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Tropical Storm Nari Drops Heavy Rain on Honshu

Tropical Storm Nari dropped locally heavy rain and producing gusty winds on Honshu on Friday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Nari was located at latitude 35.2°N and longitude 137.0°E which put it about 10 miles (15 km) east of Nagoya, Japan.  Nari was moving toward the north-northeast at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Storm Nari was dropping locally heavy rain over parts of central Honshu.  The heaviest rain was falling in bands located in the western half of the circulation.  Heavier rain was falling in the area between Nagoya, Osaka and Kyoto.  Bands of heavier rain were also falling north of Nagoya.  Most of the bands in the eastern half of Tropical Storm Nari consisted primarily lighter showers and lower clouds.  The heavier rain could produce flash flooding in some locations.

Tropical Storm Nari will move more toward the east-northeast on Saturday.  The center of Nari is forecast to pass north of Tokyo.  Tropical Storm Nari will continue to drop locally heavy rain over central and eastern Honshu when it moves over those locations.

Tropical Storm Nari Develops South of Japan

Tropical Storm Nari developed south of Japan on Thursday night.  The Japan Meteorological Agency designated a low pressure system south of Honshu as Tropical Storm Nari when the maximum sustained wind speed reached 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Nari was located at latitude 30.2°N and longitude 136.9°E which put it about 350 miles (565 km) south of Nagoya, Japan.  Nari was moving toward the north at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Nari exhibited more of a hybrid structure than the structure of a pure tropical cyclone.  Tropical Storm Nari developed when an upper level low pressure system stalled south of the Japan.  A surface circulation formed beneath the upper low and then more thunderstorms formed closer to the center of circulation.  The original upper level low was located southwest of the surface low on Thursday night.  The upper level low was producing southwesterly winds which were blowing across the surface low.  Those winds were creating vertical wind shear.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Nari showed evidence of the effect of that wind shear.  The stronger thunderstorms were in a band that curved around north and west of the center of circulation.  Bands south and east of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  The wind field around Tropical Storm Nari was also asymmetric.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 115 miles (185 km) to the east of the center of circulation, but only extended out about 60 miles (95 km) to the west of the center.

Tropical Storm Nari will move through an environment only marginally favorable for intensification.  Nari will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  The upper low will continue to cause vertical wind shear, which will inhibit intensification.  The upper low will also pull some drier air around the southern side of the circulation.  Nari could strengthen a little during the next 24 hours if more thunderstorms develop closer to the center of circulation.  Tropical Storm Nari will move under stronger westerly winds in about a day or so.  Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear and they should prevent further intensification.

Tropical Storm Nari will be steered by the interaction of the upper low and a subtropical ridge over the western North Pacific Ocean.  Those two features are likely to steer Nari toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Nari could approach the coast of Honshu near Nagoya in about 24 hours.  Nari will move more toward the east when it reaches the stronger westerly winds in a day or so.  Tropical Storm Nari could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to central Honshu on Saturday.

Tropical Storm Sepat Forms Near Honshu

Tropical Storm Sepat formed near Honshu on Thursday.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of a low pressure system near the southeast coast of Honshu on Thursday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Sepat.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Sepat was located at latitude 32.6°N and longitude 134.7°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) southwest of Susami, Japan.  Sepat was moving toward the northeast at 32 m.p.h. (50 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Storm Sepat was asymmetrical.  The strongest thunderstorms were in several bands south and east of the center of circulation.  Bands in the other parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms southeast of the center of Sepat were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 150 miles (240 km) to the east of the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Sepat will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 12 to 24 hours.  Sepat will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 24°C.  An upper level trough west of Japan will produce strong southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear, which is the primary reason for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.  Moderate vertical wind shear and cooler water will cause the structure of Tropical Storm Sepat to change to that of an extratropical cyclone.  Sepat could strengthen during the extratropical transition because upper level divergence will cause the surface pressure to decrease.

The upper level trough will steer Tropical Storm Sepat rapidly toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Sepat will pass near the coast of Honshu.  Sepat will bring gusty winds and it could drop locally heavy rain.

Large Typhoon Trami Brings Wind and Rain to Japan

Large Typhoon Trami brought wind and rain to Japan on Saturday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Trami was located at latitude 31.8°N and longitude 132.3°E which put it about 140 miles (225 km) southwest of Kochi, Japan.  Trami was moving toward the northeast at 22 m.p.h. (33 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 950 mb.

There was still a large eye at the center of Typhoon Trami, but the ring of thunderstorms around the eye was beginning to look a little more ragged.  However, the circulation around Trami was very large.  Winds to typhoon force extended out about 155 miles (250 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 355 miles (575 km) from the center.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Trami was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 49.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 67.4.  Typhoon Trami was capable of causing extensive serious damage.

Typhoon Trami brought strong winds and heavy rain to Okinawa and the northern Ryukyu Islands on Saturday.  There were reports of damage.  The northern eyewall of Trami passed over Kyushu.  Strong winds and heavy rain were falling in that region.  Heavy rain and strong winds will reach Shikoku shortly.  The center of Typhoon Trami could be near Kyoto in about six hours.  Trami will move northeast across Honshu on Sunday.  It will bring heavy rain and gusty winds to much of Japan.  Flash flooding will be possible over much of Japan.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean Tropical Storm Kong-rey was strengthening southeast of the Ryukyu Islands.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Kong-rey was located at latitude 14.1°N and longitude 138.1°E which put it about 1165 miles (1880 km) east of Manila, Philippines.  Kong-rey was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

Large Typhoon Trami Nears Okinawa

Large Typhoon Trami neared Okinawa late on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Trami was located at latitude 25.1°N and longitude 126.9°E which put it about 135 miles (225 km) south-southwest of Okinawa.  Trami was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

After completing an eyewall replacement cycle over a day ago that left it weaker, but larger, Typhoon Trami has been in a relatively steady state.  There is a very large eye with a diameter of almost 100 miles (160 km) at the center of circulation.  The eye is surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds are occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the large eye.

The circulation around Typhoon Trami is large.  Winds to typhoon force extend out about 75 miles (120 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 235 miles (380 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Trami is 17.8.  Th Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 26.9 and the Hurricane Wind intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 44.7.  Those indices indicate that Typhoon Trami is capable of causing widespread serious damage.

Typhoon Trami is already bringing wind and rain to Okinawa and some of the Ryukyu Islands.  The northern eyewall is over Okinawa and the northern part of the large eye will reach it soon.  Trami will bring strong, damaging winds to Okinawa and the northern Ryukyu Islands during the next 24 hours.  It will also drop heavy rain and flash floods could occur.

Typhoon Trami is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge.  it will start to move more quickly toward the northeast on Sunday.  Trami could reach Shikoku and Honshu in about 48 hours.  Trmai will still be a typhoon when it reaches the larger islands of Japan.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression 30W was passing south of Guam.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression 30W was located at latitude 11.6°N and longitude 145.7°E which put it about 110 miles (185 km) south-southeast of Guam.  It was moving toward the northwest at 27 m.p.h. (43 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.  Tropical Depression 30W is forecast to strengthen and it could take track similar to the path of Typhoon Trami.

Typhoon Jebi Turns Toward Japan

Typhoon Jebi turned toward Japan on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Jebi was located at latitude 23.1°N and longitude 135.4°E which put it about 410 miles (665 km) west-southwest of Iwo To.  Jebi was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h) and there wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 939 mb.

Typhoon Jebi was nearing the completion of an eyewall replacement cycle on Saturday night.  The original inner eyewall had mostly dissipated, although a portion of the lower part of that eyewall was evident on satellite images.  A large circular eye was present at the center of Typhoon Jebi.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Multiple bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Jebi.  Storms around the core were generating strong upper level divergence.  Winds to typhoon force extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 175 miles (280 km) from the center.

Typhoon Jebi will move through an environment capable of supporting a typhoon during the next 48 hours.  Jebi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  Typhoon Jebi will move through an area where the upper level winds are relatively weak on Sunday. Jebi will move closer to an upper level trough northwest of Japan on Monday.  Stronger southwesterly winds will cause more vertical wind shear and Typhoon Jebi will start to weaken at that time.

Typhoon Jebi will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  Jebi will turn more toward the north on Sunday.  The upper level trough northwest of Japan will steer Typhoon Jebi more toward the northeast on Monday.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Jebi could approach Shikoku and Honshu in about two days.  Jebi is forecast to be a typhoon when it approaches Japan.

Typhoon Jebi Strengthens to Equivalent of Cat. 5 Hurricane

Powerful Typhoon Jebi strengthened into the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Friday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Jebi was located at latitude 18.8°N and longitude 141.0°E which put it about 400 miles (645 km) south of Iwo To.  Jebi was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 210 m.p.h. (335 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 907 mb.

The circulation of Typhoon Jebi was very well organized and symmetrical.  There was a circular eye at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Numerous bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon in all directions.

Jebi is a large and powerful typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extended out about 65 miles (105 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 195 miles (315 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Jebi was 40.4.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 21.6 and the Hurricane Wind intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 62.0.

Typhoon Jebi may have reached its maximum intensity.  Microwave satellite imagery suggested that an inner rainband may have wrapped around the existing eye and eyewall.  If that has occurred, then an eyewall replacement cycle may have begun.  An eyewall replacement cycle will cause a typhoon to weaken when the inner eyewall, where the strongest wind are, dissipates.

Typhoon Jebi will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  Jebi will gradually turn toward the north as it moves around the end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Jebi should pass west of Iwo To.  Jebi could be approaching Japan in three days or so.

Typhoon Jebi Hits Northern Marianas

Typhoon Jebi hit the Northern Mariana Islands on Thursday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Jebi was located at latitude 17.8°N and longitude 146.2°E which put it about 35 miles (55 km) east-southeast of Pagan.  Jebi was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (230 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 940 mb.  A Typhoon Warning was in effect for Agrihan, Pagan and Alamagan.

Typhoon Jebi was very well organized.  There was a small eye at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Jebi.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon.

Winds to typhoon force extended out about 50 miles (80 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 185 miles (295 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Jebi was 23.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 19.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 43.0.  Those indices indicate that Typhoon Jebi was capable of causing major damage.

Typhoon Jebi will be moving through an environment favorable for intensification during the next day or so.  Jebi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Jebi is forecast to intensify during the next 24 hours.  If an outer rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause the typhoon to weaken at least temporarily.

Typhoon Jebi will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  Jebi will make a gradual turn toward the north during the next few days while it moves around the end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Jebi will move slowly away from the Northern Marianas.  Weather conditions should slowly improve when Jebi moves away.  The center of Jebi is forecast to pass south of Iwo To.  Typhoon Jebi could approach Honshu in four or five days.

Typhoon Jebi Intensifies Rapidly East of Northern Marianas

Typhoon Jebi intensified rapidly east of the Northern Marianas on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Jebi was located at latitude 17.5°N and longitude 149.8°E which put it about 270 miles (435 km) east of Pagan.  Jebi was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.  A Typhoon Warning was in effect for Agrihan, Pagan and Alamagan in the Northern Marianas.

The circulation of Typhoon Jebi was very well organized and it was symmetrical.  A small circular eye formed at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Jebi.  Storms around the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping large quantities of mass away from the typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extended out about 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center.

Typhoon Jebi will be moving through an environment very favorable for further intensification.  Jebi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Jebi is likely to intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane on Thursday.

Typhoon Jebi will move south of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific for several more days.  The ridge will steer Jebi in a general westerly direction during that time.  Typhoon Jebi will reach the western end of the ridge in about 48 hours.  Jebi will make a gradual turn toward the north when it reaches the end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Jebi will reach the northernmost Mariana Islands within 24 hours.  Jebi will be capable of causing major damage when it arrives.  Jebi is forecast to pass south of Iwo To, but it will turn toward the major islands of Japan during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Jebi Forms East of the Marianas

Tropical Storm Jebi formed east of the Marianas on Monday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Jebi was located at latitude 15.8°N and longitude 156.6°E which put it about 745 miles (1200 km) east of Saipan.  Jebi was moving toward the northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A distinct low level center of circulation developed in a cluster of showers and thunderstorms east of the Northern Marianas and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Jebi.  The circulation of Jebi was still organizing.  A primary rainband wrapped around the eastern and northern sides of the center of circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing in the eastern half of the circulation.  Storms near the center started to generate upper level divergence.

Tropical Storm Jebi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Jebi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce southerly winds which will cause some vertical wind shear.  Two upper level lows northwest and northeast of Jebi will enhance upper level divergence to the north of the tropical storm.  Tropical Storm Jebi will strengthen and it could become a typhoon later this week.

Tropical Storm Jebi will move southwest of a ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge is forecast to strengthen and it will steer Jebi in a general west-northwesterly direction during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Jebi could be near the northernmost Mariana Islands in about three days.  Jebi could be a typhoon by that time.  Jebi could be south of Iwo To by the end of the week.