Monthly Archives: January 2019

Tropical Cyclone Mona Forms North of Fiji

Tropical Cyclone Mona formed north of Fiji on Wednesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mona was located at latitude 11.6°S and longitude 178.1°E which put it about 460 miles (745 km) north of Suva, Fiji.  Mona was moving toward the south-southeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A distinct low level center of circulation formed within an area of thunderstorms north of Fiji and the Fiji Meteorological Service designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Mona.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Mona was still organizing.  There was a small cluster of thunderstorms around the center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were forming and those bands were revolving around the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Mona will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next two days.  Mona will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move around the western end of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce northerly winds which will cause some vertical wind shear.  The shear will inhibit strengthening, but it will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Mona will intensify during the next 36 to 48 hours and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

The upper level ridge will steer Tropical Cyclone Mona toward the south-southeast during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Mona could approach Fiji in 36 to 48 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Mona could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it nears Fiji.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Penny was reorganizing over the Coral Sea east of Queensland.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Penny was located at latitude 14.2°S and longitude 152.2°E which put it about 470 miles (760 km) east-northeast of Cairns, Australia.  Penny was moving toward the east-southeast at 24 m.p.h. (39 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

Tropical Storm Pabuk Forms Over South China Sea

Tropical Storm Pabuk formed over the South China Sea near Pulau Laut on Tuesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Pabuk was located at latitude 5.9°N and longitude 108.2°E which put it about 675 miles (1090 km) east-southeast of Chumphon, Thailand.  Pabuk was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

More thunderstorms developed near the western side of the center of Tropical Depression 36W and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Pabuk.  The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Storm Pabuk was asymmetrical.  Many of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring west of the center of circulation.  Pabuk was near the western end of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge was producing southeasterly winds which were blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and they were inhibiting upper level divergence to the west of Tropical Storm Pabuk.  The wind shear was also probably causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were located on the northern periphery of Pabuk.

Tropical Storm Pabuk will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification.  Pabuk will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  The upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific will continue to cause vertical wind shear, but the strength of the upper level winds could weaken slightly.  Wind shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Storm Pabuk is likely to strengthen during the next 24 to 48 hours.

The ridge over the Western North Pacific will steer Tropical Storm Pabuk toward the west-northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Pabuk could approach southern Thailand in 48 to 60 hours.