Monthly Archives: August 2022

Tropical Storm Meari Forms South of Japan

Tropical Storm Meari formed over the Western North Pacific Ocean south of Japan on Thursday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Meari was located at latitude 29.2°N and longitude 136.0°E which put it about 500 miles (805 km) south-southwest of Tokyo, Japan. Meari was moving toward the north at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

The circulation around an area of low pressure over the Western North Pacific Ocean south of Japan strengthened on Thursday afternoon and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Meari. The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Storm Meari was asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of Meari’s circulation. Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Tropical Storm Meari was under the southern part of a narrow upper level ridge south of Japan that extended from east to west. The upper level ridge was producing northerly winds that were blowing toward the top of Meari. The winds were causing vertical wind shear and they were the reason for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the southeastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Meari. The wind in the other parts of Meari’s circulation was blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Meari will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Meari will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. The narrow upper level ridge south of Japan will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear during the next 12 hours. The wind shear will inhibit intensification during the next few hours. Tropical Storm Meari will move under the axis of the upper level ridge on Friday. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and the vertical wind shear will decrease on Friday. Tropical Storm Meari will be in an environment favorable for intensification while it is under the axis of the ridge.

Tropical Storm Meari will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Meari toward the north during the next 18 hours. Meari will move toward the northeast later on Friday after it moves around the western end of the high pressure system. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Meari will approach the coast of Honshu near Tokyo in 36 hours. Meari could be a strong tropical storm when it nears Tokyo. Tropical Storm Meari will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the region around Tokyo on Saturday.

Tropical Storm Mulan Brings Rain to Southern China

Tropical Storm Mulan brought rain to southern China on Wednesday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Mulan was located at latitude 20.9°N and longitude 108.9°E which put it about 40 miles (60 km) southwest of Beihai, China. Mulan was moving toward the west-northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Rainbands on the northern side of Tropical Storm Mulan brought rain to parts of southern China on Wednesday. Rain fell over coastal parts of southern China from Hong Kong to the border with Vietnam. Tropical Storm Mulan also dropped locally heavy rain on Hainan Island. Rainbands in the northwestern part of Mulan’s circulation brought rain to northeastern Vietnam.

Tropical Storm Mulan will move across the Gulf of Tonkin during the next 12 hours toward northern Vietnam. Mulan will move south of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean and eastern China. The high pressure system will steer Mulan toward the west-northwest during the next day or so. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Mulan will make landfall on the coast of northeastern Vietnam in about 12 hours.

Tropical Storm Mulan will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Mulan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge centered over eastern Asia. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Mulan’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear and the shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Storm Mulan is likely to maintain its current intensity during the next 12 hours, but it could strengthen a little prior to landfall in northeastern Vietnam.

Howard Weakens Back to a Tropical Storm

Former Hurricane Howard weakened back to a tropical storm over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Baja California on Tuesday evening. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Howard was located at latitude 23.1°N and longitude 118.4°W which put it about 540 miles (870 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California. Howard was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Former Hurricane Howard moved over cooler water west of Baja California on Tuesday evening and weakened back to a tropical storm. Tropical Storm Howard was moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 24˚C. Howard was unable to extract as much energy from the cooler water and thunderstorms around the tropical storm diminished. The strongest remaining thunderstorms were in the remnants of the northern eyewall. The rest of the former eyewall and the rainbands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Howard consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Howard.

Tropical Storm Howard will move through an environment unfavorable for a tropical cyclone during the next several days. Howard will continue to move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 24˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little the wind shear. The cooler water will cause Tropical Storm Howard to continue to weaken even though there will be little vertical wind shear.

Hurricane Howard will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over northern Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Howard toward the west-northwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Howard will move farther way from Baja California.

Tropical Storm Mulan Forms South of Hong Kong

Tropical Storm Mulan formed over the South China Sea south of Hing Kong on Tuesday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Mulan was located at latitude 17.9°N and longitude 112.8°E which put it about 280 miles (450 km) south of Hong Kong. Mulan was moving toward the north at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A small low pressure system on the eastern side of a much larger low pressure system over the South China Sea south of Hong Kong strengthened on Tuesday morning and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Mulan. The circulation around Tropical Storm Mulan was embedded in a larger low pressure system over the South China Sea which had a diameter of 700 miles (1130 km). The distribution of thunderstorms around Mulan was asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring mainly in bands in the eastern half of Mulan’s circulation. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Mulan’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Mulan will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Mulan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the eastern side of a broad upper level low over the South China Sea. The upper low will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Mulan’s circulation. The winds at lower levels in the atmosphere will also blow from the south. So, there will be little vertical wind shear. Even though the water will be warm and there will be little vertical wind shear, the fact that Tropical Storm Mulan is a smaller low pressure system embedded in a much larger low pressure system is likely to inhibit intensification.

Tropical Storm Mulan will move around the northeastern part of the larger low pressure system over the South China Sea during the next 24 hours. The larger low pressure system will steer Mulan toward the northwest. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Mulan could approach the south coast of China near Zhanjiang within 24 hours. Mulan will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern China. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Howard Rapidly Intensifies to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Howard rapidly intensified to a hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Monday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Howard was located at latitude 20.6°N and longitude 114.4°W which put it about 330 miles (530 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Howard was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

The inner end of a rainband wrapped completely around the center of Hurricane Howard on Monday afternoon and a circular eye was at the center of circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Howard. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The circulation around Hurricane Howard was small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Howard. Winds to tropical storm force extend out 60 miles (95 km) from the center.

Hurricane Howard will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Howard will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little the wind shear. Hurricane Howard could continue to intensify rapidly during the next 12 hours. Howard will move over cooler water on Tuesday, which will cause it to start to weaken.

Hurricane Howard will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over northern Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Howard toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Hurricane Howard will move parallel to the coast of southern Baja California. The center of Howard will remain about 300 miles (480 km) southwest of southern Baja California.

Tropical Wave West of Africa Watched for Development

A tropical wave over the Atlantic Ocean west of Africa was being watched for development on Monday afternoon. The tropical wave was designated as Invest 97L on Monday. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of the tropical wave was located at latitude 11.7°N and longitude 22.7°W which put it about 230 miles (350 km) south of the Cabo Verde Islands. The tropical wave was moving toward the west at 19 m.p.h. (30 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

A tropical wave that moved over the Atlantic Ocean west of Africa during the weekend was being monitored for possible development of a tropical depression on Monday afternoon. The tropical wave exhibited a typical structure. There was no center of circulation evident in the lower levels of the atmosphere. There were linear bands of showers and thunderstorms that were moving with the tropical wave. Thunderstorms near the axis of the wave were generating upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical wave.

The tropical wave will move through an environment favorable for the development of a tropical depression during the next several days. The tropical wave will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge that extends from the west coast of Africa to the Caribbean Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge. The tropical wave will move along the southern side of a subtropical pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The subtropical high is producing strong easterly winds in the lower level of the atmosphere. The strong low level winds may cause vertical wind shear in the lower levels of the atmosphere, which could inhibit the formation of a tropical depression. The National Hurricane Center is indicating that there is a probability of 40% of the formation of a tropical depression during the next five days.

The subtropical high pressure system will steer the tropical wave quickly toward the west-northwest during the next few days. On its anticipated track the tropical wave could approach the northern Leeward Islands in a few days. It could be a tropical depression or tropical storm by that time.

Tropical Storm Howard Strengthens Southwest of Baja California

Tropical Storm Howard strengthened over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Monday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Howard was located at latitude 20.1°N and longitude 113.4°W which put it about 295 miles (475 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Howard was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Tropical Storm Howard exhibited much more organization on Monday morning. The inner end of a rainband wrapped most of the way around the center of Howard. An eye appeared to be forming at the center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Howard. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The strongest winds were occurring in the inner end of the rainband that wrapped around the developing eye. Winds to tropical storm force extend out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Howard.

Tropical Storm Howard will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Howard will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little the wind shear. Tropical Storm Howard will continue to intensify during the next 24 hours and it is likely to strengthen to a hurricane. Howard could intensify more rapidly after the eye and eyewall are fully formed.

Tropical Storm Howard will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over northern Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Howard toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Howard will move parallel to the coast of southern Baja California. The center of Howard will remain about 300 miles (480 km) southwest of southern Baja California.

Tropical Storm Howard Forms South of Baja California

Tropical Storm Howard formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Sunday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Howard was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 110.7°W which put it about 370 miles (595 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California. Howard was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

The circulation around former Tropical Depression Nine-E strengthened on Sunday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Howard. The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Howard was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern side of Howard’s circulation. Bands in the southern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. A small upper level low located southwest of Howard was causing southerly winds that were blowing toward the top of the tropical storm. Those winds were causing vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear was allowing drier air to flow into the southern half of Tropical Storm Howard. The vertical wind shear and the drier air were causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. Storms near the center of Howard’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north and east of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles in the northern side of Tropical Storm Howard. The winds in the southern half of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Howard will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Howard will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. The small upper level low southwest of Howard’s circulation is forecast to weaken. If the upper level low weakens, then the wind shear will decrease. If the wind shear decreases, then less drier air will flow into the southern part of the circulation. Tropical Storm Howard is forecast to strengthen during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Howard will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over northern Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Howard toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Howard is forecast to move parallel to the coast of southern Baja California. The center of Howard will remain 300 miles (480 km) west of southern Baja California during the next 24 hours.

Frank Weakens to a Tropical Storm West of Baja California

Former Hurricane Frank weakened to a tropical storm over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Baja California on Monday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Frank was located at latitude 21.7°N and longitude 121.5°W which put it about 745 miles (1200 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California. Frank was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Former Hurricane Frank weakened to a tropical storm on Monday morning as it moved over cooler water in the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Baja California. Tropical Storm Frank was moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 22˚C. Frank was unable to extract enough energy from the cooler water to maintain its intensity and the circulation weakened. The air over the cooler water was more stable and clouds were unable to rise as high into the atmosphere. The bands of thunderstorms weakened. Some drier, more stable air wrapped around the southern side of Frank’s circulation and the bands in that part of the tropical storm consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Tropical Storm Frank was still producing a large area of tropical storm force winds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Frank.

Tropical Storm Frank will move through an environment unfavorable for a tropical cyclone during the next few days. Frank will move over water that is even colder than the water it is currently over. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Frank will weaken gradually during the next few days.

Tropical Storm Frank will move around the western part of a high pressure system over northern Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Frank toward the northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Frank will remain far to the west of Baja California.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression Georgette stalled west-southwest of Tropical Storm Frank. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Georgette was located at latitude 12.8°N and longitude 130.2°W which put it about 1505 miles (2420 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Georgette was moving toward the west at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.