Tropical Storm Bertha intensified over the northern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was located at latitude 29.3°N and longitude 86.3°W which put the center about 100 miles (160 km) southeast of Pensacola, Florida. Bertha was moving toward the north-northwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Bay County/Gulf County Line in Florida to the Terrebone Parish/Lafourche Parish Line in Louisiana.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for New Orleans. Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Terrebonne Parish/Lafourche Parish Line to the Vermilion Parish/Cameron Parish Line in Louisiana.
Tropical Storm Bertha intensified on Tuesday morning in spite of strong northeasterly winds in the upper troposphere. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear, but the wind shear was not strong enough to prevent intensification The vertical wind shear did affect the structure of Bertha’s circulation. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of Tropical Storm Bertha. Bands in the northern half of Bertha’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Bertha generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and west of the tropical storm. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.
The strongest winds were occurring in the southeastern part of Tropical Storm Bertha. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the southern part of Bertha’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the northern side of Tropical Storm Bertha.
Tropical Storm Bertha will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Bertha will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under southeastern part of an upper level ridge that is centered over the South Central U.S. The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow across the top of Bertha’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Storm Bertha could intensify a little more during the next 24 hours. However,if the northeasterly winds in the upper levels get any stronger, then Bertha will start to weaken.
Tropical Storm Bertha will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the southern Mississippi River Valley. The high pressure system will steer Bertha slowly toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Bertha will move slowly toward southeastern Louisiana.
Tropical Storm Bertha will bring gusty winds to the central Gulf Coast. Since the strongest winds are in the southeastern part of Bertha’s circulation, those winds will remain over the Gulf of Mexico during the next 24 hours. Bands on the northern side of Tropical Storm Bertha could drop locally heavy rain over parts of Northwest Florida, southern Alabama, southern Mississippi, and southern Louisiana. Bertha could also cause a storm surge of up to 4 feet (1 meter) along parts of the coast of southeastern Louisiana.
