Category Archives: South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone Forms near Vanuatu

Tropical Cyclone 11P formed near Vanuatu on Tuesday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 11P was located at latitude 19.8°S and longitude 168.9°E which put it about 235 miles (380 km) northeast of Noumea, New Caledonia. Tropical Cyclone 11P was moving toward the south-southeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A low pressure system near the island of Tanna strengthened to a tropical cyclone on Tuesday night. More thunderstorms developed in bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone 11P. Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and low clouds. Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone 11P will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Tropical Cyclone 11P will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge centered east of New Caledonia. The ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but it will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone 11P is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 11P will move around the western side of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the tropical cyclone toward the south-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 11P will move slowly away from Vanuatu. The tropical cyclone will be near the Loyalty Islands in 24 hours. The center could pass near Mare. Tropical Cyclone 11P will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Ouvea, Lifou and Mare. The center of Tropical Cyclone could reach southern New Caledonia within 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Ana Strengthens over Mozambique Channel

Tropical Cyclone Ana strengthened over the Mozambique Channel on Sunday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ana was located at latitude 15.8°S and longitude 41.5°E which put it about 110 miles (175 km) east-northeast of Angoche, Mozambique. Ana was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

A former tropical depression strengthened to Tropical Cyclone Ana over the Mozambique Channel on Sunday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern side of the center of Ana’s circulation on Sunday evening. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern and western parts of Ana. Bands in the southeastern part of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The air in that part of Tropical Cyclone Ana had passed over Madagascar and may have been sinking. Storms near the center of Ana generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Ana will move through an environment favorable for intensification for the next few hours. Ana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the northwestern part of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Ana could get stronger before it reaches the coast of Mozambique on Monday.

Tropical Cyclone Ana will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ana toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Ana could make landfall on the coast of Mozambique near Angoche in a few hours. Ana will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to northern Mozambique, southern Malawi and northern Zimbabwe. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Ana could cause a storms surge of up to six feet (2 meters) along the northern coast of Mozambique.

Tropical Cyclone Tiffany Makes Landfall near Port Roper

Tropical Cyclone Tiffany made landfall near Port Roper, Australia on Tuesday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Tiffany was located at latitude 14.9°S and longitude 134.7°E which put it about 45 miles (75 km) west of Port Roper, Australia. Tiffany was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Tiffany made landfall near Port Roper on the west coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria on Tuesday night. Tiffany was the equivalent of a strong tropical storm at the time of landfall. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were dropping heavy rain over the region west of Port Roper. A Flood Watch was in effect for many of the rivers in the area.

Tropical Cyclone Tiffany will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over Australia. The high pressure system will steer Tiffany toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Tiffany will move across the northern part of the Northern Territory. The center of Tiffany will pass near Ngukurr, Mataranka, Barunga and Katherine. Tropical Cyclone Tiffany will weaken gradually as it moves farther inland, but it will continue to drop heavy rain over the northern part of the Northern Territory. Locally heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some location.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Cody was moving farther southwest of Fiji. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Cody was located at latitude 23.1°S and longitude 174.1°E which put it about 435 miles (705 km) southwest of Suva, Fiji. Cody was moving toward the south at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Tiffany Strengthens over Gulf of Carpentaria

Tropical Cyclone Tiffany strengthened over the Gulf of Carpentaria on Tuesday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Tiffany was located at latitude 15.2°S and longitude 137.4°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) southeast of Groote Eylandt, Australia. Tiffany was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

A Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast of the Northern Territory from Nhulunbuy to the border with Queensland. The Warning included Groote Eylandt, Port Roper and Port McArthur.

Tropical Cyclone Tiffany exhibited greater organization as it strengthened on Tuesday morning. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern side of the center of circulation and a partial eyewall appeared to be developing. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tiffany’s circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Tiffany.

Tropical Cyclone Tiffany will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Tiffany will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 31˚C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over eastern Australia. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tiffany’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear and the wind shear will inhibit intensification. However, Tropical Cyclone Tiffany will intensify over the warm water in the Gulf of Carpentaria during the next 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Tiffany will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over Australia during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Tiffany toward west. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Tiffany will pass south of Groote Eylandt during the next few hours. Tiffany will make landfall on the coast of the Northern Territory near Port Roper in about 12 hours. Tropical Cyclone Tiffany will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the eastern part of the Northern Territory. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Flood Watches have been issued for rivers in the eastern part of the Northern Territory.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Cody was continued to churn southwest of Fiji. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Cody was located at latitude 21.5°S and longitude 173.5°E which put it about 390 miles (625 km) southwest of Suva, Fiji. Cody was moving toward the south-southeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Tiffany Crosses Cape York Peninsula

Tropical Cyclone Tiffany crossed the Cape York Peninsula on Monday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Tiffany was located at latitude 14.8°S and longitude 140.9°E which put it about 55 miles (90 km) west of Pormpuraaw, Australia. Tiffany was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A Warning was in effect for Groote Eylandt. A Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast of the Northern Territory from Nhulunbuy to the border with Queensland. The Watch included Numbalwar, Port Roper and Port McArthur.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Tiffany emerged over the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria near Pormpuraaw on Monday after it moved westward across the Cape York Peninsula. New thunderstorms were forming in bands in the western and northern parts of Tiffany’s circulation. Bands in the eastern and southern parts of the circulation were still over land and those bands contained fewer thunderstorms. The strongest winds were occurring in the bands over the Gulf of Carpentaria. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Tiffany.

Tropical Cyclone Tiffany will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Tiffany will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 31˚C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over eastern Australia. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tiffany’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear and the wind shear will inhibit intensification. However, Tropical Cyclone Tiffany will intensify over the warm water in the Gulf of Carpentaria. Tiffany could intensify rapidly once more of the circulation moves over water and it could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Tiffany will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over Australia during the next 36 hours. The high pressure system will steer Tiffany toward west. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Tiffany could approach Groote Eylandt in 24 hours. Tiffany could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it approaches Groote Eylandt.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Cody was continued to meander southwest of Fiji. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Cody was located at latitude 20.9°S and longitude 174.1°E which put it about 330 miles (535 km) southwest of Suva, Fiji. Cody was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Tiffany Brings Wind and Rain to Northern Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Tiffany brought wind and rain to northern Queensland on Sunday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Tiffany was located at latitude 14.3°S and longitude 144.0°E which put it about 70 miles (110 km) east-southeast of Coen, Australia. Tiffany was moving toward the west-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

Warnings were in effect for the east coast of the Cape York Peninsula from Lockhart River to Cape Flattery and for the west coast of the Cape York Peninsula from Weipa to Kowanyama. A Watch was issued for the west coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria from Nhulunbuy to the border between the Northern Territory and Queensland. The Watch included Groote Eylandt.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Tiffany made landfall on the east coast of Queensland east-southeast of Coen on Sunday night. Tiffany was the equivalent of a strong tropical storm at the time of landfall. Bands of showers and thunderstorms in the western half of Tiffany’s circulation brought gusty winds to northern Queensland. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation. Tropical Cyclone Tiffany was also dropping locally heavy rain over parts of northern Queensland. A Minor Flood Warning was issued for the Daintree River and a Flood Warning was issued for the Mossman River.

Tropical Cyclone Tiffany will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over Australia. The high pressure system will steer Tiffany toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Tiffany will move across the Cape York Peninsula during the next 18 hours. Tiffany will weaken while it moves over land. In 18 hours the center of Tropical Cyclone Tiffany will move over the Gulf of Carpentaria. The Sea Surface Temperatures are near 31˚C in the Gulf of Carpentaria. So, Tiffany could strengthen when it moves back over water. An upper level ridge over Australia will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tiffany’s circulation. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear and they will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Cyclone Tiffany is forecast to intensify after it moves over the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Cody was located southwest of Fiji. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone 05P was located at latitude 20.1°S and longitude 176.1°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) west-southwest of Tavuki, Fiji. Cody was moving toward the west-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Tiffany Strengthens East of Cape York Peninsula

Tropical Cyclone Tiffany strengthened east of the Cape York Peninsula on Sunday morning. At 7:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Tiffany was located at latitude 13.9°S and longitude 145.9°E which put it about 120 miles (190 km) north-northeast of Cooktown, Australia. Tropical Cyclone was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (14 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

A Warning was in effect for the portion of the east coast of the Cape York Peninsula from Cape Grenville to Cape Tribulation. A Watch was in effect for the west coast of the Cape York Peninsula from Gilbert River Mouth to Mapoon.

A former Tropical Low east of the Cape York Peninsula strengthened quickly on Sunday morning and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Tiffany. More Thunderstorms developed near the center of Tiffany’s circulation. More thunderstorms also formed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Tiffany. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Tiffany.

Tropical Cyclone Tiffany will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Tiffany will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the northwestern part of an upper level ridge centered east of Australia. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the Tropical Low’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. The center of Tropical Cyclone Tiffany will pass near Cape Melville in 12 hours. If some of the circulation on the southern side of Tiffany passes over land, that could inhibit intensification.

Tropical Cyclone Tiffany will move north of a high pressure system over Australia. The high pressure system will steer Tiffany toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Tiffany will pass just north of Cape Melville in 12 hours. Tiffany will make landfall on the east coast of the Cape York Peninsula east of Coen within 24 hours. Tropical Cyclone Tiffany will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to northern Queensland. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone 05P was spinning between Fiji and Vanuatu. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone 05P was located at latitude 18.9°S and longitude 176.3°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) west of Tavuki, Fiji. Tropical Cyclone 05P was moving toward the east-southeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Two Tropical Lows Form over South Pacific

Two tropical lows formed over the South Pacific Ocean on Saturday morning. The first Tropical Low formed over the Coral Sea east of the Cape York Peninsula. At 7:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of that Tropical Low was located at latitude 13.0°S and longitude 147.8°E which put it about 240 miles (350 km) northeast of Cooktown, Australia. The Tropical Low was nearly stationary. The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A well defined low level center of circulation formed in a small low pressure system over the Coral Sea on Saturday morning and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as a Tropical Low. A Watch was issued for the portion of the east coast of the Cape York Peninsula from Cape Grenville to Cape Tribulation. The distribution of thunderstorms around the Tropical Low was asymmetrical. The distribution of thunderstorms around the Tropical Low was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northwestern quadrant of the circulation. Bands in other parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the Tropical Low.

The Tropical Low will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The Tropical Low will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the northwestern part of an upper level ridge centered east of Australia. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the Tropical Low’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear and the shear will inhibit intensification. The Tropical Low could intensify gradually during the next 24 hours.

The Tropical Low will move north of a high pressure system centered east of Australia. The high pressure system will steer the Tropical Low toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipate track the Tropical Low could approach the eastern Cape York Peninsula between Lockhart River and Cooktown in 36 hours. It could be a named tropical cyclone when it approaches the coast.

The second Tropical Low developed over the South Pacific Ocean west of Fiji. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of the second Tropical Low was located at latitude 18.6°S and longitude 173.3°E which put it about 320 miles (515 km) west-southwest of Nadi, Fiji. That Tropical Low was moving toward the southeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A distinct low level center of circulation developed in a large low pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean west of Fiji and the Fiji Meteorological Service designated the system as a tropical low. The circulation around the second Tropical Low was much larger than the one over the Coral Sea, but the distribution of thunderstorms was also asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands north and east of the center of circulation. Bands south and west of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from Tropical Low.

The second Tropical Low will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The Tropical Low will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. The Tropical Low is likely to intensify into a named tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.

The second Tropical Low will be in an area where the steering currents are weak during the next 24 hours. It is likely to meander slowly over the South Pacific Ocean between Fiji and Vanuatu during the next day or so.

Tropical Cyclone Seth Speeds South

Tropical Cyclone Seth sped toward the south over the Coral Sea east of Australia on Saturday night. At 7:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Seth was located at latitude 25.8°S and longitude 159.0°E which put it about 385 miles (620 km) east-northeast of Brisbane, Australia. Seth was moving toward the south at 25 m.p.h. (41 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

An upper level trough over eastern Australia and an upper level ridge east of the Coral Sea were combining to steer Tropical Cyclone Seth quickly toward the south on Saturday night. The structure of Seth’s circulation was beginning to resemble a subtropical cyclone. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands south of the center of circulation. Bands in the northern half of Tropical Cyclone Seth consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The upper level trough and upper level ridge were producing strong northerly winds that were blowing toward the top of Seth’s circulation. Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear. Drier air was wrapping around the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Seth. The strong vertical wind shear and drier air were causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. The distribution of winds around Seth was also asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 205 miles (335 km) in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Seth. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (150 km) in the northern half of Seth’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Seth will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Seth will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26˚C. However, the upper level trough and upper level ridge will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. Drier air in the northern half of Seth’s circulation will inhibit the formation of thunderstorms. Tropical Cyclone Seth could make a transition to a subtropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Seth could maintain its intensity during the transition, but it is likely to weaken during the next few days.

The upper level trough will steer Tropical Cyclone Seth quickly toward the south during the next 12 hours. The upper trough could make a transition to a cutoff low during the next day or so. The center of Seth could move under the cutoff low, which would cause Seth to move more slowly. The cutoff low and Tropical Cyclone Seth could drift west toward Australia during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Seth could move slowly toward Australia as a subtropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Seth Spins Northeast of Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone Seth was spinning northeast of Brisbane, Australia on Friday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Seth was located at latitude 22.6°S and longitude 157.7°E which put it about 465 miles (745 km) northeast of Brisbane, Australia. Seth was moving toward the southeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Seth strengthened on Friday morning, but then it weakened later in the day. An upper level ridge centered northeast of Australia and an upper level trough over eastern Australia were interacting to produce strong northwesterly winds over the Coral Sea on Friday night. Those winds were blowing toward the top of Seth’s circulation and they were causing moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear was causing an asymmetric distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone Seth. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands southeast of the center of Seth. Bands in the northwestern half of the tropical cyclone consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 155 miles (250 km) in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Seth. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the northern half of the circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Seth will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Seth will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. However, the upper level trough over eastern Australia and the upper level ridge over the Coral Sea will continue to produce strong northwesterly winds. Those winds will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The wind shear is likely to prevent Tropical Cyclone Seth from intensifying during the next 24 hours. There is a chance that the upper level winds could weaken in 24 hours, which might allow Seth to strengthen at that time.

The upper level trough and ridge will steer Tropical Cyclone Seth toward the south-southeast during the next 24 hours. The upper level trough could evolve into a cutoff low, which could pull Seth back toward the west during the second half of the weekend. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Seth could be east of Brisbane in 36 hours.