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Typhoon Dujan Making Landfall in China

Typhoon Dujuan moved across Taiwan on Monday and it is currently making another landfall on the east coast of China.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT the center of Typhoon Dujuan was located at latitude 25.3°N and longitude 118.6°E which put it near Putian, China.  Dujuan was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 m.p.h.) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

Dujuan brought strong winds and heavy rain when it moved across Taiwan.  It weakened as the center moved over the mountains on Taiwan, but its large size and intensity allow Dujuan to survive.  Dujuan was still a typhoon as it moved into the coast of eastern China near Putian.  It could produce heavy rainfall and flooding as it moves inland.  Dujuan should spin down gradually during the next few days as it moves farther into eastern China.

Large Dangerous Typhoon Dujuan Nearing Taiwan

Large and dangerous Typhoon Dujuan is nearing Taiwan.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Dujuan was located at latitude 23.5°N and longitude 123.2°W which put it about 185 miles (300 km) southeast of Taipei, Taiwan.  Dujuan was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 170 m.p.h. (275 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 912 mb.

Typhoon Dujuan is a very symmetrical storm with a large eye.  Winds to hurricane force extend out 60 miles from the center.  A weather station on Ishigaki Jima, Japan has reported winds over 54 m.p.h. (87 km/h) for the past five hours even though the center is passing south of that island.  The upper level winds around the typhoon are light and upper level divergence is pumping out mass in all directions  Typhoon Dujuan is likely to maintain its intensify until it makes landfall in Taiwan.  When the core of the typhoon moves over the mountains on Taiwan it will weaken.  However, given Dujuan’s size and intensity, it is likely to still be a typhoon when it moves west of Taiwan.

A subtropical ridge north of Dujuan is steering the typhoon toward the west-northwest and that general steering pattern is expected to continue.  On its anticipated track Dujuan will make landfall in northeastern Taiwan in less than 12 hours.  It will move across Taiwan and the center could reform northwest of that island.  Dujuan could make a landfall in China between Xiamen and Fuzhou in less than 24 hours.

Dujuan has the potential to be a very destructive typhoon.  It has a Hurricane Intensity Index of 29.9 and a Hurricane Size Index of 21.3.  Those numbers produce a Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index of 51.2.  Those Indices suggest it is capable of producing widespread significant damage.  In addition to wind damage, Dujuan is capable of producing very heavy rainfall and floods.

Powerful Typhoon Dujuan Heads Toward Taiwan

Powerful Typhoon Dujuan turned west on Saturday and headed for Taiwan.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Dujuan was located at latitude 22.3°N and longitude 127.0°E which put it about 380 miles (610 km) east-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan and about 300 miles (480 km) south of Okinawa.  Dujuan was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 925 mb.

Dujuan continued to intensify on Saturday and it is a powerful well organized typhoon.  Dujuan has a large symmetrical eye which is surrounded by strong thunderstorms.  Upper level divergence is pumping out mass and the surface pressure is decreasing.  Dujuan is over warm Sea Surface Temperatures and there is not much vertical wind shear.  Further intensification is possible, although if concentric eyewalls form, it could disrupt the intensification trend.

An upper level ridge north of Dujuan steered the typhoon a little north of due west on Saturday.  That general motion is expected to continue for another day or two.  On its anticipated track Dujuan will pass near the southwestern Ryukyu Islands in about 24 hours.  It will approach Taiwan in about 30 hours and it could reach China in less than two days.  Dujuan is a large powerful typhoon and it will bring strong winds and heavy rain.  It could produce flooding in parts of Taiwan and eastern China.

Dujuan Reaches Typhoon Intensity South of Okinawa

Tropical Storm Dujuan continued to strengthen on Thursday and it reached typhoon intensity.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Dujuan was located at latitude 19.4°N and longitude 132.1°E which put it about 575 miles (930 km) south-southeast of Okinawa.  Dujuan was moving toward the north-northwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

The circulation around Typhoon Dujuan is becoming increasingly well organized.  A spiral band wrapped entirely around the center of circulation creating a large eye in the middle of the typhoon.  Additional spiral bands are forming, especially in the southern half of the circulation.  Thunderstorms in the eyewall are generating upper level divergence which is increasing with time.  Recent satellite images suggest that they eye may be contracting which would be another sign of intensification.

Dujuan is in an environment that favors intensification.  The Sea Surface Temperatures are warm and the speed of the upper level winds is decreasing.  An upper level ridge west of Dujuan is producing some northerly winds over the top of the typhoon, but the vertical wind shear is decreasing.  Intensification is likely and a period of rapid intensification is possible.  Dujuan could become the equivalent of a major hurricane in 24 to 48 hours.

Typhoon Dujuan is between a subtropical ridge to its northeast and another ridge to its northwest.  As a result, it moved slowly toward the northwest on Thursday.  Dujuan is expected to continue to move in a general northwesterly direction for another day or two.  The ridge west of Dujuan is expected to extend north of the typhoon during the weekend.  When the ridge extends north of Dujuan, it will steer the typhoon more toward the west.

On its anticipated track Typhoon Dujuan could approach the southwestern Ryukyu Islands including Ishigaki JIma in 60 to 72 hours.  Dujuan could be near Taiwan in about three and a half days and it could reach the coast of China in less than five days.  Dujuan could be a large and powerful typhoon capable of bringing strong winds and heavy rain by the time it reaches those areas.

Tropical Storm Dujuan Intensifying Southeast of Okinawa

After several days where vertical wind shear pushed most of the thunderstorms west of the core of the circulation, Tropical Storm Dujuan began to intensify on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Dujuan was located at latitude 18.9°N and longitude 132.7°E which put it about 620 miles (1000 km) southeast of Okinawa.  Dujuan was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

The circulation near the core of Tropical Storm Dujuan is showing more organization.  Thunderstorms are developing closer to the center of circulation, although most of the stronger storms are still south and southwest of the center.  The distribution of thunderstorms is an indication that an upper level ridge west of Dujuan is still generating northeasterly winds over the top of the tropical storm.  Some of the storms closer to the center of circulation are starting to generate upper level divergence.

Dujuan is over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  Intensification is likely but vertical wind shear could limit the rate of intensification in the short term.  The wind shear is likely to decrease in a day or two as Dujuan moves into an area where the upper level winds are lighter.  Dujuan could become a typhoon within 24 to 36 hours and it could reach the equivalent of a major hurricane during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Dujuan is being steered toward the west-northwest by a subtropical ridge located to its northeast,  That general steering patter is expected to continue for another 24 to 36 hours.  At that time Dujuan will be between the ridge to its east and another upper level ridge to its west, and it could turn toward the northwest for a day or so.  The western ridge is expected to build north of Dujuan and turn it more toward the west in three or four days.  On its anticipated track Dujuan could approach the southern islands of Japan in three or four days.  It could be near Taiwan in five days.  Dujuan could be a strong typhoon by that time.

Typhoon Goni Moving Closer to Northern Luzon and Taiwan

Typhoon Goni moved steadily westward on Wednesday and it got closer to northern Luzon and Taiwan.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Goni was located at latitude 18.9°N and longitude 125.3°E which put it about 350 miles (565 km) southeast of Taipei, Taiwan.  Goni was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 937 mb.

Typhoon Goni intensified on Wednesday and it is a very well organized tropical cyclone.  It has a large well formed eye.  The circulation is symmetrical although there are more thunderstorms in the south half of the typhoon.  Upper level divergence is well developed and it is pumping out mass in all directions.  Goni remains over warm Sea Surface Temperatures and the upper level winds are relatively light.  Some further intensification is possible during the next day or so.  Goni could run into stronger upper level winds in two or three days which would create more vertical wind shear and start to weaken the typhoon.

A subtropical ridge has been steering Goni toward the west and it is expected to do so again on Thursday.  However, Goni is nearing the western end of the ridge and it is forecast to turn to the north on Friday.  Goni appears to have moved more slowly during the past few hours, which may be an indication that it is reaching the western end of the ridge.  An upper level trough northwest of Goni is expected to turn Goni toward the northeast during the weekend and then accelerate it toward western Japan.

On its anticipated track, the center of Goni is expected to pass northeast of Luzon.  However, the circulation is large enough that some of northern Luzon could experience strong winds and heavy rain.  The center of Goni is forecast to pass east of Taiwan, but it could also bring strong winds heavy rain to some locations there as well.  The core of Goni could pass very near Ishigaki Jima and bring very strong winds and heavy rain to the islands in that area.

Typhoon Goni Heading West

Typhoon Goni moved steadily westward away from the Mariana Islands on Monday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Goni was located at latitude 18.3°N and longitude 135.3°E which put it about 780 miles (1260 km) southeast of Okinawa.  Goni was moving toward the west at 19 m.p.h. (31 km/).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 944 mb.

Goni appeared to go through an eyewall replacement cycle on Monday which resulted in a reduction in the maximum wind speed.  As the tiny pinhole inner eye weakened, the stronger winds were located in the larger outer eyewall.  The reduction in wind speed could be temporary, if the outer eye begins to contract.  Goni remains in a favorable environment.  It is moving over warm Sea Surface Temperature and the vertical wind shear is very modest.  The circulation is producing upper level divergence in all directions.  Goni will remain in a favorable environment for another two or three days and it should remain strong during that time period.

A subtropical ridge is steering Goni toward the west-northwest and that steering pattern is expect to continue for another 48 to 72 hours.  Later this week an upper level trough could approach the typhoon from the northwest.  Southwesterly winds on the eastern side of the trough could turn Goni toward the north later this week. On its anticipated track Goni could be near Taiwan, the northern Philippines or Okinawa when it makes that turn.

Goni Intensifies Rapidly Into a Strong Typhoon

Goni intensified rapidly from a tropical storm into a strong typhoon on Sunday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Goni was located at latitude 16.7°N and longitude 141.1°E which put it about 265 miles (425 km) west of Anatahan.  Goni was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h) which made Goni the equivalent of a major hurricane.  There were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and the minimum surface pressure was 937 mb.

The circulation of Goni organized quickly on Sunday and it was able to intensify rapidly.  The primary rainband wrapped tightly around the center of circulation and a tiny pinhole eye formed in the center.  The band continued to wrap about the core of the circulation and it could be about to form a second, larger concentric eyewall.  The structure of Goni looks a lot like the circulation of Typhoon Soudelor did when it intensified rapidly.  Light easterly winds in the upper levels enhanced divergence to the west of Goni and pumped out mass allowing the pressure to fall rapidly.

Goni is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are warm.  The vertical wind shear is minimal and further intensification is possible.  If concentric eyewalls form, eyewall replacement cycles could produce fluctuations in intensity.

A subtropical ridge is steering Goni toward the west-northwest and that general steering pattern is expected to continue for another three or four days.  At that time Goni could be near the western end of the subtropical ridge.  An upper level trough in the mid-latitude westerlies could approach the typhoon from the northwest and turn it toward the north.

Typhoon Soudelor Making Landfall in China

Typhoon Soudelor crossed the Taiwan Strait and it is making landfall on the east coast of China near Quanzhou.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Soudelor was located at latitude 24.9°N and longitude 118.9°E which put it about 50 miles east of Quanzhou.  Soudelor was moving to the northwest at 10 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

Soudelor weakened when it moved across Taiwan on Friday, but it was still a large typhoon when it made landfall in China.  Soudelor is expected to move toward the northwest while it moves farther inland over China.  Soudelor produced heavy rain when it moved over Taiwan and it could cause locally heavy rainfall over parts of eastern China before it dissipates.

Typhoon Soudelor Making Landfall in Taiwan

Powerful Typhoon Soudelor is making landfall on the east coast of Taiwan.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Soudelor was located at latitude 23.8°N and longitude 122.1°E which put it about 125 miles (200 km) southeast of Taipei, Taiwan.  Soudelor was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 944 mb.

Soudelor is a large and powerful typhoon.  Winds to hurricane force extend out to 45 miles (70 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend out up to 250 miles (400 km) from the center.  Chiang Kai Shek airport reported winds to 53 m.p.h. (85 km/h) with gusts to 87 m.p.h. (140 km/h) when the center was still 125 miles away.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Soudelor is 22.1, the Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 17.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 39.8, which means that Soudelor is capable of causing regional major damage.  The HWISI for Soudelor is most similar to that for Hurricane Dennis when it hit the northwest Florida in 2005.  Soudelor is not quite as strong as Dennis was, but it is larger.  In addition to strong winds, heavy rain and the mountainous terrain of Taiwan create the potential for serious flooding.

Soudelor will weaken as it moves across Taiwan, but it could still be a typhoon when it emerges over the Taiwan Strait.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Soudelor could make a second landfall near Fuzhou, China in 12 to 18 hours.  It could also bring strong winds and heavy rains to part of eastern China.