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Tropical Storm Nokaen Weakens East of the Philippines

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Tropical Storm Nokaen weakened east of the Philippines on Sunday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of the Tropical Storm Nokaen was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 125.9°E which put the center about 310 miles (500 km) east-southeast of Casiguran, Philippines.  Nokaen was moving toward the north-northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A combination of drier air and vertical wind shear caused Tropical Storm Nokaen to weaken east of the Philippines on Sunday morning.  A large high pressure system over eastern Asia was transporting drier air into the environment around Tropical Storm Nokaen.  The drier air caused many of the thunderstorms in Nokaen’s circulation to dissipate.  An upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean was producing southerly winds that blew the tops off of many of the thunderstorms remaining in Tropical Storm Nokaen.

Most of the bands in Tropical Storm Nokaen consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds on Sunday morning.  A few new thunderstorms formed northeast of the center of Nokaen’s circulation.  The dissipation of many of the thunderstorms in Nokaen reduced the upper level divergence.   Without thunderstorms to pump mass away from Nokaen, convergence in the lower levels of the atmosphere caused the surface pressure to increase.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Nokaen remained asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the northern half of Nokaen’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out only 25 miles (40 km) in the southern half of Tropical Storm Nokaen.

Tropical Storm Nokaen will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Nokaen will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  However, the western end of the upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean will continue to produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Nokaen’s circulation.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear.  In addition drier air will continue to surround Tropical Storm Nokaen.  Tropical Storm Nokaen is likely to continue to weaken slowly during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Nokaen will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Nokaen toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Nokaen will move farther away from Luzon.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai Approaches Rodrigues

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Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was approaching Rodrigues on Saturday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of the Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was located at latitude 19.2°S and longitude 66.1°E which put the center about 210 miles (335 km) east-northeast of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues.  Dudzai was moving toward the southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai continued to weaken on Saturday, although Dudzai’s intensity appeared to have stabilized on Saturday evening.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were still revolving around the center of Dudzai’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Dudzai generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and east of the tropical cyclone.  However, the removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere for much of Saturday.  So, the surface pressure continued to increase on Saturday.  The removal of mass seemed to be moving back into equilibrium with the convergence of mass in the lower levels on Saturday evening.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Dudzai continued to be asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (300 km) in the southern half of Dudzai’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) in the northern half of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.

Tropical Cyclone Duzai will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dudzai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Dudzai’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai could intensify a little on Sunday.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Dudzai toward the west-southwest on during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will pass near Rodrigues in 18 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Rodrigues.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Nokaen Passes East of Luzon

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Tropical Storm Nokaen was passing just to the east of Luzon on Saturday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of the Tropical Storm Nokaen was located at latitude 15.2°N and longitude 124.1°E which put the center about 185 miles (300 km) east-southeast of Casiguran, Philippines.  Nokaen was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Storm Nokaen strengthened a little more as it moved east of Luzon on Saturday morning.  Even though Nokaen was stronger, the distribution of thunderstorms remained asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western and northern parts of Tropical Storm Nokaen.  Bands in the eastern and southern parts of Nokaen’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Nokaen generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Nokaen was interacting with a high pressure system over eastern Asia.  The interaction was causing a large area of strong winds in the northwestern quadrant of Nokaen’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) in the northwestern quadrant of Tropical Storm Nokaen.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the other quadrants of Nokaen’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Nokaen will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Nokaen will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Nokaen’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Tropical Storm Nokaen will start to weaken when the vertical wind shear increases.

Tropical Storm Nokaen will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Nokaen toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Nokaen will remain east of Luzon.

Bands in the western side of Tropical Storm Nokaen will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Luzon.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai Churns Westward

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Tropical Cyclone Dudzai continued to churn westward over the South Indian Ocean on Friday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of the Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was located at latitude 17.6°S and longitude 68.8°E which put the center about 750 miles (1210 km) south-southwest of Diego Garcia.  Dudzai was moving toward the west-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 971 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai weakened as it churned westward over the South Indian Ocean on Friday.  An eye was no longer visible on satellite imagery of Dudzai on Friday evening.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were still revolving around the center of Dudzai’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Dudzai generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  However, the removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Friday.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Dudzai increased on Friday even though Dudzai was weakening.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 75 miles (120 km) in the southwestern quadrant of Dudzai’s circulation.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the other quadrants of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 155 miles (250 km) in the southern half of Dudzai’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the northern half of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HHI) for Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was 17.8,  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 17.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 34.8.

Tropical Cyclone Duzai will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dudzai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level rdige that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dudzai’s circulation.  Those winds will cause vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will continue to weaken on Saturday because of the vertical wind shear.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Dudzai toward the west-southwest on during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will approach Rodrigues in 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Nokaen Nears the Philippines

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Tropical Storm Nokaen moved nearer to the Philippines on Friday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of the Tropical Storm Nokaen was located at latitude 12.4°N and longitude 126.7°E which put the center about 115 miles (185 km) east of Laoang, Philippines.  Nokaen was moving toward the west-northwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Tropical Storm Nokaen strengthened on Friday morning as it moved closer to the Philippines.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Nokaen’s circulation.  More thunderstorms also developed in bands in the western side of Tropical Storm Nokaen.  Bands in the eastern side of Nokaen’s circulation still consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Nokaen generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of more mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northwestern part of Tropical Storm Nokaen.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) in the northwestern quadrant of Nokaen’s circulation.  The winds in the other parts of Tropical Storm Nokaen were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Nokaen will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Nokaen will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Nokaen’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Nokaen could continue to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Nokaen will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Nokaen toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Nokaen will be near Samar on in 24 hours.

Bands in the western side of Nokaen’s circulation are already bringing gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Samar, Catanduanes Island, and southeastern Luzon.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai Intensifies Back to Equivalent of Cat. 4 Hurricane

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Tropical Cyclone Dudzai intensified back to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane as it moved over the South Indian south of Diego Garcia on Thursday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of the Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was located at latitude 16.9°S and longitude 72.4°E which put the center about 675 miles (1090 km) south of Diego Garcia.  Dudzai was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 942 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai rapidly intensified back to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Thursday.  Dudzai started to intensify rapidly after it moved west of cooler water that its winds had mixed to the surface of the ocean earlier this week.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was able to extract more energy from the South Indian Ocean, which cause it to intensify rapidly.

A small circular eye was visible again on satellite images at the center of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving round the core of Dudzai’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Dudzai generated more upper level divergence that pumped more mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of more mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Dudzai increased on Thursday.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Dudzai’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the northern side of Dudzai’s circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was 28.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 41.3.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017.

Tropical Cyclone Duzai will move through an environment favorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Dudzai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level trough that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Dudzai’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai is likely to start to weaken on Friday because of the vertical wind shear.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Dudzai toward the west on during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will remain far to the south of Diego Garcia.  Dudzai could approach Rodrigues during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Nokaen Develops East of the Philippines

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Tropical Storm Nokaen developed over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines on Thursday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of the Tropical Storm Nokaen was located at latitude 10.2°N and longitude 128.8°E which put the center about 220 miles (335 km) east of Dinagat, Philippines.  Nokaen was moving toward the northwest at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A low pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines strengthened on Thursday morning and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Nokaen.

Thunderstorms were occurring near the center of Tropical Storm Nokaen.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the western and northern parts of Nokaen’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern and southern parts of Tropical Storm Nokaen consisted primarily of showers and thunderstorms.  Storms near the center of Nokaen generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of winds speeds in Tropical Storm Nokaen was asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) in the northern half of Nokaen’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the southern half of Tropical Storm Nokaen.

Tropical Storm Nokaen will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Nokaen will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Nokaen’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Nokaen could intensify slowly during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Nokaen will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Nokaen toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Nokaen will move closer to the central Philippines.

Bands in the western side of Nokaen’s circulation will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Samar, Cataduanes Island, and southeastern Luzon.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai Moves West

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Tropical Cyclone Dudzai moved toward the west over the South Indian Ocean on Wednesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of the Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was located at latitude 17.2°S and longitude 75.9°E which put the center about 740 miles (1195 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Dudzai was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai continued to be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon as it moved westward over the South Indian Ocean on Wednesday.  Thunderstorms continued to develop near the center of Dudzai’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.  Storms near the center of Dudzai generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the convergence of the mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure was nearly steady on Wednesday afternoon.

The strongest winds were occurring in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the southern half of Dudzai’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the southern side of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles in the northern half of Dudzai’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move into an environment that will become more favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move farther away from cooler water it mixed to the surface while it moved slowly during the beginning of this week.  Dudzai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.   It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dudzai’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai is likely to intensify on Thursday.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Dudzai toward the west on during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will remain far to the south of Diego Garcia.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai Weakens

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai weakened as it moved over the South Indian Ocean on Tuesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of the Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was located at latitude 17.2°S and longitude 77.5°E which put the center about 775 miles (1255 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Dudzai was moving toward the west at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai weakened on Tuesday.  Dudzai continued to move slowly over cooler water its winds had mixed to the surface of the ocean.  The cooler water contained less energy.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai weakened because it was extracting less energy from the ocean.

Even though Tropical Cyclone Dudzai weakened, its structure remained intact.  There was a very small circular eye at the center of Dudzai’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Dudzai’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Dudzai generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  However, the removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure was increasing.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Dudzai’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Dudzai is 13.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 9.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 23.7.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Hannah when Hannah hit Texas in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean.   The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dudzai’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification.  In addition, the strong winds in the lower levels of Dudzai’s circulation will continue to mix cooler water to the surface of the South Indian Ocean.  The cooler water will transfer less energy into Tropical Cyclone Dudzai. Tropical Cyclone Dudzai is likely to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours due to the upwelling of cooler water.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move around the northeastern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Dudzai toward the west on during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will remain far to the south of Diego Garcia.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai Strengthens to Equivalent of Cat. 4 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai strengthened to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Monday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of the Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was located at latitude 17.1°S and longitude 78.0°E which put the center about 775 miles (1255 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Dudzai was moving toward the south-southeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 948 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai continued to intensify on Monday afternoon.  Dudzai strengthened to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  A small circular eye was present at the center of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Dudzai’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Dudzai generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to continue to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Dudzai’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Dudzai is 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 10.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 35.6.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai is similar in intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017.  Dudzai is slightly smaller than Harvey was.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move through an environment that will become less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, the strong winds in the lower levels of Dudzai’s circulation will mix cooler water to the surface of the South Indian Ocean.  The cooler water will transfer less energy into Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai is likely to weaken during the next 24 hours due to the upwelling of cooler water.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move through a region where the steering winds are weak during the next 12 hours.  Dudzai is likely to move slowly toward the south during that time period.  A high pressure system that is southwest of Dudzai will start to steer it toward the west on Wednesday.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will remain far to the south of Diego Garcia.