Tag Archives: Honshu

Typhoon Bualoi Strengthens to Equivalent of Major Hurricane over Marianas

Typhoon Bualoi strengthened to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the Marianas on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Bualoi was located at latitude 16.7°N and longitude 145.5°E which put it about 660 miles (1060 km) south-southeast of Iwo To.  Bualoi was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

Typhoon Bualoi continued to intensify quickly on Monday.  There was a small eye at the center of Bualoi.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Bualoi.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon in all directions.

The circulation around Typhoon Bualoi was small.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Bualoi was 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.0 and the Hurricane Wind intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 35.1.  Typhoon Bualoi was capable of causing localized major damage.  The core of Bualoi where the strongest winds were occurring passed north of Saipan.

Typhoon Bualoi will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong typhoon for another 24 to 36 hours.  Bualoi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Bualoi could strengthen during the next 24 hours.  If an inner rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause the typhoon to start to weaken.

Typhoon Bualoi will move around the western end of high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Bualoi toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  The typhoon will move more toward the north when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Bualoi will move away from the Northern Marianas.  Conditions should improve when Bualoi gets farther away.  Typhoon Bualoi could be near Iwo To in about 60 hours.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Neoguri was moving south of Honshu.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Neoguri was located at latitude 32.4°N and longitude 137.6°E which put it about 285 miles (460 km) southwest of Tokyo, Japan.  Neoguri was moving toward the east-northeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.  The center of Tropical Storm Neoguri is likely to pass south of Tokyo during in about 12 hours.

Typhoon Bualoi Strengthens as it Approaches the Marianas

Typhoon Bualoi strengthened as it approached the Marianas on Sunday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Bualoi was located at latitude 14.5°N and longitude 147.8°E which put it about 175 miles (285 km) east-southeast of Saipan.  Bualoi was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

Typhoon Warnings were in effect for Tinian and Saipan.  A Typhoon Watch was in effect for Rota.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Alamagan, Pagan and Agrihan.

Typhoon Bualoi strengthened quickly on Sunday.  A small circular eye developed at the center of Bualoi.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the typhoon.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from Bualoi in all directions.

The circulation around Typhoon Bualoi was relatively small.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (215 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Bualoi was 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 26.3.  Bualoi was capable of causing localized serious damage.

Typhoon Bualoi will move through an environment favorable for intensification for another 36 to 48 hours.  Bualoi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Bualoi will continue to intensify and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 12 to 24 hours.

Typhoon Bualoi will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific.  The high will steer Bualoi toward the northwest during the next 48 hours.  The typhoon will move more toward the north when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Bualoi could pass near Saipan in about 12 hours.  If the center passes near or over Saipan, then there will be winds of typhoon force.  However, since the circulation around Bualoi is fairly small, if the typhoon passes north of Saipan, it will receive much weaker winds.  Typhoon Bualoi could be near Iwo To in less than three days.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Neoguri was moving toward Honshu.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Neoguri was located at latitude 29.5°N and longitude 133.6°E which put it about 600 miles (965 km) southwest of Tokyo, Japan.  Neoguri was moving toward the north-northeast at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.  Tropical Storm Neoguri could pass close to the coast of Honshu near Tokyo in about 24 hours.

Neoguri Strengthens to Typhoon South of Okinawa, Bualoi Prompts Watches for Marianas

Former Tropical Storm Neoguri strengthened into a typhoon south of Okinawa on Saturday and Tropical Storm Bualoi prompted watches for the Marianas.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Neoguri was located at latitude 23.9°N and longitude 128.1°E which put it about 200 miles (320 km) south of Okinawa.  Neoguri was moving toward the north-northeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 965 mb.

Typhoon Neoguri strengthened rapidly on Saturday.  An eye formed at the center of circulation and a ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye.  The strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Neoguri.  There were more bands of thunderstorms in the northern half of the typhoon.  The circulation around Typhoon Neoguri was small.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center.

Typhoon Neoguri will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next several days.  Neoguri will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  So, there will be enough energy in the ocean to support intensification.  However, an upper level trough over China will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Typhoon Neoguri.  Those winds will produce moderate vertical wind shear and the shear will be strong enough to cause Neoguri to weaken.  Since the circulation around the typhoon is small, it could weaken more rapidly if the upper level winds get stronger.

The upper level trough over China will steer Typhoon Neoguri toward the northeast during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Neoguri will pass east of the Ryukyu Islands including Okinawa during the next 36 hours.  It could approach Honshu in about 48 hours.  Typhoon Neoguri will likely be a tropical storm by the time it approaches Honshu.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, former Tropical Depression 22W rapidly strengthened into Tropical Storm Bualoi.  Bualoi had almost strengthened into a typhoon by Saturday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Bualoi was located at latitude 11.8°N and longitude 150.8°E which put it about 455 miles (730 km) east of Guam.  Bualoi was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Typhoon Watches were in effect for Rota, Tinian and Saipan.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Guam.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Bualoi organized quickly on Saturday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of circulation.  Microwave satellite images indicated that an eye could be forming.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Bualoi.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Bualoi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Bualoi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Bualoi will strengthen into a typhoon on Sunday and it could eventually intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Storm Bualoi will move south of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Bualoi toward the west-northwest during the next day or two.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Bualoi could reach the Marianas in 36 hours.  Bualoi will very likely be a typhoon when it reaches the Marianas.  The center of Bualoi could pass near Tinian and Saipan.  It could be near Iwo To in about four days.

Typhoon Hagibis Brings Wind and Rain to Honshu

Typhoon Hagibis brought wind and rain to Honshu on Saturday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Hagibis was located at latitude 36.6°N and longitude 140.8°E which put it about 50 miles south of Iwaki, Japan.  Hagibis was moving toward the north-northeast at 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

The center of Typhoon Hagibis made landfall on the coast of Honshu on the Izu Peninsula southeast of Tokyo on Saturday.  The center of Hagibis moved quickly across the Tokyo metropolitan area toward Mito, Japan.  Typhoon Hagibis brought strong winds to coastal areas of Honshu.  A weather station at Tokyo International Airport in Haneda measured a sustained wind speed of 77 m.p.h. (124 km/h).  Rainbands on the northern side of Hagibis dropped heavy rain over the Tokyo metropolitan area.  Rainfall rates at some weather stations approached an inch (0.3 meters) per hour.  Flash floods occurred as the water from heavy rain ran off.  The rain also caused landslides on some steeper slopes.  Conditions will improve around Honshu as Typhoon Hagibis moves quickly away from Japan.  The heavy rain will end soon and the wind speed will gradually decrease.

Typhoon Hagibis Aims at Tokyo

Typhoon Hagibis was aimed at Tokyo on Friday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Hagibis was located at latitude 31.5°N and longitude 137.4°E which put it about 345 miles (555 km) south-southwest of Tokyo, Japan.  Hagibis was moving toward the north at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

Typhoon Hagibis was weakening slowly as it shifted onto a course toward Tokyo.  An eye was no longer visible on satellites images.  The ring of strong thunderstorms around the center of Hagibis was weaker in the southern half of the ring.  Most of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern half of Typhoon Hagibis.  Bands in the southern half of Hagibis consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  An upper level trough over eastern Asia was producing southwesterly winds which were causing moderate vertical wind shear.   In addition, Typhoon Hagibis appeared to be pulling drier air into the southern half of the circulation.  The combination of wind shear and drier seemed to have weakened the southern half of the typhoon.

Even though it had weakened, Typhoon Hagibis remained a dangerous typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 190 miles (305 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hagibis was 22.1  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 21.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 43.6.  Typhoon Hagibis was capable of causing major damage.

The upper level trough over eastern Asia will steer Typhoon Hagibis toward the northeast during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Hagibis could approach the coast of Honshu southeast of Tokyo in 12 to 18 hours.  Hagibis will continue to weaken as it moves toward Tokyo, but it will still be a typhoon when it reaches the region around Tokyo  Typhoon Hagibis will bring damaging winds to the Tokyo metropolitan area.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms on the northern side of Hagibis are already dropping rain over portions of Honshu southeast of Tokyo.  The rain will continue for another 12 to 24 hours in many locations.  Locally heavy rain will cause flash floods in some parts of Honshu.

Large Typhoon Hagibis Threatens Honshu

Large Typhoon Hagibis threatened Honshu on Thursday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Hagibis was located at latitude 27.9°N and longitude 137.8°E which put it about 555 miles (895 km) south-southwest of Tokyo, Japan.  Hagibis was moving toward the north-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 933 mb.

Powerful Typhoon Hagibis weakened slowly on Thursday.  There was still a circular eye at the center of Hagibis and the eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms.  The strongest winds were in the ring of thunderstorms, but the wind speed decreased slowly during Thursday.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Hagibis.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon.

Although the circulation around Typhoon Hagibis weakened slowly on Thursday, it remained a large typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 345 miles (545 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Hagibis was 28.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 28.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 56.9,  Hagibis was capable of causing widespread significant damage.

Typhoon Hagibis will continue to weaken slowly on Friday.  Hagibis will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  An upper level trough over eastern Asia will move toward Typhoon Hagibis.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Hagibis.  The wind shear caused by those winds will create increasing vertical wind shear.  Increased wind shear will cause Typhoon Hagibis to weaken a little more quickly in 12 to 24 hours.

Typhoon Hagibis will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean on Friday.  The high will steer Hagibis toward the north during the next 12 to 24 hours.  The upper level trough over eastern Asia will steer Typhoon Hagibis toward the northeast in about 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Hagibis could reach the coast of Honshu near Tokyo in less than 36 hours.  Hagibis will still be a typhoon when it reaches Tokyo.  It will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the part of Honshu around Tokyo.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Powerful Typhoon Hagibis Continues Toward Honshu

Powerful Typhoon Hagibis continue to move toward Honshu on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Hagibis was located at latitude 23.7°N and longitude 139.5°E which put it about 140 miles (225 km) west-southwest of Iwo To.  Hagibis was moving toward the north at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (315 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 918 mb.

Typhoon Hagibis continued to have a powerful, large circulation on Wednesday.  A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) was at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Hagibis.  The rainbands in the northwestern quadrant of Hagibis were a little weaker than the bands in other parts of the typhoon.  Some drier air may have been being pulled into the the northwestern quadrant of the circulation.  Storms around the core of the typhoon continue to generate strong upper level divergence.

The strength of the winds around Typhoon Hagibis exhibited more asymmetry on Wednesday.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation in the northeastern part of Hagibis.  Winds to typhoon force were occurring within 100 miles (160 km) of the center in the other parts of Typhoon Hagibis.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 370 miles (565 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Hagibis was 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 39.9 and he Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 74.9.  Typhoon Hagibis was capable of causing extensive catastrophic damage.

Typhoon Habigis will continue to move through an environment capable of supporting strong  typhoons, but Hagibis is likely to start to weaken on Thursday.  Typhoon Hagibis will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C, but that is slightly cooler than the water Hagibis has been over.  Typhoon Hagibis will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak during the next 24 hours.  There will be little vertical wind shear on Thursday, and so Hagibis will likely weaken slowly.  Typhoon Hagibis will move closer to upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes on Friday.  When Hagibis gets closer to the stronger upper level winds, vertical wind shear will increase and the typhoon will weaken more quickly.  The large circulation around Typhoon Hagibis will slow the rate of weakening even when the wind shear increases.

Typhoon Hagibis will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean during the next 24 hours.  The high will steer Hagibis toward the north on Thursday.  Typhoon Hagibis will move toward the northeast on Friday when it reaches the upper level westerly winds.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Hagibis will move west of Iwo To during the next 24 hours.  Hagibis will bring winds to tropical storm force to Iwo To and there is a chance that the winds could reach typhoon force at times.  Rainbands on the eastern side of the typhoon will drop heavy rain on Iwo To.  Typhoon Hagibis could approach the coast of Honshu near Tokyo in a little over 48 hours.  Hagibis will still be a typhoon when it approaches Tokyo.  It will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of Honshu.  Typhoon Hagibis could also produce winds to tropical storm force on Shikoku.

Large Powerful Typhoon Hagibis Turns Toward Japan

Large powerful Typhoon Hagibis turned toward Japan on Tuesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Hagibis was located at latitude 20.2°N and longitude 140.1°E which put it about 350 miles (565 km) south of Iwo To.  Hagibis was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (315 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 915 mb.

Typhoon Hagibis appeared to complete an eyewall replacement cycle on Tuesday.  The original tiny pinhole eye was no longer visible on satellite imagery.  A larger circular eye with a diameter of 24 miles (39 km) was at the center of Hagibis.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Hagibis.  Storms around the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon in all directions.

Completion of the eyewall replacement cycle increased the size of the circulation around Typhoon Hagibis.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 350 miles (565 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Hagibis was 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 38.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 73.1.  Hagibis was capable of causing extensive catastrophic damage.

Typhoon Hagibis will move through an environment capable of supporting intense typhoons during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Hagibis will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Hagibis will move closer to the upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes in two or three days.  Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear and Hagibis will weaken when the shear increases.

Typhoon Hagibis will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Hagibis toward the north-northwest during the next 48 hours.  The upper level westerly winds will steer Typhoon Hagibis quickly toward the northeast later this week.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Hagibis could approach the coast of Honshu near Tokyo in 72 to 84 hours.  Hagibis could bring strong winds and heavy rain to Tokyo.  The large circulation around Typhoon Hagibis will mean that much of central Honshu could experience gusty winds and winds to tropical storm force could affect parts of Kyushu and Shikoku.

Tropical Storm Mitag Brings Wind and Rain to South Korea

Tropical Storm Mitag brought wind and rain to South Korea on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Mitag was located at latitude 36.1°N and longitude 128.5°E which put it about 20 miles (30 km) north-northeast of Taegu, South Korea.  Mitag was moving toward the northeast at 21 m.p.h. (34 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Storm Mitag moved quickly across South Korea on Wednesday.  An upper level trough over eastern Asia was producing strong southwesterly winds which steered Mitag quickly toward the northeast.  Those winds were also causing strong vertical wind shear, which was blowing the upper part of Tropical Storm Mitag northeast of the lower level circulation.  The vertical wind shear and the tilting of the circulation toward the northeast were contributing to the transition of Mitag to an extratropical cyclone.  The strongest winds were occurring in the eastern portion of the tropical storm over the Korea Strait and Sea of Japan.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 155 miles (250 km) on that side of Tropical Storm Mitag.

Tropical Storm Mitag was dropping heavy rain over parts of South Korea.  The rain could cause flash floods in some locations.  Rain will taper off when Tropical Storm Mitag moves away from South Korea on Thursday.  Mitag will start to move more toward the east when it makes the transition to an extratropical cyclone.  On its anticipated track the extratropical storm will move quickly across the Sea of Japan and it could reach northern Honshu in about 24 hours.  It could drop locally heavy rain on parts of northern Honshu and cause flash floods in some locations.

Tapah Strengthens to a Typhoon Southwest of Japan

Former Tropical Storm Tapah strengthened into a typhoon southwest of Japan on Saturday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Tapah was located at latitude 29.2°N and longitude 125.9°E which put it about 380 miles (610 km) southwest of Nagasaki, Japan.  Tapah was moving toward the north at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

The circulation around Typhoon Tapah was very large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 250 miles (400 km) from the center of circulation.  There was a large eye with a diameter of 60 miles (95 km) at the center of Typhoon Tapah.  The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the large eye of Tapah.  It appeared on satellite imagery as if some drier air might be wrapping around the southeastern side of the circulation.

Typhoon Tapah will move through an environment that could allow it to maintain its current intensity for another 12 to 24 hours.  Tapah will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  An upper level trough over eastern Asia will produce southwesterly winds which will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear may not be strong enough to weaken Tapah today.  Typhoon Tapah will move under stronger upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes on Sunday and the increase in wind shear will weaken the typhoon.  Stronger wind shear and cooler Sea Surface Temperatures will cause Typhoon Tapah to begin a transition into an extratropical cyclone on Sunday.

Typhoon Tapah will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean during the next 12 to 18 hours.  The ridge will steer Tapah toward the north during that time period.  The stronger westerly winds in the middle latitudes will turn Tapah toward the northeast on Sunday.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Tapah will be west of Kyushu in about 12 to 18 hours.  The center of Tapah could pass between South Korea and Japan on Sunday and then it will move over the Sea of Japan.  Because it has such a large circulation Typhoon Tapah could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Kyushu, Honshu and South Korea.