Tag Archives: Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Chido Passes North of Madagascar

The center of Tropical Cyclone Chido passed just to the north of Madagascar on Friday morning.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido was located at latitude 12.0°S and longitude 49.4°E which put the center about 75 miles (120 km) north of Antsiranana, Madascar.  Chido was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Chido was weakening slowly as it passed just to the north of Madagascar on Friday morning.  A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) was at the center of Chido’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Chido.  Storms near the core of Chido generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was not quite able to balance the stronger inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  The greater inflow of mass in the lower levels caused the surface pressure to increase.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Chodi was very symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Chido’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Chido is 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 15.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 37.1.  Tropical Cyclone Chido is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Delta when Delta made landfall in southwest Louisiana in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move through an environment favorable for a powerful tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Chido will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Chido could maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours if the inflow of mass in the lower levels is balanced by the divergence of mass in the upper levels of the atmosphere.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Chido toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido will reach Mayotte and the Comoros in 24 hours.  Chido could approach the coast of northern Mozambique in 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Chido could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches Mayotte and the Comoros.  Chido will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Mayotte and the Comoros.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Chido could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast of Mayotte and the Comoros.

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Chido Nears Northern Madagascar

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Chido was nearing northern end of Madagascar on Thursday evening.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido was located at latitude 11.0°S and longitude 51.7°E which put the center about 185 miles (295 km) east-northeast of Antsiranana, Madascar.  Chido was moving toward the west-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 939 mb.

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Chido was maintaining its intensity as it approached northern Madagascar on Thursday evening.  A small circular eye with a diameter of 14 miles (22 km) was at the center of Chido’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Chido.  Storms near the core of Chido generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was not quite able to  balance the stronger inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  The greater inflow of mass in the lower levels caused the surface pressure to start to increase.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Chodi was very symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Chido’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Chido is 29.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 12.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 42.1.  Tropical Cyclone Chido is similar in intensity to Hurricane Charley when Charley made landfall in southwest Florida in 2004.  Chido is larger than Charley was.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move through an environment favorable for a powerful tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Chido will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Chido could weaken slowly during the next 24 hours if the inflow of mass in the lower levels continues to exceed the divergence of mass in the upper levels of the atmosphere.  Chido will also weaken of the core of its circulation moves over northern Madagacar.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Chido toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido will pass near the northern end of Madagascar in 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will bring strong winds and heavy rain to northern Madagascar.  Chido is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it hits Madagascar.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Chido could also cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters ) along parts of the coast of northern Madagascar.  Chido could cause major damage if the eyewall moves over the northern end of Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Chido Rapidly Intensifies to Threshold of Cat. 5 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Chido rapidly intensified to the threshold of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the South Indian Ocean east of northern Madagascar during Wednesday night.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido was located at latitude 10.6°S and longitude 54.0°E which put the center about 335 miles (540 km) east of Antsiranana, Madascar.  Chido was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 929 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Chido rapidly intensified to the threshold of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale during Wednesday night.  A small circular eye with a diameter of 14 miles (22 km) was at the center of Chido’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Chido.  Storms near the core of Chido generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Chido increased as Chido rapidly intensified.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Chido’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Chido is 33.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 13.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 46.5.  Tropical Cyclone Chido is similar in intensity to Hurricane Ian when Ian made landfall in southwest Florida in 2022.  Chido is not quite as large as Ian was.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Chido will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Chido could continue to intensify during the next 24 hours.  However, if the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then concentric eyewalls could form.  If concentric eyewalls form, then an eyewall replacement cycle would cause Chido to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Chido toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Chido will move toward northern Madagascar.  The center of Chido will reach northern Madagascar in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will bring strong winds and heavy rain to northern Madagascar.  Chido is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it hits Madagascar.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Chido could also cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters ) along parts of the coast of northern Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Chido Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Chido rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean east of northern Madagascar on Wednesday afternoon.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido was located at latitude 10.4°S and longitude 56.3°E which put the center about 490 miles (790 km) east of Antsiranana, Madascar.  Chido was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 945 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Chido rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Wednesday afternoon.  A small circular eye with a diameter of 7 miles (11 km) was at the center of Chido’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Chido.  Storms near the core of Chido generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Chido was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Chido’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles in from the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Chido is 28.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 7.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 35.3.  Tropical Cyclone Chido is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Charley when Charley made landfall in southwest Florida in 2004.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Chido will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Chido could continue to intensify during the next 24 hours.  However, if the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then concentric eyewalls could form.  If concentric eyewalls form, then an eyewall replacement cycle would cause Chido to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Chido toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Chido will move toward northern Madagascar.  The center of Chido will reach northern Madagascar on Friday.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will bring strong winds and heavy rain to northern Madagascar.  Chido is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it hits Madagascar.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Chido could also cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters ) along parts of the coast of northern Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Chido Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Chido strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean east of northern Madagascar on Wednesday morning.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido was located at latitude 10.5°S and longitude 57.9°E which put the center about 590 miles (950 km) east of Antsiranana, Madascar.  Chido was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Chido intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Wednesday morning.  A small circular eye formed at the center of Chido’s circulation.  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Chido.  Storms near the core of Chido generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Chido was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Chido’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (175 km) in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Chido.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles in the northern half of Chido’s circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Chido is 12.7.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 7.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 20.2.  Tropical Cyclone Chido is similar in intensity to Hurricane Dolly when Dolly made landfall in south Texas in 2008.  Chido is smaller than Dolly was.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Chido will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Chido will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Chido could intensify rapidly at times.  Tropical Cyclone Chido could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Chido toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Chido will move toward northern Madagascar.  The center of Chido will reach northern Madagascar on Friday.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will bring strong winds and heavy rain to northern Madagascar.  Chido could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it hits Madagascar.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Chido could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters ) along parts of the coast of northern Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Chido Intensifies

Tropical Cyclone Chido strengthened over the South Indian Ocean east of northern Madagascar on Monday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido was located at latitude 10.6°S and longitude 59.3°E which put the center about 680 miles (1095 km) east of Antsiranana, Madascar.  Chido was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Chido strengthened over the South Indian Ocean east of northern Madagascar on Tuesday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western side of the center of Chido’s circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido.  Storms near the center of Chido generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Chido became more symmetrical on Tuesday when Chido strengthened.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Chido’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Chido will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Chido’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Chido will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Chido is likely to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Wednesday.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Chido toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Chido will move toward northern Madagascar.  The center of Chido will approach northern Madagascar on Friday.

Tropical Cyclone Chido Forms East of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Chido formed over the South Indian Ocean east of northern Madagascar on Monday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido was located at latitude 10.9°S and longitude 62.1°E which put the center about 870 miles (1405 km) east of Antsiranana, Madascar.  Chido was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean east of northern Madagascar strengthened on Monday and Meteo France la Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Chido.  The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Chido was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western side of Chido’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Chido consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms in the western side of Chido generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Chido was also asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the western side of Chido’s circulation.  The winds in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Chido were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Chido will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Chido’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Chido will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Chido toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Chido will move toward northern Madagascar.  Chido could approach northern Madagascar by the end of this week.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy Spins North of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Ialy continued to spin over the South Indian Ocean north of Madagascar on Saturday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy was located at latitude 7.7°S and longitude 47.7°E which put it about 305 miles (490 km) north-northwest of Antsiranana, Madagascar. Ialy was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

The vertical wind shear decreased during Friday night and Saturday morning, and Tropical Cyclone Ialy intensified a little more. Drier air was pulled around the eastern side of Ialy’s circulation and the distribution of thunderstorms remained asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Ialy. Thunderstorms were also occurring near the center of Ialy’s circulation. Bands in the eastern part of Tropical Cyclone Ialy consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Thunderstorms near the center of Ialy generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move into an environment that will become less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ialy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. However, an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ialy’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. In addition, the drier air in the eastern side of Ialy’s circulation will inhibit formation of thunderstorms in that region. Tropical Cyclone Ialy is likely to start to weaken slowly during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ialy slowly toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Ialy will remain move farther north of Madagascar. Ialy is likely to remain northeast of the Aldabra Islands.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy Moves North of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Ialy moved north of Madagascar on Friday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy was located at latitude 8.7°S and longitude 50.1°E which put it about 225 miles (360 km) north-northeast of Antsiranana, Madagascar. Ialy was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

After strengthening a little on Thursday, Tropical Cyclone Ialy began to move into a less favorable environment on Friday. Ialy moved under the northwestern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level ridge produced northeasterly winds that blew toward the top of Ialy’s circulation. Those winds caused the vertical wind shear to increase. The wind shear also allowed drier air to wrap closer around the northern and eastern sides of the center of Tropical Storm Ialy.

The effects of more vertical wind shear and the drier air was beginning to affect the structure of Tropical Cyclone Ialy. Thunderstorms were still occurring near the center of Ialy’s circulation. Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the southern and western parts of Tropical Cyclone Ialy. Bands in the northern and eastern parts of Ialy’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The northeasterly winds in the upper levels were inhibiting upper level divergence. Less mass was being removed from Tropical Cyclone Ialy and the surface pressure was slowly increasing.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ialy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. However, the upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean will produce moderate vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear will continue to allow drier air to be pulled closer to the center of Ialy’s circulation. Tropical Cyclone Ialy is likely to weaken slowly during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ialy slowly toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Ialy will remain north of Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy Forms Northeast of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Ialy formed over the South Indian Ocean northeast of Madagascar on Thursday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy was located at latitude 9.1°S and longitude 52.4°E which put it about 300 miles (485 km) northeast of Antsiranana, Madagascar. Ialy was moving toward the southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean near northern Madagascar strengthened on Thursday and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Ialy. The flow of air around Tropical Cyclone Ialy appeared to be pulling drier air into the northern part of its circulation. The distribution of thunderstorms around Ialy was asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern part of Tropical Cyclone Ialy. Bands in the northern part of Ialy’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern and western sides of the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy. Storms near the center or circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ialy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, the drier air in the northern part of Ialy’s circulation could inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Ialy is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours unless the drier air gets pulled into the center of its circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ialy slowly toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move north of Madagascar.