Tag Archives: Honshu

Typhoon Soulik Strikes Cheju Island

Typhoon Soulik struck Cheju Island on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Soulik was located at latitude 33.0°N and longitude 125.7°E which put it about 50 miles (80 km) west of Cheju Island.  Soulik was moving toward the north-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

Typhoon Soulik had a large eye and the eastern eyewall, which was the strongest part of the circulation, moved directly over Cheju Island on Wednesday.  The island would have experienced winds to typhoon force and heavy rain.  The heavy rain could produce flash floods.  Typhoon Soulik weakened as it approached Cheju.  The circulation appeared to draw some drier air around the western and southern side of the circulation.  The heaviest rain was falling in the northern and eastern quadrants of the typhoon.  Soulik was moving over cooler water and an upper level trough over eastern Asia was causing vertical wind shear.

The upper level trough will turn Typhoon Soulik toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Soulik could pass near the southwestern tip of South Korea in about 12 hours.  Soulik could make landfall near Kunsan in about 24 hours.  The eastern side of Typhoon Soulik, which is the stronger side, will pass over much of South Korea during the next 24 hours.  Soulik will produce gusty winds and it will drop locally heavy rain.  The rain could produce flash floods on the Korean peninsula.

Elsewhere over the tropical Western North Pacific Ocean, Typhoon Cimaron moved closer to Japan.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Cimaron was located at latitude 29.4°N and longitude 135.6°E which put it about 335 miles (540 km) south of Osaka, Japan.  Cimaron was moving toward the northwest at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Typhoon Cimaron is forecast to move quickly toward Japan during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Cimaron will approach the coasts of Shikoku and Honshu between Tokushima and Tanabe in about 12 hours.  Cimaron is forecast to be a typhoon when it makes landfall in Japan.  It will bring strong winds and Cimaron will drop locally heavy rain.  Flash floods could occur, especially in regions of steeper terrain.

Typhoon Soulik Threatens South Korea, Cimaron Heads Toward Japan

Typhoon Soulik threatened South Korea on Tuesday night and Typhoon Cimaron headed toward Japan.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Soulik was located at latitude 30.8°N and longitude 127.3°E which put it about 200 miles (320 km) south-southeast of Cheju, South Korea.  Soulik was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

There was a large eye with a diameter of 65 miles (105 km) at the center of Typhoon Soulik.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surround the eye, but there were some breaks in the ring of storms.  The strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Soulik.  Winds to typhoon force extended out about 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 250 miles (400 km) from the center.

Typhoon Soulik will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Soulik more toward the north during the next 24 to 36 hours.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Soulik will be near Cheju Island in 18 to 24 hours.  Soulik could be near Seoul, South Korea in less than 48 hours.   Typhoon Soulik will move over cooler water when it moves northward.  Vertical wind shear will also increase as an upper level trough approaches the typhoon from the west.  Soulik is likely to be a typhoon when it approaches Cheju Island.  It will drop heavy rain over South Korea and there will be a risk for flash floods.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Cimaron was located at latitude 24.8°N and longitude 139.3°E which put it about 95 miles (150 km) west-southwest of Iwo To.  Cimaron was moving toward the northwest at 19 m.p.h. (31 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 944 mb.

Upper level divergence from Typhoon Soulik had less of an effect on the outflow from Typhoon Cimaron and Cimaron strengthened on Tuesday.  Typhoon Cimaron strengthened into the equivalent of a major hurricane.  Cimaron was moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge.   On its anticipated track Typhoon Cimaron could be near the coast of Shikoku and Honshu in about 36 hours.

Large Typhoon Soulik Nears Ryukyu Islands, Cimaron Brushes Northern Marianas

Large Typhoon Soulik neared the Ryukyu Islands on Monday night, while Typhoon Cimaron brushed the Northern Mariana Islands.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Soulik was located at latitude 28.0°N and longitude 131.7°E which put it about 160 miles (260 km) south-southeast of Yaku Shima, Japan.  Soulik was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h. (215 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

A large circular eye with a diameter of 50 miles (80 km) developed at the center of Typhoon Soulik.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in the ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Soulik.  The strongest rainbands were occurring in the eastern half of the circulation.  Winds around the core Soulik were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon.

Typhoon Soulik has a large circulation.  Winds to typhoon force extend out about 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 230 miles (370 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Soulik was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 23.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 44.1.

The large symmetrical structure of Typhoon Soulik will allow it to maintain its intensity for a longer period than a smaller tropical cyclone.  Soulik will move through an environment during the next 24 to 36 hours that will support a strong typhoon.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through an environment where the vertical wind shear will not be too strong.

Typhoon Soulik will move around the western end of ridge centered north of Japan.  The ridge will steer Soulik toward the northwest for another 24 to 36 hours.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Soulik will move over the northern Ryukyu Islands on Tuesday.  Soulik could approach South Korea within 36 hours.

Typhoon Cimaron brushed the northernmost Mariana Islands on Monday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Cimaron was located at latitude 20.5°N and longitude 144.5°E which put it about 90 miles (145 km) north-northwest of Agrihan.  Cimaron was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

Typhoon Cimaron is forecast to be near Iwo To in about 24 hours.  Cimaron could approach Honshu within 48 hours.  Upper level divergence from Typhoon Soulik is inhibiting the divergence on the western side of Cimaron.  The effects of Soulik will reduce the potential intensification of Typhoon Cimaron, but Cimaron could strengthen slowly during the next day or two.

Typhoon Soulik Moves Toward Ryukyu Islands, Cimaron Approaches Northern Marianas

Typhoon Soulik moved toward the northern Ryukyu Islands on Sunday and Typhoon Cimaron approached the Northern Mariana Islands.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Soulik was located at latitude 25.9°N and longitude 135.8°E which put it about 450 miles (730 km) east-southeast of Yaku Shima.  Soulik was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

The structure of Typhoon Soulik changed on Sunday.  A large circular eye with a diameter or 45 miles (75 km) developed at the center of circulation.  A circular ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye.  The ring was thinner on the western side of the eye and there may have been breaks in the ring.  Several bands of thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Soulik.  Storms around the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 195 miles (315 km) from the center.

Typhoon Soulik will move through an environment that should allow it to maintain its intensity for another day or two.  Soulik will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level ridge north of Japan will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the typhoon, but the winds will not cause significant vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Soulik could weaken a little, but it is likely to maintain most of its strength for another 24 to 48 hours.

Typhoon Soulik will move around the western end of the ridge north of Japan.  The ridge will steer Soulik toward the northwest for another 36 to 48 hours.  When Soulik reaches the western end of the ridge, it will turn toward the north.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Soulik could reach the northern Ryukyu Islands in about 36 hours.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Cimaron was located at latitude 17.3°N and longitude 148.5°E which put it about 240 miles (390 km) east-northeast of Saipan.  Cimaron was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.  A Typhoon Warning was in effect for Agrihan, Pagan, Almagan.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Saipan and Tinian.

Typhoon Cimaron will move through an environment that could allow it to intensify during the next several days.  Cimaron will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  Upper level divergence from Typhoon Soulik could inhibit the divergence generated by Cimaron on the northern side of the circulation.  Typhoon Cimaron is likely to intensify during the next day or two,

Typhoon Cimaron will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge will steer Cimaron toward the northwest during the next two or three days.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Cimaron will move over the Northern Marianas during the next 12 to 18 hours.  Cimaron could reach Iwo To within 48 hours and it could be south of Honshu in about three days.

Tropical Storm Cimaron Prompts Warnings for Northern Marianas, Soulik Strengthens West of Iwo To

Tropical Storm Cimaron developed east of the Northern Marianas on Saturday and it prompted Typhoon Warnings for some of the islands, while Typhoon Soulik strengthened west of Iwo To.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Cimaron was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 151.6°E which put it about 420 miles (675 km) east of Saipan.  Cimaron was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.  A Typhoon Warning was in effect for Agrihan, Pagan and Almagan.

A distinct center of circulation developed in an area of thunderstorms east of the Northern Marianas on Saturday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Cimaron.  Numerous bands of showers and thunderstorms developed around the circulation of Tropical Storm Cimaron.  The rainbands west and south of the center of circulation were stronger than the bands east and north of the center.  An inner bands of thunderstorms started to wrap around the south side of the center.  Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence.

Tropical Storm Cimaron will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Cimaron will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  Tropical Storm Cimaron will move through an area where it will be near the upper level divergence from Typhoon Soulik.  Tropical Storm Cimaron is forecast to stay just southeast of the divergence from Soulik.  If it does that, Cimaron will strengthen into a typhoon during the next few days.  However, if Cimaron moves under the upper level divergence from Typhoon Soulik, then the vertical wind shear will keep Cimaron from strengthening.

Typhoon Soulik strengthened into the equivalent of a major hurricane west of Iwo To on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Soulik was located at latitude 25.2°N and longitude 138.8°E which put it about 145 miles (235 km) west-northwest of Iwo To.  Soulik was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h. (215 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

Typhoon Soulik is well organized.  There is a circular eye at the center of circulation.  The eye is surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds are occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the core of Soulik.  Storms near the core are generating strong upper level divergence which is pumping mass away in all directions.  Winds to typhoon force extend out about 50 miles (80 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 170 miles (280 km) from the center.

Typhoon Soulik will move through an area favorable for strong typhoons.  Soulik will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Soulik could maintain its intensity for another 24 to 48 hours.

Typhoon Soulik will move around the western end of a ridge in the middle troposphere.  The ridge will steer Soulik in a general northwesterly direction.  On it anticipated track Typhoon Soulik will move toward the Ryukyu Islands.  Tropical Storm Cimaron will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  On its anticipated track, Cimaron will move near the northern Marianas in 24 to 36 hours.  Tropical Storm Cimaron could approach Iwo To in about three days.

Typhoon Shanshan Brushes East Coast of Honshu

Typhoon Shanshan brushed the east coast of Honshu late on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Shanshan was located at latitude 36.8°N and longitude 141.5°E which put it about 40 miles (65 km) east of Iwaki, Japan.  Shanshan was moving toward the north at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

The center of Typhoon Shanshan moved very close to the east coast of Honshu near Choshi on Wednesday and then it moved nearly parallel to the coast.  The stronger winds and heavier rain were occurring on the eastern side of Shanshan, and they passed east of Honshu.  The winds were weaker and the rain was lighter in the western side of Typhoon Shanshan.  Winds to tropical storm force were occurring near the east coast of Honshu.  The typhoon had little effect on the weather near Tokyo.  Some locations near the coast did have a period of heavier rain after the center of Typhoon Shanshan passed and the winds blew from the southwest toward the coast.

Typhoon Shanshan will affect the coast of Honshu for another six to twelve hours, while the center moves nearly parallel to the coast.  Shanshan will reach an area where stronger westerly winds are blowing in the middle and upper troposphere.  Those winds will turn Typhoon Shanshan toward the east and they will push it away from Japan.  The stronger winds will also cause significant vertical wind shear.  Shanshan will move over cooler water when it turns eastward.  The combination of vertical wind shear and cooler water will cause Typhoon Shanshan to weaken and it could make a transition to an extratropical cyclone in a day or two.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific, Tropical Storm Yagi formed southeast of Okinawa on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT the center of Tropical Storm Yagi was located at latitude 21.3°N and longitude 133.6°E which put it about 530 miles (855 km) southeast of Okinawa.  Yagi was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Typhoon Shanshan Moves Closer to Honshu

Typhoon Shanshan moved steadily closer to Honshu on Tuesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Shanshan was located at latitude 33.7°N and longitude 141.6°E which put it about 190 miles (305 km) southeast of Tokyo.  Shanshan was moving toward the north-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 965 mb.

Typhoon Shanshan intensified earlier on Tuesday and it started to weaken on Tuesday night.  There was a circular eye at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Shanshan.  The rainbands south and east of the center were stronger and the rainbands north and west of the center were weaker.  Storms near the core of Shanshan were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 220 miles (350 km) from the center.

Typhoon Shanshan will move through an environment on Wednesday that should allow it to remain a typhoon until it reaches Japan.  Shanshan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weaker and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Shanshan will move into a region in a day or so where stronger upper level winds will blow from the west.  Vertical wind shear will increase at that time and Typhoon Shanshan will start to weaken more quickly.

Typhoon Shanshan will move around the western end of a ridge over the North Pacific Ocean and the ridge will steer the typhoon toward the north on Wednesday.  When Shanshan gets close to the coast of Honshu, the westerly winds will turn the typhoon toward the east.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Shanshan could make landfall on the coast of Honshu east of Tokyo in 18 to 24 hours.  Shanshan will bring gusty winds and it could drop heavy rain over coastal regions of eastern Honshu.

Typhoon Shanshan Moves Toward Japan

Typhoon Shanshan moved toward Japan on Monday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Shanshan was located at latitude 29.2°N and longitude 145.3°E which put it about 585 miles (940 km) southeast of Tokyo, Japan.  Shanshan was moving toward the north-northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (155 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 971 mb.

Typhoon Shanshan weakened slightly during the past 24 hours.  It appeared that some drier air may have been pulled into the western half of the circulation.  There was still a circular eye at the center of circulation, but there were breaks in the ring of thunderstorms around the eye.  There were several bands of stronger storms in the eastern and southern parts of the circulation.  Bands north and west of the center of Shanshan consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms in the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon.

Typhoon Shanshan will move through an environment that should allow it to remain a typhoon for several more days.  Shanshan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Drier air north and west of Typhoon Shanshan will inhibit the formation of taller thunderstorms in that part of the typhoon and the drier air will limit the potential for intensification.

Typhoon Shanshan will move around the western side of a subtropical ridge over the North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Shanshan in a general north-northwesterly direction for another two or three days.  When Typhoon Shanshan nears Honshu, an southwesterly winds on the east side of an upper level trough will start to steer the typhoon toward the northeast.  There is still uncertainty about when and where the turn toward then northeast will occur and Typhoon Shanshan could be close to Tokyo in about three days.

Shanshan Strengthens to a Typhoon Southeast of Japan

Former Tropical Storm Shanshan strengthened into a typhoon southeast of Japan on Saturday.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Shanshan was located at latitude 21.2°N and longitude 148.5°E which put it about 245 miles (395 km) northeast of Agrihan.  Shashan was moving toward the north-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

A primary rainband wrapped around the center of circulation and an eye was developing at the center of Typhoon Shanshan.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Shanshan.  The strongest rainbands were south and east of the center of circulation.  Bands north and west of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms around the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon.  Shanshan has a large circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 190 miles (305 km) from the center of circulation.

Typhoon Shanshan will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 48 hours.  Shanshan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Shanshan will intensify and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Typhoon Shanshan will move around the western portion of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Shanshan in a north-northwesterly direction.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Shanshan will pass east of Iwo To in 24 to 36 hours.  Shanshan could be just southeast of Honshu in about four days.

Tropical Storm Jongdari Heads Toward China

Tropical Storm Jongdari headed toward China late on Tuesday.  After dropping heavy rain on parts of Honshu and Kyushu, former Typhoon Jongdari weakened to a tropical storm.  Jongdari then was caught by the circulation of an upper level low south of Japan and the tropical storm made a slow counterclockwise loop south of Kyushu.  Tropical Storm Jongdari completed the loop and moved west toward China on Tuesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Jongdari was located at latitude 30.0°N and longitude 126.7°E which put it about 360 miles (575 km) east-southeast of Shanghai, China.  Jongdari was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Tropical Storm Jongdari moved around the circulation of an upper level low south of Japan on Sunday and Monday.  Strong upper winds rotating around the upper level low caused vertical wind shear which disrupted the upper part of Jongdari’s circulation.  However, the integrity of the lower level circulation remained intact.  There is a well defined low level circulation with bands of showers and thunderstorms revolving around the center of circulation.  Stronger upper level winds have periodically sheared the tops off of the taller thunderstorms.  New thunderstorms were forming near the center of circulation but it is unclear if those storms will persist.

Tropical Storm Jongdari will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification on Wednesday.  Jongdari will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  However the upper level low south of Japan and an upper level ridge over East Asia will combine to produce strong easterly winds which will blow across the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear which will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Storm Jongdari could intensify a little during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Jongdari will move south of a high pressure system near East Asia which will steer Jongdari in a general westerly direction.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Jongdari could approach the coast of China southeast of Shanghai in about 24 hours.  The center of Jongdari could be near Shanghai in about 36 hours.  Tropical Storm Jongdari will bring some gusty winds, but the greater risk will be locally heavy rainfall.  Heavy rain falling on very moist ground could cause flash floods over parts of eastern China.