Category Archives: Western North Pacific

Western Pacific Typhoons and Tropical Storms

Typhoon Vongfong Nears Landfall in Samar

Typhoon Vongfong neared landfall in Samar on Wednesday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Vongfong was located near latitude 12.2°N and longitude 125.8°E which put it about 30 miles (50 km) east of Dolores, Philippines.  Vongfong was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and  there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Typhoon Vongfong was a small but strong tropical cyclone.  There was a small circular eye at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms.  The strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.

Winds to typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Typhoon Vongfong.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Vongfong was 19.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 5.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 24.8.  Typhoon Vongfong was capable of causing localized serious damage.

Typhoon Vongfong will move around the western end of a high pressure system centered southeast of Japan.  The high will steer Vongfong toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Vongfong will make landfall on the coast of northern Samar north of Dolores during the next 6 to 12 hours.  The center of Vongfong could be near Laoang in about 12 hours.  Typhoon Vongfong could move over southeastern Luzon later on Thursday.  The center of Vongfong could be near Legaspi in 18 hours.

The small inner core of Typhoon Vongfong will be capable of causing localized serious wind damage in northern Samar and southeastern Luzon.  Vongfong could bring strong winds to Dolores, Laoang, Catarman, Bulan, Sorsogon and Legaspi.  Typhoon Vongfong will drop locally heavy rain over northern Samar, southeastern Luzon and Catanduanes Island.  Flash floods could occur in some locations.  Vongfong could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) in parts of northern Samar and southeastern Luzon.

Vongfong Rapidly Intensifies Into a Typhoon East of Samar

Former Tropical Storm Vongfong rapidly intensified into a typhoon east of Samar on Wednesday.  At 11:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Vongfong was located at latitude 12.3°N and longitude 127.6°E which put it about 140 miles (225 km) east of Dolores, Philippines.  Vongfong was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 966 mb.

Typhoon Vongfong rapidly intensified on Wednesday from a strong tropical storm into a typhoon.  A small circular eye formed at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Vongfong.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon in all directions.  The removal of mass was allowing the surface pressure to decrease quickly, which caused the rapid intensification.

The circulation around Typhoon Vongfong was small.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Vongfong was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 6.4 and the Hurricane Wind intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 24.2.  Typhoon Vongfong was capable of causing localized serious damage.

Typhoon Vongfong will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Vongfong will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29.5°C.  It will move under a small upper level ridge east of the Philippines.  The upper level winds in the ridge are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Vongfong will continue to intensify rapidly in the short term.  Vongfong is likely to strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 6 to 12 hours.

Typhoon Vongfong will move around the western end of a high pressure system centered southeast of Japan.  The high will steer Vongfong toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  Typhoon Vongfong will start to move more toward the north-northwest in a day or so, when it nears the western end of the high pressure system.  On its anticipated track the core of Typhoon Vongfong could approach northern Samar in about 18 hours.  Vongfong could approach Catanduanes Island and southeastern Luzon in about 24 hours.  Outer bands on the western side of Typhoon Vongfong could start to drop heavy rain over parts of Samar during the next 12 to 18 hours.

Tropical Storm Vongfong Develops East of the Philippines

Tropical Storm Vongfong developed east of the Philippines on Tuesday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Vongfong was located at latitude 11.6°N and longitude 128.7°E which put it about 165 miles (270 km) east of Samar, Philippines.  Vongfong was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Former Tropical Depression 01W strengthened on Tuesday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the low pressure system as Tropical Storm Vongfong.  The circulation around Vongfong was still organizing.  More thunderstorms were developing near the center of circulation.  Other thunderstorms were occurring in a primary rainband in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Vongfong.  Bands in the northern and western parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center.

Tropical Storm Vongfong will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours.  Vongfong will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move under a small upper level ridge centered east of the Philippines.  The winds in upper ridge are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Vongfong will continue to intensify and it could strengthen to a typhoon within 24 to 36 hours.  A period of rapid intensification could occur after the inner part of the circulation becomes more organized.

Tropical Storm Vongfong will move around the western end of a high pressure system centered south of Japan.  The high pressure system is forecast to strengthen during the next 36 hours and it will steer Vongfong more toward the west-northwest on Wednesday.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Vongfong could approach northern Samar and southeastern Luzon in 36 to 48 hours.  Vongfong could be a typhoon at that time.  It could also drop locally heavy rain and cause flash floods over northeastern parts of the Philippines.

Tropical Depression Forms East of Philippines

A tropical depression formed east of the Philippines on Monday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of the tropical depression was located at latitude 8.6°N and longitude 129.0°E which put it about 165 miles (270 km) east of Mindanao.  It was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system east of the Philippines exhibited greater organization on Monday and the Japan Meteorological Agency classified the system as a tropical depression.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of the depression.  The strongest thunderstorms were east of the center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were occurring in the eastern and southern parts of the circulation.  Bands in the northern and western sides of the depression consisted mostly of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical depression.

The tropical depression will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move under a small upper level ridge that is between an upper trough west of the Philippines and another upper trough northeast of the Philippines.  The upper level winds are weaker in the small ridge and there will be less vertical wind shear.  The tropical depression is likely to intensify into a tropical storm during the next 24 hours and it could strengthen into a typhoon later this week.

The tropical depression will move around the western end of a high pressure system centered south of Japan.  The high will steer the depression slowly toward the northwest during the next few days.  On its anticipated track the depression could approach the northern Philippines later this week.  It could be a typhoon by the time it approaches the northern Philippines.

Possible Tropical Development East of Philippines

A tropical cyclone could develop east of the Philippines during the next day or two.  A low pressure system east of Mindanao is currently designated as Invest 95W.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Invest 95W was located at latitude 7.2°N and longitude 131.5°E which put it about 335 miles (540 km) east of Mindanao.  It was moving toward the west-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

The area of low pressure currently designated at Invest 95W exhibited great organization on Saturday night.  Microwave satellite imagery revealed a distinct low level circulation.  Many thunderstorms were developing in a band on the southern and eastern side of the circulation.  Bands in the northern and western parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  More thunderstorms began to form near the center of circulation on Saturday night.

Invest 95W will move through an environment favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone during the next several days.  The low pressure system will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move in a region south of an upper level trough northeast of the Philippines, and west of an upper level ridge centered south of Guam.  The trough and ridge will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will probably not be strong enough to prevent the formation of a tropical cyclone.  Invest 95W could develop into a tropical depression during the next 24 hours.

Invest 95W will move around the southwestern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer the low pressure system toward the northwest.  On its anticipated track Invest 95W will move slowly toward the northern Philippines.

Typhoon Phanfone Moves Away from the Philippines

Typhoon Phanfone moved away from the Philippines on Wednesday after bringing wind and rain to the central Philippines.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Phanfone was located at latitude 13.2°N and longitude 118.3°E which put it about 190 miles (310 km) west-southwest of Manila, Philippines.  Phanfone was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

Typhoon Phanfone weakened earlier on Wednesday.  The core of Phanfone moved over southern Mindoro and the typhoon weakened when the circulation was disrupted by the mountains.  Satellite imagery suggested that the circulation around Typhoon Phanfone might be reorganizing on Wednesday night.  A small circular eye reappeared on visible satellite images.  Thunderstorms in the eyewall were growing taller.  Storms around the core of Phanfone were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) north of the center of circulation and out 20 miles (30 km) south of the center.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Phanfone.

Typhoon Phanfone will move through an environment capable of supporting a typhoon for another 24 hours.  Phanfone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  In about 24 hours Typhoon Phanfone will reach an area where winds near the surface are blowing from the northeast.  Those winds will bring drier air which will get pulled into the circulation around Phanfone.  Typhoon Phanfone will weaken when the drier air enters its circulation.

Typhoon Phanfone will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Phanfone toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Phanfone will move across the South China Sea and it will move farther away from the Philippines.

Typhoon Phanfone Hits Panay Island

Typhoon Phanfone hit Panay Island on Tuesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Phanfone was located at latitude 11.9°N and longitude 121.8°E which put it about 50 miles (80 km) southeast of San Jose, Philippines.  Phanfone was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 963 mb.

The eye of Typhoon Phanfone passed over the northern coast of Panay Island on Tuesday.  The southern part of the eyewall affected Roxas City, Kalibo and Ibajay.  Strong winds and heavy rain moved over the northern coast of Panay.  The northern eyewall was over Tablas Island and the northwestern part of the eyewall reached southeastern Mindoro.  Gusty winds may reach Roxas and San Jose on Mindoro.  Heavy rain was falling over over Tablas Island and southeastern Mindoro.

Typhoon Phanfone strengthened slightly even though parts of the eyewall moved over some of the islands in the central Philippines.  The core of Phanfone remained intact and there was a small circular eye at the center of the typhoon.  The strongest winds were occurring in a ring of thunderstorms around the eye.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km).  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Phanfone was 19.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 27.5.

Typhoon Phanfone will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Phanfone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Phanfone could intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane if the core of the circulation passes south of Mindoro.

Typhoon Phanfone will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Island.  The high will steer Phanfone toward the west-northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Phanfone will pass near the southern end of Mindoro during the next few hours.  The center will pass near Busuanga Island and Culion Island before Phanfone moves over the South China Sea.  Typhoon Phanfone will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Roxas, San Jose and Coron.  Heavy rain on Tablas Island, southern Mindoro, Busuanga Island and Culion Island could cause flash floods.  Floods are most likely on southern Mindoro because of the steep slopes near mountains.  Conditions will improve over Panay Island as Phanfone moves farther away.

Strengthening Typhoon Phanfone Makes Landfall in Central Philippines

A strengthening Typhoon Phanfone made landfall in the central Philippines on Tuesday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Phanfone was located at latitude 11.6°N and longitude 124.1°E which put it about 30 miles (50 km) southeast of Placer, Philippines.  Phanfone was moving toward the west-northwest at 19 m.p.h. (31 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 966 mb.

Typhoon Phanfone strengthened quickly as it made landfall in the central Philippines.  A small circular eye became more distinct on  satellite imagery.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center.  The Hurricane intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Phanfone was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.8 and the Hurricane Wind intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 28.6.

The center of Typhoon Phanfone made landfall near Guiuan on Samar.  The center of Phanfone passed near Tacloban on Leyte before it moved over the Visayan Sea.  Typhoon Phanfone brought strong winds and heavy rain to Samar and Leyte.  The winds were strong enough to cause serious damage and regional power outages.  The heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Typhoon Phanfone moved through a favorable environment that allowed to strengthen.  Phanfone moved over water where the Sea Surface Temperature was near 29°C.  It moved through a region where the upper level winds were weak and there was little vertical wind shear.  The core of Phanfone moved quickly over narrow portions of Samar and Leyte and the core remained intact.  Typhoon Phanfone could strengthen while the enter moves across the Visayan Sea and it could intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Typhoon Phanfone will move south of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean during the next several days.  The ridge will steer Phanfone toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Phanfone will pass near Masbate and the northern end of Panay Island.  Phanfone could be near Mindoro in about 12 hours.  Typhoon Phanfone will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Masbate, the northern end of Panay Island, the northern end of Negros and Mindoro.  Conditions will improve gradually when Phanfone moves away from Samar and Leyte.

Phanfone Strengthens to a Typhoon, Closing in on Central Philippines

Former Tropical Storm Phanfone strengthened to a typhoon as it closed in on the central Philippines on Monday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Typhoon Phanfone was located at latitude 10.9°N and longitude 126.9°E which put it about 80 miles (130 km) east of Guiuan, Philippines.  Phanfone was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Typhoon Phanfone strengthened on Monday.  The circulation became more symmetrical and an eye began to form at the center of Phanfone.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Phanfone.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon.  The circulation around Typhoon Phanfone was relatively small.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center.

Typhoon Phanfone will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours.  Phanfone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and the will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Phanfone will continue to intensify until it makes landfall in the central Philippines.  Phanfone will begin to weaken when the center moves over land.  It could regain some strength while the center passes over the Visayan Sea.

Typhoon Phanfone will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Phanfone toward the west-northwest during the next several days.  On it anticipated track the center of Typhoon Phanfone will pass over southern Samar near Guiuan in a few hours.  The core of Phanfone will also pass near Tacloban and northern Leyte.  Typhoon Phanfone will move over the Visayan Sea before moving near Roxas City and northern Panay Island.

Typhoon Phanfone will bring strong winds to southern Samar, Leyte and northern Panay Island.  Phanfone will drop locally heavy rain and flash floods could occur in some locations.  Typhoon Phanfone could produce a storm surge of six feet (two meters) along portions of the coast where the wind blows the water toward the shore.

Tropical Storm Phanfone Churns Toward the Philippines

Tropical Storm Phanfone churned toward the Philippines on Sunday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Phanfone was located at latitude 9.7°N and longitude 133.5°E which put it about 525 miles (850 km) east-southeast of Guiuan, Philippines.  Phafone was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Storm Phanfone exhibited greater organization on Sunday night.  More thunderstorms developed around the center of circulation.  Many of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands northwest of the center.  Bands in other parts of the circulation had fewer storms and consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Thunderstorms near the center were generating upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the west of the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the northern half of Phanfone and out 40 miles (65 km) on the southern side of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Phanfone will move through an environment favorable for intensification.  Phanfone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29.5°C.  It will move south of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce southeasterly winds which will cause some vertical wind shear.  The wind shear diminished during recent hours.  The shear will slow the rate of intensification, but it will not be strong enough to keep Phanfone from intensifying.  Tropical Storm Phanfone will continue to intensify and it could strengthen into a typhoon within 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Phanfone will move south of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Phanfone toward the west-northwest during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Phanfone could reach the central Philippines within 36 hours.  Phanfone could be a typhoon by the time it approaches Samar.