Tag Archives: SH14

Tropical Cyclone Anika Moves Back over Water

The center of Tropical Cyclone Anika moved back over water on Monday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Anika was located at latitude 16.7°S and longitude 122.5°E which put it about 85 miles (140 km) north of Broome, Australia. Anika was moving toward the west-southwest at 8 m.p.h (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Anika moved back over water near Beagle Bay on Monday night. New thunderstorms began to develop near the center of Anika after the center moved back over water. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands southwest of the center of circulation and northeast of the center. Bands in other parts of Tropical Cyclone Anika consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Anika began to generated more upper level divergence.

Tropical Cyclone Anika will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Anika toward the southwest during that time period. Anika will move toward the south after it reaches the western end of the high pressure system in 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Anika could make landfall on the coast of Western Australia between Bidyadanga and De Grey in 42 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Anika will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Anika will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move through are region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Anika will strengthen during the next 24 hours. However a portion of Anika’s circulation will still be over land, which will inhibit intensification.

Tropical Cyclone Anika will continue to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of the coast of Western Australia. A Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Beagle Bay to Bidyadanga. The Warning includes Broome. A Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Bidyadanga to De Grey. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Flood Watches are in effect for the Fitzroy River, the De Grey River and the Sandy Desert.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Vernon continued to spin east-southeast of Diego Garcia. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vernon was located at latitude 14.6°S and longitude 87.0°E which put it about 1115 miles (1785 km) east-southeast of Diego Garcia. Vernon was moving toward the south-southwest at 4 m.p.h (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Anika Moves along Western Australia Coast

Tropical Cyclone Anika moved along the coast of Western Australia on Sunday afternoon. At 1:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Anika was located at latitude 15.2°S and longitude 125.7°E which put it about 90 miles (145 km) southwest of Kalumburu, Australia. Anika was moving toward the southwest at 8 m.p.h (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Anika moved along the coast of Western Australia on Sunday afternoon. The center of Anika’s circulation was still over land. The strongest winds were occurring in the northwestern quadrant of Tropical Cyclone Anika, which was still over water. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the northwestern quadrant of Anika. The winds over land were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

A Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Troughton Island to Beagle Bay. The Warning included Cape Leveque and Derby. A Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Beagle Bay to Bidyadanga. The Watch included Broome.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Anika remained well organized even though the center was over land. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern side of the center of Anika. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in a bands in the western side of the circulation. There was also a strong band in the eastern periphery of Tropical Cyclone Anika. Bands in other parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Anika will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high pressure system will steer Anika toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Anika will continue to move along the coast of Western Australia. Anika will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to places near the coast. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Flood Warnings are in effect for the North Kimberly District and the West Kimberly District. Flood Watches are in effect for the Sandy Desert and for the Fitzroy River. The center of Anika could move back over water southwest of Kuri Bay on Monday.

Tropical Cyclone Anika is not likely to strengthen while the center is over land. However, since a portion of Anika’s circulation will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C, it could maintain its current intensity. Tropical Cyclone Anika will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Anika could strengthen again, if the center of circulation moves back over water.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Vernon weakened east-southeast of Diego Garcia. At 1:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vernon was located at latitude 12.4°S and longitude 88.3°E which put it about 1140 miles (1835 km) east-southeast of Diego Garcia. Vernon was moving toward the east at 13 m.p.h (09 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Vernon Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Vernon rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean on Friday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vernon was located at latitude 14.6°S and longitude 90.3°E which put it about 245 miles (725 km) west-southwest of Cocos Island. Vernon was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h (29 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Vernon rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean west-southwest of Cocos Island on Friday night. A small eye with a diameter of 10 miles (16 km) was at the center of Tropical Cyclone Vernon. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Vernon’s circulation. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Vernon was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Vernon. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Vernon was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 30.5.

Tropical Cyclone Vernon will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Vernon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge that is west of Australia. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Vernon will continue to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Vernon will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Vernon toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Vernon will move farther away from Cocos Island.

Tropical Cyclone Vernon Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Vernon rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean on Friday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vernon was located at latitude 14.6°S and longitude 92.8°E which put it about 290 miles (465 km) southwest of Cocos Island. Vernon was moving toward the west-southwest at 14 m.p.h (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Vernon rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean southwest of Cocos Island on Friday morning. A small circular eye with a diameter of 10 miles (16 km) formed at the center of Vernon’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Vernon. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The circulation around Vernon was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Vernon will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Vernon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge that is west of Australia. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Vernon will continue to intensify during the next 24 hours and it could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Vernon will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Vernon toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Vernon will move farther away from Cocos Island.

Tropical Cyclone Damien Brings Wind and Rain to Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Damien brought wind and rain to Western Australia on Saturday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Damien was located at latitude 21.7°S and longitude 117.0°E which put it about 60 miles (100 km) south-southeast of Karratha, Australia.  Damien was moving toward the south-southeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

A Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast of Western Australia from Whim Creek to Mardie including Karratha and Dampier.  Flood Warnings were in effect for the Fortescue River and the Coastal Pilbara Rivers.  A Flood Watch was in effect for the Pilbara and Gascoyne District.  An Initial Flood Warning was issued for the Ashburton River.

A weather station at Karratha reported a sustained wind speed of 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h or 78 kt) when the core of Tropical Cyclone Damien passed over it.  The station also reported a wind gust of 114 m.p.h. (183 km/h or 99 kt).  The weather station at Karratha measured 6.14 inches (156 mm) of rain during the passage of Damien.  The minimum pressure was 957 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Damien will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high will steer Damien toward the south-southeast during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Damien could approach Tom Price and Paraburdoo in about 12 hours.  Damien will weaken slowly as it moves farther inland.  It will continue to produce strong winds capable of causing damage during the next 12 to 24 hours  Tropical Cyclone Damien could also drop locally heavy rain over parts of Western Australia during the next several days.

Strengthening Tropical Cyclone Damien Nears Western Australia

Strengthening Tropical Cyclone Damien neared the coast of Western Australia on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Damien was located at latitude 19.4°S and longitude 116.6°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) north-northwest of Karratha, Australia.  Damien was moving toward the south-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 963 mb.

A Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast of Western Australia from De Grey to Onslow including Dampier, Karratha and Port Hedland.  Initial Flood Warnings were in effect for the Coastal Pilbara Rivers.  A Flood Watch was in effect for the Pilbara and Gascoyne District.

Tropical Cyclone Damien continued to strengthen quickly on Friday.  A circular eye developed at the center of Damien.  A narrow ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Damien.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Damien was relatively small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Damien was 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 26.4.  Damien was capable of causing localized serious damage.

Tropical Cyclone Damien will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Damien will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over Australia.  The ridge will produce northerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent Tropical Cyclone Damien from strengthening.  Damien could intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane before it reaches the coast of Western Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Damien will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high will steer Damien toward the south during the next several days.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Damien could make landfall on the coast of Western Australia near Dampier and Karratha in about 12 hours.  Damien will be capable of causing serious wind damage.  It will also produce a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) between Port Hedland and Dampier where the wind blows the water toward the coast.  The highest storm surge will occur near where the center makes landfall.  Tropical Cyclone Damien will also drop locally heavy rain and flash floods could occur in parts of Western Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Damien Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Damien strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Thursday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Damien was located at latitude 18.0°S and longitude 117.2°E which put it about 190 miles (310 km) north of Karratha, Australia.  Damien was moving toward the southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

A Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast of Western Australia from Wallal Downs to Mardie including Port Hedland, Karratha and Dampier.  A Watch was in effect for the coast from Mardia to Onslow.

Tropical Cyclone Damien organized quickly on Thursday.  Microwave satellite imagery suggested that a small eye could be forming at the center of Damien.  A small ring of thunderstorms surrounded the forming eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Damien.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Damien will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Damien will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over Australia.  The ridge will produce northeasterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Damien will strengthen during the next 24 hours and it could rapidly intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Damien will move around the western end of a high pressure system centered over Australia.  The high will steer Damien toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Damien could make landfall on the coast of Western Australia in the vicinity of Dampier, Karratha and Wickham in about 24 hours.  Damien could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches the coast.  It will produce strong gusty winds.  Tropical Cyclone Damien will also drop locally heavy rain and flash floods could occur in some locations.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Francisco weakened east of Rodrigues.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Francisco was located at latitude 19.3°S and longitude 71.7°E which put it about 565 miles (910 km) east of Port Mathurin, Mauritius.  Francisco was moving toward the southeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb

Tropical Cyclone Develops Near Western Australia, Watch Issued

A tropical cyclone currently designated as 14S (SH14) developed near the coast of Western Australia on Wednesday and a Watch was issued for a portion of the coast.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 14S was located at latitude 17.1°S and longitude 120.2°E which put it about 250 miles (400 km) north-northeast of Port Hedland, Australia.  The tropical cyclone was moving toward the west-southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.  A Watch was issued for a portion of the coast of Western Australia from Wallal Downs to Onslow including Port Hedland, Karratha and Dampier.

A Tropical Low previously located over Western Australia moved westward over the South Indian Ocean on Wednesday and it strengthened into Tropical Cyclone 14S.  The circulation around the tropical cyclone was still organizing on Wednesday night.  More thunderstorms were forming near the center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing and the bands were revolving around the center of the tropical cyclone.  Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone 14S will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours.  The tropical cyclone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move under the northwestern part of an upper level ridge centered over northern Australia.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone 14S will continue to intensify and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon in 24 to 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 14S will move around the northwestern end of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high will steer the tropical cyclone toward the west-southwest during the next 12 to 24 hours.  Tropical Cyclone 14S will turn more toward the south on Friday when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 14S could approach the coast of Western Australia between Port Hedland and Karratha in about 48 hours.  It will likely be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it approaches the coast.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Francisco formed northeast of Rodrigues.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Francisco was located at latitude 17.8°S and longitude 70.4°E which put it about 485 miles (785 km) east-northeast of Port Mathurin, Mauritius.  Francisco was moving toward the east-southeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Eliakim Stalls and Drops Heavy Rain on Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Eliakim stalled over Madagascar on Friday night and it was dropping heavy rain on northern Madagascar.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Eliakim was located at latitude 16.0°S and longitude 49.5°E which put it about 300 miles (480 km) northeast of Antananarivo, Madagascar.  Eliakim was stationary.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The strongest winds were occurring in rainbands over the Indian Ocean.  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

The steering currents weakened on Friday as Tropical Cyclone Eliakim was rounding the western end of a subtropical ridge over the Indian Ocean.  Eliakim has moved little during the past 12 hours.  The center of circulation was over land close to the east coast of Madagascar near Mananara.  Since Tropical Cyclone Eliakim was nearly stationary, bands of showers and thunderstorms were dropping heavy rain on parts of Madagascar.  The heavy rain was creating the potential for serious flooding, especially in areas of steep terrain.

The subtropical ridge is forecast to strengthen during the weekend.  When the ridge strengthens the steering currents will start to move Tropical Cyclone Eliakim toward the south.  On its anticipated track Eliakim is forecast to move almost straight southward near the east coast of Madagascar.  Tropical Cyclone Eliakim will drop heavy rain on parts of Madagascar for several more days and it could cause very serious flooding in some places.

Tropical Cyclone Eliakim Makes Landfall on Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Eliakim made landfall on the east coast of Madagascar on Thursday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Eliakim was located at latitude 16.1°S and longitude 50.6°E which put it about 60 miles (95 km) south of Ambohitralanana, Madagascar.  Eliakim was moving toward the west-southwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Eliakim continued to strengthen as it approached Madagascar.  A nearly complete eyewall wrapped around a large circular eye.  The eyewall was weakest south of the center of circulation.  Several bands of showers an thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Eliakim.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away in all directions.

Tropical Cyclone Eliakim will gradually weaken after the center of circulation moves over eastern Madagascar.  Eliakim will bring gusty winds, but locally heavy rain will be the major threat.  Tropical Cyclone Eliakim is rounding the western end of a subtropical ridge and it will start moving toward the south within 12 to 24 hours.  On its anticipated track the center of Elaikim will move over eastern Madagascar and it will stay east of Antananarivo.  The heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in the steep terrain in eastern Madagascar.