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Strong Typhoon Soudelor Approaching Taiwan

Typhoon Soudelor continued to move steadily toward Taiwan on Thursday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Soudelor was located at latitude 22.1°N and longitude 125.2°E which put it about 340 miles (550 km) south-southwest of Okinawa and about 420 miles (670 km) east-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan.  Soudelor was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 944 mb.

Soudelor is a large symmetrical typhoon with multiple rainbands.  It has well-developed upper level divergence.  Soudelor completed an eyewall replacement cycle and it is now intensifying again.  The typhoon is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C and there is little vertical wind shear.  It is in a favorable environment and further intensification is possible before it makes landfall in Taiwan.  Soudelor will weaken while it moves across Taiwan.

A subtropical ridge is steering Soudelor toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for another day or two.  On its anticipated track Soudelor will make landfall in Taiwan within 24 hours.  It will bring strong winds and heavy rainfall to Taiwan.  Soudelor has the potential to be a destructive typhoon.

Typhoon Soudelor Heading for Taiwan

Typhoon Soudelor moved steadily closer to Taiwan on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Soudelor was located at latitude 20.6°N and longitude 129.7°E which put it about 450 miles (725 km) south-southeast of Okinawa and about 730 miles (1170 km) east-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan.  Soudelor was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (23 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

Typhoon Soudelor went through an eyewall replacement cycle that resulted in temporary weakening while the inner eye dissipated and the outer eyewall contracted.  Soudelor appears to have completed the cycle and the convection in the new eyewall is growing.  The typhoon is in a very favorable environment.  The Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  Upper level winds are very light and there is almost no vertical wind shear.  The circulation is very symmetrical with multiple rainbands.  Upper level divergence is pumping out mass in all directions.  Soudelor is likely to re-intensify during the next two days.

A subtropical ridge is steering Soudelor toward the west-northwest and that general steering pattern is expected to continue for another two or three days.  On its anticipated track Soudelor would reach Taiwan in less than 48 hours.  It could be a large and powerful typhoon when it gets there.  It is likely to bring strong winds and heavy rain.  Soudelor will weaken as it crosses Taiwan and then it will make a second landfall in China.

Typhoon Soudelor Becomes Equivalent of a Category 5 Hurricane

Typhoon Soudelor continued to intensify rapidly on Monday and it reached the equivalent of a Category 5 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Soudelor was located at latitude 18.0°N and longitude 140.1°E which put it about 1020 miles (1640 km) east-southeast of Okinawa.  Soudelor was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 215 m.p.h. (350 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 907 mb.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Soudelor was 40.4, the Hurricane Size Index was 13.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index was 54.0.  These indices mean that Soudelor is capable of producing regional catastrophic damage.

The upper level winds around Soudelor are very light and there is almost no vertical wind shear.  The typhoon has strong upper level divergence in all directions which is pumping out mass and causing the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.  It is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C and the circulation is extracting plenty of energy from the upper ocean.  The environment would support further intensification, but Soudelor is already a very powerful typhoon.  Soudelor rapidly completed an eyewall replacement cycle earlier today and future cycles could produce fluctuations in intensity.  Soudelor could remain a very intense typhoon for several more days.

A strong subtropical ridge is steering Typhoon Soudelor toward the west-northwest and that general steering pattern is expected to continue for the next few days.  On its anticipated track Soudelor could be near the southernmost islands of Japan in three days, near northern Taiwan in four days and near the coast of China in less than five days.  Although it is likely to weaken before it reaches any of those locations, it could still be a powerful typhoon at that time.

Typhoon Chan-hom Approaching Shanghai

Large Typhoon Chan-hom is moving northward toward Shanghai, China.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Chan-hom was located at latitude 28.2°N and longitude 123.1°E which put it about 300 miles (500 km) south-southeast of Shanghai, China.  Chan-hom was moving to the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Chan-hom still has a very symmetrical circulation, but the intensity of the thunderstorms appears to have weakened in recent hours.  The typhoon is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are cooler and that is the most likely cause for the decreased intensity of the thunderstorms.  As it nears the coast of China, more of the western half of the circulation will be over land and increased friction will further reduce the wind speeds.  Vertical wind shear may also increase as Chan-hom moves farther north.

Chan-hom is moving around the western end of the subtropical ridge which has been steering it toward the northwest.  As it moves around the end of the ridge, Chan-hom will first turn toward the north and then it could accelerate toward the northeast when it begins to be affected by the mid-latitude westerlies.  On its anticipated track the center of Chan-hom will be near Shanghai in about 24 hours.  Given the large size of Chan-hom, the typhoon could bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the region near Shanghai.

Large Powerful Typhoon Chan-hom Heading for Northeastern China

Large and powerful Typhoon Chan-hom passed south of Okinawa and headed for northeastern China on Thursday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Chan-hom was located at latitude 25.9°N and longitude 125.0°E which put it about 155 miles (250 km) west-southwest of Okinawa and about 400 miles (640 km) south-southeast of Shanghai, China.  Chan-hom was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were gusts to 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 933 mb.

Typhoon Chan-hom has a very symmetrical structure with a well formed eye and numerous rainbands.  Hurricane force winds extend out 75 miles (120 km) in all directions from the center.  Upper level divergence is well developed and it is pumping out mass in all directions.  Chan-hom is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  Given the favorable environment, Chan-hom is likely to remain a powerful typhoon as it approaches the coast of northeastern China.

A subtropical ridge is steering Chan-hom toward the northwest and that steering motion is expected to continue on Friday.  On its anticipated track Chan-hom will approach the coast of China in about 24 hours.  It could make landfall south of Shanghai near Taizhou.  Chan-hom is likely to bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of northeastern China when it makes landfall.

Large Typhoon Chan-hom South-Southeast of Okinawa

Large Typhoon Chan-hom is approaching the far southern islands of Japan.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Chan-hom was located at latitude 22.8°N and longitude 129.2°E which put it about 300 miles (480 km) south-southeast of Okinawa.  Chan-hom was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Typhoon Chan-hom has a very large circulation.  It has a 32 mile (50 km) wide eye and hurricane force winds extend out 40 miles (65 km) in all directions from the center.  The circulation is very symmetrical and upper level divergence is well developed in all directions.  Chan-hom is still over warm Sea Surface Temperatures and there is little wind shear.  Further intensification is possible, although the size of the circulation could limit the rate of intensification.

A subtropical ridge is steering Chan-hom toward the northwest and that steering pattern is expected to continue during the next several days.  On its anticipated track the center of Chan-hom could pass south of Okinawa on Thursday.  Given the large circulation it could bring winds and rain to that island.  The center could come close to Miyako-Jima and that location and other nearby islands could experience typhoon force winds and heavy rain.

Typhoon Linfa Making Landfall East of Hong Kong

The center of Typhoon Linfa is very near the coast of China.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Linfa was located at latitude 22.6°N and longitude 116.4°E which put it about 165 miles east of Hong Kong.  Linfa was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

A mid-level ridge north of Typhoon Linfa is steering it toward the west and that steering pattern is expected to continue in the short term.  On its anticipated track Linfa will move along the coast of China and it could approach Hong Kong in 12 to 18 hours.  Since half of the circulation will be over land and half of the circulation will be over water, Linfa is expected to weaken slowly on Thursday.  It could bring tropical storm force winds and heavy rain to areas near the coast.  Linfa could still be a tropical storm when it moves across Hong Kong.

Chan-hom Intensifies Into a Typhoon

The circulation around Chan-hom organized rapidly on Monday and it intensified into a typhoon.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Chan-hom was located at latitude 18.1°N and longitude 136.8°E which put it about 850 miles (1370 km) southeast of Okinawa.  Chan-hom was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (18 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (140 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

A primary rainband wrapped completely around the center of circulation of Typhoon Chan-hom and a large eye is apparent on satellite images.  Strong thunderstorms around the eye are generating upper level divergence which is pumping out mass and allowing the surface pressure to decrease.  The typhoon is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is around 28°C and there is plenty of energy in the upper ocean.  Upper level winds are relatively light and there is not much vertical wind shear.  The environment is very favorable for further intensification and rapid intensification is possible.  Chan-hom is expected to continue to intensify and it could become the equivalent of a major hurricane later this week.

A subtropical ridge north of Chan-hom is steering the typhoon toward the west.  The ridge is expected to steer Chan-hom toward the northwest during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Chan-hom could approach the southern islands of Japan in about three days.  It could be a large and powerful typhoon at that time.

Tropical Storm Kujira Makes Landfall on Hainan Island

Tropical Storm Kujira made landfall on the east coast of Hainan Island on Monday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Kujira was located at latitude 19.9°N and longitude 109.1°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) south of Beihai, China.  Kujira was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Passing across Hainan Island weakened Tropical Storm Kujira on Monday.  In addition, an upper level ridge over southern Asia continues to generate vertical wind shear over the tropical storm.  However, it will move over warm water when the center moves northwest of Hainan Island.  So, Kujira could maintain tropical storm intensity until it makes another landfall in China in about 18 to 24 hours.  The primary risk will be locally heavy rainfall.

Tropical Storm Kujira Nearing Hainan Island

Tropical Storm Kujira moved slowly northward on Sunday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday night the center of Tropical Storm Kujira was located at latitude 18.0°N and longitude 111.2°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) south-southeast of Xuwen, China.  Kujira was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (70 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Although Kujira is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C, vertical wind shear is inhibiting intensification.  An upper level ridge over southern Asia is producing northeasterly winds over the top of Kujira.  As a result of the vertical shear, most of the stronger thunderstorms are occurring southwest of the center of circulation.  As Kujira moves farther north, some of the circulation will move over Hainan Island, which will further limit the potential for intensification.

Kujira is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering the tropical storm toward the north.  The steering pattern is expected to remain in place for the early part of the week.  Kujira could be very close to the east coast of Hainan Island in about 12 hours.  It will move near or just east of Hainan and Kujira could make landfall in China in 24 to 36 hours.  Although it will bring some wind, the primary risk will be locally heavy rainfall.