atmosphere. The strong low level winds may cause vertical wind shear in the lower levels of the atmosphere, which could inhibit the formation of a tropical depression. The National Hurricane Center is indicating that there is a probability of 40% of the formation of a tropical depression during the next five days.

The subtropical high pressure system will steer the tropical wave quickly toward the west-northwest during the next few days. On its anticipated track the tropical wave could approach the northern Leeward Islands in a few days. It could be a tropical depression or tropical storm by that time.

Tropical Storm Peter Passes Northeast of Leeward Islands

Tropical Storm Peter passed northeast of the Leeward Islands on Monday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Peter was located at latitude 19.5°N and longitude 60.9°W which put it about 170 miles (275 km) northeast of the Leeward Islands. Peter was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

An upper level trough north of Puerto Rico and an upper level ridge east of the Leeward Islands were interacting to produce strong southwesterly winds that were blowing across the circulation around Tropical Storm Peter. Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear. The low level center of circulation was clearly evident on visible satellite images and it was surrounded by showers and lower clouds. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the eastern and northern periphery of the circulation around Tropical Storm Peter. Bands in the western and southern parts of Peter consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Peter’s circulation. The winds in the other parts of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Peter will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Peter will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. However, the upper level trough and the upper level ridge will continue to produce strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Storm Peter could weaken gradually during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Peter will move around the southern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Peter toward the west-northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Peter will pass north of the Northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Rose moved away from the Cabo Verde Islands. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Rose was located at latitude 17.3°N and longitude 33.4°W which put it about 620 miles (1000 km) west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Rose was moving toward the northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Tropical Depression 16 Strengthens to Tropical Storm Peter

Former Tropical Depression Sixteen strengthened to Tropical Storm Peter on Sunday morning. At 9:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Peter was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 56.0°W which put it about 470 miles (755 km) east of the Northern Leeward Islands. Peter was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

Infrared satellite images and satellite derived scatterometer estimates of surface winds indicated that former Tropical Depression Sixteen had strengthened on Sunday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Peter. Early morning visible satellite images revealed that strong vertical wind shear was affecting Tropical Storm Peter. An upper level trough north-northeast of Puerto Rico and an upper level ridge east of the Leeward Islands were interacting to produce strong southwesterly winds that were blowing across Peter’s circulation. The low level center of circulation was clearly visible on those images and it was surrounded by showers and lower clouds. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the eastern and northern periphery of the circulation around Tropical Storm Peter. Bands in the western and southern parts of Peter consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Storm Peter will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Peter will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. However, the upper level trough and the upper level ridge will continue to produce strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Storm Peter could strengthen a little during the next 24 hours. The upper level winds are forecast to get stronger on Monday. Increased vertical wind shear could cause Peter to weaken back to a tropical depression.

Tropical Storm Peter will move around the southern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the depression toward the west-northwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Peter could be northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands by Monday morning.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Depression Seventeen formed southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Seventeen was located at latitude 11.8°N and longitude 28.21°W which put it about 330 miles (530 km) southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. The tropical depression was moving toward the north-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were’ wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb. The tropical depression is forecast to move away from the Cabo Verde Islands and to strengthen to a tropical storm.

Hurricane Larry Intensifies to a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Larry intensified to a major hurricane on Friday evening. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Larry was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 43.3°W which put it about 1230 miles (1980 km) east of the Leeward Islands. Larry was moving toward the west-northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h. (220 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 965 mb.

Hurricane Larry continued to intensify on Friday evening and the wind speed increased to that of a major hurricane. An eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was at the center of Hurricane Larry. The eye was surround be a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Larry. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane in all directions. The removal of mass was causing the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Larry was becoming more symmetrical. Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Larry. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Larry was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 33.1.

Hurricane Larry will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Larry will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Larry will continue to intensify during the next 36 hours. Larry is likely to strengthen to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale during the weekend.

Hurricane Larry will move around the southern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next 36 hours. The high will steer Larry toward the west-northwest during that time period. On its anticipated track Hurricane Larry will move in the general direction of Bermuda.

Hurricane Larry Strengthens to Cat. 2

Hurricane Larry strengthened to Category 2 over the Atlantic Ocean on Friday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Larry was located at latitude 15.0°N and longitude 42.0°W which put it about 1320 miles (2125 km) east of the Leeward Islands. Larry was moving toward the west-northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

Hurricane Larry intensified to Category 2 on Friday afternoon. A small circular eye was present at the center of Larry. The eye was surround be a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Larry. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Larry. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Larry will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Larry will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Larry will intensify during the next 36 hours. Larry is likely to strengthen to a major hurricane during the weekend.

Hurricane Larry will move around the southern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next 36 hours. The high will steer Larry toward the west-northwest during that time period. On it anticipated track Hurricane Larry will move in the general direction of Bermuda.

Larry Strengthens to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Larry strengthened to a hurricane over the eastern Atlantic Ocean early on Thursday. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Larry was located at latitude 13.0°N and longitude 32.3°W which put it about 545 miles (875 km) west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Larry was moving toward the west at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Larry intensified quickly during the past 24 hours and it reached hurricane intensity early on Thursday morning. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Hurricane Larry and an eye appeared intermittently on visible and microwave satellite images. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Larry. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Larry. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Larry will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days. Larry will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27.5˚C. It will move under the southern side of an upper level ridge over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Larry’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The winds in the lower levels will also blow from the east and so there will not be a lot of vertical wind shear. Hurricane Larry will strengthen during the next 48 hours and it could intensify to a major hurricane. Hurricane could undergo a period of rapid intensification once an inner core with an eye and an eyewall are fully formed.

Hurricane Larry will move around the southern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high will steer Larry toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track Hurricane Larry will move farther away from the Cabo Verde islands. Larry could be east of the northern Leeward Islands by the weekend.

Elsewhere, the remnants of former Hurricane Ida interacted with a slow moving cold front to cause widespread urban and flash floods in the northeastern U.S. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of the remnants of former Hurricane Ida was located at latitude 41.4°N and longitude 71.6°W which put it about 40 miles (65 km) southwest of Providence, Rhode Island. Ida was moving toward the northeast at 28 m.p.h. (43 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb. There were reports of urban and flash floods in central and eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey and southeastern New York including New York City. There were reports of tornadoes in Maryland and New Jersey.