Category Archives: Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai Intensifies Back to Equivalent of Cat. 4 Hurricane

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Tropical Cyclone Dudzai intensified back to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane as it moved over the South Indian south of Diego Garcia on Thursday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of the Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was located at latitude 16.9°S and longitude 72.4°E which put the center about 675 miles (1090 km) south of Diego Garcia.  Dudzai was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 942 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai rapidly intensified back to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Thursday.  Dudzai started to intensify rapidly after it moved west of cooler water that its winds had mixed to the surface of the ocean earlier this week.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was able to extract more energy from the South Indian Ocean, which cause it to intensify rapidly.

A small circular eye was visible again on satellite images at the center of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving round the core of Dudzai’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Dudzai generated more upper level divergence that pumped more mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of more mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Dudzai increased on Thursday.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Dudzai’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the northern side of Dudzai’s circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was 28.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 41.3.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017.

Tropical Cyclone Duzai will move through an environment favorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Dudzai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level trough that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Dudzai’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai is likely to start to weaken on Friday because of the vertical wind shear.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Dudzai toward the west on during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will remain far to the south of Diego Garcia.  Dudzai could approach Rodrigues during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai Moves West

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Tropical Cyclone Dudzai moved toward the west over the South Indian Ocean on Wednesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of the Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was located at latitude 17.2°S and longitude 75.9°E which put the center about 740 miles (1195 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Dudzai was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai continued to be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon as it moved westward over the South Indian Ocean on Wednesday.  Thunderstorms continued to develop near the center of Dudzai’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.  Storms near the center of Dudzai generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the convergence of the mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure was nearly steady on Wednesday afternoon.

The strongest winds were occurring in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the southern half of Dudzai’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the southern side of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles in the northern half of Dudzai’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move into an environment that will become more favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move farther away from cooler water it mixed to the surface while it moved slowly during the beginning of this week.  Dudzai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.   It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dudzai’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai is likely to intensify on Thursday.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Dudzai toward the west on during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will remain far to the south of Diego Garcia.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai Weakens

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai weakened as it moved over the South Indian Ocean on Tuesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of the Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was located at latitude 17.2°S and longitude 77.5°E which put the center about 775 miles (1255 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Dudzai was moving toward the west at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai weakened on Tuesday.  Dudzai continued to move slowly over cooler water its winds had mixed to the surface of the ocean.  The cooler water contained less energy.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai weakened because it was extracting less energy from the ocean.

Even though Tropical Cyclone Dudzai weakened, its structure remained intact.  There was a very small circular eye at the center of Dudzai’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Dudzai’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Dudzai generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  However, the removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure was increasing.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Dudzai’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Dudzai is 13.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 9.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 23.7.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Hannah when Hannah hit Texas in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean.   The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dudzai’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification.  In addition, the strong winds in the lower levels of Dudzai’s circulation will continue to mix cooler water to the surface of the South Indian Ocean.  The cooler water will transfer less energy into Tropical Cyclone Dudzai. Tropical Cyclone Dudzai is likely to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours due to the upwelling of cooler water.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move around the northeastern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Dudzai toward the west on during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will remain far to the south of Diego Garcia.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai Strengthens to Equivalent of Cat. 4 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai strengthened to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Monday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of the Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was located at latitude 17.1°S and longitude 78.0°E which put the center about 775 miles (1255 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Dudzai was moving toward the south-southeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 948 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai continued to intensify on Monday afternoon.  Dudzai strengthened to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  A small circular eye was present at the center of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Dudzai’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Dudzai generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to continue to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Dudzai’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Dudzai is 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 10.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 35.6.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai is similar in intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017.  Dudzai is slightly smaller than Harvey was.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move through an environment that will become less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, the strong winds in the lower levels of Dudzai’s circulation will mix cooler water to the surface of the South Indian Ocean.  The cooler water will transfer less energy into Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai is likely to weaken during the next 24 hours due to the upwelling of cooler water.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move through a region where the steering winds are weak during the next 12 hours.  Dudzai is likely to move slowly toward the south during that time period.  A high pressure system that is southwest of Dudzai will start to steer it toward the west on Wednesday.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will remain far to the south of Diego Garcia.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean on Sunday night.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of the Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was located at latitude 16.7°S and longitude 77.8°E which put the center about 745 miles (1205 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Dudzai was moving toward the south-southeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai continued to intensify rapidly on Sunday night.  A small circular eye was present at the center of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Dudzai’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Dudzai generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Dudzai’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dudzai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Dudzai could continue to intensify rapidly during the next few hours.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move into a region where the steering winds are weak during the next 24 hours.  Dudzai is likely to move slowly toward the south during the next day or so.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move a little farther away from Diego Garcia.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean on Sunday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of the Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was located at latitude 16.1°S and longitude 77.5°E which put the center about 700 miles (1125 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Dudzai was moving toward the south-southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Sunday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Dudzai’s circulation.  A small circular eye formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Dudzai’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Dudzai generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Dudzai’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dudzai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Dudzai could continue to intensify rapidly during the next few hours.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Dudzai toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move farther away from Diego Garcia.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai Develops Over South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai developed over the South Indian Ocean on Saturday night.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of the Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was located at latitude 15.2°S and longitude 77.2°E which put the center about 625 miles (1005 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Dudzai was moving toward the southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean south-southeast of Diego Garcia strengthened on Saturday night and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai appeared to be intensifying rapidly on Sunday morning.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Dudzai’s circulation.  A small eye appeared to be forming at the center of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Dudzai’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Dudzai generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Dudzai’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dudzai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Dudzai could intensify rapidly.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Dudzai toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move farther away from Diego Garcia.

Tropical Cyclone Jenna Weakens

Tropical Cyclone Jenna weakened on Wednesday as it moved over the South Indian Ocean southwest of the Cocos Islands.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jenna was located at latitude 18.6°S and longitude 90.9°E which put the center about 580 miles (940 km) southwest of the Cocos Islands.  Jenna was moving toward the west-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jenna weakened steadily on Wednesday as it moved southwest of the Cocos Islands.  The southwestern part of an upper level ridge produced strong northwesterly winds that blew toward the top of Jenna’s circulation.  Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear.  The strong upper level winds also blew the tops off of many of the thunderstorms that were part of Tropical Cyclone Jenna.

There were few thunderstorms left in Tropical Cyclone Jenna because of the strong vertical wind shear.  The bands revolving around the center of Jenna’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  There was little upper level divergence.  Mass was still converging in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the convergence of mass caused the surface pressure to increase.

The strong vertical wind shear also caused the distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Jenna to become more asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the southern side of Jenna’s circulation.  Tropical storm force winds extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Jenna.

Tropical Cyclone Jenna will move through an environment very unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Jenna will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will continue to move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will continue to produce strong northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Jenna’s circulation.  Those winds will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Jenna will continue to weaken because of the strong vertical wind shear.

Tropical Cyclone Jenna will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Jenna toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Jenna will continue to move farther away from the Cocos Islands.

Tropical Cyclone Jenna Moves Away From the Cocos Islands

Tropical Cyclone Jenna moved farther away from the Cocos Islands on Tuesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jenna was located at latitude 16.9°S and longitude 93.9°E which put the center about 380 miles (615 km) southwest of the Cocos, Islands.  Jenna was moving toward the southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jenna strengthened as it moved away from the Cocos Islands on Tuesday.  A small eye was visible at the center of Jenna’s circulation earlier on Tuesday.  The eye was no longer visible in the most recent satellite images.  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye earlier today and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the core of Tropical Cyclone Jenna.  Storms near the core of Jenna generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jenna increased on Tuesday.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Jenna’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Jenna.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the western side of Jenna’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Jenna will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Jenna will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Jenna’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Tropical Cyclone Jenna will weaken when the vertical wind shear increases.

Tropical Cyclone Jenna will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is over the eastern part of the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Jenna toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Jenna will continue to move farther away from the Cocos Islands.

Tropical Cyclone Jenna Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Jenna rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean on Monday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jenna was located at latitude 14.8°S and longitude 95.8°E which put the center about 160 miles (260 km) south-southwest of the Cocos, Islands.  Jenna was moving toward the south-southwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology cancelled the Warning for the Cocos Islands when Tropical Cyclone Jenna moved away from the islands.

Tropical Cyclone Jenna rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Monday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Jenna’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Jenna.  Storms near the center of Jenna generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jenna was small.  The strongest winds were occurring in the northwestern quadrant of Jenna’s circulation.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the northwestern quadrant of Tropical Cyclone Jenna.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Jenna’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Jenna will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Jenna will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and the will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Jenna will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jenna will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is over the eastern part of the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Jenna toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Jenna will continue to move farther away from the Cocos Islands.