Category Archives: Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic TCs

Tropical Storm Earl Forms East of Northern Leeward Islands

Tropical Storm Earl formed east of the Northern Leeward Islands on Friday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Earl was located at latitude 18.4°N and longitude 60.3°W which put it about 185 miles (295 km) east of the Northern Leeward Islands. Earl was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

An area of low pressure east of the Northern Leeward Islands strengthened on Friday night and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Earl. The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Earl was asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of Earl’s circulation. Bands in the western half of Tropical Storm Earl consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The distribution of winds around Earl was also asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 170 miles (280 km) on the eastern side of Earl. The winds on the western side of Earl’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Earl will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Earl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce southerly winds that will bow toward the top of Earl’s circulation. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear and the wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Storm Earl could get a little stronger during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Earl will move around the southwestern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Earl toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Earl will pass north of the Northern Leeward Islands on Saturday.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Danielle remained stationary west of the Azores. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Danielle was located at latitude 37.9°N and longitude 43.5°W which put it about 895 miles (1445 km) west of the Azores. Danielle was stationary. The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Danielle Intensifies to a Hurricane West of the Azores

Former Tropical Storm Danielle intensified to a hurricane over the Atlantic Ocean west of the Azores on Friday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Danielle was located at latitude 37.9°N and longitude 43.3°W which put it about 885 miles (1425 km) west of the Azores. Danielle was moving toward the west at 1 m.p.h. (2 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Danielle intensified to a hurricane west of the Azores on Friday morning. Danielle became the first Atlantic hurricane in 2022. A circular eye was present at the center of Hurricane Danielle. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) in the northwestern quadrant of Danielle. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Danielle will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next 48 hours. Danielle is likely to meander slowly over the North Atlantic. On its anticipated track Hurricane Danielle will remain far to the west of the Azores during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane Danielle will be in an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Danielle will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are 27˚C. It will be in a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, since Hurricane Danielle will meander over the same part of the Atlantic Ocean during the weekend, its winds could mix cooler water to the surface of the ocean. Hurricane Danielle could intensify during the next 48 hours unless it mixes too much cooler water to the surface.

Tropical Depression Five Strengthens to Tropical Storm Danielle

Former Tropical Depression Five strengthened to Tropical Storm Danielle west of the Azores on Thursday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Danielle was located at latitude 38.1°N and longitude 44.7°W which put it about 960 miles (1545 km) west of the Azores. Danielle was moving toward the east at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1012 mb.

The circulation around former Tropical Depression Five organized quickly on Thursday morning and the National Hurricane Center upgraded it to Tropical Storm Danielle. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Danielle’s circulation and an eye was apparent on visible and microwave satellite images. The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Storm Danielle. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Danielle.

Tropical Storm Danielle will be in an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Danielle will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are 27˚C. It will be in a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Danielle will intensify during the next 48 hours. Danielle could intensify to a hurricane during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Danielle will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next 48 hours. Danielle is likely to meander slowly over the North Atlantic. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Danielle will remain far to the west of the Azores during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Depression Five Forms West of the Azores

Tropical Depression Five formed over the North Atlantic Ocean west of the Azores on Thursday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Five was located at latitude 38.1°N and longitude 45.0°W which put it about 975 miles (1575 km) west of the Azores. The tropical depression was moving toward the east-northeast at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1013 mb.

A low pressure system over the North Atlantic west of the Azores exhibited the characteristics of a tropical cyclone on Thursday morning and the National Hurricane Center classified the system as Tropical Depression Five. Tropical Depression Five developed from an extratropical cyclone that made a transition to a tropical cyclone. The fronts near the former extratropical cyclone weakened and more thunderstorms formed near the center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms developed and began to revolve around the center. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Five will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few days. The tropical depression will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are 27˚C. It will be in a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Depression Five will intensify during the next 48 hours. It is likely to strengthen to a tropical storm within 12 hours. Tropical Depression Five could intensify to a hurricane during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Depression Five will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next 48 hours. It is likely to meander slowly. On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Five will remain far to the west of the Azores during the next 48 hours.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Brings Rain to Northeast Mexico

A tropical wave designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Four brought rain to northeastern Mexico on Saturday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Four was located at latitude 25.3°N and longitude 97.9°W which put it about 60 miles (95 km) southwest of the Mouth of the Rio Grande River. Potential Tropical Cyclone Four was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

A tropical wave designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Four moved inland over northeastern Mexico during Saturday night. A center of circulation never formed in the lower levels of the of the tropical wave and so it never developed into a tropical depression or a tropical storm. The tropical wave will move northwest over the Lower Rio Grande Valley on Sunday. Thunderstorms in the tropical wave could drop locally heavy rain over northeastern Mexico and South Texas. Some places could receive 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm) of rain. The heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Prompts Tropical Storm Warnings for Texas and Mexico

A weather system over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico was designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Four on Friday afternoon and Tropical Storm Warnings were issued for portions of the coasts of Texas and Mexico. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Four was located at latitude 20.7°N and longitude 94.5°W which put it about 400 miles (640 km) south-southeast of the Mouth of the Rio Grande River. Potential Tropical Cyclone Four was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

A Tropical Cyclone Warning was issued for the portion of the coast from Port Mansfield, Texas to Boca de Catan, Mexico.

A weather system over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico exhibited more organization on Friday. However, observations from a U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane on Friday afternoon indicated that there was not a well defined center of low level circulation in the weather system. The National Hurricane Center designated the system as Potential Tropical Cyclone Four in order to issue a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of South Texas. The government of Mexico also issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the northern coast of Mexico.

More thunderstorms developed in Potential Tropical Cyclone Four on Friday afternoon. Some of the thunderstorms in the eastern half of the circulation appeared to be organizing into bands. The thunderstorms in Potential Tropical Cyclone Four began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the weather system.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Potential Tropical Cyclone Four will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are 30˚C. It will move under an upper level ridge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The upper level winds are weak in that region and there will be little vertical wind shear. Potential Tropical Cyclone Four is likely to intensify during the next 18 hours. A well defined low level center of circulation will have to develop in order for the system to become a tropical storm.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four will move around the southwestern part of a subtropical high pressure system that extends over the Gulf of Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone Four toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Potential Tropical Cyclone Four will make landfall south of Brownsville, Texas during Saturday night. It will bring locally heavy rain and gusty winds to South Texas and northern Mexico. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Invest 98L Brings Rain to South Texas

A low pressure system designated as Invest 98L brought rain to South Texas on Sunday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Invest 98L was located at latitude 27.5°N and longitude 97.5°W which put it about 20 miles (30 km) south of Corpus Christi, Texas. Invest 98L was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

A low pressure system designated as Invest 98L brought rain to South Texas on Sunday morning when the center of the low moved inland just south of Corpus Christi. The low pressure system exhibited much more organization as it approached the coast. A distinct low level center of circulation was evident on both visible satellite and radar images. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of the low pressure system. The strongest winds were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Invest 98L, which were still over the Gulf of Mexico.

Invest 98L will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the southern U.S. The high pressure system will steer Invest 98L toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track Invest 98L will move inland over the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Invest 98L will drop widespread rain over South Texas. Many places could receive 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm). Heavier rain could fall over some locations and localized flooding is possible. The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Brownsville, Texas issued a Flood Advisory for Jim Wells, Kleeburg and Nueces counties.

Tropical Wave West of Africa Watched for Development

A tropical wave over the Atlantic Ocean west of Africa was being watched for development on Monday afternoon. The tropical wave was designated as Invest 97L on Monday. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of the tropical wave was located at latitude 11.7°N and longitude 22.7°W which put it about 230 miles (350 km) south of the Cabo Verde Islands. The tropical wave was moving toward the west at 19 m.p.h. (30 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

A tropical wave that moved over the Atlantic Ocean west of Africa during the weekend was being monitored for possible development of a tropical depression on Monday afternoon. The tropical wave exhibited a typical structure. There was no center of circulation evident in the lower levels of the atmosphere. There were linear bands of showers and thunderstorms that were moving with the tropical wave. Thunderstorms near the axis of the wave were generating upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical wave.

The tropical wave will move through an environment favorable for the development of a tropical depression during the next several days. The tropical wave will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge that extends from the west coast of Africa to the Caribbean Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge. The tropical wave will move along the southern side of a subtropical pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The subtropical high is producing strong easterly winds in the lower level of the atmosphere. The strong low level winds may cause vertical wind shear in the lower levels of the atmosphere, which could inhibit the formation of a tropical depression. The National Hurricane Center is indicating that there is a probability of 40% of the formation of a tropical depression during the next five days.

The subtropical high pressure system will steer the tropical wave quickly toward the west-northwest during the next few days. On its anticipated track the tropical wave could approach the northern Leeward Islands in a few days. It could be a tropical depression or tropical storm by that time.

Tropical Storm Colin Forms on South Carolina Coast

Tropical Storm Colin formed on the coast of South Carolina on Saturday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Colin was located at latitude 33.6°N and longitude 79.3°W which put it about 25 miles (40 km) west-southwest of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. Colin was moving toward the northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1012 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from South Santee River, South Carolina to Duck, North Carolina.

A small low pressure system dropped heavy rain over the area around Charleston, South Carolina on Friday. An area of winds to tropical storm force was detected off the coast of South Carolina on Saturday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Colin. The strongest winds were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Colin, which was over the Atlantic Ocean. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the eastern side of Colin’s circulation. The winds over land were weaker. The heaviest rain was also falling in the bands over the Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical Storm Colin will move through an environment that is unfavorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Although the Sea Surface Temperatures off the coast of North Carolina are near 27˚C, the center of Colin’s circulation is likely to move along the coast. An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will produce southwesterly winds that will cause moderate vertical wind shear. Proximity to land and vertical wind shear are likely to prevent Tropical Storm Colin from strengthening during the next 36 hours.

The upper level trough will steer Tropical Storm Colin toward the northeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Colin will move along the coast of North Carolina. Colin could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of North Carolina.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Bonnie was moving along the border between Nicaragua and Costa Rica. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was located at latitude 11.2°N and longitude 85.8°W which put it about 65 miles (105 km) southeast of Managua, Nicaragua. Bonnie was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb. Tropical Storm Bonnie will move over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean in a few hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the Caribbean coast from Limon, Costa Rica to Sandy Bay Sirpi, Nicaragua. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the Pacific coast from Cabo Blanco, Costa Rica to the border between Nicaragua and Honduras.

Tropical Storm Bonnie Hits Nicaragua and Costa Rica

Tropical Storm Bonnie hit southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica on Friday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was located at latitude 10.9°N and longitude 83.8°W which put it about 75 miles (120 km) south of Bluefields, Nicaragua. Bonnie was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the Caribbean coast from Limon, Costa Rica to Sandy Bay Sirpi, Nicaragua. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the Pacific coast from Cabo Blanco, Costa Rica to the border between Nicaragua and Honduras.

The center of Tropical Storm Bonnie made landfall on the Caribbean coast near the border between Nicaragua and Costa Rica on Friday night. Bonnie was beginning to strengthen rapidly just prior to landfall. A reconnaissance plane reported an eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) had developed at the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) on the northern side of Bonnie’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 20 miles (30 km) on the southern side of Tropical Storm Bonnie.

Tropical Storm Bonnie will move south of the western part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea. The high pressure system will steer Bonnie toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Bonnie will move along the border between Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Bonnie will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica. Heavy rain could cause flash floods and mudslides in some locations. Bonnie will move over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Saturday.

Tropical Storm Bonnie will weaken while it moves over land. Mountains are likely to disrupt the low level circulation and to cause the developing eye and eyewall to dissipate. Bonnie will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C when it moves over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. Bonnie is forecast to strengthen back to a tropical storm when it moves over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean and it could intensify to a hurricane in a couple of days.