Tag Archives: Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Marian Spins Southwest of Cocos Island

Tropical Cyclone Marian continued to spin over the South Indian Ocean southwest of Cocos Island on Tuesday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Marian was located at latitude 18.8°S and longitude 90.0°E which put it about 650 miles (1045 km) southwest of Cocos Island. Marian was moving toward the east-southeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 958 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Marian remained well organized on Tuesday morning. A circular eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) was present at the center of Marian. The eye was surrounded a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Even though the circulation was well organized, satellite images of Tropical Cyclone Marian suggested that it could be starting to weaken. The temperature of the tops of thunderstorms was warming which indicated that those storms were not rising as high in the atmosphere. Microwave satellite imagery depicted breaks forming in the southwestern part of the eyewall of Marian.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Marian. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Marian was 17.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 21.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 39.4.

Tropical Cyclone Marian will move into an environment that will be less favorable for tropical cyclones during the next few days. Marian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 27°C. An upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will approach Tropical Cyclone Marian from the west. The trough will produce northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Marian. Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear. A combination of slightly cooler water and more vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Marian to weaken during the next several days.

The upper level trough will begin to steer Tropical Cyclone Marian toward the southeast. On its anticipated track Marian will move farther away from Cocos Island. Tropical Cyclone Marian is forecast to remain west of Western Australia during the next five days.

Tropical Cyclone Marian Intensifies To Equivalent of Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Marian intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean southwest of Cocos Island on Sunday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Marian was located at latitude 17.5°S and longitude 91.1°E which put it about 520 miles (835 km) southwest of Cocos Island. Marian was moving toward the southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Marian intensified rapidly into the equivalent of a major hurricane during the past 24 hours. A circular eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) formed at the center of Marian. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms near the core of the circulation generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Marian.

The area of the strongest winds expanded as Tropical Cyclone Marian intensified rapidly. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Marian. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Marian was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 17.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 38.3.

Tropical Cyclone Marian will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Marian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 28°C. It will move under the western portion of an upper level ridge. The upper level winds will be weak during the next 12 hours and there will not be a lot of vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Marian could intensify during the next 12 hours. Marian will move closer to upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes early next week. The vertical wind shear will increase at that time and Tropical Cyclone Marian will weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Marian will move around the western part of a subtropical high pressure system during the next 36 hours. The high will steer Marian toward the southwest during the next 18 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Marian will move farther away from Cocos Island. After Marian moves around the western end of the high pressure system, the tropical cyclone will start to move toward the southeast..

Tropical Cyclone Marian Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Marian intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean southwest of Cocos Island on Saturday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Marian was located at latitude 16.4°S and longitude 93.0°E which put it about 370 miles (595 km) southwest of Cocos Island. Marian was moving toward the southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Marian continued to exhibit more organization on Saturday. An eye was visible at the center of Marian at times on satellite images. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Marian. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Marian. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Marian will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Marian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 29°C. It will move under the western portion of an upper level ridge. The upper level winds will be weak during the next 24 hours and there will not be a lot of vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Marian is likely to continue to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Marian will move around the western part of a subtropical high pressure system. The high will steer Marian toward the southwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Marian will move farther away from Cocos Island. Marian could recurve back toward Australia next week after it moves around the western end of the high pressure system.

Tropical Cyclone Marian Strengthens South of Cocos Island

Tropical Cyclone Marian strengthened south of Cocos Island on Friday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Marian was located at latitude 14.9°S and longitude 96.4°E which put it about 190 miles (310 km) south of Cocos Island. Marian was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

The circulation around an area of low pressure over the South Indian Ocean south of Cocos Island exhibited much more organization on Friday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Marian. Marian organized quickly during the past few hours. An eye was beginning to appear at the center of Marian on infrared satellite images. The inner end of a rainband was wrapping around the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in the developing eyewall. Thunderstorms near the center of Marian generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Marian. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) in the northern half of Marian.

Tropical Cyclone Marian will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Marian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 29°C. It will move under the northern portion of an upper level ridge. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation. However, the winds speeds will be similar at different levels in the atmosphere and there will not be a lot of vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Marian will intensify into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Marian will move around the northwestern part of a subtropical high pressure system. The high will steer Marian toward the west-southwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Marian will move farther away from Cocos Island.

Tropical Cyclone 03S Makes Landfall in Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone 03S made landfall on the coast of Western Australia on Thursday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone 03S was located at latitude 20.4°S and longitude 117.8°E which put it about 55 miles (90 km) west of Port Hedland, Australia. It was moving toward the southeast at 28 m.p.h. (45 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Cyclone 03S made landfall on the coast of Western Australia west of Port Hedland on Thursday night. The tropical cyclone intensified slightly just before landfall. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of circulation. The tropical cyclone brought gusty winds to the area around Port Hedland. A weather station in Port Hedland reported a sustained wind speed of 44 m.p.h. (71 km/h) and a wind gust of 56 m.p.h. (91 km/h).

Tropical Cyclone 03S will drop heavy rain over parts of Western Australia as it moves rapidly inland. Flood Warnings were in effect for the Pilbara Coastal Rivers, the Fortescue River, the De Grey River catchment, the Salt Lakes District Rivers, the Sandy Desert, and the Warburton District Rivers.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Bongoyo weakened east of Rodrigues. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bongoyo was located at latitude 22.2°S and longitude 74.8°E which put it about 640 miles (1035 km) east of Rodrigues. It was moving toward the southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Tropical Cyclone 03S Moves Toward Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone 03S moved toward Western Australia on Wednesday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 03S was located at latitude 14.5°S and longitude 111.8°E which put it about 595 miles (955 km) northwest of Port Hedland, Australia. It was moving toward the southeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

There was a well defined low level center of circulation in Tropical Cyclone 03S, but the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands southwest of the center. Bands north and east of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Tropical Cyclone 03S was under the western part of an upper level ridge. The ridge was producing northeasterly winds which were blowing toward the top of the circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and the shear was contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone 03S will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. The tropical cyclone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. The upper level ridge will still cause vertical wind shear, but the shear could decrease a little. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Cyclone 03S could strengthen during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 03S will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high will steer the tropical cyclone toward the southeast. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 03S will make landfall on the coast of Western Australia near Port Hedland in about 36 hours. The tropical cyclone will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Western Australia later this week.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Bongoyo moved slowly toward Rodrigues. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bongoyo was located at latitude 20.7°S and longitude 75.8°E which put it about 835 miles (1345 km) east of Rodrigues. Bongoyo was moving toward the southwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Mangga Brings Wind and Rain to Cocos Island

Tropical Cyclone Mangga brought wind and rain to Cocos Island on Friday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mangga was located at latitude 16.3°S and longitude 97.6°E which put it about 270 miles (435 km) south of Cocos Island.  Mangga was moving toward the southeast at 21 m.p.h. (34 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Mangga passed southwest of Cocos Island on Friday.  The circulation around Mangga was fairly large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) to the northeast of the center of circulation.  A weather station on Cocos Island reported a sustained wind speed of 27 m.p.h. (43 km/h) and a wind gust of 38 m.p.h. (61 km/h).  The station measured 1.25 inches (32 mm) of rain during the passage of Tropical Cyclone Mangga.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Mangga did not appear to be well organized.  There were not a lot of thunderstorms near the center or circulation.  Bands near the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Thunderstorms were occurring to the southeast of the low level center of circulation.  The thunderstorms appeared to be associated with a circulation in the middle and upper troposphere.  Those thunderstorms were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the southeast of Tropical Cyclone Mangga.

Tropical Cyclone Mangga will move through an environment only marginally favorable for intensification.  Mangga will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  However, an upper level ridge northwest of Australia and an upper level trough west of Australia will produce northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear.  The shear is likely to be strong enough to prevent intensification of the current low level center of Tropical Cyclone Mangga.  It is possible that the circulation in the middle and upper troposphere could cause a new low level center to form.  If a new center forms where the thunderstorms and upper level divergence are occurring, then some intensification might be possible.

Tropical Cyclone Mangga will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system centered over Australia.  The high will steer Mangga quickly toward the southeast.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Mangga could reach the coast of Western Australia in less than 36 hours.  Mangga could produce winds to tropical storm force along the coast of Western Australia.

Former Tropical Cyclone Esther Drops Heavy Rain Over Northwestern Australia

Former Tropical Cyclone Esther dropped heavy rain over parts of northwestern Australia on Wednesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Esther was located at latitude 15.3°S and longitude 130.8°E which put it about 240 miles (390 km) south of Darwin, Australia.  Esther was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

The circulation around former Tropical Cyclone Esther remained very well organized on Wednesday even though it had been moving across northern Australia for several days.  There was a distinct low level center of circulation.  The circulation was surrounded by bands of showers and thunderstorms.  Strong thunderstorms developed south of Darwin in a band in the northern part of the circulation.  The Darwin harbor reported a wind gust of 44 m.p.h. (72 km/h).  The Wyndham airport reported a wind gust of 39 m.p.h. (63 km/h).

Former Tropical Cyclone Esther could strengthen back into a tropical cyclone if the center of circulation moves over the South Indian Ocean west of Australia.  Esther will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next day or two.  The Sea Surface Temperature near the west coast of Australia is near 30°C.  Esther will move under an upper level ridge where the winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Former Tropical Cyclone Esther could intensify rapidly if the center of circulation moves completely over water.

Former Tropical Cyclone Esther will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Australia during the next several days.  The high will steer Esther toward the west during the next 24 to 48 hours.  It will turn more toward the south when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system.  On its anticipated track the center of former Tropical Cyclone Esther will pass near the southern end of the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Ferdinand churned northwest of Australia.  At 10:00 p.m. EST the center of Tropical Cyclone Ferdinand was located at latitude 16.6°S and longitude 114.3°E which put it about 400 miles (645 km) north of Learmonth, Australia.  Ferdinand was moving toward the west at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 966 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Damien Brings Wind and Rain to Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Damien brought wind and rain to Western Australia on Saturday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Damien was located at latitude 21.7°S and longitude 117.0°E which put it about 60 miles (100 km) south-southeast of Karratha, Australia.  Damien was moving toward the south-southeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

A Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast of Western Australia from Whim Creek to Mardie including Karratha and Dampier.  Flood Warnings were in effect for the Fortescue River and the Coastal Pilbara Rivers.  A Flood Watch was in effect for the Pilbara and Gascoyne District.  An Initial Flood Warning was issued for the Ashburton River.

A weather station at Karratha reported a sustained wind speed of 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h or 78 kt) when the core of Tropical Cyclone Damien passed over it.  The station also reported a wind gust of 114 m.p.h. (183 km/h or 99 kt).  The weather station at Karratha measured 6.14 inches (156 mm) of rain during the passage of Damien.  The minimum pressure was 957 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Damien will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high will steer Damien toward the south-southeast during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Damien could approach Tom Price and Paraburdoo in about 12 hours.  Damien will weaken slowly as it moves farther inland.  It will continue to produce strong winds capable of causing damage during the next 12 to 24 hours  Tropical Cyclone Damien could also drop locally heavy rain over parts of Western Australia during the next several days.

Strengthening Tropical Cyclone Damien Nears Western Australia

Strengthening Tropical Cyclone Damien neared the coast of Western Australia on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Damien was located at latitude 19.4°S and longitude 116.6°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) north-northwest of Karratha, Australia.  Damien was moving toward the south-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 963 mb.

A Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast of Western Australia from De Grey to Onslow including Dampier, Karratha and Port Hedland.  Initial Flood Warnings were in effect for the Coastal Pilbara Rivers.  A Flood Watch was in effect for the Pilbara and Gascoyne District.

Tropical Cyclone Damien continued to strengthen quickly on Friday.  A circular eye developed at the center of Damien.  A narrow ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Damien.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Damien was relatively small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Damien was 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 26.4.  Damien was capable of causing localized serious damage.

Tropical Cyclone Damien will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Damien will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over Australia.  The ridge will produce northerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent Tropical Cyclone Damien from strengthening.  Damien could intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane before it reaches the coast of Western Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Damien will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high will steer Damien toward the south during the next several days.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Damien could make landfall on the coast of Western Australia near Dampier and Karratha in about 12 hours.  Damien will be capable of causing serious wind damage.  It will also produce a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) between Port Hedland and Dampier where the wind blows the water toward the coast.  The highest storm surge will occur near where the center makes landfall.  Tropical Cyclone Damien will also drop locally heavy rain and flash floods could occur in parts of Western Australia.