Dangerous Typhoon Chanthu Nears Northeast Luzon

Dangerous Typhoon Chanthu neared northeastern Luzon on Thursday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Chanthu was located at latitude 17.5°N and longitude 123.7°E which put it about 135 miles (215 km) southeast of Aparri, Philippines. Chanthu was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 925 mb.

Typhoon Chanthu completed an eyewall replacement cycle on Thursday and Chanthu was strengthening again. The original eye and eyewall were almost entirely dissipated. A new, slightly larger eye was visible at the center of Typhoon Chanthu on satellite images. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Chanthu. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the typhoon.

Although the eyewall replacement cycle increased the size of the core of Typhoon Chanthu, the total circulation around Chanthu was relative small. Winds to typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Chanthu. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Chanthu was 31.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 45.3. Typhoon Chanthu was capable of causing regional severe damage.

Typhoon Chanthu will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Chanthu will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Chanthu could strengthen during the next 12 hours. Chanthu will weaken if the core of the typhoon moves over northeastern Luzon. If the core of Typhoon Chanthu passes northeast of Luzon, then it could maintain its intensity during the next 36 hours.

Typhoon Chanthu will move around the western end of a high pressure system during the next few days. The high pressure system will steer Chanthu toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the core of Typhoon Chanthu will pass very close to northeastern Luzon. Chanthu could cause severe damage to northeastern Luzon. Typhoon Chantu will bring very strong winds and locally heavy rain. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods. Typhoon Chantu could affect Taiwan during the weekend.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Conson moved toward central Vietnam. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Conson was located at latitude 15.8°N and longitude 112.2°E which put it about 280 miles (460 km) east of Da Nang, Vietnam. Conson was moving toward the west-southwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.