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Typhoon Hinnamnor Strengthens Back to Equivalent of Cat. 5 Hurricane

Typhoon Hinnamnor strengthened back to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson southeast of the southern Ryukyu Islands on Wednesday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Hinnamnor was located at latitude 22.4°N and longitude 125.7°E which put it about 165 miles (270 km) southeast of Ishigaki, Japan. Hinnamnor was moving toward the south-southwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (315 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 915 mb.

Typhoon Hinnamnor intensified back to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane after the completion of an eyewall replacement cycle southeast of the southern Ryukyu Islands. A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) was at the center of Hinnamnor. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Hinnamnor. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the typhoon.

The circulation around Typhoon Hinnamnor began to contract again after the completion of the eyewall replacement cycle. Winds to typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Hinnamnor. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Hinnamnor was 35.0. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 15.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 50.1. Hinnamnor was capable of causing regional catastrophic damage.

Typhoon Hinnamnor will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong typhoon during the next 24 hours. Hinnamnor will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are 30˚C. It will move through region where the upper level winds are weak and there there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Hinnamnor could maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours unless concentric eyewalls form again.

Typhoon Hinnamnor will finish absorbing the circulation of Tropical Depression 13W that is located southeast of Okinawa during the next 24 hours. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression 13W was located at at latitude 24.5°N and longitude 129.0°E which put it about 185 miles (300 km) southeast of Okinawa. The tropical depression was moving toward the northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Typhoon Hinnamnor will moved toward the southwest during the next 24 hours as it finishes the absorption of Tropical Depression 13W. On its anticipated track, Typhoon Hinnamnor will move south of the southern Ryukyu Islands during the next 24 hours. Hinnamnor could be in an area where the steering winds are weak after it absorbs the tropical depression. Typhoon Hinnamnor could start to move toward the north back toward the southern Ryukyu Islands on Friday.

Typhoon Hinnamnor Moves South of Okinawa

Typhoon Hinnamnor moved south of Okinawa on Wednesday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Hinnamnor was located at latitude 24.4°N and longitude 127.3°E which put it about 115 miles (185 km) south of Okinawa. Hinnamnor was moving toward the west-southwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 929 mb.

Concentric eyewalls developed at the center of Typhoon Hinnamnor on Tuesday night. The original eye with a diameter of 10 miles (16 km) was still present at the center of Hinnamnor. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the original eye and eyewall. An outer eye with a diameter of 60 miles (95 km) surrounded the original eye and eyewall. Typhoon Hinnamnor weakened slightly as the winds in the inner eyewall decreased slightly. The core of Hinnamnor still generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.

The size of the circulation around Typhoon Hinnamnor increased when the concentric eyewalls developed. Winds to typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Hinnamnor. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Hinnamnor was 29.9. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 43.3. Hinnamnor was capable of causing regional severe damage.

Typhoon Hinnamnor will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong typhoon during the next 24 hours. Hinnamnor will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are 30˚C. It will move through region where the winds at all levels of the troposphere are blowing from the east. Since the winds at different levels are blowing from the same direction, there will be little vertical wind shear. Even though it will be in a favorable environment, Typhoon Hinnamnor will weaken as the inner eyewall weakens because of the eyewall replacement cycle. More of the low level inflow will become concentrated in the outer eyewall. Hinnamnor could strengthen again after the eyewall replacement cycle is completed.

Typhoon Hinnamnor will interact with Tropical Depression 13W that is located southeast of Okinawa during the next 24 hours. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday morning center of Tropical Depression 13W was located at at latitude 22.6°N and longitude 131.6°E which put it about 400 miles (640 km) southeast of Okinawa. The tropical depression was moving toward the north-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Typhoon Hinnamnor will moved toward the southwest during the next 24 hours as it moves around the western side of Tropical Depression 13W. On its anticipated track, Typhoon Hinnamnor will move south of the southern Ryukyu Islands. The much stronger circulation around Typhoon Hinnamnor will eventually absorb the weaker tropical depression. Hinnamnor could be in an area where the steering winds are weak after it absorbs the tropical depression. Typhoon Hinnamnor could meander near the southern Ryukyu Islands later this week.

Tropical Storm Lupit Brings Rain to Japan

Tropical Storm Lupit brought rain to Japan on Sunday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Lupit was located at latitude 32.3°N and longitude 131.6°E which put it about 20 miles (30 km) southwest of Miyazaki, Japan. Lupit was moving toward the east-northeast at 26 m.p.h. (42 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Tropical Storm Lupit made landfall on the coast of Kyushu near Kagoshima on Sunday. Lupit was being steered quickly toward the east-northeast by an upper level trough near the Korean Peninsula. The trough was producing strong southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Lupit’s circulation. Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear and they were affecting the distribution of rain in Tropical Storm Lupit. Most of the heavier rain was falling in bands north and east of the center of Lupit. The heavier rain was falling over Shikoku, northern Kyushu and southwestern Honshu. Bands south and west of the center of circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The strongest winds were occurring in the southern half of Tropical Storm Lupit. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) on the south side of Lupit. The winds in the northern half of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

The trough near the Korean Peninsula will steer Tropical Storm Lupit quickly toward the northeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Lupit will move over the southern Sea of Japan. The center of Tropcial Storm Lupit could be near northern Honshu in 36 hours. Rain will spread over the rest of Honshu and Hokkaido during the next two days. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Lupit will move through an environment only marginally favorable for intensification. Lupit will move over water in the Sea of Japan where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. However, the upper level trough will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The lower part of Lupit’s circulation will also be disrupted while it passes over land. Tropical Storm Lupit is not likely to strengthen significantly and it could weaken if the center does not move over the Sea of Japan.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Mirinae was moving eastward away from Japan. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Mirinae was located at latitude 36.6°N and longitude 144.7°E which put it about 230 miles (370 km) east-northeast of Tokyo, Japan. Mirinae was moving toward the northeast at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Tropical Storm Lupit Drops Very Heavy Rain on Taiwan

Tropical Storm Lupit dropped very heavy rain on Taiwan on Friday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Lupit was located at latitude 25.1°N and longitude 120.5°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) west of Taipei, Taiwan. Lupit was moving toward the east at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Bands of rain on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Lupit dropped very heavy rain over much of Taiwan on Friday. Radar estimates of the rainfall by Taiwan’s Central Weather Bureau were as high as two feet (0.6 meters) in some locations. Southerly and southeasterly winds on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Lupit were pushing air up the slopes of mountains on Taiwan. The enhanced rising motion was contributing to prolonged periods of very heavy rain. The very heavy rainfall was creating a very high danger of widespread flash floods.

Tropical Storm Lupit began to strengthen slowly after the center of circulation moved over the Taiwan Strait. The circulation around Lupit was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms and highest wind speeds were in bands on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Lupit. Bands in the western half of Lupit consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Northerly winds circulating around the western side of the tropical storm were transporting drier air into the western half of Lupit. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles on the eastern side of Lupit. The in the western side of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Lupit will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high will steer Lupit toward the east during the next 12 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Lupit could be near Taipei in six hours. Lupit will continue to drop very heavy rain over Taiwan during the next 12 hours and the risk of flash floods will be very high. The high pressure system will steer Tropical Storm Lupit toward the northeast during the weekend. Lupit could also bring gusty winds and heavy rain to portions of the Ryukyu Islands.

Tropical Storm Lupit will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next several days. Lupit will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the northeastern part of an upper level ridge. The upper level winds are weaker in that part of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Lupit is likely to intensify during the weekend unless the center passes over northern Taiwan. If the center crosses northern Taiwan, then mountains will disrupt the low level circulation.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Mirinae was spinning south of Japan and Tropical Storm Nida was speeding away to the east of Japan. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Mirinae was located at latitude 29.0°N and longitude 137.3°E which put it about 480 miles (775 km) south-southwest of Tokyo, Japan. Mirinae was moving toward the east-northeast at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Nide was located at latitude 38.1°N and longitude 156.6°E which put it about 775 miles (1250 km) east-southeast of Misawa, Japan. Nida was moving toward the east-northeast at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Tropical Storms Lupit, Mirinae and Nida Spin over Active West Pacific

Tropical Storms Lupit, Mirinae and Nida were spinning over an active Western North Pacific Ocean on Thursday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Lupit was located at latitude 23.8°N and longitude 117.3°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) southeast of Yunxiao, China. Lupit was moving toward the northeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Tropical Storm Lupit was dropping heavy rain along the coast of Fujian province. A band of heavy rain on the eastern periphery of Lupit was just west of Taiwan. Tropical Storm Lupit is forecast to move northeast along the east coast of China during the next 24 hours. Lupit is likely to weaken slowly while the center is near the coast. Tropical Storm Lupit could strengthen during the weekend if the center moves farther over the ocean.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Mirinae was located at latitude 27.1°N and longitude 129.1°E which put it about 70 miles (110 km) east-northeast of Okinawa. Mirinae was moving toward the east-northeast at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Tropical Storm Mirinae is forecast to move toward the northeast and to strengthen. Mirinae could be south of Japan by this weekend. Weather conditions in Okinawa and the other Ryukyu Islands should improve when Tropical Storm Mirinae moves farther away.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Nida was located at latitude 33.9°N and longitude 148.2°E which put it about 490 miles (790 km) east-southeast of Tokyo. Nida was moving toward the north-northeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb. Westerly winds in the middle latitudes are forecast to carry Tropical Storm Nida farther away from Japan during the next few days.

Tropical Storm Lupit Makes Landfall in Eastern China

Tropical Storm Lupit made landfall on the coast of eastern China just to the south of Shantou on Wednesday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Lupit was located at latitude 23.3°N and longitude 116.9°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) south-southeast of Shantou, China. Lupit was moving toward the north at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

Tropical Storm Lupit made landfall on the northeastern part of the coast of Guangdong province south of Shantou and east of Chaoyang. Lupit strengthened before landfall and the maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Tropical Storm Lupit. The strongest winds were occurring in the parts of Lupit’s circulation that were over water. Strong thunderstorms developed recently near the center of Tropical Storm Lupit. Those thunderstorms were producing gusty winds and they were dropping locally heavy rain.

Tropical Storm Lupit will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Lupit toward the northwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Lupit will move along the east coast of China. The center of Lupit could pass near Xiamen in about 24 hours. Tropical Storm Lupit will weaken while the center is over land. However, Lupit could strengthen again if the center moves over the East China Sea. Tropical Storm Lupit will continue to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the northeast coast of Guangdong province and the coastal part of Fujian province.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression 14W was passing west of Okinawa and Tropical Storm 15W developed southeast of Japan. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression 14W was located at latitude 26.5°N and longitude 126.5°E which put it about 90 miles (145 km) west of Okinawa. The depression was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm 15W was located at latitude 32.1°N and longitude 147.4°E which put it about 510 miles (825 km) southeast of Tokyo,, Japan. The tropical storm was moving toward the north at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Tropical Storm Lupit Forms Southeast of Hong Kong

Tropical Storm Lupit formed southeast of Hong Kong on Tuesday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Lupit was located at latitude 21.5°N and longitude 115.9°E which put it about 115 miles (185 km) southeast of Hong Kong. Lupit was moving toward the east-northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system southeast of Hong Kong exhibited more organization on Tuesday night and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Lupit. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Lupit. The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Storm Lupit was asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of Lupit. Bands on the northern side of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Tropical Storm Lupit was under the southern part of an upper level ridge over eastern China. The ridge was producing northeasterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Lupit’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and they were the reason for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Storm Lupit will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Lupit will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. The upper level ridge over eastern China will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear which will inhibit intensification. The wind shear may not be strong enough to prevent intensification and Tropical Storm Lupit could strengthen during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Lupit will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high will steer Lupit toward the northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Lupit could be over the southern Taiwan Strait southeast of Shantou, China in 24 hours. Lupit could produce gusty winds and locally heavy rain over portions of the coast of Eastern China.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, a tropical depression formed east of Taiwan. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of the tropical depression was located at latitude 24.0°N and longitude 125.9°E which put it about 190 miles (305 km) southwest of Okinawa. The tropical depression was moving toward the east-northeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb. The depression is forecast to move toward the northeast and to strengthen. It could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to some of the Ryukyu Islands.

Tropical Storm Noul Brings Wind and Rain to Central Vietnam

Tropical Storm Noul brought wind and rain to central Vietnam on Thursday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Noul was located at latitude 16.7°N and longitude 107.2°E which put it about 45 miles (75 km) north-northwest of Da Nang, Vietnam.  Noul was moving toward the west at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

The distribution of thunderstorms and rain around Tropical Storm Noul was asymmetrical.  The strongest thunderstorms and the heaviest rain were on the western side of Noul.  Tropical Storm Noul was moving under the southern part of a large upper level ridge over Asia and the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge was producing strong easterly winds which were blowing toward the top of Noul.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and they were also the cause of the asymmetrical distribution of rainfall.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation.

The upper level ridge will steer Tropical Storm Noul quickly toward the west.  Noul will across central Vietnam and southern Laos on Friday.  Tropical Storm Noul will drop locally heavy rain over parts of central Vietnam, southern Laos and northeastern Thailand.  Flash floods could occur in some locations.

Tropical Storm Noul Moves Toward Vietnam

Tropical Storm Noul moved toward Vietnam on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Noul was located at latitude 14.8°N and longitude 113.8°E which put it about 420 miles (675 km) east-southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam.  Noul was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Storm Noul moved under the southern portion of a large upper level ridge over Asia and the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge produced strong easterly winds which blew toward the top of Noul’s circulation.  Those winds caused moderate vertical wind shear and they contributed to an asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Noul.  The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in the western half of Noul.  Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the west of the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Noul will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Noul will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30.5°C.  The upper level ridge will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Storm Noul could strengthen if the wind shear decreases.

The upper level ridge will steer Tropical Storm Noul toward the west-north west during the next day or so.  On its anticipated track Noul will approach the coast of central Vietnam in about 24 hours.  Tropical Storm Noul will bring gusty winds and rain to central Vietnam on Friday.

Tropical Storm Noul Forms West of the Philippines

Tropical Storm Noul formed over the South China Sea west of the Philippines on Tuesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Noul was located at latitude 12.9°N and longitude 118.0°E which put it about 215 miles (345 km) southwest of Manila, Philippines.  Noul was moving toward the west-northwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Noul was still organizing on Tuesday afternoon.  More thunderstorms were developing near the center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Noul.  Storms near the center started to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the west of the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Noul will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours.  Noul will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30.5°C.  It will move south of an upper level ridge over the South China Sea.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Noul.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear, but they will not be strong enough to prevent Noul from intensifying.  Tropical Storm Noul could strengthen into a typhoon within 48 hours.

Tropical Storm Noul will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Noul toward the west-northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Noul could approach the coast of Vietnam in about 60 hours.  It is likely to be a typhoon when it nears Vietnam.