Tag Archives: Japan

Tropical Storm Megi Forms West of the Marianas

Tropical Storm Megi formed west of the Marianas on Friday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Megi was located at latitude 16.4°N and longitude 137.1°E which put it about 1160 miles (1870 km) east-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan.  Megi was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (70 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Megi is still organizing.  A distinct center of circulation is still consolidating.  There are more thunderstorms south and east of the center of circulation, but bands of thunderstorms are beginning to develop in other quadrants of the storm.  The thunderstorms closer to the center are generating upper level divergence which is pumping out mass.  Outflow channels could be developing to the northwest and southeast of Tropical Storm Megi.

Tropical Storm Megi is moving into an environment that is favorable for intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are not very strong and there is little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Megi is likely to continue to intensify while the circulation becomes better organized.  Once a well formed core develops at the center of Megi, it could intensify more rapidly.  Tropical Storm Megi is likely to become a typhoon during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Megi is moving along the southwestern side of a subtropical ridge, which is steering it toward the west.  A westerly or west-northwesterly motion is expected to continue for the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Megi could approach Taiwan in about three days.  Megi is likely to be a typhoon at that time.

Typhoon Malakas Bringing Gusty Winds and Rain to Shikoku and Honshu

Typhoon Malakas is bringing wind and rain to coastal areas of Shikoku and Honshu.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Malakas was located near latitude 33.4°N and longitude 134.7°W which put it about 90 miles (145 km) southwest of Osaka, Japan.  Malakas was moving toward the northeast at 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

The structure of Typhoon Malakas is starting the transition from a tropical cyclone to an extratropical cyclone.  It retains an eye, but the thunderstorms in the southern part of the eyewall are thinning.  Most of the other thunderstorms are in rainbands north of the center of circulation.  Cooler, drier air is wrapping around the southern side of the circulation.  The strongest winds are occurring over the water near the center of circulation.  Heavy rain is falling over eastern Shikoku and southwestern Honshu near Osaka and Nagoya.

Although Typhoon Malakas is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C, it will continue to weaken as it makes the transition to an extratropical cyclone.  An upper level trough west of Japan is producing southwesterly winds which are blowing across the top of the circulation.  Also, almost half of the circulation is moving over land and the center will move over coastal sections of Honshu.  Increasing vertical wind shear and the added friction caused by the land will weaken Malakas to a tropical storm on Tuesday.

The upper level trough is steering Typhoon Malakas quickly toward the northeast and that general motion is expected to continue.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Malakas will pass south of Osaka and Nagoya.  The center of then Tropical Storm Malakas will move near Tokyo in about 18 hours.  Malakas will continue to bring gusty winds to coastal parts of Honshu.

Powerful Typhoon Malakas Nearing Kyushu

Powerful Typhoon Malakas moved steadily closer to Kyushu on Sunday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Malakas was centered at latitude 29.7°N and longitude 127.9°E which put it about 210 miles (340 km) southwest of Kagoshima, Japan.  Malakas was moving toward the east-northeast at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 948 mb.

The circulation of Typhoon Malakas remains well organized and it is taking on the typical structure of a strong tropical cyclone that is starting to recurve.  The size of the eye increased during the past 24 hours.  The eye is surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms which is thinner south of the eye.  There are several strong rainbands, but they are primarily in the northern half of the circulation.  The circulation is beginning to pull drier air around the southern side of Malakas which is why the rainbands in that part of the typhoon are weaker.  Thunderstorms in the core of Typhoon Malakas are generating upper level divergence that is pumping out mass toward the northeast.

Typhoon Malakas is moving through an environment that should allow it to maintain its intensity during the next few hours.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level trough to the west of Japan is generating southwesterly winds which are blowing across the top of the circulation.  However, the vertical wind shear is moderate enough to allow Typhoon Malakas to maintain its intensity in the short term.  When Malakas moves farther to the northeast, it will move into a region where where upper level winds are stronger and the vertical wind shear will increase.  More vertical wind shear and the interaction of the circulation with Kyushu, Shikoku and Honshu will cause Malakas to weaken.

The upper level trough will continue to steer Typhoon Malakas toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track the center of Malakas will be near southwest Kyushu in about 12 hours.  It will be near Shikoku in 20 hours and is could be near Honshu in 30 hours.

Typhoon Malakas will bring strong winds and heavy rain to southwestern Kyushu.  It is likely to still be a typhoon when it passes near the coast of Shikoku.  Malakas could be a tropical storm when it passes south of Kyoto and when it moves near Tokyo in a couple of days.  Malakas could bring wind and heavy rain to the coastal portions of Honshu later this week.

Typhoon Malakas Turns Toward Japan

Typhoon Malakas made the expected northeast turn toward Japan on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Malakas was located at latitude 27.1°N and longitude 123.8°E which put it about 265 miles (425 km) west of Okinawa.  Malakas was moving toward the northeast at 11 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

The structure of Typhoon Malakas is slowly changing as it moves toward the north and encounters a little more wind shear.  Malakas still has an eye, but the thunderstorms around the eyewall are not strong as they were 24 hours ago and a few small breaks may be developing in the eyewall.  There are still a number of rainbands spiraling around the typhoon.  The core of Typhoon Malakas is still generating upper level divergence.  Overall, Malakas is still a well organized, if weaker, typhoon.

Typhoon Malakas has moved around the western end of a subtropical ridge and it has turned toward the northeast.  An upper level trough west of Japan will steer Malakas toward the northeast at a faster speed on Sunday.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Malakas will approach southwestern Kyushu in about 36 hours,  It will bring strong wind and heavy rain to southwestern Japan in about two days.

Strong Typhoon Malakas Turns North Toward Southernmost Ryukyu Islands

Strong Typhoon Malakas made the expected turn toward the north on Friday and it began to move parallel to the east coast of Taiwan toward the southwesternmost Ryukyu Islands.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Malakas was located at latitude 23.4°N and longitude 123.0°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) southwest of Ishigaki, Japan.  Malakas was moving toward the north at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 937 mb.

Malakas is a strong well organized typhoon.  It has a well formed eye at the center of circulation surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms.  Additional bands of thunderstorms are rotating around the core of Malakas and there are more thunderstorms in the southern half of the circulation.  Winds to typhoon force extend out about 35 miles (55 km) in all directions from the center of circulation.  The upper level divergence is strongest to the south of Typhoon Malakas.

Typhoon Malakas is in a very favorable environment.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 29°C.  The upper level winds are not too strong and there is little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Malakas could intensify a little more during the next 24 hours.  When Typhoon Malakas moves farther north, it will move over cooler SSTs.  In addition there is an upper level trough over eastern China which will cause southwesterly winds and increasing vertical wind shear when Malakas gets farther north.

Typhoon Malakas is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge and it is likely to continue to move north for another 24 hours or so.  In about a day, the upper level trough over eastern China will start to turn Malakas toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Malakas could approach southwestern Kyushu in about three days.

The center of Typhoon Malakas is passing east of Taiwan.  Some of the rainbands in the western part of the circulation will move over Taiwan, but the core of the typhoon where the strongest wind is occurring will stay east of there.  The center of Malakas will pass west of Ishigaki and Okinawa, but it could move over some of the smaller islands at the very southwestern end of the Ryukyu Islands.  Malakas could cause significant damage on those islands.

Typhoon Malakas Moves Toward Taiwan and the Ryukyu Islands

Typhoon Malakas moved toward Taiwan and the southernmost Ryukyu Islands on Thursday.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Malakas was located at latitude 20.1°N and longitude 124.7°W which put it about 285 miles (460 km) south of Ishigaki, Japan.  Malakas was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

The structure of Typhoon Malakas is well organized.  A small eye has been evident intermittently on satellite imagery.  More of the thunderstorms are forming south of the center of circulation, although there are spiral bands of thunderstorms in all quadrants of the circulation.  The thunderstorms in the core of Typhoon Malakas are generating upper level divergence which is pumping out mass in all directions.  The circulation of Typhoon Malakas has been in a rough equilibrium during the past 24 hours and the intensity has remained relatively steady.

Typhoon Malakas is moving through an environment that is favorable for intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  Although there is an upper level trough over China and an upper level low to the northeast of Malakas, the upper level winds around the typhoon are relatively light.  There is not much vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Malakas could strengthen further during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon Malakas is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge.  Malakas turned more toward the northwest on Thursday.  It is expected to move more toward the north on Friday as is reaches the western end of the ridge.  When Malakas moves farther north, the upper level trough over China will steer the typhoon quickly toward the northeast toward the southern end of Kyushu.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Malakas will be near northeastern Taiwan and the southernmost Ryukyu Islands in about 24 hours.

Typhoon Malakas is smaller than Typhoon Meranti was, but Typhoon Malakas is capable of causing significant wind damage.  It will also bring heavy rain.  Since areas on Taiwan received heavy rain when Typhoon Meranti moved past them, it will take less additional rain to create the potential for flash flooding.

Strong Typhoon Meranti Nears Landfall in China

Strong Typhoon Meranti is near a landfall on the east coast of China close to Xiamen.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Meranti was located at latitude 23.9°N and longitude 118.4°E which put it about 40 miles (65 km) south-southeast of Xiamen, China.  Meranti was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 931 mb.

Meranti has weakened during the past 24 hours, but it remains a strong typhoon.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Meranti is 29.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 24.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index is 54.4.  These indices suggest that Typhoon Meranti is capable of causing widespread significant damage when it makes landfall.  As a comparison, the HII for Hurricane Ivan just before it made landfall on the Gulf Coast in 2004 was 22.1, the HSI was 34.1 and the HWISI was 56.2.  Thus, Typhoon Meranti is stronger than Hurricane Ivan was, but Meranti is also smaller than Ivan was in 2004.  The HWISI for Typhoon Meranti is close to what it was for Hurricane Ivan.

The center and inner eyewall of Typhoon Meranti moved just south of the southern end of Taiwan.  Since the eyewall stayed over water, it remained intact.  However, the outer concentric eyewall and much of the northern half of the circulation did move across Taiwan.  Flow over the mountains on Taiwan did weaken the northern half of the circulation, while the center and southern half of the circulation remained intact.  Since the core of the circulation stayed over the water, Typhoon Meranti stayed stronger than it would have if the inner eye had moved over Taiwan.

Most of the stronger thunderstorms and heavier rain are near the center of circulation and south of the center.  There are rainbands in other parts of Typhoon Meranti and some of those rainbands are already bringing heavy rain to parts of eastern China.

Typhoon Meranti is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering it toward the northwest.  Meranti is expected to turn more toward the north as it move inland over China.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Meranti is expected to move northwest over Fujian province and then turn north toward Nanchang.

Typhoon Meranti is capable of causing significant wind damage over eastern China.  In addtion strong winds will create a significant storm surge along the coast near Xiamen.  Heavy rain will spread inland over Fujian province and the rain could create the potential for flooding over parts of eastern China.

Extremely Powerful Typhoon Meranti Nearing Southern Taiwan

The center of extremely powerful Typhoon Meranti moved closer to the southern end of Taiwan during the past few hours.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Meranti was located at latitude 21.1°N and longitude 121.3°E which put it about 65 miles (105 km) south-southeast of Hengchun, Taiwan.  Meranti was moving toward the west-northwest at 11 m.p.h. (18 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 230 m.p.h. (370 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 887 mb.

Typhoon Meranti is large and powerful.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) is 46.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 27.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 74.0.  As a source of comparison, when Hurriane Katrina was at its peak intensity as a Category 5 hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico in 2005, its HII was 38.6, its HSI was 33.7, and its HWISI was 72.3.  Typhoon Meranti is stronger than Hurricane Katrina was, but Meranti is a little smaller than Katrina was in 2005.  The indices suggest that Typhoon Meranti is capable of causing widespread catastrophic damage.

The circulation of Typhoon Meranti is symmetrical and very well organized.  It possess a tight core consisting of a small inner eye surrounded by a ring of very tall thunderstorms.  A second, larger outer eyewall completely surrounds the inner eye.  The strongest winds are occurring in the inner eyewall near the center of circulation.  Winds to typhoon force are also occurring in the outer eyewall and extend out at least 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation.  Additional bands of strong thunderstorms are rotating around the outer eyewall.  Typhoon Meranti is generating strong upper level divergence which is pumping out large quantities of mass and is allowing the surface pressure to be so low.

Typhoon Meranti is probably at its peak intensity.  It is still moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  However, the northwestern edge of the outer eyewall appears to be moving over the southern end of Taiwan.  As more of the circulation moves over Taiwan, there will be some disruption of the airflow.  The center of Typhoon Meranti could move very close to the southern tip of Taiwan.  If the center of Meranti moves over southern Taiwan, then the typhoon will weaken more quickly.  It currently appears that the center of Typhoon Meranti could move just south of the southern tip of Taiwan, and on that track the typhoon would not weaken as quickly.  When Typhoon Meranti moves west of Taiwan, it will move over slightly cooler SSTs before it reaches China.  Meranti will weaken more before it reaches China, but it will still be a significant typhoon when it makes landfall there.

The center of Typhoon Meranti is wobbling a little as the inner eye rotates around inside the outer eyewall.  If one averages the wobbles, then then core of Meranti is moving on a general west-northwesterly track.  On its anticipated track, the center of Typhoon Meranti will pass very near the southern end of Taiwan during the next few hours.  It could turn slightly toward the northwest as it moves west of Taiwan.  Typhoon Meranti could make a landfall on the coast of China between Xiamen and Shantou in about 24 hours.

Typhoon Meranti is an extremely dangerous storm.  It is capable of causing widespread catastrophic wind damage.  In addition, its intensity and size will produce very heavy rainfall, especially on the eastern slopes of the mountains on Taiwan.  Flash flooding is likely.  Typhoon Meranti will also produce heavy rain over eastern China and additional flooding is likely in that region.  Typhoon Meranti will also cause a significant storm surge in low lying coastal areas.

Typhoon Meranti Becomes Equivalent of Cat. 5 Hurricane and Threatens Taiwan

Typhoon Meranti rapidly intensified into the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale as it moved on a course that threatens Taiwan.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Meranti was located at latitude 19.2°N and longitude 127.6°E which put it about 495 miles (800 km) southeast of Taiwan.  Meranti was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (23 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 180 m.p.h. (290 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 220 m.p.h. (355 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure.

Meranti is a large dangerous typhoon.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) is 42.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 25.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 67.7.  Those indices suggest that Typhoon Meranti is capable of causing widespread catastrophic damage.

The structure of Typhoon Meranti is very well organized.  A well formed circular eye is surrounded by a ring of very tall thunderstorms.  Additional strong spiral bands of thunderstorms are rotating around the core of the circulation.  Typhoon Meranti is generating strong upper level divergence which is pumping out mass in all directions.

Typhoon Meranti is moving through an environment that will allow it to maintain much of its intensity until it reaches Taiwan.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is not much vertical wind shear.  If a rainband wraps around the existing eye, then an eyewall replacement cycle could temporarily weaken Typhoon Meranti.

A subtropical ridge is steering Typhoon Meranti toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Meranti will be very near the southern tip of Taiwan in about 36 hours.  After it moves past Taiwan it is forecast to move into eastern China.

Meranti is an extremely dangerous typhoon.  It is capable of causing widespread catastrophic wind damage.  In addition it will produce very heavy rain and flooding is a serious concern.

Typhoon Meranti Strengthens Quickly Into the Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Typhoon Meranti intensified rapidly on Sunday into the equivalent of a major hurricane.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Meranti was located at latitude 18.1°N and longitude 129.7°E which put it about 650 miles (1050 km) east-southeast of Taiwan.  Meranti was moving toward the west-northwest at 17 m.p.h. (27 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 948 mb.

Typhoon Meranti intensified very rapidly on Sunday.  A small, well formed eye developed at the center of Meranti.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounds the eye and additional bands of thunderstorms are spiraling around the core of the circulation.  The circulation is very symmetrical.  Thunderstorms in the core of Typhoon Meranti are generating strong upper level divergence which is pumping out large amounts of mass in all directions.  Meranti is a very well organized typhoon.

Typhoon Meranti is moving through a very favorable environment. It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Meranti will continue to intensify and it could become a Super Typhoon.  If an eyewall replacement cycle occurs, there could be fluctuations in the intensity of Meranti.

A subtropical ridge is steering Typhoon Meranti toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for another couple of days.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Meranti will be near northern Luzon, Taiwan and the southern Ryukyu Islands in about 48 hours.  Meranti will be a dangerous typhoon at that time.  It will be capable of significant wind damage.  It will also cause very heavy rain and create the potential for significant flooding.