Tag Archives: Cabo San Lucas

Max Rapidly Intensifies Into a Hurricane Near Acapulco

Tropical Storm Max intensified rapidly into a hurricane on Thursday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Max was located at latitude 16.3°N and longitude 99.9°W which put it about 40 miles (65 km/h) south of Acapulco, Mexico.  Max was moving toward the east at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (155 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Zihuatenajo to Punta Maldonado, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Maldonado to Laguas de Chacahua, Mexico.

The circulation of Hurriane Max is quite small.  Winds to hurricane force only extend out about 15 miles (25 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 50 miles (80 km) from the center.  Although the circulation of Hurricane Max is small, it is very well organized.  There is a small circular eye at the center of circulation.  The eye is surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds are occurring in that ring of storms.

The center of Hurricane Max is very close to the coast of Mexico.  The outer fringes of the northwestern part of the circulation could already be pulling in some drier air.  Max will make landfall on the coast of Mexico within a few hours and it will start to dissipate as soon as the center make landfall.

The core of Hurricane Max will be capable of causing localized wind damage.  Max will also drop very heavy rain over parts of the states or Guerrero and Oaxaca and flash floods could occur in some areas of steeper terrain.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Norma formed to the west of Hurricane Max.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Norma was located at latitude 17.2°N and longitude 109.5°W which put it about 395 miles (635 km) south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Norma was moving toward the north at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.  Tropical Storm Norma is forecast to strengthen and move toward Baja California.  Normal could be a hurricane when it approaches southern Baja California in a few days.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E Prompts Hurricane Watch for Baja California

The National Hurricane Center is forecasting that a weather system currently designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E will become a tropical storm and affect Baja California.  The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning for the portion of the coast from Todos Santo to Los Barriles including Cabo San Lucas.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E was located at latitude 17.2°N and longitude 107.2°W which put it about 430 miles (695 km) south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California.  It was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

The circulation of Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E is in the early stages of organization.  There is a large counterclockwise circulation over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Mexico.  Numerous showers and thunderstorms are forming within the circulation, but there is no well defined center of circulation.  There are fewer showers and thunderstorms in the eastern portion of the circulation.  An upper level ridge centered over Mexico is generating brisk easterly winds which are blowing over the top of the circulation.  Those winds are causing moderate vertical wind shear and the system has not yet begun to generate much upper level divergence.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  So, there is plenty of energy in the upper ocean to support intensification.  The strength of the upper level winds is forecast to diminish and the wind shear is likely to decrease.  If the wind shear decreases, then the environment will become more favorable for intensification.  Intensification is likely to be slow while the circulation becomes more organized and develops a distinct low level center.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E could become a tropical storm on Wednesday.  It has a chance to intensify to a hurricane on Thursday.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge is steering the system toward the northwest and a general northwesterly motion is expected to continue for another day or two.  On its anticipated track the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E could approach the southern part of Baja California by late on Thursday.  It could be a strong tropical storm or a hurricane at that time.  Locally heavy rain falling on the steep terrain of Baja California always creates a risk for flash floods.