Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Arabian Sea on Tuesday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy was located at latitude 12.4°N and longitude 66.3°E which put it about 745 miles (1200 km) southeast of Masirah Island. Biparjoy was moving toward the northeast at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy rapidly intensified over the Arabian Sea on Tuesday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern side of the center of Biparjoy’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Biprarjoy. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (175 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Biparjoy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Arabian Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will intensify during the next 36 hours. Biparjoy could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will move around the northwestern side of a high pressure system over the Indian Ocean during the next 36 hours. The high pressure system will steer Biparjoy slowly toward the north. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will remain over the Arabian Sea during the next few days.

Tropical Storm Guchol Forms West of Marianas

Tropical Storm Guchol formed over the Western North Pacific Ocean west of the Marianas on Tuesday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Guchol was located at latitude 114.6°N and longitude 134.6°E which put it about 785 miles (1265 km) south-southeast of Minamidiatojima, Japan. Guchol was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A low pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean west of the Marianas strengthened on Tuesday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Guchol. The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Guchol was asymmetrical. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring bands in the southern half of Guchol’s circulation. Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Guchol.

Tropical Storm Guchol will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Guchol will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Guchol will intensify during the next 36 hours. Guchol could strengthen to a typhoon within 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Guchol will move around the western part of high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Guchol toward the northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Guchol will move farther away from the Marianas. Guchol could be south of Minamidaitojima in five days.

Tropical Cyclone Forms over Arabian Sea

A tropical cyclone formed over the Arabian Sea on Tuesday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 02A was located at latitude 12.0°N and longitude 66.0°E which put it about 755 miles (1220 km) southeast of Masirah Island. The tropical cyclone was moving toward the north at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

A low pressure system over the Arabian Sea strengthened quickly into Tropical Cyclone 02A during Monday night. The inner end of a rainband wrapped part way around the center of the tropical cyclone’s circulation. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone 02A. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone 02A will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical cyclone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Arabian Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone 02A will intensify during the next 24 hours. It is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone 02A will move around the northwestern side of a high pressure system over the Indian Ocean during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer the tropical cyclone slowly toward the north. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone 02A will remain over the Arabian Sea during the next few days.

Arlene Weakens to a Tropical Depression

Former Tropical Storm Arlene weakened to a tropical depression northwest of Cuba on Saturday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Arlene was located at latitude 24.2°N and longitude 85.1°W which put it about 145 miles (230 km) west-southwest of Dry Tortugas. Arlene was moving toward the south-southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Arlene weakened to a tropical depression over the Gulf of Mexico northwest of Cuba on Saturday morning. An upper level trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico produced westerly winds that blew across the top of Arlene’s circulation. Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear. In addition, drier air was pulled into the circulation around former Tropical Storm Arlene. The combination of strong vertical wind shear and drier air caused many of the thunderstorms in Arlene’s circulation to weaken. Most of the bands revolving around the center of Tropical Depression Arlene consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. There were still a few thunderstorms in bands on the eastern side of Arlene.

Tropical Depression Arlene will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Arlene will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C.’ However, the southern part of the upper level trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will continue to produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Arlene’s circulation. Those winds will keep causing the strong vertical wind shear. The drier air in the circulation around Arlene will continue to inhibit the formation of thunderstorms. The strong vertical wind shear and the drier air are likely to cause Tropical Depression Arlene to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Depression Arlene will be south of a large surface high pressure system over the eastern U.S. The high pressure system will move south on Saturday and it will push Arlene toward the east-southeast. On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Arlene will move north of Cuba by Saturday evening.

Tropical Depression Two Strengthens to Tropical Storm Arlene

Former Tropical Depression Two strengthened to Tropical Storm Arlene over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Friday afternoon. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Arlene was located at latitude 26.7°N and longitude 86.2°W which put it about 265 miles (425 km) west of Ft. Meyers, Florida. Arlene was moving toward the south at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance plane found sustained wind speeds to tropical storm force in the northeastern part of former Tropical Depression Two on Thursday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Arlene. The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Arlene was asymmetrical. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northeastern quadrant of Arlene’s circulation. Bands in the other parts of the tropical storm consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Arlene generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Arlene. The winds in the other parts of Arlene were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Arlene will move into an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Arlene will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. However, Tropical Storm Arlene will move under the southern part of an upper level trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Arlene’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Drier air to the north and west of Tropical Storm Arlene will continue to inhibit the formation of thunderstorms in the western part of Arlene. The vertical wind shear and the drier air are likely to cause Tropical Storm Arlene to start to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Arlene will be south of a large surface high pressure system over the eastern U.S. The high pressure system will move south on Friday and it will push Tropical Storm Arlene toward the south. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Arlene will stay west of Florida. Arlene could move near the western end of Cuba by Saturday evening.

Tropical Depression Two Forms over Northeast Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Depression Two formed over the northeast Gulf of Mexico on Thursday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Two was located at latitude 28.0°N and longitude 86.6°W which put it about 250 miles (400 km) west of St. Petersburg, Florida. The tropical depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Surface observations from buoys in the Gulf of Mexico and data acquired by a U.S. Air Force Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance plane indicated that a low pressure system over the northeast Gulf of Mexico had formed into a tropical depression on Thursday afternoon. Tropical Depression Two had a broad low level center of circulation. The distribution of thunderstorms in the tropical depression was asymmetrical. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern and northern part of Tropical Depression Two. Bands in the western and southern parts of the tropical depression consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The surface center of Tropical Depression Two was slightly east of the axis of an upper level trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The upper level trough was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of the tropical depression. Those winds were causing vertical wind shear and the wind shear was contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. In addition, drier air was north and west of Tropical Depression Two. The drier air was inhibiting the development of thunderstorms in the western part of the depression’s circulation.

Tropical Depression Two will be in an environment only marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical depression will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. However, the upper level trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will continue to cause vertical wind shear. The drier air will also continue to inhibit the formation of thunderstorms in the western part of the tropical depression. If the vertical wind shear does not get any stronger, then the tropical depression could strengthen to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours. On the other hand, if the wind shear increases, then the tropical depression could start to weaken.

Tropical Depression Two will be south of a large surface high pressure system over the eastern U.S. The steering currents will be weak during the next 12 hours and the tropical depression may not move much. The high pressure system will move south on Friday and it will start to push Tropical Depression Two toward the south. On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Two will stay southwest of Florida. It could move near the western end of Cuba by Saturday night.

Tropical Storm Mawar Brings Wind and Rain to Okinawa

Tropical Storm Mawar brought wind and rain to Okinawa on Thursday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Mawar was located at latitude 26.1°N and longitude 127.5°E which put it about 65 miles (105 km) southwest of Okinawa. Mawar was moving toward the northeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

Former Typhoon Mawar weakened to a tropical storm as it moved closer to Okinawa on Thursday. Even though Mawar was a tropical storm, it still produced gusty winds and rain in Okinawa. A weather station in Naha measured a sustained wind speed of 41 m.p.h. (66 km/h). The distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical in Tropical Storm Mawar. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands east and south of the center of Mawar. Bands in the northern and western parts of Tropical Storm Mawar consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 250 miles (400 km) from the center of Mawar’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Mawar will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Mawar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25˚C. It will move under the eastern part of an upper level trough that is west of Japan. The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Mawar’s circulation. Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Mawar will also pull drier air from Asia into the western part of its circulation. More vertical wind shear and drier air will cause Tropical Storm Mawar to gradually weaken.

The upper level trough west of Japan will steer Tropical Storm Mawar toward the northeast during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Mawar will pass near Okinawa during the next few hours. Weather conditions in Okinawa will start to improve when Tropical Storm Mawar moves away later today. Mawar will pass south of Honshu after it moves away from Okinawa. Tropical Storm Mawar could pass south of Tokyo in less than 48 hours.

Low Pressure System Develops over Gulf of Mexico

A weak low pressure system developed over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. The system was designated as Invest 91L by the National Hurricane Center. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Invest 91L was located at latitude 26.4°N and longitude 85.9°W which put it about 275 miles (445 km) west of Naples, Florida. The low pressure system was nearly stationary. The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

A weak low pressure system developed over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and the system was designated as Invest 91L. The circulation around Invest 91L was not well organized. There was a broad counterclockwise rotation around the center of the low pressure system. At least one smaller center of rotation, that might have formed in a cluster of thunderstorms that dissipated on Tuesday night, was visible in the eastern side of the broader rotation. There were bands of showers and thunderstorms in the eastern and northern sides of the low pressure system. Bands in the western and southern parts of the system consisted primarily of lower clouds.

Invest 91L will be in an environment only marginally favorable for development of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. The surface low pressure system will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. It will be under the eastern side of an upper level trough over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow across the top of Invest 91L. Those winds will cause wind shear and the wind shear will inhibit the development of the surface low pressure system. There is also drier air over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The drier air will inhibit the formation of thunderstorms in the northern and western parts of Invest 91L. The National Hurricane Center is indicating that the probability is 20% that Invest 91L develops into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. A reconnaissance plane is tentatively scheduled to investigate the system on Thursday afternoon, if necessary.

Invest 91L will continued to be under the eastern side of the upper level trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next 24 hours. The steering winds are weak under the upper level trough. So, Invest 91L could move with the upper level trough. The upper level trough is forecast to move slowly toward the east. Invest 91L could move slowly toward the southeast. If Invest 91L develops into a tropical cyclone with taller thunderstorms, then the winds in the middle troposphere could steer it more toward the north. Bands in the eastern side of the low pressure system are likely to bring locally heavy rain to parts of central and south Florida.

Typhoon Mawar Moves South-southeast of Miyakojima

Typhoon Mawar move south-southeast of Miyakojima on Wednesday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Mawar was located at latitude 23.0°N and longitude 125.6°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) south-southeast of Miyakojima, Japan. Mawar was moving toward the north-northeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Typhoon Mawar continued to weaken slowly as it moved closer to the southern Ryukyu Islands on Wednesday. The circulation around Mawar was pulling drier air from Asia into the western part of the typhoon. Bands in the western half of Typhoon Mawar consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Many of the thunderstorms in Mawar were occurring in bands in the eastern half of the typhoon. Storms in the eastern half of Mawar’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the typhoon. Winds to typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Mawar. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of circulation.

Typhoon Mawar will move through an environment that will be less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Mawar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. It will move under the the axis of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. The drier air in the western half of Mawar’s circulation air will inhibit the formation of thunderstorms in that part of the typhoon. In addition, since Typhoon Mawar is moving slowly, winds in the lower levels are likely to mix cooler water to the surface of the Pacific Ocean. The effects of the drier air and mixing of cooler water to the surface of the ocean are likely to cause Typhoon Mawar to weaken gradually during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon Mawar will move around the western part of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Mawar toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Typhoon Mawar will pass a little to the east of Miyakojima in 12 hours. Mawar could approach Okinawa in 24 hours. Mawar is likely to be tropical storm when it reaches Okinawa.

Typhoon Mawar Slows South of the Ryukyu Islands

Typhoon Mawar slowed over the Western North Pacific Ocean south of the Ryukyu Islands on Tuesday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Mawar was located at latitude 20.9°N and longitude 125.0°E which put it about 260 miles (420 km) south of Miyakojima, Japan. Mawar was moving toward the north at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

Typhoon Mawar weakened as it moved slowly toward the Ryukyu Islands on Tuesday. The circulation around Mawar appeared to pull drier air from Asia into the northwestern part of the typhoon. Thunderstorms in bands in the northwestern quadrant of Typhoon Mawar weakened on Tuesday. The northwestern part of the eyewall also weakened. Most of the remaining thunderstorms were occurring in the southern half of Typhoon Mawar. Storms near the center of Mawar’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon. The divergence of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of Typhoon Mawar and the surface pressure continued to increase.

Even though Typhoon Mawar was weaker, it continued to have a large circulation after several eyewall replacement cycles. Winds to typhoon force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Mawar. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 225 miles (360 km) from the center of circulation.

Typhoon Mawar will move through an environment that will become less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Mawar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the the axis of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Drier air will persist northwest of Typhoon Mawar. The drier air will inhibit the formation of thunderstorms in the northern half of Mawar’s circulation. In addition, since Typhoon Mawar is moving slowly, winds in the lower levels are likely to mix cooler water to the surface of the Pacific Ocean. The effects of the drier air and mixing of cooler water to the surface of the ocean are likely to cause Typhoon Mawar to weaken gradually during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon Mawar will move around the western part of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Mawar slowly toward the north during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Typhoon Mawar will be near Miyakojima in 36 hours. Mawar could be near Okinawa in less than 72 hours.