Tropical Storm Ana Moves away from Bermuda

Tropical Storm Ana moved away from Bermuda on Sunday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of a Tropical Storm Ana was located at latitude 36.6°N and longitude 59.4°W which put it about 425 miles (690 km) northeast of Bermuda. Ana was moving toward the northeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Former Subtropical Storm Ana exhibited more of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone on Sunday morning and the National Hurricane Center reclassified Ana as a tropical storm. Most of the thunderstorms and the strongest wind speeds were occurring closer to the center of circulation, which are two important characteristics of a tropical cyclone. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in narrow bands southeast of the center of Tropical Storm Ana. The strongest winds were occurring in those bands of thunderstorms. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the southeastern quadrant of Ana. Bands in the other parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The winds in the other quadrants of Tropical Storm Ana were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Ana will move through an environment unfavorable for a tropical storm during the next 36 hours. Ana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 20°C. Some drier air in the middle troposphere will wrap around parts of the circulation and the drier air will inhibit the development of thunderstorms. An upper level trough near the East Coast of the U.S. will move toward Ana. The trough will produce strong southwesterly winds which will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. A combination of more vertical wind shear, dry air and cool Sea Surface Temperatures will cause Ana to weaken.

The upper level trough will steer Tropical Storm Ana toward the northeast. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Ana will continue to move away from Bermuda and Ana is likely to be absorbed by a cold front early next week.

Subtropical Storm Ana Forms Northeast of Bermuda

Subtropical Storm Ana formed northeast of Bermuda on Saturday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of a Subtropical Storm Ana was located at latitude 34.2°N and longitude 64.5°W which put it about 180 miles (290 km) northeast of Bermuda. Ana was moving toward the west-southwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Bermuda.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of a low pressure system northeast of Bermuda on Saturday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Subtropical Storm Ana. Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands southwest and northeast of the center of Ana. Bands in the northwestern and southeastern parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The strongest winds were occurring in the northern half of Subtropical Storm Ana. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) to the north of the center of circulation. Winds in the southern half of Ana were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Subtropical Storm Ana will be in an environment only marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 23°C. It will be near the center of an upper level low. The winds are weak near the center of the low and there will be little vertical wind shear. Some drier air will wrap around parts of the circulation and the drier air will inhibit the development of thunderstorms. Subtropical Storm Ana could get a little stronger on Saturday. An upper level trough near the East Coast of the U.S. will move toward Ana. The trough will produce southwesterly winds which will cause the vertical wind shear to increase on Sunday. More vertical wind shear will cause Ana to start to weaken.

Subtropical Storm Ana is forecast to remain relatively stationary on Saturday while it is near the center of the upper level low. The upper level trough near the East Coast will steer Ana toward the northeast on Sunday. On its anticipated track the center of Subtropical Storm Ana is forecast to remain northeast of Bermuda.

Tropical Storm Watch Issued for Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for Bermuda on Thursday. At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of a nontropical low pressure system designated as Invest 90L was located at latitude 34.9°N and longitude 55.0°W which put it about 635 miles (1010 km) east-northeast of Bermuda. Invest 90L was moving toward the north-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A non-tropical low pressure system east-northeast of Bermuda prompted the Bermuda Weather Service to issue a Tropical Storm Watch. The low pressure system exhibited a non-tropical structure on Thursday night. There were bands of showers and thunderstorms revolving around the center of the low pressure system. However, there were not any thunderstorms near the center of the low. The strongest winds were occurring in the outer part of the circulation around the low. The low pressure system may have also had a cold core in the upper levels.

The surface portion of the low pressure system was rotating counterclockwise around an upper level low. The upper level low was forecast to steer the surface low toward the west on Friday. If the surface low moves westward, it will move over warmer Sea Surface Temperatures. The low pressure system could extract more energy from the Atlantic Ocean and thunderstorms could form near the center of circulation. The structure of the low pressure system could make a transition to a subtropical or a tropical storm. The National Hurricane Center indicated that the probability was 80% that a subtropical or a tropical storm could form during the next 48 hours.

New Normals for Atlantic Hurricane Season

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) announced that new normals have been computed for the Atlantic Hurricane season. CPC will now use normals based on the averages for the thirty year period from 1991-2020. The new normal number of named storms for the Atlantic basin is 14. The new normal for hurricanes is 7 and the normal for major hurricanes is 3.

Climatologists routinely calculate new normals based on the most recent 30 year period at the end of each decade. The previous normals for the Atlantic basin were based on the period from 1981 to 2010. The previous normal for the number of named storms was 12. The previous normal for the number of hurricanes was 6 and the previous normal for the number of major hurricanes was 3. The increases in the number of named storms and hurricanes reflect a more active period that began in 1995.

Major Tropical Cyclone Tauktae Hits Gujarat

Major Tropical Cyclone Tauktae hit the Indian state of Gujarat on Monday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Tauktae was located at latitude 21.2°N and longitude 71.4°E which put it about 25 miles (405 km) west of Mahuva, India. Tauktae was moving toward the north at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 946 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae made landfall on coast of Gujarat near Jafrabad, India on Monday. The core of Tauktae moved inland between Diu and Mahuva. Tropical Cyclone Tauktae was the equivalent of a major hurricane, when it made landfall. A circular eye with a diameter of 23 miles (37 km) was evident on satellite imagery. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tauktae.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Tauktae. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Tauktae was 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 39.9. Tropical Cyclone Tauktae was capable of causing regional major damage.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will move inland toward the north-northeast over Gujarat during the next 24 hours. Tauktae will produce winds capable of causing major damage in the southern part of Gujarat. Strong southerly winds will push water into the Gulf of Khambhat. A storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) could occur at some places along the coast. Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will also drop heavy rain over parts of Gujarat and flash floods could occur. Tauktae will start to move more toward the east later on Tuesday when it reaches the upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Tauktae Nears Gujarat

Severe Tropical Cyclone Tauktae neared the Indian state of Gujarat on Sunday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Tauktae was located at latitude 18.9°N and longitude 71.5°E which put it about 90 miles (145 km) west-southwest of Mumbai, India. Tauktae was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (270 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 938 mb.

The core of Tropical Cyclone Tauktae was passing just to the west of Mumbai, India on Sunday night. The core of Tauktae contracted on Sunday as the tropical cyclone continued to intensify. The diameter of the circular eye at the center of Tropical Cyclone Tauktae shrank to 14 miles (22 km). The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tauktae. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north and east of the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Tauktae was very symmetrical. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (75 km) from the center of Tauktae. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Tauktae was 28.3. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 44.3. Tauktae was capable of causing regional severe damage.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will move through an environment favorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 12 hours. Tauktae will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move the northwestern portion of an upper level ridge over India and the eastern Arabian Sea. The upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Tauktae is likely to maintain its intensity during the next 12 hours unless an eyewall replacement cycle begins. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause Tauktae to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over India. The high will steer the Tauktae toward the north-northwest during the next 12 hours. Rainbands on the eastern side of the tropical cyclone could produce gusty winds, drop locally heavy rain and bring high waves to the west coast of India in Maharastra and Gujarat. Tropical Cyclone Tauktae could approach the coast of Gujarat near Diu in 12 hours. Tauktae is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when the center nears the coast. Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will be capable of producing severe damage in Gujarat. Tauktae could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) on the coast of Gujarat. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae Intensifies to Equivalent of Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the Arabian Sea south of Mumbai, India on Sunday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Tauktae was located at latitude 17.3°N and longitude 72.4°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) south-southwest of Mumbai, India. Tauktae was moving toward the north at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae continued to intensify on Sunday. A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) was at the center of Tauktae. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Tauktae. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north and east of the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Tauktae increase in size on Sunday. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Tauktae. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Tauktae was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 17.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 38.2. Tauktae was capable of causing regional major damage.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Tauktae will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move the northwestern portion of an upper level ridge over India and the eastern Arabian Sea. The upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Tauktae is likely to continue to intensify during the next 18 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over India. The high will steer the Tauktae toward the north-northwest during the next 18 hours. On its anticipated track the core of Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will pass west of Mumbai, India. Rainbands on the eastern side of the tropical cyclone could produce gusty winds, drop locally heavy rain and bring high waves to the west coast of India in Maharastra and Gujarat. Tropical Cyclone Tauktae could approach the coast of Gujarat near Diu in 24 hours. Tauktae is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when the center nears the coast. Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will be capable of producing major damage in Gujarat. Tauktae could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) on the coast of Gujarat. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Arabian Sea south of Mumbai on Saturday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Tauktae was located at latitude 14.9°N and longitude 72.8°E which put it about 300 miles (485 km) south of Mumbai, India. Tauktae was moving toward the north-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae strengthened steadily on Saturday and it intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Tauktae and an eye was visible on the India Meteorological Department’s radar at Goa and on satellite imagery. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Tauktae. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north and east of the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Tauktae. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Tauktae will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move the western portion of an upper level ridge over India and the eastern Arabian Sea. The upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will continue to intensify and it could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane within 36 hours. Since an inner core with an eye and an eyewall has developed, rapid intensification could occur.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will move around the western side of a high pressure system over India. The high will steer the tropical cyclone toward the north-northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track the core of Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will pass west of Mumbai, India. Rainbands on the eastern side of the tropical cyclone could produce gusty winds, drop locally heavy rain and bring high waves to the west coast of India in Karnataka, Goa and Maharastra. Tropical Cyclone Tauktae could approach the coast of Gujarat near Diu in 36 hours. Tauktae could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when the center nears the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Forms over Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 01A formed over the southeastern Arabian Sea on Friday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone 01A was located at latitude 12.4°N and longitude 73.3°E which put it about 450 miles (725 km) south of Mumbai, India, Philippines. The tropical cyclone was moving toward the northeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

An area of low pressure strengthened into a tropical cyclone over the southeastern Arabian Sea on Friday. More thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Cyclone 01A. Thunderstorms were also increasing in bands revolving around the center of the tropical cyclone. The strongest rainbands were in the western half of the circulation. Bands in the eastern side of the tropical cyclone were dropping locally heavy rain and producing high waves along the coasts of Kerala and Karnataka. Storms near the center of Tropical Cyclone 01A generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north and east of the system. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the southern half of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the northern half of the circulation.

Tropical Cyclone 01A will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical cyclone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 31°C. It will move the western portion of an upper level ridge over India and the eastern Arabian Sea. The upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone 01A will intensify and it could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon within 24 hours. Once an inner core with an eye and an eyewall develops, rapid intensification could occur.

Tropical Cyclone 01A will move around the western side of a high pressure system over India. The high will steer the tropical cyclone toward the north-northwest during the next two days. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone 01A will stay west of India during the weekend. Rainbands on the eastern side of the tropical cyclone could produce gusty winds, drop locally heavy rain and bring high waves to the west coast of India. Tropical Cyclone 01A could move over the northern Arabian Sea by the end of the weekend.

Tropical Depression Drops Rain on Mindanao

Tropical Depression 03W dropped rain on Mindanao on Thursday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression 03W was located at latitude 7.7°N and longitude 124.7°E which put it about 45 miles (75 km) northwest of Davao, Philippines. The tropical depression was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Depression 03W made landfall on the east coast of Mindanao near Manay on Thursday. The depression generated showers and thunderstorms as it moved over Mindanao. Some of the rainbands revolving around the center of the tropical depression dropped heavy rain over parts of Mindanao. The circulation around Tropical Depression 03W weakened steadily after it moved over land. It is likely to continue to weaken as it moves west across the southern Philippines.