Category Archives: Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic TCs

Tropical Wave Moves Toward Windward Islands

A tropical wave designated as Invest 94L moved toward the Windward Islands on Sunday. There was a broad counterclockwise rotation in the lower levels of the wave. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of the broad rotation was located at latitude 7.8°N and longitude 42.8°W which put it about 1250 miles (2015 km) east-southeast of the Windward Islands. The tropical wave was moving toward the west at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

A tropical wave designated as Invest 94L was located midway between Africa and the Windward Islands on Sunday morning. Loops of visible satellite images showed that a broad counterclockwise rotation was occurring in the lower levels of the tropical wave. There were mostly showers and lower clouds near the center of the broad rotation. Many of the thunderstorms were in the western and northern parts of the tropical wave. The southern eastern parts of the wave contained showers and lower clouds.

The tropical wave will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the tropical wave toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track the tropical wave could approach the Windward Islands on Tuesday.

The tropical wave will move into an environment that is favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone. The wave will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move through a region where the winds in the troposphere will blow from the east at most levels and there will be little vertical wind shear. The circulation around the tropical wave could gradually become more organized during the next few days. The National Hurricane Center is indicating the probability is 70% that the tropical wave develops into a tropical depression during the next five days. A NOAA aircraft is tentatively scheduled to investigate the tropical wave on Monday, if necessary.

Strong Tropical Wave over Eastern Atlantic

A strong tropical wave was over the eastern Atlantic Ocean on Thursday night. The tropical wave was designated as Invest 94L. It was located along longitude 27.0°W which put it about 2200 miles (3560 km) east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles. The tropical wave was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1012 mb.

The axis of a strong tropical wave, also designated as Invest 94L, was located along longitude 27.0°W. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring south of latitude 11.0°N. Satellite derived data indicated that there was some rotation near the axis of the wave. Thunderstorms near the axis of the tropical wave generated upper level divergence.

The tropical wave will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the tropical wave toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track the tropical wave could approach the Lesser Antilles on Tuesday.

The tropical wave will move through an environment that is favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone. The wave will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. It will move through a region where the winds in the troposphere will blow from the east at most levels and there will be little vertical wind shear. The National Hurricane Center is indicating the probability is 40% that the tropical wave develops into a tropical depression during the next five days.

Possible Development over Southwest Caribbean Sea

A tropical depression or tropical storm could develop over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea east of Nicaragua during the next few days. An area of low pressure at the surface, currently designated as Invest 93L, is over that area. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Invest 93L was located at latitude 11.8°N and longitude 82.2°W which put it about 110 miles (175 km) east of Bluefields, Nicaragua. Invest 93L was moving toward the west-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

Invest 93L was located on the eastern side of a larger area of low pressure that extends from the Southwestern Caribbean Sea across Central America to the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. A second, small low pressure system, currently designated as Invest 93E, was located over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of El Salvador. Visible satellite images appeared to show some counterclockwise rotation of lower clouds over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea east of Nicaragua. A few thunderstorms formed near the apparent center of circulation, but the system did not possess enough organization to be classified as a tropical depression.

Invest 93L will be in an environment that is somewhat favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone during the next few days. Invest 93L will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. If Invest 93L remains over the Southwest Caribbean Sea, it could develop into a tropical depression during the next 48 hours. However, if the center of Invest 93L moves inland over Nicaragua, then it will not develop. The National Hurricane Center is indicating there is a probability of 40% that Invest 93L develops into a tropical cyclone. A reconnaissance plane has been tentatively tasked to investigate Invest 93L on Wednesday afternoon, if necessary.

Invest 93L will move near the southwestern part of a high pressure system that extends from the Western Atlantic Ocean over the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. The steering winds are weak near the southwestern part of the high pressure system, but those winds could steer Invest 93L slowly toward the northwest during the next few days. On its anticipated track, Invest 93L will move close to the coast of Nicaragua. Invest 93L could drop heavy rain over parts of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica and El Salvador. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some places.

Tropical Storm Alex Brings Gusty Winds to Bermuda

Tropical Storm Alex brought gusty winds to Bermuda on Monday morning. At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Alex was located at latitude 33.8°N and longitude 65.1°W which put it about 100 miles (160 km) north-northwest of Bermuda. Alex was moving toward the east-northeast at 28 m.p.h. (44 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Bermuda.

Tropical Storm Alex brought gusty winds to Bermuda on Monday morning as the center of Alex was passing north of the island. A Bermuda Weather Service buoy at Crescent Reef reported a sustained wind speed of 55 m.p.h. (89 km/h) with gusts to 72 m.p.h. (116 km/h). The Bermuda airport reported a sustained wind speed of 39 m.p.h. (63 km/h) with gusts to 59 m.p.h. (95 km/h).

Tropical Storm Alex was in the middle of a transition to an extratropical cyclone when it passed north of Bermuda on Monday morning. The bands near the center of Alex consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Thunderstorms were occurring in a band located 200 miles (320 km) southeast of the center of Tropical Storm Alex. An upper level trough near the East Coast of the U.S. was producing strong westerly winds that were blowing across the top of Alex’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear. Drier air was being pulled into the center of Tropical Storm Alex. Alex was also moving over cooler Sea Surface Temperatures. The combination of vertical wind shear, drier air and cooler water was causing the transition to an extratropical cyclone.

Tropical Storm Alex will continue to move through an environment favorable for the transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Alex will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 24˚C. The upper level trough will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear and the drier air will inhibit the formation of thunderstorms near the center of Alex’s circulation. Tropical Storm Alex could complete a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough near the East Coast of the U.S. will steer Tropical Storm Alex quickly toward the east-northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated path Tropical Storm Alex will move quickly away from Bermuda on Monday afternoon. Wind speeds will decrease on Bermuda as Alex moves farther away.

Tropical Storm Alex Strengthens West of Bermuda

Tropical Storm Alex strengthened over the Atlantic Ocean west of Bermuda on Sunday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Alex was located at latitude 31.5°N and longitude 71.5°W which put it about 395 miles (640 km) west of Bermuda. Alex was moving toward the east-northeast at 28 m.p.h. (44 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Bermuda.

A reconnaissance flight found that Tropical Storm Alex intensified west of Bermuda on Sunday afternoon. Even though Alex strengthened, the distribution of thunderstorms remained asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern and northern parts of Tropical Storm Alex. The strongest winds were occurring in those bands of storms. Bands in the western part of Alex’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) in the eastern half of Tropical Storm Alex. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the western half of the circulation.

An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. was producing westerly winds that were blowing toward the top of Tropical Storm Alex’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear. The circulation around Alex was also pulling some drier air into the western half of the tropical storm. A combination of vertical wind shear and drier air were contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Storm Alex will move through an environment that will become less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Alex will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25˚C. The upper level trough over eastern U.S. will continue to produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Alex. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The drier in the western half of Alex’s circulation will also inhibit intensification. Tropical Storm Alex could strengthen a little more during the next 12 hours. However, cooler Sea Surface Temperatures, vertical wind shear and drier air are likely to cause Alex to weaken on Monday. Alex could make a transition to an extratropical cyclone over the Atlantic Ocean during the middle of the week.

The upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will steer Tropical Storm Alex toward the east-northeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Alex will affect Bermuda on Monday. Alex will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to Bermuda. Heavy rain could cause flash floods. Since the and strongest winds and heaviest rain are in the eastern half of Alex, they could begin to affect Bermuda on Sunday night.

Tropical Storm Alex Develops East of Florida, Warning Issued for Bermuda

Tropical Storm Alex developed over the Atlantic Ocean east of Florida on Sunday morning and a Tropical Storm Warning was issued for Bermuda. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Alex was located at latitude 29.1°N and longitude 76.3°W which put it about 270 miles (435 km) east-northeast of Ft. Pierce, Florida. Alex was moving toward the northeast at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Bermuda.

A more persistent and more well defined center of circulation formed in former Potential Tropical Cyclone One on Sunday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Alex. The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Alex continued to be asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of Alex’s circulation. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. was producing westerly winds that were blowing toward the top of Tropical Storm Alex. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear was causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) in the eastern side of Alex. Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the western half of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Alex will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Alex will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. The upper level trough over eastern U.S. and an upper level ridge over the western Atlantic Ocean will interact to produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Alex. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The vertical shear will somewhat inhibit intensification. However, the upper level ridge will also enhance the upper level divergence over Alex. More upper level divergence would cause the surface pressure to decrease. Tropical Storm Alex could strengthen during the next 24 hours. There is a slight chance Alex could intensify to a hurricane.

The upper level trough over the eastern U.S. and the upper level ridge over the western Atlantic Ocean will steer Tropical Storm Alex toward the east-northeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Alex will affect Bermuda on Monday. Alex will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to Bermuda. Heavy rain could cause flash floods.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Drops Heavy Rain on South Florida

Potential Tropical Cyclone One dropped heavy rain on South Florida during Friday night and Saturday morning. There were reports of up to 10 inches of rain falling on locations in the area around Miami. The heavy rain caused urban and street flooding in some locations. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone One was located at latitude 27.0°N and longitude 82.2°W which put it about 45 miles (75 km) south-southwest of Ft. Myers, Florida. Potential Tropical Cyclone One was moving toward the northeast at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the coast of Florida from Bonita Beach on the west coast to the Volusia/Brevard County Line on the east coast and for all of the Florida Keys. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas and the Cuban provinces of Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the Cuban provinces of Matanzas and the Isle of Youth.

Thunderstorms on the eastern side of Potential Tropical Cyclone One dropped heavy rain on parts of South Florida during Friday night and Saturday morning. A rain gauge at Biscayne Park measured 10.98 inches (27.9 cm) of rain. Media reports showed urban and street flooding in some locations.

The circulation around Potential Tropical Cyclone One remained poorly organized on Saturday morning. There was a broad area of low pressure over South Florida and the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The center of low pressure was located south-southwest of Naples, Florida. There was another circulation center located west-southwest of the Florida Keys. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring over South Florida and over the Northwestern Bahamas. The western half of Potential Tropical Cyclone One contained mainly showers and lower clouds. The strongest winds were occurring in thunderstorms in the eastern half of the low pressure system.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification when it moves over the Atlantic Ocean east of Florida on Sunday. Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. An upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico and an upper level ridge over the Northwest Caribbean Sea and western Atlantic Ocean will interact to produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The vertical shear will somewhat inhibit intensification. However, the upper level ridge will also enhance the upper level divergence over Potential Tropical Cyclone One. More upper level divergence would cause the surface pressure to decrease. Potential Tropical Cyclone One could strengthen to a tropical storm when it moves over the warm water in the Gulf Stream on Sunday.

The upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico and the upper level ridge over the Northwest Caribbean Sea and western Atlantic Ocean will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone One toward the northeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move across South Florida on Saturday. Potential Tropical Cyclone One will bring continue to drop heavy rain on parts of South Florida and the Northwestern Bahamas during Saturday. More heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Produces Tropical Storm Force Winds

Potential Tropical Cyclone One produced tropical storm force winds over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Friday morning. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for South Florida, all of the Florida Keys, western Cuba and the Northwestern Bahamas. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone One was located at latitude 22.4°N and longitude 86.8°W which put it about 420 miles (675 km) southwest of Ft. Myers, Florida. Potential Tropical Cyclone One was moving toward the northeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the coast of Florida from Longboat Key on the west coast to the Volusia/Brevard County Line on the east coast and for all of the Florida Keys. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas and the Cuban provinces of Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the Cuban provinces of Matanzas and the Isle of Youth.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance flight found that Potential Tropical Cyclone One was producing winds to tropical storm force over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Friday morning. The distribution of thunderstorms around Potential Tropical Cyclone One was asymmetrical due to vertical wind shear caused by an upper level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in a band in the eastern half of Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Those thunderstorms generated upper level divergence that pumped mass to the east of the system. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the eastern half of Potential Tropical Cyclone One. The winds in the western half of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. The upper level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico and an upper level ridge over the Northwest Caribbean Sea will interact to produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The vertical shear will somewhat inhibit intensification. However, the upper level ridge will also enhance the upper level divergence over Potential Tropical Cyclone One. More upper level divergence would cause the surface pressure to decrease. Potential Tropical Cyclone One is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico and the upper level ridge over the Northwest Caribbean Sea will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone One toward the northeast during the next several days. On its anticipated track, Potential Tropical Cyclone One will approach Southwest Florida on Saturday morning. Potential Tropical Cyclone One will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to South Florida, the Florida Keys, western Cuba and the Northwestern Bahamas. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Watches Issued for South Florida and Western Cuba

The National Hurricane Center issued Tropical Storm Watches for South Florida and all of the Florida Keys on Thursday afternoon. The government of Cuba also issued Tropical Storm Watches for western Cuba. The National Hurricane Center designated former Invest 91L as Potential Tropical Cyclone One on Thursday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone One was located at latitude 21.4°N and longitude 87.5°W which put it about 75 miles (120 km) north-northwest of Cozumel, Mexico. Potential Tropical Cyclone One was moving toward the north at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the coast of Florida from Longboat Key on the west coast to the Volusia/Brevard County Line on the east coast. A Tropical Storm Watch was also issued for all of the Florida Keys. The government of Cuba issued Tropical Storm Watches for the provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth.

The National Hurricane Center designated former Invest 91L as Potential Tropical Cyclone One in keeping with its policy on the issuance of watches and warnings. The circulation around Potential Tropical Cyclone One consisted of a broad area of low pressure. One or more smaller centers of circulation were revolving around inside the broad area of low pressure. The National Hurricane Center identified a center near the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula as the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Images from satellites and radar indicated that a middle level center of circulation might be located near the western end of Cuba. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Those thunderstorms were generating upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the low pressure system. Bands in the western half of the circulation were over the Yucatan Peninsula and those bands consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. An upper level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico and an upper level ridge over the Northwest Caribbean Sea will interact to produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The vertical shear will somewhat inhibit intensification. However, the upper level ridge will also enhance the upper level divergence over Potential Tropical Cyclone One. More upper level divergence would cause the surface pressure to decrease. Potential Tropical Cyclone One is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm during the next 36 hours.

The upper level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico and the upper level ridge over the Northwest Caribbean Sea will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone One toward the northeast during the next several days. On its anticipated track, Potential Tropical Cyclone One will approach Southwest Florida on Saturday morning. Potential Tropical Cyclone One will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to western Cuba and South Florida later this week. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Disturbance Organizes over Northwest Caribbean Sea

A tropical disturbance, designated as Invest 91L, organized over the Northwest Caribbean Sea on Wednesday. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Invest 91L was located at latitude 18.7°N and longitude 87.4°W which put it about 75 miles (120 km) east of Chetumal, Mexico. Invest 91L was moving toward the northeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A center of circulation appeared to be spinning over the Northwest Caribbean Sea just to the east of the Yucatan Peninsula on visible satellite loops on Wednesday morning. The circulation center was designated as Invest 91L. The center was inside a larger tropical disturbance over the Northwest Caribbean Sea and Yucatan Peninsula. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of Invest 91L. Bands in the western half of the system were over the Yucatan Peninsula and those bands consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms in the eastern half of Invest 91L generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical disturbance.

Invest 91L will move through an environment that will be favorable for the formation of a tropical depression during the next 36 hours. Invest 91L will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. An upper level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico and an upper level ridge over the Northwest Caribbean Sea will interact to produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Invest 91L. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The vertical shear will somewhat inhibit the formation of a tropical depression. However, the upper level ridge will also enhance the upper level divergence over Invest 91L. More upper level divergence would cause the surface pressure to decrease. The National Hurricane Center is indicating the probability is 80% that a tropical depression forms from Invest 91L. A reconnaissance plane is tentatively scheduled to investigate the system on Thursday, if necessary.

The upper level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico and the upper level ridge over the Northwest Caribbean Sea will steer Invest 91L slowly toward the northeast during the next several days. On its anticipated track, Invest 91L will move toward western Cuba and South Florida. Invest 91L could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to western Cuba and South Florida later this week.