Typhoon Haima Equal to Cat. 5 Hurricane, Threatens Luzon

Typhoon Haima intensified into the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Tuesday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Haima was located at latitude 15.9°N and longitude 128.4°E which put it about 400 miles (640 km) east of northern Luzon.  Haima was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (315 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 919 mb.

Typhoon Haima completed an eyewall replacement cycle and it intensified as the outer eyewall contracted.  Haima is a very well organized, symmetrical typhoon.  Haima has a clear circular eye surrounded by a ring of very strong thunderstorms.  Thunderstorms in the core of Typhoon Haima are generating strong upper level divergence which is pumping away large quantities of mass in all directions.  Winds to typhoon force extend out about 65 miles (105 km) from the center.

Typhoon Haima is moving through a very favorable environment.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is very little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Haima is moving on a track that is a little to the north of the track taken by Typhoon Sarika.  This means that the core of Haima is moving north of cooler water mixed to the surface by Typhoon Sarika.  Typhoon Haima could intensify more during the next 12 to 24 hours.  However, if another eyewall replacement cycle occurs, then there could be fluctuations in intensity.

A subtropical ridge is steering Typhoon Haima toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track the core of Typhoon Haima will approach northern Luzon in about 24 hours.  After Haima moves across Luzon it will reach the western end of the ridge and turn more toward the northwest.  Typhoon Haima could be near the coast of China in 72 hours.

Haima is an extremely dangerous typhoon.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Haima is 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 21.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 56.2.  The indices indicate that Typhoon Haima is capable of causing widespread catastrophic wind damage.  In addition Typhoon Haima will produce very heavy rain over northern Luzon including over some locations hit by Typhoon Sarika a few days ago.  The heavy rain will create the potential for flash floods and mudslides.  Haima will also generate a significant storm surge in locations where the wind pushes the water toward the coast.

Typhoon Sarika Making Landfall on Hainan Island

The center of Typhoon Sarika is making landfall on Hainan Island near Qionghai and Wanning.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Sarika was located at latitude 19.1°N and longitude 110.4°E which put it near Qionghai, China.  Sarika was moving toward the west-northwest at 11 m.p.h. (18 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

The structure of Typhoon Sarika changed after it moved across the Philippines.  It developed a larger eye and more of the thunderstorms occurred in a primary rainband that wrapped around the western and southern parts of the circulation.  Sarika maintained that structure as it made landfall on Hainan Island, although were some indications in satellite imagery that they eye was contracting just prior to landfall.

Typhoon Sarika will weaken while the center passes over Hainan Island.  Sarika could be a tropical storm by the time the center emerges over the Gulf of Tongking.  The Sea Surface Temperature in the Gulf of Tongking is near 31°C.  So, evaporation could provide another source of energy and moisture while the center is over water.

Typhoon Sarika is being steered toward the west-northwest by a subtropical ridge and that general motion is expected to continue for another day or so.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Sarika will spend the next few hours moving across Hainan Island.  Sarika could make another landfall over northern Vietnam and southern China in about 24 to 30 hours.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 11.5 for Typhoon Sarika.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 24.7.  These indices indicate that Typhoon Sarika is capable of causing regional, minor wind damage.  Sarika will also bring locally heavy which could cause floods over Hainan Island and parts of northern Vietnam and southern China.

Typhoons Sarika and Haima Churning Over Western North Pacific

Typhoons Sarika and Haima churned across the western North Pacific Ocean on Sunday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Sarika was located at latitude 17.3°N and longitude 113.7°E which put it about 240 miles (390 km) east-southeast of Hainan Island.  Sarika was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (27 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 970 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Haima was located at latitude 13.2°N and longitude 135.9°E which put it about 935 miles (1505 km) east-southeast of Luzon.  Haima was moving toward the west-northwest at 17 m.p.h. (27 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

The circulation of Typhoon Sarika was disrupted somewhat when it crossed northern Luzon.  Thunderstorms around the eye weakened and breaks developed in the eyewall.  More and stronger thunderstorms developed around the center of circulation today and an eye has become more apparent on satellite imagery.  Numerous rainbands are rotating around the rest of the circulation.  Upper level divergence is increasing, which will increase the removal of mass from the core of Typhoon Sarika.

Typhoon Sarika is moving through an environment that is favorable for intensification.  Sarika is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is above 30°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Sarika is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours and it could intensify quickly if the eye finishes reforming.

A subtropical ridge is steering Typhoon Sarika toward the west .  Sarika is nearing the western end of the ridge and the typhoon is expected to turn more toward the northwest.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Sarika could be near Hainan Island in about 24 hours.  After it crosses Hainan Island, Marika could approach the coast of northern Vietnam in about two days.  Typhoon Sarika will bring strong winds and very heavy rain to Hainan.  It will weaken when it moves across Hainan, but Sarika could also bring gusty winds and heavy rain to northern Vietnam and parts of southeastern China.

Typhoon Haima is developing into a very strong and dangerous typhoon.  Haima has a small eye at the center of circulation.  The eye is surrounded by a ring of very strong thunderstorms.  Rainbands are rotating around the core of the circulation.  Thunderstorms in the core of Typhoon Haima are generating upper level divergence which is pumping out mass in all directions.

Typhoon Haima is moving through an environment that is favorable for continued intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is 30°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Haima is likely to continue to intensify and it could reach super typhoon status.

A subtropical ridge is steering Typhoon Haima toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Haima could be near the northern end of Luzon in about three days.  It could be a very powerful typhoon at that time.

Powerful Typhoon Sarika Makes Landfall in Luzon

Powerful Typhoon Sarika made landfall in Luzon near Baler on Saturday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Sarika was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 122.3°E which put it near Baler, Philippines and about 130 miles (210 km) east-northeast of Manila.  Sarika was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 941 mb.

Sarika is a powerful, well organized typhoon.  It has a circular eye surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms.  Additional rainbands are rotating around the core of Sarika.  The core of Typhoon Sarika is generating well developed upper level divergence which is pumping out mass in all directions.  Typhoon Sarika was intensifying rapidly until it made landfall.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Sarika is 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 17.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 37.6.  These indices indicate that Typhoon Sarika is capable of causing regional major wind damage.  Typhoon Sarika will also generate a storm surge along the coast of Luzon north of the eye where the wind will push water toward the coast.  Sarika will also produce heavy rain over northern Luzon which will create a risk of flash flooding and mudslides.

A subtropical ridge is steering Typhoon Marika toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track across Luzon the center of Typhoon Sarika will pass near San Jose City,  Baguio and Dagupan.  The center of Sarika could emerge over the South China Sea near the Lingayen Gulf.  The core of Typhoon Sarika will move across the Sierra Madre Mountains and the Cordillera Central.  Where winds blow up the slopes of the mountains, rising motion will be stronger and the rainfall will be heavier.  The mountains will also disrupt the airflow in the lower part of Sarika’s circulation and the typhoon will weaken.

It could take the center of Typhoon Sarika about 12 hours to move across Luzon.  The environment of the Sea China Sea will  be favorable for intensification.  The Sea Surface Temperature is warm and there will be little vertical wind shear.  If the core of the circulation remains reasonably intact, then Typhoon Sarika could intensify again while it moves across the South China Sea.  Sarika could eventually move near Hainan Island and into northern Vietnam in a few days.

Typhoon Sarika Near Catanduanes Island, Threatens Luzon

The center of Typhoon Sarika is located near Catanduanes Island and Sarika poses a serious threat to Luzon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Sarika was located at latitude 14.4°N and longitude 124.8°E which put it about 280 miles (455 km) east of Manila, Philippines.  Sarika was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

The circulation of Typhoon Sarika is well organized.  An eye has appeared at times on conventional and microwave satellite imagery.  A primary rainband wrapped around the eye and strong thunderstorms are occurring in the eyewall.  Additional, well formed rainbands are rotating around the core of the circulation.  The convection around the core is generating well developed upper level divergence which is pumping away mass.

Typhoon Sarika is moving through a very favorable environment.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Sarika will continue to intensify as long as the center stays over the water and it could intensify rapidly now that the circulation is well organized.

A subtropical ridge north of Sarika is steering the typhoon toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Sarika will remain north of Catanduanes Island.  It will pass just to the north of Daet and Labo on Saturday.  The center of Typhoon Sarika could be near or just to the north of the Polillo Islands in 12-16 hours.  Sarika could make a landfall near Baler on Luzon in 18-24 hours.

Sarika is a well organized intensifying typhoon.  It could bring strong winds to portions of northern Luzon.  Typhoon Sarika will also bring very heavy rain and create the potential for flash floods and mudslides.  Sarika will generate a storm surge in places where the wind blows the water toward the coast.

Tropical Storm Sarika Forms East of the Philippines

Tropical Storm Sarika formed east of the Philippines on Thursday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Sarika was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 127.0°W which put it about 425 miles (685 km) east of Manila, Philippines.  Sarika was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (18 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Sarika is still organizing.  Most of the thunderstorms are occurring in a broad rainband that curls around the western and southern sides of the circulation.  There are a few thunderstorms in thinner rainbands in the eastern half of the circulation.  More thunderstorms are developing closer to the center of circulation.  Those thunderstorms are beginning to produce upper level divergence which is pumping out mass.  As the mass is removed, the pressure decreases and the wind speeds increase.

Tropical Storm Sarika is moving through an environment that is generally favorable for intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge to the north of Sarika is producing easterly winds which are blowing across the top of the tropical storm.  The vertical wind shear may account for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms, but it is not strong enough to prevent Sarika from intensifying.  The vertical wind shear could slow the rate of intensification while the core of the circulation becomes better organized.  Sarika could strengthen into a typhoon with the next 24 to 36 hours.

A subtropical ridge north of Sarika is steering the tropical storm toward the west and that general motion is expected to continue for another 12 to 24 hours.  In a day or so Tropical Storm Sarika is forecast to turn more toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Sarika could be near Catanduanes Island in about 24 hours.  Sarika could be near Central Luzon in about 48 hours.

Tropical Storm Sarika is expected to intensify into a typhoon.  It could bring strong winds and very heavy rain to parts of the northern Philippines.  The heavy rain could cause flash floods and mudslides.

Hurricane Nicole Bringing Strong Winds and Heavy Rain to Bermuda

Hurricane Nicole is bringing strong winds and heavy rain to Bermuda on Thursday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Nicole was located at latitude 32.3°N and longitude 64.6°W which put it about 10 miles (15 km) east of Bermuda.  Nicole was moving toward the northeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 961 mb.  A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Bermuda.

Nicole is a large powerful hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force extend out about 65 miles (105 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 180 miles (290 km) from the center.  The diameter of the eye is approximately 35 miles (55 km).

A weather station on Pearl Island reported sustained winds to 87 m.p.h. (141 km/h) with wind gusts to 119 m.p.h. (191 km/h).  An elevated weather station at Commissioner’s Point reported sustained winds to 92 m.p.h. (148 km/h) and wind gusts to 122 m.p.h. (196 km/h).

Hurricane Nicole is moving toward the northeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  So, it will take approximately two hours for the eye of Hurricane Nicole to move across Bermuda.  After the eye passes, hurricane force winds in the southern half of Nicole will affect Bermuda.  The winds should gradually diminish later today when Hurricane Nicole moves northeast of Bermuda.

Powerful Major Hurricane Nicole Nearing Bermuda

Hurricane Nicole intensified into a powerful major hurricane late on Thursday as it moved closer to Bermuda.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Nicole was located at latitude 30.1°N and longitude 66.4°W which put it about 180 miles (290 km) south-southwest of Bermuda.  Nicole was moving toward the north-northeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 950 mb.  Nicole is a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Bermuda.

Hurricane Nicole intensified very rapidly during the past 12 hours.  The maximum sustained wind speed increased from 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) to 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h) during that time period.  The minimum surface pressure decreased from 970 mb to 950 mb at the same time.  Hurricane Nicole now has a large circular eye with a diameter of 35 m.p.h. (55 km).  Hurricane Nicole also increased in size as it intensified.  Winds to hurricane force now extend out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of circulation.  Wind to tropical storm force extend out 160 miles (260 km) from the center.

Nicole is a large powerful hurricane. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) is 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 20.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 45.7.  The indices indicate that Hurricane Nicole is capable of causing widespread significant wind damage.

Southwesterly winds on the eastern side of a upper level trough will steer Hurricane Nicole toward the northeast.  When Nicole moves further north, westerly winds will steer it more toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track the core of Hurricane Nicole will reach Bermuda on Thursday morning.  Nicole has the potential to be a very destructive hurricane.

Nicole Strengthens Into a Hurricane, Warning for Bermuda

Tropical Storm Nicole intensified into a hurricane on Tuesday afternoon and a Hurricane Warning was issued for Bermuda.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Nicole was located at latitude 27.4°N and longitude 66.4°W which put it about 350 miles (565 km) south-southwest of Bermuda.  Nicole was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (155 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

The organization of the circulation of Hurricane Nicole improved rapidly on Tuesday afternoon.  The primary rainband wrapped around the center of circulation and an eye developed.  The eye currently has a diameter of about 30 miles (48 km).  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounds the eye.  Those thunderstorms are producing well developed upper level divergence which is pumping out mass in all directions.  Additional rainbands are developing in the rest of the circulation.  Nicole is a relatively small hurricane.  Hurricane force winds only extend out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds on extend out about 120 miles (195 km) from the center.

The environment around Hurricane Nicole became much more favorable on Tuesday afternoon.  The winds in the upper level weakened and the vertical wind shear diminished.  The weaker upper level winds also allowed the upper level divergence to pump out more mass and the pressure decreased 10 mb in six hours on Tuesday afternoon.  Less vertical wind shear allowed Hurricane Nicole to extract energy more efficiently from the ocean.  Hurricane Nicole is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28.5°C.  Nicole is likely to intensify for another 36 to 48 hours.  So, Hurricane Nicole will continue to intensify and it could intensify rapidly.  Nicole could be a major hurricane by the time it nears Bermuda.

Nicole is moving around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system which is steering the hurricane toward the northwest.  When Hurricane Nicole reaches the western end of the high, it will turn more toward the north.  As Hurricane Nicole moves farther north, the westerly winds in the middle latitudes will turn it toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Nicole could approach Bermuda on Thursday morning.  It could be a major hurricane at that time.

Tropical Storm Nicole Prompts Hurricane Watch for Bermuda

While water rescues continued in parts of North Carolina and recovery efforts accelerated after the passage of Hurricane Matthew, Tropical Storm Nicole prompted the issuance of a Hurricane Watch for Bermuda.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was located at latitude 26.3°N and longitude 65.4°W which put it about 415 miles (670 km) south of Bermuda.  Nicole was moving toward the north at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

After becoming a hurricane last Thursday Nicole weakened back to a tropical storm during the weekend.  A combination of intermittent vertical wind shear and drier air caused the structure of Tropical Storm Nicole to deteriorate.  The eye disappeared and the thunderstorms in the rainbands weakened.  There appears to be a remnant of the eyewall, but it only consists of lower clouds and showers.  Several rainbands exist around the circulation, although they are not as strong as they were a few days ago.  Thunderstorms southeast of the center of circulation seem to have increased on Monday afternoon.  The new thunderstorms are generating some upper level divergence but it is not currently well developed.

Tropical Storm Nicole is an environment that is marginal for intensification.  An upper level trough north of Nicole is generating some vertical wind shear.  In addition cooler, drier air has moved close to the western part of the circulation of Tropical Storm Nicole.  On the other hand, Tropical Storm Nicole is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  So, there is plenty of energy in the upper ocean.  The vertical wind shear and drier air could prevent Tropical Storm Nicole from intensifying much on Tuesday.  The upper level trough will move off to the east and the vertical wind shear could decrease during the middle of the week.  If the shear diminishes and not much drier air gets pulled into the circulation, then Tropical Storm Nicole has a chance to intensify into a hurricane.

A high pressure system blocked the northward movement of Tropical Storm Nicole and the high even pushed Nicole toward the south at times during the weekend.  The high appears to be moving farther to the east, which is allowing Tropical Storm Nicole to move slowly toward the north.  As the high pressure system shifts to the east, it will start to steer Tropical Storm Nicole more toward the northwest.  When Nicole reaches the western end of the high, it will turn toward the northeast.  The westerly winds in the middle latitudes will accelerate Nicole toward the northeast later this week.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Nicole could pass near Bermuda on Thursday.