Tag Archives: Lesser Antilles

Tropical Depression Three Forms East of Lesser Antilles

Tropical Depression Three formed over the Atlantic Ocean east of the Lesser Antilles on Monday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Three was located at latitude 11.0°N and longitude 40.3°W which put it about 1425 miles (2295 km) east of the Lesser Antilles. Tropical Depression Three was moving toward the west at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

A circulation within a tropical wave previously designated as Invest 92L strengthened on Monday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Three. More thunderstorms were developing near the center of Tropical Depression Three. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Three will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Depression Three is likely to strengthen to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours. It could strengthen to a hurricane later this week.

Tropical Depression Three will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The subtropical high will steer the tropical depression toward the west during the next 36 hours. It could move more toward the west-northwest later this week. On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Three could approach the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. It could be a hurricane by that time.

Potential Development over Tropical Atlantic

A tropical wave over the eastern Atlantic Ocean has the potential to develop into a tropical depression during the next few days. The tropical wave has been designated as Invest 92L. At 2:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Invest 92L was located at latitude 10.1°N and longitude 26.2°W which put it about 2265 miles (3655 km) east of the Lesser Antilles. The tropical wave was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1011 mb.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) indicated that there was a high probability (70%) a tropical wave over the eastern Atlantic Ocean will develop into a tropical depression during the next seven days. NHC designated the system as Invest 92L. The tropical wave was already exhibiting signs of organization on Saturday morning. Visible satellite images provided evidence of some rotation in the middle levels of the tropical wave. More thunderstorms were forming in bands associated with the tropical wave.

The tropical wave will move through an environment favorable for the formation of a tropical depression during the next few days. Invest 92L will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Invest 92L is likely to develop into a tropical depression during the next few days.

The tropical wave will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The subtropical high will steer Invest 92L toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track, Invest 92L will move toward the Lesser Antilles.

Strong Tropical Wave over Eastern Atlantic

A strong tropical wave was over the eastern Atlantic Ocean on Thursday night. The tropical wave was designated as Invest 94L. It was located along longitude 27.0°W which put it about 2200 miles (3560 km) east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles. The tropical wave was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1012 mb.

The axis of a strong tropical wave, also designated as Invest 94L, was located along longitude 27.0°W. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring south of latitude 11.0°N. Satellite derived data indicated that there was some rotation near the axis of the wave. Thunderstorms near the axis of the tropical wave generated upper level divergence.

The tropical wave will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the tropical wave toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track the tropical wave could approach the Lesser Antilles on Tuesday.

The tropical wave will move through an environment that is favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone. The wave will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. It will move through a region where the winds in the troposphere will blow from the east at most levels and there will be little vertical wind shear. The National Hurricane Center is indicating the probability is 40% that the tropical wave develops into a tropical depression during the next five days.

Tropical Depression 13 Forms, Watch Issued for Saba and St. Eustatius

Tropical Depression Thirteen formed about 1000 miles (1600 km) east of the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 47.9°W which put it about 1035 miles (1670 km) east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands.  The depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for Saba and St. Eustatius.

A distinct center of circulation developed within a tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Thirteen.  The circulation around the depression was still organizing.  Thunderstorms were building near the newly formed center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing.  The stronger thunderstorms were in bands in the northern half of the circulation.  Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the depression.

Tropical Depression Thirteen will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few days.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Depression Thirteen will likely strengthen gradually at first while the circulation is organizing.  If an inner core develops, then the rate of intensification could increase.

Tropical Depression Thirteen will move south of the subtropical high pressure system over the North Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer the depression toward the west-northwest during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Thirteen could approach the northern Leeward Islands on Friday.

TD 11 Strengthens to Tropical Storm Josephine

Former Tropical Depression Eleven strengthened to Tropical Storm Josephine on Thursday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Josephine was located at latitude 13.7°N and longitude 49.2°W which put it about 975 miles (1565 km) east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands.  Josephine was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Satellite imagery indicated that the circulation around former Tropical Depression Eleven exhibited better organization on Thursday morning and the National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Josephine.  Although the circulation around Tropical Storm Josephine was more organized, the distribution of thunderstorms and wind speeds was still asymmetrical.  Many of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northwestern part of Josephine.  Bands in other parts of the tropical storm consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) on the northern side of Tropical Storm Josephine.  The winds in the southern half of the circulation were mostly weaker than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Josephine will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next day or so.  Josephine will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Josephine is forecast to strengthen during the next 24 to 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Josephine will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the North Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Josephine toward the west-northwest during he next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Josephine could be near the northern Leeward Islands on Saturday.

Tropical Depression Eleven Forms over the Atlantic

Tropical Depression Eleven formed over the Atlantic Ocean on Tuesday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was located at latitude 11.7°N and longitude 40.0°W which put it about 1450 miles (2335 km) east of the Lesser Antilles.  The depression was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

More thunderstorms developed closer to the center of a low pressure system over the tropical Atlantic Ocean on Tuesday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Eleven.  The strongest thunderstorms were developing in bands in the western half of the depression.  Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the depression.

Tropical Depression Eleven will move through an environment which will be favorable for intensification.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  Tropical Depression Eleven is currently moving the a region where the easterly winds are stronger in the lower atmosphere than they are at higher elevations.  The difference in wind speed is creating moderate vertical wind shear, which is contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.  The winds in the lower atmosphere are forecast to weaken, which will reduce the vertical wind shear.  When the shear is reduced Tropical Depression Eleven is likely to strengthen into a tropical storm.

Tropical Depression Eleven will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the North Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Tropical Depression Eleven toward the west-northwest during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Eleven could approach the northern Leeward Islands on Saturday.  It will likely be a tropical storm by that time.

Tropical Storm Karen Develops Near Windward Islands

Tropical Storm Karen developed near the Windward Islands on Sunday morning.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located at latitude 11.9°N and longitude 60.9°W which put it about 55 miles (90 km) east-southeast of Grenada.  Karen was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Trinidad and Tobago, Grenada, and for St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

A center of circulation developed in an area of thunderstorms east of the axis of a strong tropical wave near the Windward Islands on Sunday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Karen.  The strongest thunderstorms were forming in bands south and west of the center of circulation.  Bands north and west of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.   Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 125 miles (200 km) on the eastern side of the tropical storm.

An upper level trough northeast of the Lesser Antilles was producing strong westerly winds which were blowing across the northern side of Tropical Storm Karen.  An upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea was producing strong northeasterly winds which were blowing across the western part of Karen.  The upper level winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear which was inhibiting the development of thunderstorms in those parts of Tropical Storm Karen.  The center of circulation developed in a region between the stronger upper level westerly and northeasterly winds.  Most of the thunderstorms were forming in that area where the upper level winds were not as strong.

Tropical Storm Karen will move through an environment that will be only marginally favorable for intensification during the next day or two.  Karen will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature  is near 29°C.  However, the upper level trough and upper level ridge will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.  If Tropical Storm Karen remains in the zone where the upper level winds are not as strong, it could strengthen.  However, if Karen moves under stronger upper level winds, it could weaken to a depression.  Tropical Storm Karen is forecast to move closer to the center of the upper level ridge in two or three days.  If that happens, then the upper level winds will be weaker and Karen could intensify.

Tropical Storm Karen will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Karen toward the west-northwest during the next 12 hours.  Karen will move more toward the north when reaches the end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Karen will move across the Windward Islands on Sunday.  Karen will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain.  Flash floods are likely.  Tropical Storm Karen could approach Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday.  Tropical Storm Watches are likely to be issued for those islands.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean Tropical Storm Jerry was spinning south of Bermuda.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located at latitude 25.0°N and longitude 66.9°W which put it about 520 miles (835 km) south-southwest of Bermuda.  Jerry was moving toward the north-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Imelda Forms Along Upper Texas Coast

Tropical Storm Imelda formed along the Upper Texas coast on Tuesday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Imelda was located at latitude 29.0°N and longitude 95.3°W which put it near Freeport, Texas.  Imelda was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Sargent to Port Bolivar, Texas.

A small low pressure system over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico exhibited greater organization on satellite and radar images on Tuesday.  When a surface weather station reported a sustained wind speed of 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h), the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Imelda.  The winds to tropical storm force were occurring southeast of the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 45 miles (75 km) in the southeastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Imelda.

Tropical Storm Imelda will move around the western end of a warm high pressure system over the southeastern U.S.  The high will steer Imelda slowly toward the north during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Imelda will move slowly inland over east Texas.  Although Imelda will cause a small storm surge along the coast around the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, locally heavy rain will pose a much greater risk.  Southeasterly winds blowing around the eastern side of Tropical Storm Imelda will transport very moist air over parts of eastern Texas.  Over a foot of rain (0.33 meters) could fall in some locations where rain bands linger.  Flash Flood Watches have been issued for a number of counties around Houston and Galveston.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Humberto moved closer to Bermuda and Tropical Depression Ten formed east of the Lesser Antilles.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Humberto was located at latitude 30.8°N and longitude 72.9°W which put it about 490 miles (785 km) west-southwest of Bermuda.  Humberto was moving toward the east-northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 961 mb.

A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning were in effect for Bermuda.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located at latitude 12.9°N and longitude 44.9°W which put it about 1165 miles (1870 km) east-southeast of the Leeward Islands.  It was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.  The depression is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane while it moves toward the northern Leeward Islands.

Stronger Tropical Storm Dorian Causes Warnings for Lesser Antilles

Tropical Storm Dorian strengthened on Sunday and the threat it posed caused warnings and watches to be issued for some of the Lesser Antilles.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Barbados, St. Lucia, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines.  Tropical Storm Watches were issued for Grenada and Martinique.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located at latitude 11.5°N and longitude 54.2°W which put it about 375 miles (605 km) east-southeast of Barbados.  Dorian was moving a little to the north of due west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Dorian exhibited greater organization on Sunday afternoon.  The inner end of a band of showers and thunderstorms wrapped tightly around the northern and western sides of the center of circulation.  The strongest winds were occurring in that band.  Several other bands of showers and storms were revolving around the small core of Dorian.  Storms near the center of circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the north of the tropical storm.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Dorian was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Dorian will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification.  Dorian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28.5°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are relatively weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  A large area of drier air is north of Tropical Storm Dorian.  If the circulation draws drier air into the tropical storm, it would interrupt intensification.  Tropical Storm Dorian is likely to strengthen during the next 24 to 48 hours.  Since Dorian has a small circulation, it could intensify or weaken quickly if the environmental conditions change.

Tropical Storm Dorian will move south of the subtropical high pressure system over the North Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Dorian toward the west-northwest during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Dorian could approach Barbados late on Monday.  It could be a hurricane by that time.  Dorian could reach the southern and central Lesser Antilles on Tuesday.  Tropical Storm Dorian could bring strong winds and heavy rain to those islands.

Tropical Depression Five Strengthens Into Tropical Storm Dorian

Former Tropical Depression Five strengthened into Tropical Storm Dorian east of the Lesser Antilles on Saturday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located at latitude 10.7°N and longitude 49.1°W which put it about 725 miles (1165 km) east southeast of Barbados.  Dorian was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

The circulation around former Tropical Depression Five exhibited greater organization on Saturday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center determined that the system had strengthened to Tropical Storm Dorian.  A band of thunderstorms close to the center of circulation wrapped around the western and southern sides of the center.  The strongest winds were occurring in that band of storms.  Other bands in the western half of the circulation started to revolve around the center of circulation.  Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the west of the tropical storm.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Dorian was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Dorian will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Dorian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move south of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The shear will slow the rate of intensification.  Tropical Storm Dorian will move south of a region of drier air.  If drier air is pulled into the circulation, it will interrupt intensification.  Since Tropical Storm Dorian is so small, it could strengthen or weaken very quickly if the environment changes.  Dorian could strengthen into a hurricane in two or three days.

Tropical Storm Dorian will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Dorian toward the west-northwest during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Dorian could approach the Lesser Antilles on Tuesday.  Dorian could strengthen into a hurricane by that time.  Watches and/or warnings could be issued for parts of the Lesser Antilles on Sunday.