Tropical Storm Choi-wan Brings Rain to Philippines

Tropical Storm Choi-wan brought rain to the central Philippines on Tuesday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Choi-wan was located at latitude 13.1°N and longitude 121.9°E which put it about 155 miles (250 km) southeast of Manila, Philippines. Choi-wan was moving toward the west-northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

The center of Tropical Storm Choi-wan made an initial landfall on the east coast of Samar and then it moved west-northwest across the central Philippines. Choi-wan moved across the Sibuyan Sea and it was centered southeast of Manila on Tuesday night. The circulation around Tropical Storm Choi-wan weakened when the center passed over Samar, but it was still producing a small area of tropical storm force winds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Choi-wan.

Tropical Storm Choi-wan dropped locally heavy rain over parts of Samar, Masbate, Panay and Mindoro on Tuesday. An upper level ridge centered over southern China was producing northeasterly winds which were blowing toward the top of Choi-wan. Those winds were producing moderate vertical wind shear and they causing the heavier rain to fall in bands in the southern half of Tropical Storm Choi-wan. Bands in the northern half of the tropical storm consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Storm Choi-wan will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Choi-wan toward the north-northwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Choi-wan could pass just south of Manila in 12 hours. Choi-wan could drop locally heavy rain on Mindoro and western Luzon. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Choi-wan will move through an environment that is mostly unfavorable for intensification. Choi-wan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. However, the upper level ridge center over southern China will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will limit the potential for intensification. The eastern side of the circulation around Tropical Storm Choi-wan will be over Luzon during the next 24 hours, which will also be unfavorable for intensification.

Tropical Storm Blanca Weakens South of Baja California

Tropical Storm Blanca weakened south of Baja California on Tuesday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Blanca was located at latitude 14.7°N and longitude 110.9°W which put it about 570 miles (915 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California. Blanca was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

After reaching its maximum intensity on Monday night when the sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h), Tropical Storm Blanca weakened on Tuesday afternoon. An upper level trough west of Baja California produced moderate southwesterly winds that blew toward the top of Blanca’s circulation. Those winds caused moderate vertical wind shear and the shear caused Tropical Storm Blanca to weaken. The vertical wind shear also caused an asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms around Blanca. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Blanca. Bands in the western half of the tropical storm consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Blanca.

Tropical Storm Blanca will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next several days. Blanca will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. However the upper level trough west of Baja California will cause strong vertical wind shear and the wind shear will cause Blanca to weaken. Tropical Storm Blanca could weaken to a tropical depression in a day or two.

Tropical Storm Blanca will move around the southern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high will steer Blanca toward the west-northwest during the next two days. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Blanca will move farther away from Baja California.

Tropical Storm Choi-wan Nears the Philippines

Tropical Storm Choi-wan neared the central Philippines on Monday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Choi-wan was located at latitude 10.4°N and longitude 126.9°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) east-southeast of Guiuan, Philippines. Choi-wan was moving toward the west-northwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Tropical Storm Choi-wan was approaching Samar in the central Philippines on Monday night. An upper level ridge centered near Hong Kong was producing northeasterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Choi-wan. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and they were affecting the structure of the tropical storm. The stronger thunderstorms were occurring bands southwest of the center of Tropical Storm Choi-wan. The bands in the other parts of Choi-wan consisted mainly of showers and lower thunderstorms. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Choi-wan will move through an environment only marginally favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Choi-wan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. However, the upper level ridge will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will limit the potential for intensification. The center of Tropical Storm Choi-wan will move over land later on Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Choi-wan will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Choi-wan during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Choi-wan will reach Samar in 12 hours. Choi-wan will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Samar. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. The center of Tropical Storm Choi-wan could reach the southeastern part of Luzon in 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Blanca Develops Southwest of Mexico

Tropical Storm Blanca developed southwest of Mexico on Monday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Blanca was located at latitude 13.5°N and longitude 108.9°W which put it about 520 miles (840 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Blanca was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Former Tropical Depression Two-E strengthened on Monday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center named the system Tropical Storm Blanca. The circulation around Blanca organized quickly on Monday. More thunderstorms formed near the center of circulation. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The circulation around Tropical Storm Blanca was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 25 miles from the center of Blanca.

Tropical Storm Blanca will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Blanca will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Blanca will intensify during the next 24 hours and it could strengthen to a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Blanca will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Blanca toward the west-northwest during the next two days. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Blanca will move away from Mexico.

TD 04W Strengthens to Tropical Storm Choi-wan East of Mindanao

Tropical Depression 04W strengthened to Tropical Storm Choi-wan east of Mindanao on Sunday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Choi-wan was located at latitude 8.2°N and longitude 130.4°E which put it about 260 miles (420 km) east of Mindanao. Choi-wan was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The circulation around former Tropical Depression 04W exhibited more organization on Sunday night and the Japan Meteorological Agency named the system as Tropical Storm Choi-wan. Although the circulation around Choi-wan exhibited more organization, the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western side of Tropical Storm Choi-wan. Bands in the eastern half of the tropical storm consisted of showers and lower clouds. Storms west of the center of Choi-wan generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west and south of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Choi-wan will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Choi-wan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level ridge centered northeast of the Philippines. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical storm. Those winds are the reason for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms and they will continue to cause vertical wind shear. The wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification, but the shear will limit the rate of intensification. Tropical Storm Choi-wan will likely intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Choi-wan will move around the western side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high will steer Choi-wan toward the northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Choi-wan could approach the central Philippines in 36 hours.

Tropical Depression 04W Forms Southwest of Palau

Tropical Depression 04W formed southwest of Palau on Saturday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression 04W was located at latitude 6.8°N and longitude 133.5°E which put it about 75 miles (120 km) southwest of Palau. It was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Depression 04W was still organizing on Saturday night. Bands of thunderstorms were revolving around the center of the depression. The strongest rainbands were in the western half of the circulation. Bands on the eastern side of the tropical depression consisted mainly of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west and north of the depression.

Tropical Depression 04W will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the southern side of an upper level ridge east of the Philippines. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the depression. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear. The wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification, but the shear will limit the rate of intensification. Tropical Depression 04W will likely intensify into a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Depression 04W will move around the western side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high will steer the tropical depression toward the northwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Depression 04W will move farther away from Palau. The tropical depression is forecast to pass east of the Philippines.

Tropical Cyclone Yaas Hits Northeast India

Tropical Cyclone Yaas hit northeastern India early on Wednesday. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Yaas was located at latitude 21.8°N and longitude 86.8°E which put it about 115 miles (185 km) southwest of Kolkata, India. Yaas was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Yaas made landfall on the coast of northeastern India early on Wednesday. The center of Yaas crossed the coastline near Balasore, India. Tropical Cyclone Yaas was the equivalent of a strong tropical storm at the time when it made landfall. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) on the eastern side of Yaas over the northern Bay of Bengal. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) on the western side of the circulation which was over northern Odisha.

Tropical Cyclone Yaas will move slowly toward the northwest over northeastern India during the next day or so. Yaas will weaken gradually as it moves farther inland. Tropical Cyclone Yaas will produce gusty winds over northern Odisha during the next 24 hours. The wind could cause sporadic power outages. Yaas will also drop locally heavy rain over parts of northeastern India and flash floods could occur in some locations. The heaviest rain will fall in the western side of the circulation. Tropical Cyclone Yaas may have caused a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along the coast of northern Bay of Bengal. The water level should drop slowly as Yaas moves farther inland and weakens.

Tropical Cyclone Yaas Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Yaas strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the northern Bay of Bengal on Tuesday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Yaas was located at latitude 20.1°N and longitude 89.1°E which put it about 195 miles (310 km) south of Kolkata, India. Yaas was moving toward the north at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Yaas intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon south of Kolkata on Tuesday. A broken ring of thunderstorms surrounded the center of Yaas and the strongest winds were occurring in the storms in the ring. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cylone Yaas. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west and north of the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Yaas. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Yaas will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours . Yaas will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge centered over Bangladesh. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear may not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Yaas could strengthen gradually during the next 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Yaas will move around the western side of a high pressure system over Southeast Asia. The high will steer the tropical cyclone toward the north-northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Yaas will make landfall on the coastline of Odisha southwest of Kolkata in 15 hours. Tropical Cyclone Yaas will be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it approaches the coast. Yaas is likely to bring damaging winds and locally heavy rain to the coastal regions of Odisha and West Bengal. Heavy rain could cause flash floods over parts of northeastern India. The coast along the northern Bay of Bengal is very vulnerable to a storm surge. Tropical Cyclone Yaas will cause a dangerous storm surge of up to 9 feet (3 meters) on parts of the coast around the northern Bay of Bengal.

Tropical Cyclone Yaas Intensifies South of Kolkata

Tropical Cyclone Yaas intensified over the northern Bay of Bengal on Monday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Yaas was located at latitude 18.5°N and longitude 88.0°E which put it about 305 miles (495 km) south of Kolkata, India. Yaas was moving toward the north-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Yaas strengthened to almost the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon south of Kokata on Monday night. The distribution of thunderstorms around Yaas remained asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Yaas. Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western and southern sides of the center of Yaas. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west and north of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Yaas will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Yaas will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the Bay of Bengal. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Yaas will strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Yaas will move around the western side of a high pressure system over Southeast Asia. The high will steer the tropical cyclone toward the north-northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Yaas will make landfall on the coastline of Odisha southwest of Kolkata in 24 hours. Tropical Cyclone Yaas will be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it approaches the coast. Yaas is likely to bring damaging winds and locally heavy rain to the coastal regions of Odisha and West Bengal. Tropical Cyclone Yaas will cause a dangerous storm surge of up to 9 feet (3 meters) on parts of the coast around the northern Bay of Bengal.

Tropical Cyclone Forms over Bay of Bengal

A tropical cyclone formed over the Bay of Bengal on Sunday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of a tropical cyclone was located at latitude 16.2°N and longitude 89.8°E which put it about 465 miles (750 km) south-southeast of Kolkata, India. The tropical cyclone was moving toward the northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A low pressure system over the Bay of Bengal strengthened on Sunday night and the system was designated as Tropical Cyclone 02B by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. The circulation around the tropical cyclone was still organizing. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the outer portion of the circulation around the tropical cyclone. The inner end of a rainband began to wrap around the western side of the center of circulation. The circulation around the tropical cyclone was large. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of circulation.

The tropical cyclone will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 31°C. The tropical cyclone will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Bay of Bengal. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. The tropical cyclone will intensify during the next 24 hours. It could intensify more rapidly once an inner core with an eye and an eyewall form. The tropical cyclone could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon within 36 hours.

The tropical cyclone will move around the western side of a high pressure system over Southeast Asia. The high will steer the tropical cyclone toward the north-northwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track the tropical cyclone could approach the coastline of Odisha and West Bengal in 48 hours. It will likely be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it approaches the coast. The tropical cyclone is likely to bring damaging winds, and locally heavy rain. It will also likely cause a dangerous storm surge on parts of the coast around the northern Bay of Bengal.