Monthly Archives: September 2022

Tropical Depression Forms South of Baja California

Tropical Depression Eleven-E formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Thursday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located at latitude 18.9°N and longitude 110.5°W which put it about 280 miles (450 km) south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. The tropical depression was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of a low pressure system south of Baja California on Thursday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Eleven-E. The circulation around Tropical Depression Eleven-E was large. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of the tropical depression. Thunderstorms that develop near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Eleven-E will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will strengthen to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours. The large circulation around the tropical depression could prevent it from intensifying quickly.

Tropical Depression Eleven-E will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over northern Mexico. The high pressure system will steer the tropical depression toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Eleven-E will move parallel to the southwest coast of Baja California.

Tropical Depression Five Strengthens to Tropical Storm Danielle

Former Tropical Depression Five strengthened to Tropical Storm Danielle west of the Azores on Thursday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Danielle was located at latitude 38.1°N and longitude 44.7°W which put it about 960 miles (1545 km) west of the Azores. Danielle was moving toward the east at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1012 mb.

The circulation around former Tropical Depression Five organized quickly on Thursday morning and the National Hurricane Center upgraded it to Tropical Storm Danielle. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Danielle’s circulation and an eye was apparent on visible and microwave satellite images. The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Storm Danielle. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Danielle.

Tropical Storm Danielle will be in an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Danielle will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are 27˚C. It will be in a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Danielle will intensify during the next 48 hours. Danielle could intensify to a hurricane during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Danielle will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next 48 hours. Danielle is likely to meander slowly over the North Atlantic. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Danielle will remain far to the west of the Azores during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Depression Five Forms West of the Azores

Tropical Depression Five formed over the North Atlantic Ocean west of the Azores on Thursday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Five was located at latitude 38.1°N and longitude 45.0°W which put it about 975 miles (1575 km) west of the Azores. The tropical depression was moving toward the east-northeast at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1013 mb.

A low pressure system over the North Atlantic west of the Azores exhibited the characteristics of a tropical cyclone on Thursday morning and the National Hurricane Center classified the system as Tropical Depression Five. Tropical Depression Five developed from an extratropical cyclone that made a transition to a tropical cyclone. The fronts near the former extratropical cyclone weakened and more thunderstorms formed near the center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms developed and began to revolve around the center. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Five will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few days. The tropical depression will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are 27˚C. It will be in a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Depression Five will intensify during the next 48 hours. It is likely to strengthen to a tropical storm within 12 hours. Tropical Depression Five could intensify to a hurricane during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Depression Five will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next 48 hours. It is likely to meander slowly. On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Five will remain far to the west of the Azores during the next 48 hours.

Typhoon Hinnamnor Strengthens Back to Equivalent of Cat. 5 Hurricane

Typhoon Hinnamnor strengthened back to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson southeast of the southern Ryukyu Islands on Wednesday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Hinnamnor was located at latitude 22.4°N and longitude 125.7°E which put it about 165 miles (270 km) southeast of Ishigaki, Japan. Hinnamnor was moving toward the south-southwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (315 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 915 mb.

Typhoon Hinnamnor intensified back to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane after the completion of an eyewall replacement cycle southeast of the southern Ryukyu Islands. A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) was at the center of Hinnamnor. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Hinnamnor. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the typhoon.

The circulation around Typhoon Hinnamnor began to contract again after the completion of the eyewall replacement cycle. Winds to typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Hinnamnor. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Hinnamnor was 35.0. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 15.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 50.1. Hinnamnor was capable of causing regional catastrophic damage.

Typhoon Hinnamnor will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong typhoon during the next 24 hours. Hinnamnor will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are 30˚C. It will move through region where the upper level winds are weak and there there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Hinnamnor could maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours unless concentric eyewalls form again.

Typhoon Hinnamnor will finish absorbing the circulation of Tropical Depression 13W that is located southeast of Okinawa during the next 24 hours. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression 13W was located at at latitude 24.5°N and longitude 129.0°E which put it about 185 miles (300 km) southeast of Okinawa. The tropical depression was moving toward the northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Typhoon Hinnamnor will moved toward the southwest during the next 24 hours as it finishes the absorption of Tropical Depression 13W. On its anticipated track, Typhoon Hinnamnor will move south of the southern Ryukyu Islands during the next 24 hours. Hinnamnor could be in an area where the steering winds are weak after it absorbs the tropical depression. Typhoon Hinnamnor could start to move toward the north back toward the southern Ryukyu Islands on Friday.