Tag Archives: Vietnam

Typhoon Nock-ten Rapidly Intensifies Into Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Typhoon Nock-ten intensified rapidly into the equivalent of a major hurricane on Friday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Typhoon Nock-ten was located at latitude 13.2°N and longitude 128.6°E which put it about 545 miles (880 km) east of Manila, Philippines.  Nock-ten was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (18 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 935 mb.

Nock-ten is a very well organized typhoon.  There is an eye with a diameter of 14 miles (23 km) at the center of Typhoon Nock-ten.  The eye is surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms.  Additional bands of thunderstorms surround the core of the circulation.  Winds to typhoon force extend out about 40 miles (65 km) from the center.  Thunderstorms around the center are generating strong upper level divergence in all directions.  The divergence is pumping out large amounts of mass which allowed the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) is 23.6 and the Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 15.5.  The Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 39.1.  Those indices indicate that Typhoon Nock-ten is capable of causing major regional wind damage.

Typhoon Nock-ten will continue to move through an environment that is very favorable for intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Nock-ten could intensify more during the next 24 hours and it could become a super typhoon before it reaches the Philippines.

A subtropical ridge to the north of Nock-ten is steering the typhoon toward the west and that general motion is expected to continue.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Nock-ten could be near Catanduanes Island within 36 hours.  Nock-ten is likely to pass across southern Luzon and the center could move close to Manila.  Typhoon Nock-ten will be capable of causing major wind damage.  It will also bring heavy rain and create the potential for floods and mudslides.

Tropical Storm Nock-ten Strengthens on Its Way to the Philippines

Tropical Storm Nock-ten strengthened as it moved closer to the Philippines on Thursday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Nock-ten was located at latitude 12.0°N and longitude 132.7°E which put it about 850 miles (1370 km) east-southeast of Manila, Philippines.  Nock-ten was moving toward the west-northwest at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

Even though Tropical Storm Nock-ten moved quickly on Thursday the circulation continued to organized.  A mid-level eye appeared to develop on microwave satellite imagery.  Additional rainbands developed outside the core of the tropical storm.  Thunderstorms around the core of Nock-ten generated strong upper level divergence that pumped out mass in all directions.

Tropical Storm Nock-ten is moving through an environment that is favorable for intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge to the east of Nock-ten is producing southeasterly winds that are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  However, Tropical Storm Nock-ten is moving fairly rapidly toward the west-northwest.  The rapid motion is reducing the effective vertical wind shear, and so the wind shear is not inhibiting intensification.  Tropical Storm Nock-ten will continue to strengthen and it should become a typhoon within 12 to 24 hours.

A subtropical ridge to the north of Nock-ten is steering the tropical storm toward the west-northwest.  That general motion is expected to continue for another 24 to 36 hours.  The subtropical ridge is expected to strengthen after that time and it will steer Nock-ten more toward the west.  On its anticipated track Nock-ten will approach southeast Luzon in about 48 hours.

Nock-ten is likely to be a strong typhoon when it reaches the Philippines.  It could be the equivalent of a major hurricane.  In addition to strong winds, Nock-ten will generate a storm surge  and produce locally heavy rains.  It will produce a risk of floods and mudslides.

Tropical Storm Tokage Develops Over the Central Philippines

A distinct center of circulation developed within a cluster of thunderstorms over the central Philippines on Thursday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Tokage.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Tokage was located at latitude 11.7°N and longitude 122.0°E which put it near the northwestern tip of Panay Island and about 235 miles (380 km) south-southeast of Manila, Philippines.  Tokage was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

The core of the circulation of Tropical Storm Tokage is still organizing.  An inner band of thunderstorms wraps around the western and southern sides of the center of circulation.  An outer rainband wraps around the northern side of the circulation from the northeastern to the southwestern quadrants.  Thunderstorms near the core of Tokage are generating upper level divergence which is pumping mass away to the west and north of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Tokage will be moving through an environment that is favorable for intensification.  Tokage will be moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level ridge east of Tokage is producing southeasterly winds which are blowing against the tropical storm.  Although those winds are restricting upper level divergence on the southeast side of Tokage, the overall effect of the vertical wind shear is minor.  Tropical Storm Tokage is likely to intensify during the next day or two and it could reach typhoon intensity.

Tokage is moving around the southwestern portion of a subtropical ridge which is steering the tropical storm to the west-northwest.  That general motion is expected to continue for another 12 to 24 hours.   After that time Tropical Storm Tokage will reach the western end of the subtropical ridge and it will begin to move toward the north.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Tokage will pass near Mindoro Island and the Calamian Group during the next 12 hours.  It will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to those islands.  Tokage is likely to pass west of Luzon.

Typhoon Sarika Making Landfall on Hainan Island

The center of Typhoon Sarika is making landfall on Hainan Island near Qionghai and Wanning.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Sarika was located at latitude 19.1°N and longitude 110.4°E which put it near Qionghai, China.  Sarika was moving toward the west-northwest at 11 m.p.h. (18 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

The structure of Typhoon Sarika changed after it moved across the Philippines.  It developed a larger eye and more of the thunderstorms occurred in a primary rainband that wrapped around the western and southern parts of the circulation.  Sarika maintained that structure as it made landfall on Hainan Island, although were some indications in satellite imagery that they eye was contracting just prior to landfall.

Typhoon Sarika will weaken while the center passes over Hainan Island.  Sarika could be a tropical storm by the time the center emerges over the Gulf of Tongking.  The Sea Surface Temperature in the Gulf of Tongking is near 31°C.  So, evaporation could provide another source of energy and moisture while the center is over water.

Typhoon Sarika is being steered toward the west-northwest by a subtropical ridge and that general motion is expected to continue for another day or so.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Sarika will spend the next few hours moving across Hainan Island.  Sarika could make another landfall over northern Vietnam and southern China in about 24 to 30 hours.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 11.5 for Typhoon Sarika.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 24.7.  These indices indicate that Typhoon Sarika is capable of causing regional, minor wind damage.  Sarika will also bring locally heavy which could cause floods over Hainan Island and parts of northern Vietnam and southern China.

Typhoons Sarika and Haima Churning Over Western North Pacific

Typhoons Sarika and Haima churned across the western North Pacific Ocean on Sunday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Sarika was located at latitude 17.3°N and longitude 113.7°E which put it about 240 miles (390 km) east-southeast of Hainan Island.  Sarika was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (27 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 970 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Haima was located at latitude 13.2°N and longitude 135.9°E which put it about 935 miles (1505 km) east-southeast of Luzon.  Haima was moving toward the west-northwest at 17 m.p.h. (27 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

The circulation of Typhoon Sarika was disrupted somewhat when it crossed northern Luzon.  Thunderstorms around the eye weakened and breaks developed in the eyewall.  More and stronger thunderstorms developed around the center of circulation today and an eye has become more apparent on satellite imagery.  Numerous rainbands are rotating around the rest of the circulation.  Upper level divergence is increasing, which will increase the removal of mass from the core of Typhoon Sarika.

Typhoon Sarika is moving through an environment that is favorable for intensification.  Sarika is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is above 30°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Sarika is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours and it could intensify quickly if the eye finishes reforming.

A subtropical ridge is steering Typhoon Sarika toward the west .  Sarika is nearing the western end of the ridge and the typhoon is expected to turn more toward the northwest.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Sarika could be near Hainan Island in about 24 hours.  After it crosses Hainan Island, Marika could approach the coast of northern Vietnam in about two days.  Typhoon Sarika will bring strong winds and very heavy rain to Hainan.  It will weaken when it moves across Hainan, but Sarika could also bring gusty winds and heavy rain to northern Vietnam and parts of southeastern China.

Typhoon Haima is developing into a very strong and dangerous typhoon.  Haima has a small eye at the center of circulation.  The eye is surrounded by a ring of very strong thunderstorms.  Rainbands are rotating around the core of the circulation.  Thunderstorms in the core of Typhoon Haima are generating upper level divergence which is pumping out mass in all directions.

Typhoon Haima is moving through an environment that is favorable for continued intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is 30°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Haima is likely to continue to intensify and it could reach super typhoon status.

A subtropical ridge is steering Typhoon Haima toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Haima could be near the northern end of Luzon in about three days.  It could be a very powerful typhoon at that time.

Powerful Typhoon Sarika Makes Landfall in Luzon

Powerful Typhoon Sarika made landfall in Luzon near Baler on Saturday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Sarika was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 122.3°E which put it near Baler, Philippines and about 130 miles (210 km) east-northeast of Manila.  Sarika was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 941 mb.

Sarika is a powerful, well organized typhoon.  It has a circular eye surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms.  Additional rainbands are rotating around the core of Sarika.  The core of Typhoon Sarika is generating well developed upper level divergence which is pumping out mass in all directions.  Typhoon Sarika was intensifying rapidly until it made landfall.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Sarika is 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 17.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 37.6.  These indices indicate that Typhoon Sarika is capable of causing regional major wind damage.  Typhoon Sarika will also generate a storm surge along the coast of Luzon north of the eye where the wind will push water toward the coast.  Sarika will also produce heavy rain over northern Luzon which will create a risk of flash flooding and mudslides.

A subtropical ridge is steering Typhoon Marika toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track across Luzon the center of Typhoon Sarika will pass near San Jose City,  Baguio and Dagupan.  The center of Sarika could emerge over the South China Sea near the Lingayen Gulf.  The core of Typhoon Sarika will move across the Sierra Madre Mountains and the Cordillera Central.  Where winds blow up the slopes of the mountains, rising motion will be stronger and the rainfall will be heavier.  The mountains will also disrupt the airflow in the lower part of Sarika’s circulation and the typhoon will weaken.

It could take the center of Typhoon Sarika about 12 hours to move across Luzon.  The environment of the Sea China Sea will  be favorable for intensification.  The Sea Surface Temperature is warm and there will be little vertical wind shear.  If the core of the circulation remains reasonably intact, then Typhoon Sarika could intensify again while it moves across the South China Sea.  Sarika could eventually move near Hainan Island and into northern Vietnam in a few days.

Typhoon Sarika Near Catanduanes Island, Threatens Luzon

The center of Typhoon Sarika is located near Catanduanes Island and Sarika poses a serious threat to Luzon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Sarika was located at latitude 14.4°N and longitude 124.8°E which put it about 280 miles (455 km) east of Manila, Philippines.  Sarika was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

The circulation of Typhoon Sarika is well organized.  An eye has appeared at times on conventional and microwave satellite imagery.  A primary rainband wrapped around the eye and strong thunderstorms are occurring in the eyewall.  Additional, well formed rainbands are rotating around the core of the circulation.  The convection around the core is generating well developed upper level divergence which is pumping away mass.

Typhoon Sarika is moving through a very favorable environment.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Sarika will continue to intensify as long as the center stays over the water and it could intensify rapidly now that the circulation is well organized.

A subtropical ridge north of Sarika is steering the typhoon toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Sarika will remain north of Catanduanes Island.  It will pass just to the north of Daet and Labo on Saturday.  The center of Typhoon Sarika could be near or just to the north of the Polillo Islands in 12-16 hours.  Sarika could make a landfall near Baler on Luzon in 18-24 hours.

Sarika is a well organized intensifying typhoon.  It could bring strong winds to portions of northern Luzon.  Typhoon Sarika will also bring very heavy rain and create the potential for flash floods and mudslides.  Sarika will generate a storm surge in places where the wind blows the water toward the coast.

Tropical Storm Sarika Forms East of the Philippines

Tropical Storm Sarika formed east of the Philippines on Thursday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Sarika was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 127.0°W which put it about 425 miles (685 km) east of Manila, Philippines.  Sarika was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (18 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Sarika is still organizing.  Most of the thunderstorms are occurring in a broad rainband that curls around the western and southern sides of the circulation.  There are a few thunderstorms in thinner rainbands in the eastern half of the circulation.  More thunderstorms are developing closer to the center of circulation.  Those thunderstorms are beginning to produce upper level divergence which is pumping out mass.  As the mass is removed, the pressure decreases and the wind speeds increase.

Tropical Storm Sarika is moving through an environment that is generally favorable for intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge to the north of Sarika is producing easterly winds which are blowing across the top of the tropical storm.  The vertical wind shear may account for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms, but it is not strong enough to prevent Sarika from intensifying.  The vertical wind shear could slow the rate of intensification while the core of the circulation becomes better organized.  Sarika could strengthen into a typhoon with the next 24 to 36 hours.

A subtropical ridge north of Sarika is steering the tropical storm toward the west and that general motion is expected to continue for another 12 to 24 hours.  In a day or so Tropical Storm Sarika is forecast to turn more toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Sarika could be near Catanduanes Island in about 24 hours.  Sarika could be near Central Luzon in about 48 hours.

Tropical Storm Sarika is expected to intensify into a typhoon.  It could bring strong winds and very heavy rain to parts of the northern Philippines.  The heavy rain could cause flash floods and mudslides.

Tropical Storm Dianmu Forms Near Hainan Island

A center of circulation developed within a larger cyclonic rotation associated with the monsoon near Hainan Island and the Japan Meteorological Agency classified the system as Tropical Storm Dianmu.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Dianmu was located at latitude 20.5°N and longitude 109.7°E which put it about 265 miles (430 km) east of Hanoi, Vietnam.  Dianmu was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Dianmu consists of a smaller counterclockwise rotation inside a much larger cyclonic flow associated with the monsoonal circulation.  Thunderstorms clustered around the western and southern portion of the smaller counterclockwise rotation and a distinct inner core developed that is separate from the broader center of the monsoonal gyre.  Additional spiral bands formed outside the core.  The thunderstorms are generating upper level divergence, primarily to the south and west of Tropical Storm Diamnu.

Tropical Storm Dianmu is moving through an environment that is favorable for additional strengthening.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  An upper level ridge centered over China is producing easterly winds which are blowing across the top of Tropical Storm Dianmu.  Those winds are causing moderate vertical wind shear, which is slowing the rate of intensification of the tropical storm.  The proximity of Dianmu to the coast is also slowing the rate of intensification.  Tropical Storm Dianmu has 12 to 18 hours to intensify before it moves over land.

The upper level ridge over China is steering Tropical Storm Dianmu toward the west and that general motion is expected to continue.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Dianmu could reach the coast of Vietnam in 12 to 18 hours.  Dianmu could cause some minimal wind damage and storm surge, but heavy rain will be the greatest threat.  Tropical Storm Dianmu could cause flash flooding when it moves inland over Southeast Asia.

Typhoon Nida Makes Landfall Near Hong Kong

Typhoon Nida made landfall on Monday near Hong Kong on the coast of China.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Nida was located at latitude 22.8°N and longitude 114.4°E which put it about 50 miles (80 km) east-northeast of Hong Kong.  Nida was moving toward the northwest t 13 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 95 m.p.h. (155 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 963 mb.

Typhoon Nida made landfall on the southeast coast of China just to the north of Hong Kong.  The core of Nida is large and the typhoon is capable of causing wind damage on a regional scale.  Wind blowing toward the coast could also generate a storm surge until Typhoon Nida moves farther inland.  However, very heavy rain and fresh water flooding are much greater risks as Nida moves farther inland over China.

A subtropical ridge north of Nida is steering the typhoon toward the northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for the next several days.  The ridge will steer Nida farther inland over southeastern China.  Typhoon Nida’s fairly slow motion and large size mean that heavy rain could fall over an expansive area.  The risk for flooding will continue as Nida moves inland.