Author Archives: jay_hobgood

Typhoon Phanfone Approaching Japan

Typhoon Phanfone is approaching the southwestern part of Japan.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT the center of Phanfone was located at latitude 28.9°N and longitude 131.4°E which put it about 200 miles south of Miyazaki, Japan and about 670 miles southwest of Tokyo.  Phanfone was moving toward the north at 9 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 140 m.p.h.

Phanfone is already bringing rain and wind to parts of southwestern Japan.  It could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall as it moves northeastward.  Phanfone is nearing the latitude of stronger upper level westerly winds.  Those winds will soon make Phanfone start to move toward the northeast.  Phanfone will move more quickly toward the northeast on Sunday afternoon and evening and it could be near Tokyo in about 24 hours.  The westerly winds will also increase the wind shear over Phanfone and create a weakening trend.  As more cooler air gets pulled into the circulation, Phanfone will begin a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

 

Simon Intensifies Into a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Simon intensified rapidly on Saturday and it is now a Major Hurricane.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT the center of Hurricane Simon was located at latitude 20.6°N and longitude 115.0°W which put it about 365 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California and about 495 miles south of Punta Eugenia, Mexico.  Simon was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. and the minimum surface pressure was 950 mb.

Simon is the 8th hurricane to reach Major Hurricane intensity over the Eastern North Pacific during 2014.  This ties the record for the most Major Hurricanes in one year in that basin, which was set previously in 1983, 1992 and 1993.

Simon is moving around the western edge of a ridge centered over northern Mexico.  It should turn more toward the north on Sunday.  As Simon moves farther north, it will eventually move toward the northeast.  It could approach Baja California by the middle of next week.

Simon may be on the threshold of an eyewall replacement cycle.  If it goes through one of those cycles, there will be some fluctuations in intensity.  When Simon moves west of Baja California it will move over cooler Sea Surface Temperatures and begin to weaken.  Simon is likely to be a weakening tropical cyclone when it nears Baja California.

 

Tropial Storm Simon Intensifying West of Mexico

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Simon was located at latitude 18.8°N and longitude 110.6°W which put it about 285 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Simon was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. and the minimum surface pressure was estimated to be 993 mb.

Simon appears to be developing a tight inner core and there are indications on visible satellite imagery that an eye might be forming.  Upper level winds have lessened and Simon is over warm Sea Surface Temperatures.  So, further intensification is likely and Simon will probably become a hurricane during the weekend.

Simon is being steered to the west-northwest by a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico.  It will likely turn more toward the north as it reaches the western extent of that ridge.  Guidance from the numerical models suggests two possibilities once Simon moves west of Baja California.  Some models are suggesting that it will turn northeastward and make landfall near the central portion of the Baja peninsula.  Another group of models is suggesting that Simon will weaken and stall west of Baja California.  It is too early to be certain which scenario is more likely.

Simon is the 18th named tropical cyclone to form over the Eastern North Pacific during 2014.  This equals the number of named tropical storms that formed over that region in 2013.

 

Tropical Storm Vongfong Forms East of Guam

A new tropical storm has formed east of Guam.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Vongfong was located at latitude 9.1°N and longitude 156.3°E which put it about 820 miles east-southeast of Saipan.  Vongfong was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 65 m.p.h.

Vongfong is being steered by the same subtropical high that is also steering Typhoon Phanfone.  Clockwise flow around the southern portion of the high should keep Vongfong moving toward the west-northwest for the next several days.

Vongfong is over warm Sea Surface Temperatures and it has well developed upper level outflow.  The favorable environment should allow Vongfong to intensify and it is likely to become a typhoon during the weekend.  The projected path of Vongfong would take it near or just to the north of Guam in about 48 to 72 hours.

 

Typhoon Phanfone Turns Northwards

Strong Typhoon Phanfone has reached the western edge of a subtropical high pressure system and it is making the expected turn toward the north.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Phanfone was located at latitude 24.0°N and longitude 134.0°E which put it about 870 miles south-southwest of Tokyo, Japan.  Phanfone was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 150 m.p.h.

Phanfone went through an eyewall replacement cycle on Thursday in which the small inner eye dissipated and a much larger eye became apparent on satellite imagery.  The eyewall replacement cycle kept the intensity of Phanfone relatively constant.  Now that the inner eye is gone, the outer eye is likely to contract.  Phanfone remains over warm Sea Surface Temperatures and it is a favorable atmospheric environment.  So, some further intensification is possible during the next 24 hours.  In 24 to 36 hours Phanfone will be far enough north to begin to be influenced by upper level westerly winds.  The stronger upper level winds will increase wind shear over Phanfone and start a weakening process.  A combination of stronger wind shear and colder air to the north of Phanfone will initiate a process whereby it is transformed from a tropical cyclone to an extratropical cyclone.  It is difficult to determine the exact timing of the extratropical transition and Phanfone will be a powerful extratropical cyclone as it moves across the North Pacific.

Phanfone should gradually turn more toward the north during the next 24 hours as it moves around the western edge of the subtropical high pressure system.  It is likely to take a sharper turn to the northeast later in the weekend when it encounters the upper level westerlies.  Phanfone is likely to approach southern Japan in 36 to 48 hours.  Some models are indicating that it could cross parts of Central Japan, while other models keep the center south of Japan.  In either case Phanfone has the potential to brig locally heavy rain and gusty winds to portions of Japan.

 

Tropical Depression 19E Forms West of Mexico

The active hurricane season over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean continues.  An area of thunderstorms west of Mexico developed a surface circulation and a core of convection near the center.  As a result it was classified as Tropical Depression Nineteen-E (TD19E).  At 11:00 p.m. EDT the center of TD19E was located at latitude 17.8°N and longitude 105.4°W which put it about 110 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico and about 455 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California.  TD19E was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. and the minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

The same upper level ridge of high pressure over northern Mexico that has been in place during much of the hurricane season will steer TD19E toward the west-northwest during the next day or two.  As TD19E rounds the western edge of the ridge it will turn more toward the north and it could follow a path similar to the one taken by Hurricane Rachel.

The upper level ridge is producing some northeasterly winds and wind shear over TD19E.  The shear is forecast to weaken and some intensification of TD19E is likely while it remains over warm Sea Surface Temperatures.

 

Typhoon Phanfone Intensifying Rapidly

A very favorable environment of warm Sea Surface Temperatures and light upper level winds is allowing Typhoon Phanfone to intensify rapidly.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Phanfone was located at latitude 19.5°N and longitude 139.0°E which put it about 400 miles south-southwest of Iwo To.  Phanfone was moving toward the west-northwest at 17 m.p.h.  It had maximum sustained winds of 120 m.p.h. and gusts to 150 m.p.h.

Phanfone is moving around the western end of the subtropical high pressure system and its track should take a more northward turn.  When Phanfone gets to a higher latitude, it will encounter the upper level westerly flow which will turn it northeastward.  Guidance from numerical models suggest that Phanfone could be south of Japan in about 72 hours.

Phanfone will be in a favorable environment during the next 36 hours and further intensification is possible.  When Phanfone encounters the upper level westerly flow, wind shear will increase and it will start to weaken.  Phanfone will eventually make a transition to an extratropical cyclone as it moves northeastward over the North Pacific.

 

Tropical Storm Phanfone Forms East of Guam

A large area of low pressure east of Guam developed a core of thunderstorms and sufficient organization to prompt its classification as Tropical Storm Phanfone.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Phanfone was located at latitude 15.4°N and longitude 148.3°W which put it about 160 miles east of Saipan.  Phanfone was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 65 m.p.h.

Phanfone is expected to continue to move in a northwesterly direction for the next two or three days as it moves around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system.  Later in the week it is expected to take a more northerly turn and it could be south of Japan by the weekend.

Both the oceanic and atmospheric environment around Phanfone’s projected track appear favorable for intensification.  Phanfone is expected to become a typhoon later this week and a period of more rapid intensification is possible.  Eventually, as Phanfone moves farther north, westerly winds in the upper levels will increase wind shear and begin a weakening trend.

 

Rachel Intensifies into a Hurricane

The northeasterly winds in the upper levels that were generating wind shear over Tropical Storm Rachel lessened on Saturday and it intensified into the 12th Eastern North Pacific hurricane of 2014.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Rachel was located at latitude 20.7°N and longitude 116.6°W which put it about 455 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Rachel was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed increased to 85 m.p.h. and the minimum surface pressure decreased to 982 mb.

An upper level ridge over northern Mexico that was generating northeasterly winds over the top of Rachel weakened as a large upper level trough moved over the western U.S.  As the vertical wind shear decreased, a ring of thunderstorms developed around the core of the circulation.  The formation of an eye and a tight inner core allowed the wind speed to increase rapidly to hurricane intensity.  The core of Rachel will remain in an environment that could support further intensification during the next 12-18 hours.  Eventually, the upper level trough will increase the wind shear again and the hurricane will move over cooler Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs).  Those factors will produce a weakening trend early next week.

The upper level trough is helping to pull Rachel northward.  However, it looks like the trough will move eastward before it can sweep Rachel toward the northeast.  Recent guidance from the numerical models suggest that as the trough moves away to the east, Rachel will stall.  If it stalls over cooler SSTs, then it will be steered more by lower level winds, once the tall thunderstorms around the eye dissipate.  Those winds could push the lower level remnant circulation slowly toward the west or southwest;

 

Tropical Storm Kammuri Develops North of Guam

A tropical depression north of Guam intensified into Tropical Storm Kammuri on Thursday.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Kammuri was located at latitude 21.7°N and longitude 146.3°E which put it about 375 miles east-southeast of Iwo To.  Kammuri was moving toward the north-northwest at 8 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h.
Kammuri is moving around the western edge of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge should continue to steer Kammuri toward the north until it begins to feel the effects of the upper level westerly winds.  The upper level westerlies should eventually turn Kammuri toward the northeast and the probability is high that it will pass southeast of Japan.
Kammuri is in a region of moderate wind shear and further intensification is possible.  It is also possible that Kammuri could reach typhoon intensity before the upper level westerly winds start to increase the wind shear.