Tag Archives: Mexico

Polo Becomes a Hurricane

The circulation around Polo continues to exhibit increasing signs of intensification and it was upgraded to hurricane status on Wednesday night.  Polo is the sixteenth named tropical cyclone to form over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean during 2014 and it is the eleventh to reach hurricane intensity.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Polo was located at latitude 16.4°N and longitude 104.6°W which put it about 180 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Polo was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. and the minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

The movement of Polo has varied as the circulation has tightened around the core and more well defined spiral bands have developed.  In recent hours it has exhibited a more west-northwesterly motion after moving more toward the northwest earlier in the day.  Polo appears to be being steered mostly by an upper level high over Mexico.  The upper level high should steer Polo on a track that is roughly parallel to the west coast of Mexico.  Many of the numerical models are predicting that Polo will pass southwest of Baja California, but as Hurricane Odile showed, it could take a track closer to the coast.

Polo is moving over warm Sea Surface Temperatures and further intensification is likely.  As the organization of the circulation increases and an eye forms, a period of more rapid intensification is possible.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula.  A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes.

 

Hurricane Odile Bringing Winds/Rain to Baja California

Hurricane Odile is bringing strong winds and heavy rain to portions of Baja California as it moves up the peninsula.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Odile was located at latitude 24.7°N and longitude 111.3°W which put it about 90 miles south of Loreto, Mexico.  Odile was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. and the minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.  When the center of Odile moved over the southern tip of Baja California during the night, it tied Hurricane Olivia (1967) as the strongest hurricane to make landfall in Baja California Sur in the satellite era.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos southward to the southern tip of Baja California and then northward to Santa Rosalia.  A Hurriane Watch is in effect from Punta Abreojos to Punta Eugenia.  Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect from Santa Rosalia northward to Bahia de Los Angeles, from Punta Eugenia northward to San Jose de Las Palomas, and from Altata to Bahia Kino.  Tropical Storm Watches are in effect from San Jose de Las Palomas northward to Cabo San Quintin, from Bahia de Los Angeles to San Felipe and from Bahia Kino to Puerto Libertad.

Odile is expected to continue moving over Baja California in the short term.  Interaction with the mountains in Baja California sometimes causes the upper parts of the circulations around tropical cyclones to be decoupled from the lower level rotation.  This makes track forecasts challenging because the upper and lower portions of the storms can go in different directions.  Odile or at least the upper and middle portions of the circulation could eventually turn more toward the north or north-northeast and some portion of Odile could spend a period of time over the Gulf of California.  It is possible that the low level circulation gets left behind and meanders along the west coast of Baja, California.

The mountains in Baja California should continue to weaken the circulation as long as the center remains over land.  If the circulation maintains a coherent vertical structure and moves over the Gulf of California, some re-intensification is possible.  The Sea Surface Temperatures in the Gulf of California are very warm.  Increased wind shear and land interaction will ultimately weaken Odile as it moves farther north.

The more northward track of Odile increases the potential for it to pull moist air into portions of the southwestern U.S. and some areas could see significant rainfall later this week.

 

Hurricane Odile Approaching Baja California

The center of Major Hurricane Odile is rapidly approaching the southern tip of Baja California.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Odile was located at latitude 22.6°N and longitude 109.6°W which put it about 30 miles southeast of the southern tip of Baja California.  Odile was moving toward the north-northwest at 17 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. and the minimum surface pressure was estimated to be 930 mb.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos southward to the southern tip of Baja California and then northward to Loreto.  A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos northward to Punta Eugenia.  Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for the portion of the coast from Loreto northward to Bahia San Juan Batista and from Punta Abreojos to Punta Eugenia.  Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for the portion of the coast from Punta Eugenia northward to San Jose de Las Palomas and from Altata to Bahia Kino.

Odile is moving more rapidly tonight and its current motion should bring the center very near the southern tip of Baja California during the next several hours.  It looks like Odile will move very close to the west coast of the Baja peninsula.  It could move along the coast or just offshore.  In either case Odile will bring strong winds and heavy rain to much of southern Baja California.

Odile went through an eyewall replacement cycle today.  A larger outer eye surrounded the smaller inner eye, which eventually dissipated.  The dissipation of the inner eye was accompanied by a minor decrease in the wind speed.  However, the larger outer eye also had an effect of increasing the radius of strong winds and the circulation around Odile is larger than it was before.

 

 

Hurricane Odile Intensifying Rapidly

Hurricane Odile is intensifying rapidly and it is very close to reaching Major Hurricane status.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Odile was located at latitude 17.9°N and longitude 116.1°W which put it about 165 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico and about 410 miles south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California.  Odile is moving more quickly now and it was moving toward the north-northwest at 12 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed has increased to 110 m.p.h. and the minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

As the upper level wind shear decreased over Odile, it entered a period of rapid intensification.  Odile is over warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and it is likely to reach Major Hurricane status on Sunday.  The size of the circulation around Odile has also increased and hurricane force winds extend outward an average of 35 miles from the center.

Odile has begun to move more quickly and it has been moving more northward than northwestward.  This motion has brought it closer to the coast and it has also caused the model guidance to shift the forecast track closer to the southern tip of Baja California.  The change in the predicted track of Odile prompted the government of Mexico to issue new watches and warnings.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Lazaro southward to the southern tip of Baja California and then northward to La Paz.  Hurricane Watches have been issued for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Lazaro northward to Puerto San Andresito and from La Paz northward to Loreto.  A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the portion of the coast from La Paz to Loreto.  The Tropical Storm Watch for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.  Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for the portion of the coast from Puerto San Andresito to Punta Abreojos and from Loreto to Mulege.

 

Odile Becomes a Hurricane

Tropical Storm Odile has intensified into a hurricane as it moves slowly toward the northwest off the west coast of Mexico.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Odile was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 106.0°W which put it about 200 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico and about 505 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Odile was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. and the minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

The upper level high over northern Mexico that was generating northeasterly winds over Odile has shifted eastward.  As a result, the upper level wind shear has decreased and Odile is intensifying.  Odile will be over warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) during the next several days and it should continue to intensify.  A period of more rapid intensification is possible.

The winds in the middle level steering Odile should keep pushing it in a northwesterly direction.  Much of the computer guidance suggests that Odile will pass south of the tip of Baja California and then move west of Baja.  It could take a path similar to the track taken by Hurricane Norbert.

The government of Mexico issued a new Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the coast of Baja California that extends from La Paz to Santa Fe.  A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes.

If Odile moves west of Baja California, southerly winds in the eastern half of the circulation could transport significant water vapor over the southwestern U.S.  In addition, a strong flow of moist air is occurring over northeastern Mexico associated with the northern portion of a tropical wave moving inland in that area.  The combination of these two flows of moist air could create a potential for locally heavy rains over parts of the southwestern U.S. next week.

 

Tropical Storm Odile Forms West of Mexico

Tropical Storm Odile formed west of Mexico on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Odile was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 103.5°W which put it about 195 miles south-southwest of Lazaro Cardenas and about 245 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Odile was moving toward the northwest at 3 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. and the minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

An upper level high pressure system over northern Mexico is generating northeasterly winds over Odile, which is creating moderate wind shear over the storm.  The shear is likely to continue in the short-term and then it will lessen.  Shear will likely limit the rate at which Odile intensifies during the next 12-24 hours.  However, if the shear lessens in a day or so, then Odile will be in an environment favorable for intensification with warm Sea Surface Temperatures and a period or more rapid intensification is possible.  Odile has a good chance of becoming a hurricane and there is a possibility that it could reach Major Hurricane intensity.

The mid level winds that would steer Odile are relatively light and so it is likely to move slowly in a general northwest or west-northwest direction.  With weak steering flow erratic motion may occur and the center could even be quasi-stationary at times.  An east-west mid-level ridge of high pressure over the Florida and the northeastern Gulf of Mexico will shift westward and eventually provide a stronger west-northwest or northwest steering flow for Odile.  As a result Odile will likely move roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico toward the southern tip of Baja California.  Recent indications suggest that the center will move west of Baja California like Hurricane Norbert did.

Although it looks less likely that the center of Odile will make landfall on the west coast of Mexico, uncertainty exists about the ultimate size of the wind field when Odile intensifies.  The Mexican government has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the portion of the coast from Lazaro Cardenas northward to Manzanillo as a precaution in case the wind field expands to the point where tropical storm force winds reach the coast.

 

Norbert Reaches Major Hurricane Status

Despite being close to land and near much cooler Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) Hurricane Norbert intensified rapidly during the overnight hours and it has maximum sustained winds of 120 m.p.h.  This makes Norbert a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale and it is considered to be a Major Hurricane.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Norbert was located at latitude 24.8°N and longitude 113.8°W which put it about 95 miles west of Cabo San Lazaro and about 220 miles south-southeast of Punta Eugenia, Mexico.  Norbert was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was estimated to be 957 mb.

The government of Mexico has adjusted the warnings issued for Norbert.  The Hurricane Warning has been discontinued.  Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect for the portion of the coast from Santa Fe to Punta Eugenia and from San Evaristo to Loreto.

Norbert is expected to continue to move toward the northwest this weekend.  It will soon move over much cooler SSTs.  Once Norbert moves into that environment it will encounter much cooler, more stable air which will begin to lessen the convection.  As Norbert extracts less energy from the ocean and convection transports less energy upward, the circulation will begin to spin down.

The remnants of Norbert’s circulation could turn northeast and cross northern Baja California into the southwestern U.S. next week.  It is also possible that as the circulation around Norbert weakens, the upper and lower portions could decouple.  The upper and middle portion of the circulation could move over the southwestern U.S. and enhance the probability for rainfall there, while the lower level circulation remains nearly stationary and dissipates west of Baja California.

 

Norbert intensifies into Category 2 Hurricane

Hurricane Norbert has intensified in recent hours and the maximum sustained wind speed is now 110 m.p.h. which puts the hurricane at the high end of Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  The slow movement of Norbert has allowed the core of the hurricane to remain over Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) near 29°C.  The input of energy from the ocean has fueled convection around the eye.  The slow motion west of Baja California may have also allowed the inner core to tighten up and the mountains of Baja may have also reduced the vertical shear.  All of these factors have produced a more intense hurricane.

The center of Norbert is about 50 miles southwest of Cabo San Lazaro.  The hurricane force winds are still offshore, but some portions of the coast may be experiencing tropical storm force winds.  It is also possible that heavy rain may be falling in areas where the wind direction is enhancing the upslope motion.

Norbert should move over cooler SSTs during the weekend.  Less energy and more stable atmospheric conditions will result in decreased convection and the circulation around Norbert should start to spin down.

 

Hurricane Norbert a little stronger

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that Hurricane Norbert was little stronger than was estimated based on satellite imagery.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Norbert was located at latitude 20.8°N and longitude 110.6°W which put it about 150 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Norbert has been moving somewhat erratically, but the estimated motion was toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h.  The aircraft found that the maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. and the minimum surface pressure was 970 mb.

Norbert is expected to move generally toward the northwest during the next several days and to move roughly parallel to the west coast of Baja California.  Although the center is expected to remain offshore, winds to tropical storm force may reach parts of Baja California.  For that reason a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the portion of the coast that extends from La Paz southward to the southern tip of Baja California and then northward to Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.  Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for the portions of the coast from La Paz northward to San Evaristo and from Cabo San Lazaro northward to Puerto San Andresito.

The eye appears to be becoming more evident on visible satellite images.  There is some upper level shear from the northeast, but some additional intensification is possible during the next 24 hours.  When Norbert begins to move west of Baja California it will move over a very strong gradient of Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) toward colder water.  It will move from SSTs near 30°C to SSTs near 23°C.  The colder SSTs will greatly reduce the energy available to drive the circulation.  In addition, the atmosphere tends to be quite stable over the cooler SSTs, which will further inhibit convection and help to spin down the circulation.

Where the wind direction creates a flow up the slopes of mountains, locally heavy rainfall could occur and the potential for flooding exists in some locations.  Southerly flow around the eastern side of Norbert’s weakening circulation could transport moisture into portions of the southwestern U.S.

 

Tropical Storm Norbert Intensifying

Tropical Storm Norbert is becoming more organized as it moves in the general direction of Baja California.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT the center of Norbert was located at latitude 19.7°N and longitude 108.3°W which put it about 245 miles south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California.  Norbert was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. and the minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.  The Tropical Storm Watch for the portion of the coast from La Paz to Sante Fe, Mexico has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning.  A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the portion of the coast from Sante Fe northward to Cabo San Lazaro.

Norbert is over warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and the upper level wind shear appears to be decreasing.  Some satellite imagery is indicating that an eye could be forming in the mid-levels of the circulation.  Further intensification is likely and a period of more rapid intensification is possible.  Norbert could become a hurricane before it reaches cooler SSTs west of Baja California.