Monthly Archives: December 2022

Tropical Cyclone Mandous Weakens over the Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone Mandous weakened over the Arabian Sea on Friday. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mandous was located at latitude 13.6°N and longitude 64.1°E which put it about 600 miles (970 km) southeast of Masirah, Island. Mandous was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Mandous weakened over the Arabian Sea on Friday. An upper level ridge centered over India produced southwesterly winds that blew the tops off of many of the thunderstorms in Mandous. The remaining thunderstorms were in bands in the eastern periphery of Tropical Cyclone Mandous. Bands in the rest of Mandous’ circulation consisted of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Cyclone Mandous will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next several days. Mandous will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. However, the upper level ridge over India will continue to produce southwesterly winds will blow across the top of Mandous’ circulation. Those winds will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. In addition, northeasterly winds in the lower levels will transport drier air from Asia over the western Arabian Sea. A combination of strong vertical wind shear and drier air in the lower levels of the atmosphere will cause Tropical Cyclone Mandous to continue to weaken. The circulation around Mandous will gradually spin down during the next several days.

Tropical Cyclone Mandous will move south of a high pressure system over southern Asia and the northern Arabian Sea. The high pressure system will steer Mandous toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Mandous move slowly across the central Arabian Sea.

Tropical Cyclone Mandous Strengthens over Arabian Sea

Former Tropical Cyclone Mandous strengthened over the Arabian Sea on Wednesday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mandous was located at latitude 13.6°N and longitude 68.2°E which put it about 780 miles (1260 km) south of Karachi, Pakistan . Mandous was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The circulation around former Tropical Cyclone Mandous strengthened back to tropical storm force over the Arabian Sea on Wednesday. More thunderstorms formed at the center of Mandous’ circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Mandous. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the northwestern quadrant of Mandous’ circulation. The winds in the other parts of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Mandous will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Mandous will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over southern Asia and the Arabian Sea. The ridge will produce southerly winds will blow toward the top of Mandous’ circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. Northeasterly winds in the lower levels will transport drier air from Asia over the western Arabian Sea. The western side of Mandous’ will begin to interact with the drier air during the next 24 hours. A combination of moderate vertical wind shear and drier air in the lower levels of the atmosphere is likely to cause Tropical Cyclone Mandous to start to weaken on Thursday.

Tropical Cyclone Mandous will move south of a high pressure system over southern Asia and the northern Arabian Sea. The high pressure system will steer Mandous toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Mandous will remain far to the south of Pakistan.

Former Tropical Cyclone Mandous Moves over Arabian Sea

The circulation of former Tropical Cyclone Mandous moved over the Arabian Sea on Tuesday. At 1:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mandous was located at latitude 12.6°N and longitude 71.8°E which put it about 215 miles (345 km) west of Mangaluru, India. Mandous was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

After making landfall on the coast of southeastern India between Puducherry and Chennai on Friday, Tropical Cyclone Mandous moved westward across southern India during the weekend. The circulation of former Tropical Cyclone Mandous emerged over the Arabian Sea west of India on Tuesday. The circulation around Mandous was still well organized. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north and west of the former tropical cyclone.

Former Tropical Cyclone Mandous will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Mandous will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the northwestern part of an upper level ridge over southern Asia and the Arabian Sea. The ridge will produce northwesterly winds will blow toward the top of Mandous’ circulation. Those wind will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Former Tropical Cyclone Mandous could strengthen during the next 24 hours. Northeasterly winds in the lower levels are transporting drier air from Asia over the western Arabian Sea. Mandous is likely to weaken when it reaches the mass of drier air later this week.

Former Tropical Cyclone Mandous will move south of a high pressure system over southern Asia and the northern Arabian Sea. The high pressure system will steer Mandous toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track, former Tropical Cyclone Mandous will move farther away from the coast of southwest India.

Pakhar Weakens to a Tropical Depression

Former Tropical Storm Pakhar weakened to a tropical depression over the Western North Pacific Ocean northeast of the Philippines on Monday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Pakhar was located at latitude 19.3°N and longitude 131.1°E which put it about 745 miles (1205 km) east-northeast of Manila, Philippines. Pakhar was moving toward the southeast at 7 m.p.h. (21 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

After strengthening on Sunday, former Tropical Storm Pakhar weakened to a tropical depression on Monday. An upper level trough west of Japan produced strong southwesterly winds that blew across the top of Pakhar’s circulation. Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear and they blew the top of former Tropical Storm Pakhar away to the northeast of the lower level circulation. The circulation around Tropical Depression Pakhar on Monday afternoon consisted of a swirl of showers and lower clouds. Any clouds that grew higher into the atmosphere were quickly sheared apart by the strong upper level winds.

The circulation around Tropical Depression Pakhar will spin down gradually during the next 24 hours. Pakhar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. However, the upper level trough west of Japan will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The wind shear will prevent the development of new thunderstorms around Tropical Depression Pakhar.

Since the circulation around Tropical Depression Pakhar only exists in the lower levels of the atmosphere, it will be steered by the winds near the surface. Northeasterly winds will push Pakhar back toward the southwest. On its anticipated track, the circulation around Tropical Depression Pakhar should dissipate east of the Philippines during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Storm Pakhar Develops Northeast of the Philippines

Tropical Storm Pakhar developed over the Western North Pacific Ocean northeast of the Philippines on Sunday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Pakhar was located at latitude 18.5°N and longitude 127.5°E which put it about 470 miles (755 km) east-northeast of Manila, Philippines. Pakhar was moving toward the northeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system northeast of the Philippines strengthened on Sunday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Pakhar. More thunderstorms developed near the center of Pakhar’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Pakhar. Storms near the center of Pakhar generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Pakhar will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Pakhar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. An upper level trough east of China will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Pakhar’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Storm Pakhar could strengthen during the next 18 hours. The upper level trough will move closer to Pakhar on Monday and the upper level winds will get stronger. More vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Storm Pakhar to weaken early next week.

The upper level trough over eastern China will steer Tropical Storm Pakhar toward the northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Pakhar will move farther away from the Philippines. When the vertical wind shear increases on Monday, strong upper level winds could blow the top off of Tropical Storm Pakhar. If that happens, then Pakhar will be steered by winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Those winds could steer Pakhar back toward the southwest early next week.

Tropical Cyclone Mandous Makes Landfall in Southern India

Tropical Cyclone Mandous made landfall in southern India on Friday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mandous was located at latitude 12.8°N and longitude 80.4°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) southwest of Chennai, India. Mandous was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Mandous made landfall on the coast of southern India between Chennai and Puducherry on Friday. Mandous moved into a mass of drier air and weakened prior to landfall. Tropical Cyclone Mandous was the equivalent of a tropical storm at the time of landfall. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Mandous’ circulation. The heaviest rain was falling in bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Mandous.

Tropical Cyclone Mandous will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over southern Asia. The high pressure system will steer Mandous toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Mandous move farther inland over southern India during the next 24 hours. Mandous will weaken gradually as it moves farther inland. Tropical Cyclone Mandous will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Puducherry, northern Tamil Nadu and southern Andhra Pradesh. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Mandous Strengthens over Southwest Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone Mandous strengthened over the southwestern Bay of Bengal on Thursday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mandous was located at latitude 10.7°N and longitude 81.9°E which put it about 215 miles (345 km) southeast of Chennai, India. Mandous was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Mandous strengthened on Thursday. Even though Mandous was stronger, the distribution of thunderstorms continued to be asymmetrical. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Mandous’ circulation. Bands in the eastern half of Mandous consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms west of the center of Mandous generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Mandous.

Tropical Cyclone Mandous will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Mandous will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over Southeast Asia and the Bay of Bengal. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Mandous’ circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear is already contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms and the shear will inhibit intensification. The western side Tropical Cyclone Mandous will interact with a mass of drier air over India, when Mandous gets closer to the coast of India. A combination of moderate vertical wind shear and drier air is likely to cause Mandous to begin to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Mandous will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over southern Asia. The high pressure system will steer Mandous toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Mandous will be near the coast of southern India near Chennai in 24 hours. Mandous will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Puducherry, northern Tamil Nadu and southern Andhra Pradesh. Tropical Cyclone Mandous will also drop heavy rain over northern Sri Lanka. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Mandous Forms over Southwest Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone Mandous formed over the southwestern Bay of Bengal east of Sri Lanka on Wednesday afternoon. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mandous was located at latitude 9.6°N and longitude 83.8°E which put it about 360 miles (580 km) southeast of Chennai, India. Mandous was moving toward the west-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the southwestern Bay of Bengal strengthened on Wednesday afternoon and the India Meteorological Department designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Mandous. The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone Mandous was asymmetrical. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Mandous’ circulation. Bands in the eastern half of Mandous consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms west of the center of Mandous generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Mandous.

Tropical Cyclone Mandous will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Mandous will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over Southeast Asia and the Bay of Bengal. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Mandous’ circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear is contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms and the shear will inhibit intensification. The vertical wind shear may not be strong enough to prevent intensification during the next 24 hours and Tropical Cyclone Mandous could strengthen during that time period.

Tropical Cyclone Mandous will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over southern Asia. The high pressure system will steer Mandous toward the northwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Mandous could be near the coast of southern India near Chennai in 48 hours. Mandous could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Puducherry, northern Tamil Nadu and southern Andhra Pradesh. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Possible Subtropical Development Southeast of Bermuda

A low pressure system southeast of Bermuda could develop into a subtropical storm during the next few days. At 9:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of the low pressure system was located at latitude 24.0°N and longitude 55.0°W which put it about 855 miles (1380 km) southeast of Bermuda. The low pressure system was moving toward the north at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A low pressure system southeast of Bermuda has the potential to develop into a subtropical storm this week. There is already a strong surface circulation around the low pressure system. The surface low pressure system is located northeast of an upper level low. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were occurring in the northern and eastern parts of the surface low pressure system. Bands in the southern and western parts of the surface low consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The low pressure system southeast of Bermuda will move through an environment somewhat favorable for the development of a subtropical storm during the next 48 hours. The low pressure system will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26˚C. It will move under the northeastern part of an upper level low. The upper level low will produce southeasterly winds that will blow across the top of the surface low. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear will likely make the environment unfavorable for the development of a tropical storm. However, the wind shear may be weak enough to allow for the surface low to make a transition to a subtropical storm. The National Hurricane Center is indicating there is a probability of 40% that the surface low pressure system develops into a subtropical storm during the next five days.

The upper low will steer the surface low pressure system slowly toward the northwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track the surface low pressure system will remain far to the southeast of Bermuda.