Tag Archives: Philippines

Powerful Typhoon Sarika Makes Landfall in Luzon

Powerful Typhoon Sarika made landfall in Luzon near Baler on Saturday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Sarika was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 122.3°E which put it near Baler, Philippines and about 130 miles (210 km) east-northeast of Manila.  Sarika was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 941 mb.

Sarika is a powerful, well organized typhoon.  It has a circular eye surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms.  Additional rainbands are rotating around the core of Sarika.  The core of Typhoon Sarika is generating well developed upper level divergence which is pumping out mass in all directions.  Typhoon Sarika was intensifying rapidly until it made landfall.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Sarika is 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 17.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 37.6.  These indices indicate that Typhoon Sarika is capable of causing regional major wind damage.  Typhoon Sarika will also generate a storm surge along the coast of Luzon north of the eye where the wind will push water toward the coast.  Sarika will also produce heavy rain over northern Luzon which will create a risk of flash flooding and mudslides.

A subtropical ridge is steering Typhoon Marika toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track across Luzon the center of Typhoon Sarika will pass near San Jose City,  Baguio and Dagupan.  The center of Sarika could emerge over the South China Sea near the Lingayen Gulf.  The core of Typhoon Sarika will move across the Sierra Madre Mountains and the Cordillera Central.  Where winds blow up the slopes of the mountains, rising motion will be stronger and the rainfall will be heavier.  The mountains will also disrupt the airflow in the lower part of Sarika’s circulation and the typhoon will weaken.

It could take the center of Typhoon Sarika about 12 hours to move across Luzon.  The environment of the Sea China Sea will  be favorable for intensification.  The Sea Surface Temperature is warm and there will be little vertical wind shear.  If the core of the circulation remains reasonably intact, then Typhoon Sarika could intensify again while it moves across the South China Sea.  Sarika could eventually move near Hainan Island and into northern Vietnam in a few days.

Typhoon Sarika Near Catanduanes Island, Threatens Luzon

The center of Typhoon Sarika is located near Catanduanes Island and Sarika poses a serious threat to Luzon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Sarika was located at latitude 14.4°N and longitude 124.8°E which put it about 280 miles (455 km) east of Manila, Philippines.  Sarika was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

The circulation of Typhoon Sarika is well organized.  An eye has appeared at times on conventional and microwave satellite imagery.  A primary rainband wrapped around the eye and strong thunderstorms are occurring in the eyewall.  Additional, well formed rainbands are rotating around the core of the circulation.  The convection around the core is generating well developed upper level divergence which is pumping away mass.

Typhoon Sarika is moving through a very favorable environment.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Sarika will continue to intensify as long as the center stays over the water and it could intensify rapidly now that the circulation is well organized.

A subtropical ridge north of Sarika is steering the typhoon toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Sarika will remain north of Catanduanes Island.  It will pass just to the north of Daet and Labo on Saturday.  The center of Typhoon Sarika could be near or just to the north of the Polillo Islands in 12-16 hours.  Sarika could make a landfall near Baler on Luzon in 18-24 hours.

Sarika is a well organized intensifying typhoon.  It could bring strong winds to portions of northern Luzon.  Typhoon Sarika will also bring very heavy rain and create the potential for flash floods and mudslides.  Sarika will generate a storm surge in places where the wind blows the water toward the coast.

Intensifying Tropical Storm Nida Nears Northern Philippines

Tropical Storm Nida intensified on Saturday as it slowly approached the northern portion of Luzon in the Philippines.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT (2100 UTC) the center of of Tropical Storm Nida was located at latitude 16.5°N and longitude 123.8°E which put it about 245 miles (395 km) east-northeast of Manila, Philippines.  Nida was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Nida has become increasingly well organized during the past 24 hours.  A primary rainband wraps about two thirds of the way around the western and southern sides of the center of circulation.  Additional spiral bands of thunderstorms are developing outside the core of the circulation.  Rising motion associated with the convection is generating upper level divergence which is pumping out mass and allowing the surface pressure to decrease.

Tropical Storm Nida is moving through an environment that is very favorable for further intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 31°C.  Nida is beneath an upper level ridge where the upper level winds are light and there is little vertical wind shear.  Very warm SSTs and little wind shear will allow the circulation of Tropical Storm Nida to consolidate further and it should continue to intensify.  Nida could intensify rapidly once an eye starts to form at the center of circulation.  Tropical Storm Nida will move near or over the northeastern part of Luzon.  Interaction with land could slow or temporarily stop the intensification.  However, Tropical Storm Nida should intensify further after it move wests of the Philippines.

A subtropical ridge north of Nida is steering the tropical storm toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Nida could move over the northern part of Luzon during the next 12 to 24 hours.  Nida could approach the area around Hong Kong as a typhoon in about 48 hours.

The primary threats posed by Tropical Storm Nida to the Philippines are locally heavy rain and flash floods.  Tropical Storm Nida could generate very heavy rain in locations where the circulation causes the wind to blow up the slopes of mountains.  Heavy rain falling on steep terrain in those locations could also cause flash flooding.  Nida could be a typhoon by the time it reaches the part of China near Hong Kong.  Nida will be capable of producing some wind damage and storm surge in addition to heavy rain and flooding when it reaches the coast of China.

Typhoon Melor Making Landfall on Mindoro as Equivalent of Cat. 4 Hurricane

Typhoon Melor intensified on Monday and it is making landfall on Mindoro in the Philippines as the equivalent of a Category 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Typhoon Melor was located at latitude 13.0°N and longitude 121.5°E which put it about 20 miles (32 km) southeast of Calapan and about 125 miles (205 km) south-southeast of Manila, Philippines.  Melor was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (230 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 170 m.p.h. (270 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 939 mb.

The core of Typhoon Melor passed just north of Samar and it quickly moved over the southeastern tip of Luzon.  Since the core stayed mainly over water, the circulation was not seriously disrupted by the increased friction that would have occurred if it had moved over land.  As a result, the core Typhoon Melor was intact when it moved over the Sibuyan Sea.  The circulation was able to extract energy from the warm water of Sibuyan Sea.  Melor was in an area where the upper level winds were light and there was little vertical wind shear.  The favorable environment allowed the typhoon to intensify further on Monday and Melor reached the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane.

The center of Typhoon Melor is making a landfall on the northeast coast of Mindoro.  Since the core of Melor will be moving over the island of Mindoro during the next few hours, the typhoon should start to weaken.  Melor will likely still be a typhoon when the center emerges over the South China Sea.  A strong surge of cold, dry air from the north will increase vertical wind shear around Typhoon Melor in 24 to 36 hours.  The dry air and increased wind shear will weaken Melor more rapidly after that occurs.

A subtropical ridge is steering Typhoon Melor toward the west and that general motion is expected to continue for another 24 to 36 hours.  After that time a weakening Melor will be steered by the flow closer to the surface, which should start to push it toward the southwest.

Typhoon Melor will bring very strong winds and heavy rain to Mindoro and southern Luzon.  The core of Melor should stay south of Manila, but locally heavy rain may be possible.  Heavy rain could also cause flooding and mudslides in areas of steep terrain.

Strong Typhoon Melor Along Coast of Samar Heading for SE Luzon

Typhoon Melor reached the Philippines on Sunday and it was moving along the north coast of Samar toward southeastern Luzon.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Typhoon Melor was located at latitude 12.6°N and longitude 125.3°E which put it about 20 miles (32 km) north of Laoang, Philippines and about 100 miles (160 km) east-southeast of Legaspi in southeastern Luzon.  Melor was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

Typhoon Melor has been moving through an environment favorable for intensification.  The Sea Surface Temperatures were near 28°C and there has been little vertical wind shear.  However, the circulation is starting to interact with the Philippines.  The southwestern quarter of the circulation is over Samar.  However, since the core of the circulation is north of the coast of Samar, Melor has remained a strong typhoon.  The circulation of Typhoon Melor is likely to retain much of its integrity until the center makes landfall in southeastern Luzon near Sorsogon.  Melor could remain at typhoon intensity for another 24 hours.  However, eventually the increased friction will slow the portions of the circulation that move over land and Melor will weaken to a tropical storm.

A subtropical ridge is steering Typhoon Melor slightly north of due west and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track the core of Typhoon Melor will pass north of Samar.  It will make landfall on extreme southeastern Luzon near Sorsogon in a few hours.  The center of Melor should pass south of Legaspi before moving over the Sibuyan Sea.  It could move south of Manila in about 36 hours as a tropical storm.

Melor is a strong typhoon and it could bring strong winds and heavy rain to northern Samar, southeastern Luzon, the islands around the Sibuyan Sea and Mindoro.  Heavy rain could cause flooding and trigger mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.

Melor Intensifies into a Typhoon and Threatens the Philippines

Tropical Storm Melor continued to intensify on Saturday and it reached typhoon status.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Typhoon Melor was located at latitude 12.0°N and longitude 129.7°E which put it about 320 miles (520 km) east of Laoang, Philippines.  Melor was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

The structure of Typhoon Melor is well organized and an eye has appeared intermittently on satellite imagery.  Melor has a small, well developed inner core surrounded by multiple spiral rainbands.  Thunderstorms near the core are generating upper level divergence, especially to the northeast of the center of circulation.  The upper level divergence is pumping out mass and causing the surface pressure to decrease.

Typhoon Melor is in an environment that is favorable for further intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is around 28°C.  An upper level ridge east of Melor is producing light southerly winds over the top of the typhoon, but the vertical wind shear is modest.  Melor is likely to continue to intensify on Sunday and it could become the equivalent of a major hurricane.

A subtropical ridge is steering Typhoon Melor toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for another two or three days.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Melor could be near the northeast coast of Samar in about 24 hours.  The center of Melor could make landfall over southeast Luzon in about 36 hours.  Melor could bring strong winds and heavy rain.  The heavy rain could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.

Tropical Storm Melor Forms West of Yap

A well defined center of circulation developed within an area of thunderstorms on Friday and the system was designated Tropical Storm Melor (28W).  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Melor was located at latitude 10.4°N and longitude 134.9°E which put it about 210 miles (335 km) north-northeast of Koror, Palau.  Melor was moving toward the west-northwest at 17 m.p.h. (27 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Tropical Storm Melor organized quickly on Friday.  A rainband wrapped about three quarters of the way around the center of circulation and an eyewall may be forming.  Outer rainbands are also rotating around the center of circulation.  Thunderstorms around the center of circulation are producing upper level divergence.

The environment around Tropical Storm Melor is favorable for further intensification.  It is over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are warm.  An upper level ridge is producing light southerly winds over the top of Melor, but there is only modest vertical wind shear.  Once a fully developed eye forms at the center of Melor, the tropical storm could intensify rapidly.  Melor could become a typhoon on Saturday and it could become the equivalent of a major hurricane in 48 to 73 hours.

A subtropical ridge north of Melor is steering the tropical storm toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue during the next two or three days.  On its anticipated track, Melor could reach the Central Philippines within 72 hours.  It could be a strong typhoon at that time.

Typhoon Koppu Still Affecting Northern Luzon

The center of Typhoon Koppu moved across northern Luzon on Sunday and it is still affecting that region.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Koppu was located at latitude 17.5°N and longitude 120.3°E which put it about 200 miles (320 km) north-northwest of Manila, Philippines and just west of the coast of northwestern Luzon.  Koppu was moving toward the north-northeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.

Passage over northern Luzon weakened Typhoon Koppu and its structure is asymmetrical.  Most of the stronger thunderstorms are located in the western half of the circulation.  Much of the eastern half of the circulation is still over Luzon and there are few thunderstorms there.  The center of circulation is just west of Luzon.  Since it is back over water, the core of the typhoon could start to reorganize.  Intensification will be limited because of the large proportion of the circulation which is over land.

Koppu is near the western end of a subtropical ridge, which is causing the typhoon to move slowly northward.  That motion could continue for another 24 to 36 hours.  Eventually the ridge is expected to strengthen and push Typhoon Koppu northward at a faster speed.  Typhoon Koppu will continue to bring heavy rain to parts of northern Luzon for another day or two.

Typhoon Koppu Continues to Intensify and Threaten Luzon

Typhoon Koppu continued to intensify on Friday and it maintained its steady course toward northern Luzon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Koppu was located at latitude 15.8°N and longitude 124.5°E which put it about 270 miles (435 km) east-northeast of Manila, Philippines.  Koppu was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

Typhoon Koppu is evolving into a large well organized typhoon.  An eye has formed at the center of the circulation and multiple rain bands spiral around the core of the typhoon.  Upper level divergence is pumping mass away from the center of circulation.  Koppu is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are light and there is not much vertical wind shear.  Koppu is likely to continue to intensify until it begins to interact with northern Luzon.

A subtropical ridge is steering Koppu toward the west and that steering pattern is expected to continue for another 24 to 36 hours.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Koppu will be very near the northeastern coast of Luzon in about 24 hours.  Koppu will bring strong winds, heavy rain and a storm surge to northern Luzon.  The large size of Koppu and its relatively slow movement means that it could produce very heavy rainfall.  Serious flooding and numerous mudslides are possible across northern Luzon.

Intensifying Typhoon Koppu Moving Toward Northern Luzon

Typhoon Koppu intensified on Thursday as it continued to move steadily toward Northern Luzon.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT the center of Typhoon Koppu was located at latitude 15.6°N and longitude 126.9°E which put it about 425 miles (685 km) east of Manila, Philippines.  Koppu was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

Typhoon Koppu is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds lessened on Thursday which decreased the vertical wind shear and allowed Koppu to intensify more quickly.  The core of the circulation consolidated and there are suggestions that an eyewall may be forming.  Koppu is expected to move through a favorable environment until it reaches northern Luzon and further intensification is very likely.

A subtropical ridge is steering Koppu toward the west and that general steering pattern is expected to continue for another 36 to 48 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Koppu will approach northern Luzon in 36 to 42 hours.  It could bring strong winds, heavy rain and a storm surge when it reaches that area.  The heavy rain could produce floods and mudslides as Koppu moves over northern Luzon.