Monthly Archives: October 2022

Tropical Storm Karl Strengthens over Southwest Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Storm Karl strengthened over the southwest Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday afternoon. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located at latitude 22.0°N and longitude 94.5°W which put it about 220 miles (355 km) north-northeast of Veracruz, Mexico. Karl was moving toward the north at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Tuxpan to Frontera, Mexico.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance plane found that Tropical Storm Karl was stronger on Wednesday afternoon. Even though Tropical Storm Karl was stronger, the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in eastern half of Karl’s circulation. Bands in the western half of Karl consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Karl’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Karl will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Karl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the southern Gulf of Mexico. The western part of the ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Karl’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Karl has been moving slowly. The winds near the surface are mixing cooler water to the surface of the Gulf Of Mexico. Tropical Storm Karl could strengthen during the next 18 hours, unless too much cooler water mixes to the surface. The upper level winds are forecast to get stronger later on Thursday. More vertical wind shear is likely to cause Karl to weaken.

Tropical Storm Karl will move around the western part of a high pressure system that extends over the Gulf of Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Karl toward the north during the next 12 hours. The high pressure system is forecast to strengthen on Thursday. When the high pressure system strengthens, it will push Karl back toward the south. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Karl will move back toward the coast of Mexico on Friday.

Tropical Storm Karl Forms over Southwest Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Storm Karl formed over the Southwest Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located at latitude 19.6°N and longitude 94.4°W which put it about 120 miles (195 km) east-northeast of Veracruz, Mexico. Karl was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Cabo Rojo to Puerto Veracruz, Mexico.

A portion of the northern side of the circulation around former Hurricane Julia moved over the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Satellite images indicated that a distinct circulation developed over the Bay of Campeche. After an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane found sustained winds to tropical storm force, the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Karl. The government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the coast.

Thunderstorms developed in the inner end of a band that wrapped around the northeastern part of the center of Tropical Storm Karl. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Karl’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Karl will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Karl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the center of an upper level ridge over the southern Gulf of Mexico. The upper level winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Karl is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours. Karl will move closer to the western side of the upper level ridge in a day or so. Southwesterly winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase when Tropical Storm Karl moves under the western part of the upper level ridge.

Tropical Storm Karl will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that extends over the Gulf of Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Karl toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Karl will move toward the east coast of Mexico. The high pressure system could push Karl toward the southwest on Thursday.

Tropical Storm Julia Crosses Nicaragua to the Eastern North Pacific

Former Hurricane Julia moved across Nicaragua to the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Sunday. Julia weakened to a tropical storm as it was moving across Nicaragua. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Julia was located at latitude 12.8°N and longitude 88.1°W which put it about 95 miles (155 km) southeast of San Salvador, El Salvador. Julia was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Sandino, Nicaragua to the border with Honduras. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Pacific coast of Honduras and the entire coast of El Salvador. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Pacific coast of Guatemala.

Former Hurricane Julia weakened to a tropical storm as it moved across Nicaragua on Sunday. The center of Tropical Storm Julia emerged over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Nicaragua late on Sunday afternoon. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in a band that wrapped around the southern and eastern sides of the center of Julia’s circulation. Bands in other parts of Tropical Storm Julia consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. About half of Julia’s circulation was still over land. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Julia will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Julia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over Central America. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, nearly half of the circulation of Tropical Storm Julia will still be over land. More friction will affect the part of the circulation over land, and that will inhibit intensification. Tropical Storm Julia could strengthen a little during the next 24 hours, if the center of circulation moves farther out over the Eastern North Pacific.

Tropical Storm Julia will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Julia toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours, On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Julia will move near the coast of El Salvador on Monday. Julia will bring gusty winds to the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras and El Salvador. Tropical Storm Julia could continue to drop heavy rain over parts of northern Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Hurricane Julia Hits Nicaragua

Hurricane Julia hit the coast of Nicaragua early on Sunday. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Julia was located at latitude 12.4°N and longitude 84.6°W which put it about 60 miles (95 km) west-northwest of Bluefields, Nicaragua. Julia was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bluefields to Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua to the border with Honduras. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portion of the coast from Bluefields, Nicaragua to the border with Costa Rica and from Puerto Cabezas to the border with Honduras. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Pacific coast of Nicaragua, the Pacific coast of Honduras and the entire coast of El Salvador. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Patuca, Honduras to the border with Nicaragua. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Pacific coast of Guatemala.

Hurricane Julia made landfall on the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua north of Bluefields early on Sunday. Julia strengthened before it made landfall. A circular eye with a diameter of 40 miles (65 km) was at the center of Hurricane Julia at landfall. The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km) at the time of landfall. Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Julia’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Julia will move south of a high pressure system over the Caribbean Sea. The high pressure system will steer Julia toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Hurricane Julia will move across Nicaragua on Sunday. Julia will weaken as it moves across Nicaragua, but it will continue to bring strong gusty winds and locally heavy rain. Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations. Hurricane Julia will also bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to southern Honduras, southwestern Guatemala and to El Salvador. The center of Julia could move over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Sunday night. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras and El Salvador. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Pacific coast of Guatemala.

Julia Strengthens to a Hurricane East of Nicaragua

Former Tropical Storm Julia strengthened to a hurricane over the Southwest Caribbean Sea east of Nicaragua on Saturday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Julia was located at latitude 12.5°N and longitude 82.7°W which put it about 80 miles (130 km) east-northeast of Bluefields, Nicaragua. Julia was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands. A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bluefields to Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua to the border with Honduras. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portion of the coast from Bluefields, Nicaragua to the border with Costa Rica and from Puerto Cabezas to the border with Honduras. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Pacific coast of Nicaragua, the Pacific coast of Honduras and the entire coast of El Salvador. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Patuca, Honduras to the border with Nicaragua.

A circular eye with a diameter of 40 miles (65 km) formed at the center of Hurricane Julia on Saturday night. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Julia. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Julia’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Julia will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Julia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Julia could intensify during the next few hours. Julia will being to weaken when it makes landfall in Nicaragua.

Hurricane Julia will move south of a high pressure system over the Caribbean Sea. The high pressure system will steer Julia toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Hurricane Julia will make landfall on the east coast of Nicaragua in a few hours. Julia will bring strong gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Nicaragua on Sunday. Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations. Julia could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along the east coast of Nicaragua. Hurricane Julia will also bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to southern Honduras and to El Salvador.

Tropical Storm Julia Strengthens over Southwest Caribbean

Tropical Storm Julia strengthened over the Southwest Caribbean Sea on Saturday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Julia was located at latitude 12.8°N and longitude 79.0°W which put it about 165 miles (2705 km) east-southeast of Isla de Providencia, Colombia. Julia was moving toward the west at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands. A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bluefields to Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua to the border with Honduras. Tropical Storm Warning were in effect for the portion of the coast from Bluefields, Nicaragua to the border with Costa Rica and from Puerto Cabezas to the border with Honduras. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Patuca, Honduras to the border with Nicaragua.

Tropical Storm Julia strengthened over the Southwest Caribbean Sea east of Nicaragua on Saturday morning. More thunderstorms developed near the center of Julia’s circulation and in bands revolving around the center. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (175 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Julia will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Julia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Julia will intensify during the next 36 hours. Julia is likely to strengthen to a hurricane during the the next 12 hours. Tropical Storm Julia could intensify rapidly after an inner core with an eye and an eyewall form.

Tropical Storm Julia will move south of a high pressure system over the Caribbean Sea. The high pressure system will steer Julia toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Julia will reach San Andres, Providencia and the Santa Catalina Islands by Saturday evening. It could be a hurricane by that time. Julia could reach the coast of Nicaragua early on Sunday. Julia will bring strong gusty winds and locally heavy rain. Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations. Julia could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters).

Tropical Storm Julia Develops North of Colombia

Tropical Storm Julia developed over the Caribbean Sea just north of Colombia on Friday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Julia was located at latitude 12.7°N and longitude 73.1°W which put it about 110 miles (175 km) west of the northern tip of the Guajira Peninsula, Colombia. Julia was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bluefields, Nicaragua to the border with Honduras. A Tropical Storm Warning for the portion of the coast from Riohacha, Colombia eastward to the border with Venezuela. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Patuca, Honduras to the border with Nicaragua.

Former Tropical Depression Thirteen strengthened on Friday morning after the center of circulation moved over the Caribbean Sea north of Colombia and the National Hurricane Center upgraded the weather system to Tropical Storm Julia. Almost half of the circulation of Tropical Storm Julia was still over northern Colombia. More thunderstorms formed in the northern side of Julia which was over the Caribbean Sea. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern and western sides of the center of Tropical Storm Julia. Storms near the center of Julia generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the Tropical Storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles in the northern side of Julia’s circulation. The winds in the southern half of Julia were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Julia will move into an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Julia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Julia will intensify during the next 36 hours. Julia is likely to strengthen to a hurricane during the weekend. Tropical Storm Julia could intensify rapidly after an inner core with an eye and an eyewall form.

Tropical Storm Julia will move south of a high pressure system over the Caribbean Sea. The high pressure system will steer Julia toward the west during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Julia will move over the southwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday. Julia could reach San Andres, Providencia and the Santa Catalina Islands by Saturday evening. It could be a hurricane by that time. Julia could reach the coast of Nicaragua on Sunday morning. Julia will bring strong gusty winds and locally heavy rain. Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen Prompts Hurricane Watch by Colombia

A weather system designated Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen prompted the government of Colombia to issue a Hurricane Watch for some islands in the western Caribbean Sea. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen was located at latitude 11.5°N and longitude 67.7°W which put it about 100 miles (160 km) east-southeast of Curacao. Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands. A Tropical Storm Warning for the portion of the coast from Riohacha, Colombia eastward to the border with Venezuela.

A weather system over northern Venezuela strengthened on Thursday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen. The center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen was near the northern coast of Venezuela. More thunderstorms formed near the center of circulation on Thursday afternoon. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving about the center. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the weather system.

The primary factor keeping Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen from strengthening is that half of the circulation is over land. Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen will move into an environment favorable for intensification when the center of circulation moves over the southern Caribbean Sea. Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen could strengthen to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours. It could intensify to a hurricane during the weekend.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen will move south of a high pressure system over the Caribbean Sea. The high pressure system will steer the potential tropical cyclone toward the west during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen will along the coast of northwestern Venezuela during the next 24 hours. The center will move over southwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday. Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to northwestern Venezuela and northeastern Colombia. It will also bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Curacao, Bonaire and Aruba. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen could approach the coast of Nicaragua on Sunday. It could be a hurricane by that time.

Tropical Storm Paine Spins Southwest of Baja California

Tropical Storm Paine was spinning over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Tuesday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Paine was located at latitude 18.1°N and longitude 114.0°W which put it about 425 miles (685 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Paine was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Storm Paine seemed to be starting to weaken on Tuesday night. Many of the thunderstorms in Paine had dissipated. The bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Paine consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Paine appeared to be moving into a mass of drier air on Tuesday night. The drier air caused thunderstorms in Paine to collapse. Tropical Storm Paine will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next several days. Paine will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. However, an upper level trough west of Baja California will produce southwestern winds that will blow toward the top of Paine’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. A combination of drier air and moderate vertical wind shear is likely to cause Tropical Storm Paine to weaken steadily during the next several days.

Tropical Storm Paine will move south of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Paine toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Paine will move farther away from Baja California.

Tropical Depression Twelve Forms West of Cabo Verde Islands

Tropical Depression Twelve formed over the eastern Atlantic Ocean west of the Cabo Verde Islands on Tuesday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression Twelve was located at latitude 14.9°N and longitude 30.5°W which put it about 440 miles (705 km) west of the Cabo Verde Islands. The tropical depression was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A distinct low level center of circulation formed within a tropical wave over the eastern Atlantic Ocean west of the Cabo Verde Islands on Tuesday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Twelve. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern and eastern sides of the center of the tropical depression. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Twelve will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. Tropical Depression Twelve will move between an upper level ridge over West Africa and an upper level trough northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. The flows in the ridge and trough will interact to produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical depression’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Depression Twelve could intensify to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours if the upper level winds do not get any stronger.

Tropical Depression Twelve will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over West Africa. The high pressure system will steer the tropical depression toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Twelve will move farther away from the Cabo Verde Islands.