Tag Archives: Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Filipo Moves Away from Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Filipo moved away from Mozambique on Wednesday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Filipo was located at latitude 28.9°S and longitude 36.6°E which put it about 245 miles (390 km) southeast of Maputo, Mozambique. Filipo was moving toward the southeast at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Filipo started to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone as it moved away from Mozambique on Wednesday. An upper level trough over southern Africa produced strong northwesterly winds that blew toward the top of Filipo’s circulation. Those winds also caused strong vertical wind shear and the wind shear started the transition to an extratropical cyclone. Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southern part of Tropical Cyclone Filipo. Bands in the northern part of Filipo’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Filipo. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the western side of Filipo.

Tropical Cyclone Filipo will move through an environment unfavorable for a tropical cyclone during the next 36 hours. Filipo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C. However, the upper level trough over southern Africa will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The combination of strong vertical wind shear and cooler water will cause Tropical Cyclone Filipo to complete a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next 36 hours.

The upper level trough over southern Africa will steer Tropical Cyclone Filipo toward the southeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Filipo will pass south of Madagascar in 24 hours. Filipo is likely to be an extratropical cyclone when it passes south of Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Alvaro Moves East of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Alvaro moved east of Madagascar on Tuesday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alvaro was located at latitude 23.1°S and longitude 50.3°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) east of Farafangana, Madagascar. Alvaro was moving toward the east-southeast at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Alvaro weakened to the equivalent of a tropical depression before it moved over the Southwest Indian Ocean east of Madagascar on Tuesday. Alvaro began to intensify slowly after it moved back over water. More thunderstorms began to develop in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Alvaro. Those thunderstorms generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of Alvaro’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Alvaro will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Alvaro will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Alvaro’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be enough to prevent some intensification. Tropical Cyclone Alvaro could continue to slowly intensify on Wednesday.

The upper level ridge over the Mozambique Channel will steer Tropical Cyclone Alvaro toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Alvaro will move farther east of Madagascar. Alvaro will pass south of La Reunion and Mauritius in 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Alvaro Brings Wind and Rain to Southern Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Alvaro brought wind and rain to southern Madagascar on Monday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alvaro was located at latitude 21.5°S and longitude 45.3°E which put it about 40 miles (65 km) north of Fianarantsoa, Madagascar. Alvaro was moving toward the east at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Alvaro made landfall on the coast of southwest Madagascar north of Morombe on Monday. Alvaro was near hurricane/typhoon intensity at the time of landfall. A circular eye was at the center of Alvaro’s circulation at the time of landfall. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center of circulation. Tropical Cyclone Alvaro moved eastward across southern Madagascar and the center was north of Fianarantsoa on Sunday night. Heavy rain was falling over parts of southern Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Alvaro weakened after it moved over southern Madagascar on Monday, but Alvaro’s circulation continued to exhibit organization. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center of Alvaro generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Alvaro.

Tropical Cyclone Alvaro will continue to weaken while the center of circulation moves eastward over southern Madagascar. The center of Alvaro’s circulation could move over the southwest Indian Ocean east of Madagascar in 24 hours. Tropical Cyclone Alvaro will move into an environment somewhat favorable for intensification when it moves back over water. Alvaro will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the southwest Indian Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Alvaro’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be enough to prevent some intensification. Tropical Cyclone Alvaro could intensify when the center moves back over water east of Madagascar.

The upper level ridge over the Mozambique Channel will steer Tropical Cyclone Alvaro toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Alvaro will continue to move eastward across southern Madagascar. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some parts of southern Madagascar. Alvaro will move off the coast of southeast Madagascar between Mananjary and Manakara in about 24 hours. Tropical Cyclone Alvaro could pass south of La Reunion and Mauritius later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Alvaro Forms over the Mozambique Channel

Tropical Cyclone Alvaro formed over the Mozambique Channel on Sunday morning. At 7:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alvaro was located at latitude 20.5°S and longitude 39.1°E which put it about 380 miles (610 km) west-northwest of Toliara, Madagascar. Alvaro was moving toward the east-southeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A low pressure system over the Mozambique Channel intensified on Sunday morning and Meteo France la Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Alvaro. More thunderstorms formed around the center of Alvaro’s circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Thunderstorms were also forming in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Alvaro. Bands in the western side of Alvaro’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the eastern half of Alvaro. The winds in the western side of Tropical Cyclone Alvaro were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Alvaro will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Alvaro will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Mozambique Channel. The upper level ridge will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Alvaro’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Alvaro will intensify during the next 24 hours.

The upper level ridge over the Mozambique Channel will steer Tropical Cyclone Alvaro toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Alvaro will approach the coast of southwest Madagascar near Morombe on Monday. Tropical Cyclone Alvaro will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Freddy rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Mozambique Channel west of Madagascar on Tuesday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 22.8°S and longitude 42.0°E which put it about 110 miles (185 km) west-northwest of Toliara, Madagascar. Freddy was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon west of Madagascar on Tuesday morning. A small circular eye with a diameter of 15 miles (24 km) formed at the center of Freddy’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Storm Freddy. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Freddy became more symmetrical when Freddy intensified rapidly. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Freddy’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Freddy was 16.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 28.3.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Freddy will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will be in an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will intensify during the next 36 hours. Freddy is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane within 36 hours.

A high pressure system south of Madagascar will steer Tropical Cyclone Freddy toward the northwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Freddy will gradually move farther away from Madagascar. Freddy will approach the coast of Mozambique near Pebane by the end of the week. Tropical Cyclone Freddy is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it approaches Mozambique.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Stalls West of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Freddy stalled west of Madagascar on Monday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 23.8°S and longitude 42.6°E which put it about 110 miles (185 km) west-southwest of Toliara, Madagascar. Freddy was moving toward the west at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy gradually strengthened on Monday while it was stalled west of Madagascar. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Freddy’s circulation and an eye appeared to be forming. Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (300 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will be in an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Freddy will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will be in an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will intensify during the next 24 hours. Freddy is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon within 36 hours.

A high pressure system south of Madagascar will start to steer Tropical Cyclone Freddy toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Freddy will gradually move farther away from Madagascar on Tuesday. Freddy could approach the coast of Mozambique by the end of the week. Tropical Cyclone Freddy is likely to be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it approaches Mozambique.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Brings Wind and Rain to Southwest Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Freddy brought wind and rain to southwest Madagascar on Sunday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 23.8°S and longitude 43.0°E which put it about 60 miles (95 km) west-southwest of Toliara, Madagascar. Freddy was moving toward the south-southwest at 4 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy brought wind and rain to southwest Madagascar on Sunday night, when the center of Freddy stalled just off the coast. An upper level trough over southern Africa was producing northwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Freddy’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear was affecting both the vertical and the horizontal structure of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. The wind shear was causing the vertical structure of Freddy to tilt to the southeast with height. So, the center of circulation in the middle troposphere was southeast of the center near the surface. The wind shear was also causing the distribution of thunderstorms to be asymmetric. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Bands in the western side of Freddy’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will be in an area where the steering currents are weak during the next 24 hours. The center of Freddy’s circulation is likely to meander just west of the coast of southwest Madagascar on Monday. Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Freddy will continue to drop heavy rain over southwest Madagascar. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. A high pressure system south of Madagascar will start to push Freddy back toward the northwest in a day or so. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Freddy could approach Mozambique by the end of the week.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will be in an environment only marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Freddy will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. However, the upper level trough over southern Africa will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification during the next 24 hours. The upper level winds will be weaker when Freddy moves northwest later this week. Tropical Cyclone Freddy is forecast to intensify when the wind shear decreases. Freddy could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the middle of the week.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Redevelops over Mozambique Channel

Tropical Cyclone Freddy redeveloped over the Mozambique Channel on Saturday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 22.6°S and longitude 39.8°E which put it about 300 miles (485 km) east of Vilankulo, Mozambique. Freddy was moving toward the east-southeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

After meandering over Mozambique for a week, the circulation of Tropical Cyclone Freddy emerged over the Mozambique Channel. More thunderstorms began to form once Freddy’s circulation moved back over the warm water in the Mozambique Channel. Tropical Cyclone Freddy strengthened back to the equivalent of a tropical storm on Saturday morning. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Freddy. The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Freddy was asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were forming in bands in the eastern and southern parts of Freddy’s circulation. Bands in the northern and western parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move over the southern part of an upper level ridge over southern Africa. The ridge will produce westerly winds that will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent Freddy from getting stronger. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will intensify during the next 36 hours. Freddy could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon by the end of the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the southwest Indian Ocean during the next 36 hours. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the southeast. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move closer to southern Madagascar during the weekend. A second high pressure system south of Madagascar will block Freddy before the center gets to Madagascar. The second high pressure system will push Tropical Cyclone Freddy back toward Mozambique during the early part of next week.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Causes Wind and Rain in Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Freddy caused wind and rain in Madagascar on Tuesday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 21.3°S and longitude 46.0°E which put it about 75 miles (120 km) east of Mandabe, Madagascar. Freddy was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy produced strong winds and locally heavy rain over the central and southern parts of Madagascar on Tuesday night. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Freddy remained well organized, even though Freddy had been over Madagascar for about 12 hours. Thunderstorms in well defined bands caused strong winds and dropped locally heavy rain. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (175 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move toward the west during the next several days. The center of Freddy’s circulation will reach the west coast of Madagascar near Morombe in 12 hours. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will continue to cause strong winds and locally heavy rain over Madagascar on Wednesday. Freddy will continue to weaken while the center of circulation is over land. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move westward across the Mozambique Channel. Freddy could strengthen again once the center is over the Mozambique Channel. Tropical Cyclone Freddy could approach the south coast of Mozambique in 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Hits Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Freddy hit the east coast of Madagascar on Tuesday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 20.9°S and longitude 48.8°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) northeast of Mananjary, Madagascar. Freddy was moving toward the west-southwest at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy hit the east coast of Madagascar between Nosy Varika and Mananjary on Tuesday. A small eye with a diameter of 7 miles (11 km) was at the center of Freddy’s circulation. A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Freddy.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Freddy was very symmetrical. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Freddy’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (175 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Freddy was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 31.5. Tropical Cyclone Freddy was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Sally, when Sally hit the south coast of Alabama in 2020. Freddy was capable of causing regional major damage.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move west-southwest across Madagascar during the next 24 hours. The center of Freddy will pass near Fianarantsoa in a few hours. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will bring strong gusty winds to central and southern Madagascar. Freddy will be capable of causing major wind damage. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will also drop locally heavy rain. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will weaken steadily as it moves across Madagascar. The center of Freddy’s circulation will move over the Mozambique Channel on Wednesday. Tropical Cyclone Freddy could strengthen again when it moves over the Mozambique Channel. Freddy could approach the coast of southern Mozambique later this week.