Tag Archives: Japan

Soudelor Almost a Typhoon as It Nears the Marianas

Tropical Storm Soudelor intensified on Saturday and it has almost reached typhoon status.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Soudelor was located at latitude 14.8°N and longitude 147.7°E which put it about 170 miles (275 km) east-southeast of Saipan.  Soudelor was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (115 km/h) and there were gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.  A Typhoon Warning has been issued for Saipan and Tinian.  A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Rota.  A Typhoon Watch has been issued for Agrihan, Pagan and Alamagan.

The structure of Tropical Storm Soudelor improved on Saturday.  A long spiral band wrapped almost entirely around the center of circulation and numerous other spiral bands were apparent on satellite imagery.  There are more thunderstorms on the western side of the circulation.  Soudelor is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge north of the tropical storm is causing light easterly winds over the circulation.  However, the vertical wind shear is modest and upper level divergence is increasing.  Soudelor is in a favorable environment.  Further intensification is likely and rapid intensification is possible.  Soudelor will very likely be a typhoon when it moves through Marianas.

A subtropical ridge is steering Soudelor toward the west-northwest and that pattern is expected to continue during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Soudelor will be near Saipan and Tinian in about 12 hours.  It could bring strong winds to those locations and other nearby islands.

Typhoon Halola Nearing Ryukyu Islands

Typhoon Halola turned northwestward on Friday and it is nearing the Ryukyu Islands.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Halola was located at latitude 25.8°N and longitude 130.2°E which put it about 185 miles (300 km) east-southeast of Okinawa and about 50 miles (80 km) west-southwest of Minamidiato Island.  Halola was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. 145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

Halala weakened on Friday, but it was still a typhoon at the time of this post.  It has a well defined low level circulation, but there are fewer thunderstorms in northwestern portion of Halola.  It appears as if some drier air is moving into the northwestern side of the typhoon.  Upper level winds from the northeast are creating some vertical wind shear, but Halola has well developed upper level divergence to the south of the center.  Halola will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 28°C as it passes just north of Okinawa and it could stay at typhoon intensity for another 12 to 24 hours.  After that time it will move over cooler SSTs and the upper level winds will increase.  Halola is likely to weaken to a tropical storm over the weekend.

Typhoon Halola is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge, which is why it has turned toward the northwest.  It will turn northward on Saturday and then turn northeastward in about 36 hours as strong upper level winds from the southwest begin to push it in that direction.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Halola could pass between Okinawa and Amami in to 18 hours.  It is likely to bring wind and heavy rain to some of the Ryukyu Islands.  The center of Halola could be near or just west of Kyushu in about 36 hours.

Typhoon Halola Heading Toward Okinawa

Typhoon Halola moved steadily toward the west-northwest on Wednesday and it moved to within 550 miles of Okinawa.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Halola was located at latitude 24.4°N and longitude 135.4°E which put it about 525 miles (850 km) east-southeast of Okinawa.  Halola was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

The organization of Typhoon Halola improved on Wednesday.  There is an inner eye and a primary rainband may be wrapping around the center as well.  The circulation is more symmetrical and more thunderstorms formed on the western side of the typhoon.  There is well developed upper level divergence over the southeastern half of Halola.  Upper level winds from the northeast are inhibiting some of the upper level divergence over the northwestern part of Halola.  Since the typhoon is still over warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs), it has the potential to intensify further during the next several days.  If the primary rainband wraps entirely around the circulation and creates concentric eyewalls, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause fluctuations in intensity.

A subtropical ridge is steering Halola toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for another two days.  After about 48 hours Halola will reach the western end of the ridge and turn toward the north.  Halola could threaten southwestern Japan or South Korea over the weekend.  On its anticipated track Halola will approach Okinawa in about 48 hours.  It could be a significant typhoon at that time and bring strong winds and heavy rain to the islands around Okinawa.

Halola Becomes a Typhoon South of Japan

A tropical cyclone named Halola intensified a few hundred miles south of Japan on Tuesday and it reached typhoon intensity.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Halola was located at latitude 23.1°N and longitude 140.2°E which put it about 840 miles (1360 km) east-southeast of Okinawa.  Halola was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (170 km).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

Typhoon Halola is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 28°C.  The circulation is relatively well organized and an eye has been visible intermittently on satellite imagery.  There are many more thunderstorms in the eastern half of the circulation and there have been breaks in the western side of the eyewall at times.  It could be that there is some drier air to the northwest of the center.  Halola is currently moving through a region where the upper level winds are relatively light and there has not been much vertical wind shear today.  The lack of wind shear has allowed upper level outflow to become well developed to the east and south of the center of circulation.  Halola has the potential to intensify further during the next 48 hours while it is a region of modest vertical wind shear.

A subtropical ridge is steering Halola toward the west and a general west-northwestward movement is expected to continue during the next several days.  In two or three days Halola will reach the western end of the subtropical ridge and it will turn toward the north.  Guidance from numerical models varies on the strength of the subtropical ridge and the timing of the northward turn.  It is possible that Halola could threaten southwestern Japan later this week.

Typhoon Nangka Making Landfall in Japan

Typhoon Nangka has reached the coast of Japan and it is making landfall.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Nangka was located at latitude 33.4°N and longitude 134.3°E which put it about 20 miles (35 km) southeast of Kochi, Japan.  Nangka was moving toward the north at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

Nangka will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Shikoku and Honshu during the next 24 hours.  It will weaken to tropical storm intensity as it moves across those islands.  Nangka is likely to emerge over the Sea of Japan on Friday.  It will be over cooler Sea Surface Temperatures at that time.  In addition, stronger westerly winds in the upper levels will create strong vertical wind shear.  Nangka will weaken further as those westerly winds turn it toward the east.

Typhoon Nangka Moving Toward Japan

Typhoon Nangka has moved steadily northward toward Japan during the past several days.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Nangka was located at latitude 26.0°N and longitude 136.4°E which put it about 580 miles (935 km) south of Kobe, Japan.  Nangka was moving toward the north at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Typhoon Nangka went through several eyewall replacement cycles in recent days which produced fluctuations in its intensity.  It currently has a circular, slightly ragged eye.  The circulation is still fairly symmetrical although the thunderstorms appear to be taller and stronger in the eastern half of the circulation.  There is strong upper level divergence to the east of the circulation.  Nangka remains over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 28°C.  There is little vertical wind shear and the typhoon has the potential for some intensification during the next 24 hours.

A subtropical ridge located east of Nangka is steering it toward the north and that general steering pattern is expected to continue during the next two days.  On its anticipated track Nangka could approach the island of Shikoku in about 48 hours.  The typhoon will move over cooler SSTs when it nears Japan, which will weaken it somewhat.  However, Nagka is a large powerful typhoon.  It has a Hurricane Intensity Index of 17.8 and a Hurricane Size Index of 26.7, which gives it a Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index of 44.5.  At its current size and intensity Nanga is capable of producing widespread serious damage.

Large Powerful Typhoon Chan-hom Heading for Northeastern China

Large and powerful Typhoon Chan-hom passed south of Okinawa and headed for northeastern China on Thursday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Chan-hom was located at latitude 25.9°N and longitude 125.0°E which put it about 155 miles (250 km) west-southwest of Okinawa and about 400 miles (640 km) south-southeast of Shanghai, China.  Chan-hom was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were gusts to 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 933 mb.

Typhoon Chan-hom has a very symmetrical structure with a well formed eye and numerous rainbands.  Hurricane force winds extend out 75 miles (120 km) in all directions from the center.  Upper level divergence is well developed and it is pumping out mass in all directions.  Chan-hom is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  Given the favorable environment, Chan-hom is likely to remain a powerful typhoon as it approaches the coast of northeastern China.

A subtropical ridge is steering Chan-hom toward the northwest and that steering motion is expected to continue on Friday.  On its anticipated track Chan-hom will approach the coast of China in about 24 hours.  It could make landfall south of Shanghai near Taizhou.  Chan-hom is likely to bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of northeastern China when it makes landfall.

Powerful Typhoon Nangka Moving Through Northern Marianas

Powerful Typhoon Nangka is moving through the northern Mariana Islands.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Nangka was located at latitude 17.2°N and longitude 146.5°E which put it about 145 miles (240 km) north-northeast of Saipan and about 45 miles (75 km) southeast of Alamagan.  Nangka was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 170 m.p.h. (275 km/h).  Nangka is the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  The minimum surface pressure was 929 mb.

Nangka has a very symmetrical structure and strong convection surrounds the eye.  It is over warm Sea Surface Temperatures and it could intensify further.  Upper level outflow from the eastern side of large Typhoon Chan-hom which is about 1200 miles (1940 km) west-northwest of Nangka could begin to create wind shear over the western side of Nangka.  Eyewall replacement cycles could also produce fluctuations in intensity.

A subtropical ridge is steering Nangka toward the west-northwest and that steering pattern is expected to continue for another two or three days.  On its anticipated track the core of Nangka will pass close to the islands of Guguan, Alamagan, Pagan and Agrihan.  It could bring very strong winds and heavy rain to those locations on Thursday.

Large Typhoon Chan-hom South-Southeast of Okinawa

Large Typhoon Chan-hom is approaching the far southern islands of Japan.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Chan-hom was located at latitude 22.8°N and longitude 129.2°E which put it about 300 miles (480 km) south-southeast of Okinawa.  Chan-hom was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Typhoon Chan-hom has a very large circulation.  It has a 32 mile (50 km) wide eye and hurricane force winds extend out 40 miles (65 km) in all directions from the center.  The circulation is very symmetrical and upper level divergence is well developed in all directions.  Chan-hom is still over warm Sea Surface Temperatures and there is little wind shear.  Further intensification is possible, although the size of the circulation could limit the rate of intensification.

A subtropical ridge is steering Chan-hom toward the northwest and that steering pattern is expected to continue during the next several days.  On its anticipated track the center of Chan-hom could pass south of Okinawa on Thursday.  Given the large circulation it could bring winds and rain to that island.  The center could come close to Miyako-Jima and that location and other nearby islands could experience typhoon force winds and heavy rain.

Nangka Intensifies Rapidly Into a Strong Typhoon

Typhoon Nangka intensified rapidly into a strong typhoon on Monday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Nanga was located at latitude 13.2°N and longitude 155.0°E which put it about 670 miles (1080 km) east-southeast of Saipan.  Nangka was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (180 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

The circulation of Typhoon Nangka is very well organized with a strong ring of thunderstorms surrounding a circular eye.  The typhoon is over an area where the Sea Surface Temperature is around 28°C to 29°C.  The upper level winds are relatively light and there appear to outflow channels to the northeast and southwest which are transporting mass away from the center of circulation.  The surface pressure is decreasing rapidly and the wind speeds are increasing quickly.  Nangka is in an environment that is very favorable for further intensification and it could become a very powerful typhoon.

A subtropical ridge is steering Nangka toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Nangka could approach the northern Mariana Islands in about 48 to 72 hours.