Category Archives: Tropical Cyclones

Information about tropical cyclones

Gabrielle Prompts Hurricane Watch for the Azores

The risk posed by Hurricane Gabrielle prompted the issuance of a Hurricane Watch for the Azores on Tuesday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Gabrielle was located at latitude 34.3°N and longitude 57.5°W which put the center about 1710 miles (2755 km) west of the Azores.  Gabrielle was moving toward the east-northeast at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for all of the Azores.

A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) was at the center of Gabrielle’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Gabrielle’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Gabrielle generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass in the upper level was slightly less than the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  The strong inflow of mass in the lower levels caused the surface pressure to increase gradually.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Gabrielle did not change much during the past 24 hours.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Gabrielle’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) in the western side of Hurricane Gabrielle.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the eastern side of Gabrielle’s circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Gabrielle was 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 38.0.  Hurricane Gabrielle was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017.

Hurricane Gabrielle will move through an environment that will become more unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Gabrielle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the southern extent of the upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes.  Those upper level westerly winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Hurricane Gabrielle will continue to weaken gradually during the next 24 hours.

The upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes will steer Hurricane Gabrielle toward the east during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Gabrielle will reach the Azores on Thursday.

Hurricane Gabrielle will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Azores on Thursday night and Friday.

Typhoon Ragasa Moves over South China Sea

Typhoon Ragasa moved over the South China Sea on Monday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Ragasa was located at latitude 20.2°N and longitude 117.7°E which put the center about 300 miles (485 km) east-southeast of Hong Kong.  Ragasa was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 930 mb.

Typhoon Ragasa went through an eyewall replacement cycle, but the eyewall replacement only weakened Ragasa slightly.  A new eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) was at the center of Ragasa’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Typhoon Ragasa.  Storms near the center of Ragasa generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away in all directions from the typhoon.  The removal of large quantities of mass in the upper levels was slightly less than the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  The inflow of mass in the lower levels caused the surface pressure to increase slowly.

The circulation around Typhoon Ragasa was large.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Ragasa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 240 miles (390 km) from the center of Typhoon Ragasa.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Ragasa was 29.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 28.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 58.6.  Typhoon Ragasa was larger and stronger than Hurricane Helene was when Helene hit Florida in 2024.

Typhoon Ragasa will move through an environment that will be favorable for a powerful typhoon during the next 24 hours.  Ragasa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over China.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ragasa’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Typhoon Ragasa could weaken slowly during the next 24 hours because of more vertical wind shear.

Typhoon Ragasa will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over China.  The high pressure system will steer Ragasa toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Typhoon Ragasa will be just south of Hong Kong in less than 24 hours.

Typhoon Ragasa will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to coastal regions in southern China including Hong Kong.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Typhoon Ragasa could also cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along parts of the coast.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Typhoon Neoguri moved farther east of Japan.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Neoguri was located at latitude 30.6°N and longitude 153.3°E which put the center about 910 miles (1470 km) east of Tokyo, Japan.  Neoguri was moving toward the east-northeast at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 963 mb.

Hurricane Gabrielle Strengthens to Cat. 4

Hurricane Gabrielle strengthened to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale east of Bermuda on Monday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Gabrielle was located at latitude 31.7°N and longitude 61.8°W which put the center about 180 miles (290 km) east-southeast of Bermuda.  Gabrielle was moving toward the north-northeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 948 mb.

Hurricane Gabrielle strengthened to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale east of Bermuda on Monday afternoon.  A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km was at the center of Gabrielle’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Gabrielle’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Gabrielle generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Gabrielle increased on Monday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Gabrielle’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) in the western side of Hurricane Gabrielle.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the eastern side of Gabrielle’s circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Gabrielle was 28.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 41.7.

Hurricane Gabrielle will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Gabrielle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern extent of the upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes.  Those upper level westerly winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Hurricane Gabrielle will start to weaken when the wind shear increases.

The upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes will steer Hurricane Gabrielle toward the east during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Gabrielle will move away from Bermuda on Tuesday.  Gabrielle will approach the Azores on Thursday.

 

Gabrielle Rapidly Intensifies to Major Hurricane

Hurricane Gabrielle rapidly intensified to a major hurricane southeast of Bermuda on Monday morning.  At 9:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Gabrielle was located at latitude 30.6°N and longitude 62.2°W which put the center about 195 miles (310 km) southeast of Bermuda.  Gabrielle was moving toward the north at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 957 mb.

Hurricane Gabrielle rapidly intensified to a major hurricane southeast of Bermuda on Monday morning.  A small circular eye formed at the center of Gabrielle’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Gabrielle’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Gabrielle generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large quantities of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Hurricane Gabrielle became more symmetrical on Monday morning.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Gabrielle’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Hurricane Gabrielle.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Gabrielle was 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 32.0.  Hurricane Gabrielle was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Dennis when Dennie hit Northwest Florida in 2005.

Hurricane Gabrielle will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Gabrielle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move in the region between an upper level low south of Bermuda and an upper level trough near the east coast of the U.S.  The upper level winds are weak between the upper level low and the upper level trough.  So, there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Gabrielle will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Gabrielle could continue to intensify rapidly during the next few hours .

Hurricane Gabrielle will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Gabrielle toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Gabrielle will pass east of Bermuda later on Monday.  Gabrielle could approach the Azores by Thursday evening.

Typhoon Ragasa Hammers Babuyan Islands

Typhoon Ragasa hammered the Babuyan Islands just north of Luzon on Sunday night.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Mounday the center of Typhoon Ragasa was located at latitude 19.4°N and longitude 121.1°E which put the center about 50 miles (80 km) north of Claveria, Philippines.  Ragasa was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (315 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 916 mb.

Typhoon Ragasa was the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale when it hit the Babuyan Islands just north of Luzon on Sunday night.  The eye at the center of Ragasa’s circulation passed over Babuyan Island.  Typhoon Ragasa brought potentially catastrophic winds and heavy rain to the island.  Ragasa could also have caused a storm surge of up to 16 feet (5 meters) along the coast of the island.

Typhoon Ragasa was still the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on Monday morning.  A circular eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) was at the center of Ragasa’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Typhoon Ragasa.  Storms near the center of Ragasa generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away in all directions from the typhoon.  The removal of large quantities of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  The balance of inflow and outflow of mass caused the surface pressure to remain nearly constant.

The circulation around Typhoon Ragasa was large.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Ragasa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 250 miles (400km) from the center of Typhoon Ragasa.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Ragasa was 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 28.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 63.4.  Typhoon Ragasa was similar in intensity to Hurricane Maria when Maria hit Puerto Rico in 2017.  Ragasa was bigger than Maria was.

Typhoon Ragasa will move through an environment very favorable for a powerful typhoon during the next 24 hours.  Ragasa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Ragasa could maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours unless an eyewall replacement cycle occurs.

Typhoon Ragasa will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Ragasa toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Typhoon Ragasa will be south of Hong Kong in 48 hours.

Typhoon Ragasa will continue to produce very strong winds and heavy rain in the Batanes Islands and to the Babuyan Island until it moves farther to the west of those islands.   Typhoon Ragasa is likely to cause catastrophic damage on those islands.  Typhoon Ragasa will also continue to cause strong winds and heavy rain in northern Luzon.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Typhoon Neoguri weakened slightly far to the east of Japan.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Neoguri was located at latitude 30.3°N and longitude 152.0°E which put the center about 825 miles (1330 km) east of Tokyo, Japan.  Neoguri was moving toward the northeast at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 950 mb.

Tropical Storm Narda Forms South of Mexico

Tropical Storm Narda formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Sunday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Narda was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 100.5°W which put the center about 180 miles (290 km) south-southeast of Zihuatanejo, Mexico.  Narda was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico strengthened on Sunday and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Narda.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Narda was slowly becoming more organized.  Some thunderstorms began to develop near the center of Narda’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were starting to revolve around the center of Tropical Storm Narda.

The strongest winds were in the northern half of Tropical Storm Narda.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the northern side of Narda’s circulation.  The winds in the southern side of Tropical Storm Narda were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Narda will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Narda will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge that is over northern Mexico.  The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Narda’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to stop intensification.  Tropical Storm Narda could intensify on Monday if the vertical wind shear does not increase.

Tropical Storm Narda will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Narda toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Narda will remain west of the coast of Mexico.

Gabrielle Intensifies to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Gabrielle intensified to a hurricane southeast of Bermuda on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Gabrielle was located at latitude 28.5°N and longitude 61.7°W which put the center about 320 miles (515 km) southeast of Bermuda.  Gabrielle was moving toward the north-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft conducting research flights into former Tropical Storm Gabrielle found that Gabrielle had intensified to a hurricane on Sunday afternoon.

The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Hurricane Gabrielle.  A small eye appeared on microwave satellite imagery at the center of Gabrielle’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Gabrielle.  Storms near the center of Gabrielle generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north and east of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northeastern part of Hurricane Gabrielle.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Gabrielle’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) in the eastern side of Hurricane Gabrielle.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the western half of Gabrielle’s circulation.

Hurricane Gabrielle will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Gabrielle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move in the region between an upper level low south of Bermuda and an upper level trough near the east coast of the U.S.  The upper level winds are weak between the upper level low and the upper level trough.  So, there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Gabrielle will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Gabrielle could intensify rapidly at times.

Hurricane Gabrielle will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Gabrielle toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Gabrielle will pass east of Bermuda on Monday.  Gabrielle could approach the Azores by late next week.

Typhoon Ragasa Intensifies to Equivalent of Cat. 5 Hurricane

Typhoon Ragasa intensified to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Saturday night east of northern Luzon.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Ragasa was located at latitude 18.5°N and longitude 125.8°E which put the center about 280 miles (455 km) east of Aparri, Philippines.  Ragasa was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (315 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 922 mb.

Typhoon Ragasa intensified to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on Saturday night.  A small circular eye was at the center of Ragasa’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Typhoon Ragasa.  Storms near the center of Ragasa generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away in all directions from the typhoon.  The removal of large quantities of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Typhoon Ragasa was large.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Ragasa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 215 miles (345 km) from the center of Typhoon Ragasa.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Ragasa was 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 20.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 55.6.  Typhoon Ragasa was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Maria when Maria hit Puerto Rico in 2017.

Typhoon Ragasa will move through an environment very favorable for a powerful typhoon during the next 24 hours.  Ragasa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Ragasa could continue to intensify during the next 24 hours unless an eyewall replacement cycle occurs.

Typhoon Ragasa will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Ragasa toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Typhoon Ragasa will be north of Luzon in 24 hours.

Typhoon Ragasa will bring very strong winds and heavy rain to the Batanes Islands and to the Babuyan Islands.  Ragasa could cause a storm surge of up to 16 feet (5 meters).  Typhoon Ragasa could cause catastrophic damage on those islands.  Typhoon Ragasa will also cause strong winds and heavy rain in northern Luzon.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, powerful Typhoon Neoguri continued to spin far to the southeast of Japan.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Neoguri was located at latitude 28.0°N and longitude 151.6°E which put the center about 880 miles (1420 km) east-southeast of Tokyo, Japan.  Neoguri was moving toward the northwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 936 mb.

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Strengthens

Tropical Storm Gabrielle strengthened on Saturday as it moved over the Atlantic Ocean southeast of Bermuda.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was located at latitude 25.6°N and longitude 59.0°W which put the center about 580 miles (935 km) southeast of Bermuda.  Gabrielle was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Tropical Storm Gabrielle strengthened on Saturday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Gabrielle’s circulation.  A small eye was visible intermittently at the center of Gabrielle’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern and eastern parts of Tropical Storm Gabrielle.  Bands in the southern and western parts of Gabrielle’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Gabrielle generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north of the tropical storm.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Gabrielle continued to be asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) in the eastern side of Gabrielle’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles in the western side of Tropical Storm Gabrielle.

Tropical Storm Gabrielle will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Gabrielle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level low that is south of Bermuda.  The upper level low will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Gabrielle’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Gabrielle will intensify during the next 24 hours. Gabrielle is likely to strengthen to a hurricane on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Gabrielle will move around the southwestern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Gabrielle toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Gabrielle will pass east of Bermuda on Monday.  Gabrielle could approach the Azores by late next week.

Typhoon Ragasa Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Major Hurricane

Typhoon Ragasa rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane east of northern Luzon on Saturday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Ragasa was located at latitude 17.4°N and longitude 128.4°E which put the center about 475 miles (765 km) east of Aparri, Philippines.  Ragasa was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 957 mb.

Typhoon Ragasa rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane east of northern Luzon on Saturday.  A small circular eye was present at the center of Ragasa’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Typhoon Ragasa.  Storms near the center of Ragasa generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away in all directions from the typhoon.  The removal of large quantities of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Typhoon Ragasa was large.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Ragasa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 275 miles (445 km) in the southern half of Typhoon Ragasa.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 165 miles (265 km) in the northern side of Ragasa’s circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Ragasa was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 20.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 40.9.  Typhoon Ragasa was similar in intensity to Hurricane Rita when Rita hit southwest Louisiana in 2005.  Ragasa was not as large as Rita was.

Typhoon Ragasa will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ragasa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Ragasa will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Ragasa could continue to intensify rapidly.  Typhoon Ragasa could strengthen to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Typhoon Ragasa will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Ragasa toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Typhoon Ragasa will be north of Luzon in 48 hours.

Typhoon Ragasa will bring very strong winds and heavy rain to the Batanes Islands and to the Babuyan Islands.  Ragasa could cause a storm surge of up to 16 feet (5 meters.  Typhoon Ragasa could cause catastrophic damage on those islands.  Typhoon Ragasa will also cause strong winds and heavy rain in northern Luzon.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Typhoon Neoguri continued to strengthen southeast of Japan.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Neoguri was located at latitude 26.5°N and longitude 154.5°E which put the center about 1100 miles (1775 km) east-southeast of Tokyo, Japan.  Neoguri was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.