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Karina Strengthens to a Hurricane

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Former Tropical Storm Karina strengthened to a hurricane as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Saturday night.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Karina was located at latitude 17.3°N and longitude 121.1°W which put the center about 820 miles (1325 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Karina was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Karina strengthened to a hurricane on Saturday night.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western and southern sides of the center of Karina’s circulation.  An eye appeared to be forming at the center of Hurricane Karina.

The distribution of thunderstorms in Hurricane Karina was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were mostly occurring in bands in the southern half of Karina’s circulation.  Bands in the northern half of Hurricane Karina consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Karina generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northeastern part of Hurricane Karina.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Karina’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 230 miles (370 km) from the center of Hurricane Karina.

Hurricane Karina will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Karina will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, there is a mass of drier air just to the west and north of Hurricane Karina.  The drier air will inhibit intensification of Karina, but the drier air probably will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Hurricane Karina is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.  Karina could intensify rapidly at times, if the drier air does not get pulled into its circulation.  Karina strengthen to a major hurricane by Monday morning.

Hurricane Karina will move around the southern part of a high pressure system that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Karina toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Karina will move farther away from Baja California.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Lowell was moving west toward the Central Pacific.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was located at latitude 13.2°N and longitude 139.1°W which put the center about 1150 miles (1850 km) east-southeast Hilo, Hawaii.  Lowell was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Storm Iselle Forms South of Baja California

Tropical Storm Iselle formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Sunday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Iselle was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 114.2°W which put the center about 595 miles (955 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Iselle was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California strengthened on Sunday morning and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Iselle.

The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Iselle was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern part of Iselle’s circulation.  Bands in the northern side of Tropical Storm Iselle consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Iselle generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and west of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Wind to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Tropical Storm Iselle.

Tropical Storm Iselle will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Iselle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level ridge that is south of Baja California.  The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Iselle’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Estelle could intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Iselle will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Iselle toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipate track, Tropical Storm Iselle will remain far to the southwest of Baja California.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Moke was passing south of the Big Island of Hawaii and Tropical Storm Lala was spinning far to the northwest of Hawaii.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Moke was located at latitude 15.2°N and longitude 155.0°W which put the center about 310 miles (500 km) south of Hilo, Hawaii. Moke was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Lala was located at latitude 32.1°N and longitude 173.9°W which put the center about 365 miles (590 km) northeast of Kure Atoll.  Lala was moving toward the west-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Storm Moke Prompts Flood Watches for Hawaii

A potential chance of heavy rain caused by Tropical Storm Moke prompted the U.S. National Weather Service to issue a Flood Watch for portions of the Big Island of Hawaii on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Moke was located at latitude 14.9°N and longitude 151.1°W which put the center about 425 miles (680 km) southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.  Moke was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Flood Watches are in effect for the windward and southeastern parts of the Big Island of Hawaii.

Tropical Storm Moke strengthened a little on Saturday.  Even though Moke was a little stronger, the distribution of thunderstorms was still asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern side of Moke’s circulation.  Bands in the southern side of Tropical Storm Moke consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

An upper level trough that was just east of Hawaii was continuing to produce southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Tropical Storm Moke.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear was causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Moke was also asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the northern side of Moke’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the southern half of Tropical Storm Moke.

Tropical Storm Moke will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Moke will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  However, the upper level trough just east of Hawaii will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.  In addition, Tropical Storm Moke will move into a mass of drier air that is south of Hawaii.  The vertical wind shear and the drier air are likely to cause Tropical Storm Moke to start to weaken on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Moke will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is north of Hawaii.  The high pressure system will steer Moke toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Moke will start to pass south of Hawaii on Sunday.

Bands in the northern part of Tropical Storm Moke could bring gusty winds to the Big Island of Hawaii.  The strongest winds will occur at higher elevations.  Those same bands could also drop heavy rain over parts of the Big Island.  Heavy rain would likely cause flash floods because the ground is still saturated from rain caused by Hurricane Lala.

Flood Watches are in effect for the windward and southeastern parts of the Big Island of Hawaii.

Elsewhere over the Central North Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Lala was weakening gradually as it moved far to the northwest of Hawaii.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Lala was located at latitude 31.0°N and longitude 172.7°W which put the center about 380 miles (614 km) east-northeast of Kure Atoll.  Lala was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Depression Strengthens to Tropical Storm Moke

Former Tropical Depression Two-C strengthened to Tropical Storm Moke southeast of Hawaii on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Moke was located at latitude 13.9°N and longitude 147.2°W which put the center about 660 miles (1060 km) southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.  Moke was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance plane found that former Tropical Depression Two-C had strengthened on Friday and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Moke.

Even though Former Tropical Depression Two-C strengthened on Friday, the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Moke was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern side of Moke’s circulation.  Bands in the southern side of Tropical Storm Moke consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

An upper level trough that was just east of Hawaii was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Tropical Storm Moke.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear was causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Moke was also asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) in the northern side of Moke’s circulation.  The winds in the southern half of Tropical Storm Moke were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Moke will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Moke will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  However, the upper level trough just east of Hawaii will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Moke could continue to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Moke will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is north of Hawaii.  The high pressure system will steer Moke toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Moke will pass south of Hawaii during the weekend.

Elsewhere over the Central North Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Lala moved north of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument.   At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Lala was located at latitude 28.6°N and longitude 170.4°W which put the center about 230 miles (420 km) north of Maro Reef.  Lala was moving toward the north-northeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

Tropical Depression Forms East-southeast of Hawaii

Tropical Depression Two-C formed east-southeast of Hawaii on Thursday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Two-C was located at latitude 11.9°N and longitude 143.1°W which put the center about 960 miles (1545 km) east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.  The tropical depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A low pressure system over the Central North Pacific Ocean east-southeast of Hawaii strengthened on Thursday morning and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Two-C.

The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Depression Two-C was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western side of Tropical Depression Two-C.  Bands in the eastern side of the tropical depression consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical depression.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to start to decrease.

Tropical Depression Two-C will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge that is over the Eastern and Central North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Depression Two-C.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification but the wind shear will probably not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Depression Two-C is likely to intensify slowly during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Depression Two-C will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Central North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical depression toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Two-C will move closer to Hawaii.

Elsewhere over the Central Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Lala was nearing the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Lala was located at latitude 24.2°N and longitude 172.2°W which put the center about 175 miles (280 km) southeast of Lisianski Island.  Lala was moving toward the north-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Lisianski Island to Maro Reef.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Maro Reef to French Frigate Shoals.

Tropical Storm Lala Strengthens, Hurricane Warning for Hawaii

Tropical Storm Lala strengthened on Thursday evening.  A Hurricane Warning was issued for the Big Island of Hawaii.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Lala was located at latitude 16.2°N and longitude 147.5°W which put the center about 555 miles (890 km) east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.  Lala was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Hawaii County.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Maui County including Maui, Lanai, Molokai, and Kahoolawe.

Reconnaissance aircraft found that Tropical Storm Lala had strengthened on Thursday evening.  Even though Lala was stronger, the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring mainly in bands north and east of the center of Tropical Storm Lala.  Bands in the southern and western parts of Lala’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Lala generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northern side of Tropical Storm Lala.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 275 miles (445 km) in the northern half of Lala’s circulation.   The winds in the southern half of Tropical Storm Lala were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Lala will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Lala will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the eastern part of an upper level ridge that is east of Hawaii.  The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Lala’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Lala will move into a region of drier air as it approaches Hawaii.  Tropical Storm Lala is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours even with the effects of the wind shear and drier air.  Lala could strengthen to a hurricane during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Storm Lala will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Central Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Lala toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Lala will move toward Hawaii. The center of Lala’s circulation could reach the Big Island of Hawaii on within 48 hours.

Tropical Storm Lala could be a hurricane when it approaches the Big Island of Hawaii.  Lala will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Big Island of Hawaii.  Lala could drop 10 to 15 inches (2554 to 380 mm) of rain on the eastern slopes where the wind blows of the slope.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for the Big Island of Hawaii and for Maui.

Tropical Storm Lala Forms, Hurricane Watch for Hawaii

Tropical Storm Lala formed over the Central Pacific Ocean east-southeast of Hawaii on Thursday morning.  A Hurricane Watch was issued for the Big Island of Hawaii.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Lala was located at latitude 15.4°N and longitude 145.8°W which put the center about 680 miles (1095 km) east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.  Lala was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Hawaii County.

More thunderstorms formed near the center of a low pressure system formerly called Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C on Thursday morning and the U.S. Central Pacific Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Lala.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Lala exhibited more organization on Thursday.  New thunderstorms were developing near the center of Lala’s circulation.  Other thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern and eastern parts of Tropical Storm Lala.  Storms near the center of Lala generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the eastern half of Tropical Storm Lala.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Lala’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the southeastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Lala.  The winds in the western half of Lala’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Lala will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Lala will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the eastern part of an upper level ridge that is east of Hawaii.  The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Lala’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Lala will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Lala will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Central Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Lala toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Lala will move toward Hawaii.  Lala could reach the Big Island of Hawaii on Saturday.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Hernan strengthened a little as it moved far to the west of Baja California.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Hernan was located at latitude 18.0°N and longitude 131.9°W which put the center about 1460 miles (2350 km) west of the the southern tip of Baja California.  Hernan was moving toward the west-southwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Storm Hernan Forms West of Baja California

Tropical Storm Hernan formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Baja California on Wednesday night.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Hernan was located at latitude 18.1°N and longitude 131.9°W which put the center about 1460 miles (2350 km) west of the the southern tip of Baja California.  Hernan was moving toward the west at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean strengthened on Wednesday night and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Hernan.

The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Hernan was asymmetrical.  An upper level trough near the West Coast of the U.S. was producing westerly winds that were blowing toward the top of Hernan’s circulation.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear was causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Hernan.

Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Hernan.  Bands in the western side of Hernan’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Hernan generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Even though the thunderstorms were in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Hernan, the strongest winds were occurring in the western side of Hernan.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 40 miles (65 km) in the western side of Hernan’s circulation.  The winds in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Hernan were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Hernan will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Hernan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  However, the upper level trough near the West Coast of the U.S. will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Hernan is unlikely to intensify during the next 24 hours because of the vertical wind shear.

Tropical Storm Hernan will move around the southern part of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Hernan toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Hernan will remain far to the west of Baja California.

Elsewhere, Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C moved closer to Hawaii.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C was located at latitude 14.8°N and longitude 144.5°W which put the center about 775 miles (1250 km) east-southeast of Hilo,Hawaii.   It was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).   The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).   The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Fausto Passes Northeast of Hawaii

Tropical Storm Fausto was weakening as it passed northeast of Hawaii on Tuesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Fausto was located at latitude 22.5°N and longitude 152.2°W which put the center about 270 miles (435 km) northeast of Hilo, Hawaii.  Fausto was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Tropical Storm Fausto was weakening as it passed northeast of Hawaii on Tuesday afternoon.  An upper level trough that was located north of Hawaii was producing strong southwesterly winds that were blowing across the top of Fausto’s circulation.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear.  The strong upper level winds were also blowing the tops off of many of the thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Fausto.

Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the eastern edge of Tropical Storm Fausto.  Bands in the other parts of Fausto’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  There were no thunderstorms near the center of Fausto to generate upper level divergence to pump mass away from the tropical storm.  Convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere was causing the surface pressure to increase.

The strongest winds were blowing on the northern side of Tropical Storm Fausto.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) in the northern side of Fausto’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the southern side of Tropical Storm Fausto.

Tropical Storm Fausto will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Fausto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  However, the upper level trough north of Hawaii will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Fausto will continue to weaken steadily during the next 24 hours.  Fausto is likely to weaken to a tropical depression on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Fausto will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Central North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Fausto toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Fausto will continue to pass north of Hawaii on Wednesday.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Genevieve was weakening gradually as it moved southwest of Baja California.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Genevieve was located at latitude 18.0°N and longitude 116.9°W which put the center about 565 miles (910 km) southwest of southern tip of Baja California.  Genevieve was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.

Hurricane Genevieve Intensifies to Cat. 5

Hurricane Genevieve intensified to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Sunday night as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Genevieve was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 112.2°W which put the center about 530 miles (855 km) south-southwest of southern tip of Baja California.  Genevieve was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 925 mb.

Hurricane Genevieve intensified to Category 5 on Sunday night.  A circular eye with a diameter of 23 miles (37 km) was at the center of Genevieve’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Genevieve’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Genevieve generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large amounts of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The distribution of wind speeds in Hurricane Genevieve became more symmetrical on Sunday night.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Genevieve’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (315 km) from the center of Hurricane Genevieve.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Genevieve was 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HII) was 16.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 51.5.  Hurricane Genevieve was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Michael when Michael hit Northwest Florida in 2018.

Hurricane Genevieve will move into an environment that will become slighyly less favorable for an intense hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Genevieve will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, Genevieve will start to move into a region where the air is a little drier later today.  Hurricane Genevieve is likely to start to weaken when it moves into the region of drier air.

Hurricane Genevieve will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Southwest U.S.  The high pressure system will steer Genevieve toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Genevieve will move parallel to the coast of Baja California.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Fausto continued to weaken slowly as it moved over the Central North Pacific Ocean east of Hawaii.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Fausto was located at latitude 20.4°N and longitude 144.8°W which put the center about 670 miles (1080 km) east of Hilo, Hawaii.  Fausto was moving toward the west-northwes at 14 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.