Author Archives: jay_hobgood

Tropical Storm Hagupit Maintaining Its Intensity for Now

Tropical Storm Hagupit maintained its intensity on Tuesday as it moved farther away from the Philippines.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Hagupit was located at latitude 13.3°N and longitude 116.6°E which put it about 320 miles west-southwest of Manila, Philippines and about 475 miles east-northeast of Cam Ranh, Vietnam.  Hagupit was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. and there gusts to 65 m.p.h.

Thunderstorms continue to develop near the center of circulation and upper level outflow is evident on satellite images.  However, Hagupit is likely to move into a more unfavorable environment as it moves westward.  Northeasterly winds over the lower levels of the South China Sea contain cooler and drier air.  Some of the cooler, drier air may be getting pulled around the western and southern portions of Hagupit’s circulation.  If the drier air reaches the center of circulation, then deep convection will diminish and the wind speeds will decrease.  Hagupit is also likely to move into an area of more vertical wind shear as it moves westward, which could weaken the storm even faster.

Hagupit is currently being steered westward by a subtropical ridge located north of it.  If Hagupit weakens and the convection becomes shallower, if could be steered toward the southwest or west-southwest by the northeasterly winds in the lower levels.  The center of Hagupit could near the coast of Vietnam in about 36 hours.

 

Tropical Storm Hagupit Moving Away From the Philippines

Tropical Storm Hagupit has moved across the central Philippines and it is now beginning to move into the South China Sea.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Hagupit was located at latitude 13.5°N and longitude 119.9°E which put it about 100 miles southwest of Manila.  Hagupit was moving toward the southwest at 11 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 60 m.p.h.

Some thunderstorms have redeveloped near the center of Hagupit now that it is back out over open water.  It is possible that the tropical storm could maintain its intensity or even strengthen a little in the short term.  However, as Hagupit moves farther west it will encounter a northeasterly flow of cooler and drier air and more pronounced vertical wind shear.  The more unfavorable thermodynamic environment and wind shear will likely cause Hagupit to weaken during the next few days.

The northeasterly winds are expected to push a weakening tropical storm or depression in the general direction of southern Vietnam.  Hagupit or its remnants could make landfall in Vietnam in about 72 hours.

 

Hagupit Weakening As It Moves Across the Philippines

Hagupit has weakened below typhoon intensity and it is now a tropical storm.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Hagupit was located at latitude 13.4°N and longitude 112.7°E which put it near Catanauan, Philippines and about 140 miles southeast of Manila.  Hagupit was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 85 m.p.h.

Interaction of the circulation with land and moderate vertical wind shear have gradually reduced the intensity of Hagupit and the weakening trend should continue on Monday.  Once Hagupit moves west of the Philippines, it will move into an area of stronger northeasterly winds in the lower levels and cooler, drier air.  As a result the rate of weakening could increase.

There are indications that Hagupit could begin to move toward the southwest when it encounters the stronger northeasterly flow.  A much weaker Hagupit or its remnants could reach southern Vietnam in a few days.

 

Typhoon Hagupit Is Crossing the Central Philippines

Typhoon Hagupit made a landfall near Dolores on the east coast of the island of Samar in the Philippines on Saturday.  It brought strong winds and heavy rain to parts of Samar.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Typhoon Hagupit was located at latitude 11.8°N and longitude 124.3°E which put it near Masbate in the central Philippines and about 300 miles southeast of Manila.  Hagupit was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 125 m.p.h.

Hagupit was being steered to the west by a subtropical ridge to the north of the typhoon.  The subtropical ridge is expected to steer it in a generally west or west-northwesterly direction during the next day or two.  A surge of northeasterly winds could steer Hagupit to the southwest after it begins to move west of the Philippines.

The interaction of the circulation around Hagupit with the islands and topography of the central Philippines is expected to continue to weaken the typhoon.  It could bring strong winds and locally heavy rainfall to southern Luzon and Mindoro as it moves across those areas.  Heavy rains could create a potential for flooding and mudslides in some areas.  Hagupit could still be a typhoon when it moves south of Manila in 24 to 36 hours.

 

Super Typhoon Hagupit Approaching the Philippines

Super Typhoon Hagupit is nearing the Philippines and the center will pass near the northern end of Samar during the next 24 hours.  At 7:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Hagupit was located at latitude 12.3°N and longitude 127.4ºE which put it about 240 miles east of Legaspi, Philippines and about 450 miles east-southeast of Manila.  Hagupit was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. and there were gust estimated to 185 m.p.h.

The intensity of Hagupit has fluctuated during the past 24 hours as the speed of the upper level winds has varied and the internal dynamics of the circulation have affected the wind speed. The Sea Surface Temperatures near the Philippines are just slightly cooler and interaction with the islands will cause some disruption to the circulation.  As a result, Hagupit will most likely maintain its intensity or slowly weaken as it approaches the Philippines.  If the circulation interacts more with the islands, then the rate of weakening will be faster.

Hagupit continues to be steered to the west-northwest by a subtropical ridge to its north and that steering pattern appears likely to continue.  On its current path, Hagupit will begin to affect portions of the Central Philippines on Saturday.  Hagupit will move near the northern end of Samar and then begin to have an impact on southeastern and southern Luzon.  The center of Hagupit could be near Manila in about 72 hours.  Hagupit will be weaker, but it could still be a typhoon when it approaches Manila.

Hagupit will bring strong winds and heavy rainfall as it crosses the central Philippines.  The Hurricane Intensity Index for Hagupit is 25.1 and the Hurricane Size Index is 19.9  which means that it has the potential to cause regional significant damage.  Heavy rain will create the potential for flooding and mudslides.  Some locations could also see a significant storm surge.

 

Typhoon Hagupit Still Moving Toward the Philippines

Although Typhoon Hagupit has weakened somewhat, it still has the potential to bring strong winds and heavy rain to portions of the central and northern Philippines.  At 10:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Hagupit was located at latitude 12.0°N and longitude 129.3°E which put it about 400 miles east of Legaspi, Philippines and about 610 miles east-southeast of Manila.  Hagupit was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 170 m.p.h.

As the forward movement of Hagupit slowed, easterly winds in the upper troposphere generated more wind shear and the typhoon has slowly weakened.  This weakening trend is likely to continue even though Hagupit will be moving over warm Sea Surface Temperatures.  Hagupit is still expected to be a significant typhoon when it begins to near the Philippines in about 36 hours.

Hagupit is being steering to the west-northwest by a subtropical ridge to its north.  A trough in the upper level westerly flow near Japan is expected to temporarily weaken the ridge and the forward motion of Hagupit could slow further.  However, after the upper level trough moves northeast of the ridge, the ridge is expected to strengthen again and steer Hagupit into the Philippines.  Hagupit could be very near the island of Samar in about 36 hours.  It is expected to cross the most southeastern portion of Luzon in about 54 hours and the center could be near Manila in  about 96 hours.

Although Hagupit is likely to weaken further before it reaches the Philippines it could bring strong winds and heavy rain.  The center is expected to pass just south of the Mayon Volcano and the potential for flooding and mudslides exists.  Moving over the islands of the Philippines will also weaken Hagupit, but it could still be a typhoon when it approaches Manila.

 

Hagupit Intensifies Rapidly Into a Super Typhoon

Typhoon Hagupit continued to intensify rapidly on Wednesday and it is now the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane.  At 7:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Super Typhoon Hagupit was located at latitude 9.8°N and longitude 133.9°E which put it about 175 miles north of Palau, about 600 miles east of Tacloban, Philippines and about 930 miles east-southeast of Manila.  Hagupit was moving toward the west-northwest at 17 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 175 m.p.h. and there were estimated gusts to 215 m.p.h.

Hagupit is in a very favorable environment.  It is over warm Sea Surface Temperatures and the upper level winds are light.  Upper level outflow is well developed and it is pumping out mass in all directions.  The environment is capable of supporting a little further intensification.  However, when tropical cyclones become as intense as Hagupit, they often undergo eyewall replacement cycles, which can produce fluctuations in intensity.  Hagupit is expected to remain an intense typhoon during the next two to three days.

A subtropical ridge north of Hagupit is steering the typhoon toward the west-northwest.  The ridge is expected to steer Hagupit in the same general direction during the next 48 hours.  After that time an upper level trough in the westerly flow near Japan is expected to weaken the subtropical ridge and the forward motion of Hagupit could slow down.  There is much more uncertainty about the track forecast beyond three days.  One set of forecast models is predicting that Hagupit will turn toward the north before it reaches the Philippines.  However, another set of forecast models keeps Hagupit moving westward and reaching the Philippines during the weekend.  Given the intensity of Hagupit, it could be a destructive typhoon if it does move through the Philippines.

 

Typhoon Hagupit Intensies Rapidly As It Nears Yap

Typhoon Hagupit intensified rapidly on Tuesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Hagupit was located at latitude 7.9°N and longitude 139.5°E which put it about 190 miles southeast of Yap and about 1330 miles east-southeast of Manila, Philippines.  Hagupit was moving toward the west-northwest at 21 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed had increased to 105 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 130 m.p.h.

Hagupit is in an environment favorable for further intensification.  It is moving over warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and the upper level winds remain light.  The upper level outflow is well developed and it continues to pump out mass and allow the surface pressure to decrease.  Hagupit is likely to continue to intensify on Wednesday and it could reach Super Typhoon intensity in several days.

Hagupit is being steered toward the west-northwest by a subtropical ridge located to its north.  On this track the center of Hagupit will pass just south of Yap in a few hours.  An upper level trough in the westerly flow near Japan will weaken the subtropical ridge and Hagupit is likely to move more slowly in two or three days.  The winds at the steering level will be weak in three or four days and the longer term track of Hagupit is more uncertain.  There is a possibility that it could be steered westward toward the Philippines.

Tropical Storm Hagupit Organizing Rapidly South of Guam

Tropical Depression 22W organized rapidly on Monday and intensified into Tropical Storm Hagupit.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Hagupit was located at latitude 6.1°N and longitude 146.0°E which put it about 490 miles south-southeast of Guam and about 570 miles east-southeast of Yap.  Hagupit was moving toward the west at 24 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 80 m.p.h.

Hagupit has developed multiple spiral bands of thunderstorms and there are some indications that an eye may be forming at the center of the circulation.  There is a large and well developed circulation around the tropical storm.  The winds in the upper levels are relatively light and upper level divergence continues to pump out mass from the center of circulation.  Hagupit will continue to move over warm Sea Surface Temperatures and the environment is favorable for continued intensification.  Hagupit could become a typhoon on Tuesday and it could be a strong typhoon in several days.

A subtropical ridge north of Hagupit is steering the storm toward the west and it is likely to steer the tropical storm in a general west-northwesterly direction during the next 48-72 hours.  The projected path would bring Hagupit very close to Yap in about 36 hours.   There is more uncertainty about the possible track of Hagupit after it passes Yap because an upper level trough moving north of the storm could weaken the subtropical ridge.  If the ridge weakens, the winds at the steering level could become weaken and the motion of Hagupit could slow.

 

Tropical Depression 22W Forms South of Chuuk

A new tropical depression has formed over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  At 11:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression 22W (TD 22W) was located at latitude 4.8°N and longitude 152.8°E which put it about 150 miles south-southeast of Chuuk and about 800 miles southeast of Guam.  TD 22W was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 45 m.p.h.

Thunderstorms were increasing near the center of TD 22W and it was showing increased signs of organization.  There was an area of thunderstorms at the core of the circulation and spiral bands of convection were developing outside the core.  TD 22W is over warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and the upper level winds are not too strong.  The environment is favorable for intensification and upper level divergence is occurring over the eastern half of the circulation.  TD 22W is likely to intensify into a tropical storm on Monday.  Further intensification is likely over the next few days as the storm remains over warm SSTs and a period of more rapid intensification is possible.

TD 22W is being steered to the west-northwest by a subtropical ridge that is located to the north of it.  The subtropical ridge is likely to continue to steer TD 22W in that same general direction during the next two or three days.  The storm could be a typhoon by the time it nears Yap.