The risk posed by Typhoon Bavi caused Typhoon Warnings to be issued for the Marianas. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Bavi was located at latitude 12.6°N and longitude 150.5°E which put the center about 405 miles (650 km) east of Guam. Bavi was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 200 m.p.h. (325 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 913 mb.
Typhoon Warnings are in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan.
Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for Alamagan, Pagan, and Agrihan.
A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) was at the center of Typhoon Bavi. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Bavi’s circulation. Storms near the core of Bavi generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from typhoon. The removal of large quantities of mass caused the surface pressure to continue to decrease.
The circulation around Typhoon Bavi was fairly symmetrical. Winds to typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Bavi’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of Typhoon Bavi.
The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Bavi is 36.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 19.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 56.0. Typhoon Bavi is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Maria when Maria hit Puerto Rico in 2017.
Typhoon Bavi will more through an environment that will be favorable for a powerful typhoon during the next 24 hours. Bavi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Bavi could intensify a little more during the next 24 hours unless an eyewall replacement cycle occurs. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall and concentric eyewalls form, then an eyewall replacement cycle would cause Bavi to weaken temporarily.
Typhoon Bavi will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Bavi toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Typhoon Bavi will reach the Marianas in 36 hours.
Typhoon Bavi will bring very strong winds and heavy rain to the Marianas. Bavi could be capable of causing catastrophic damage. Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations.
Flood Watches are in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan.
Typhoon Bavi could also cause a storm surge of up to 16 feet (5 meters) along the coast of the Marianas.
Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Maysak was moving toward northeast Vietnam. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Maysak was located at latitude 20.9°N and longitude 107.7°E which put the center about 50 miles (80 km) east of Haiphong, Vietnam. Maysak was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.