Tag Archives: La Reunion

Tropical Cyclone Fantala Forms South of Diego Garcia

A well organized center of circulation developed within a small area of thunderstorms south of Diego Garcia on Monday and the system was designated Tropical Cyclone Fantala.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fantala was located at latitude 13.0°S and longitude 70.8°E which put it about 420 miles (675 km) south-southwest of Diego Garcia.  Fantala was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (14 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Cyclone is still organizing.  A primary rainband is wrapping around the southern and western sides of the center of circulation.  Most of the thunderstorms are near or in the primary rainband.  There are few thunderstorms east of the center of circulation.  The thunderstorms are generating upper level outflow to the west side of the circulation.

The environment is favorable for further intensification.  Fantala is over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  An upper level ridge south of Fantala is generating light easterly winds over the core of the circulation.  The easterly winds are producing a little vertical wind shear.  The shear is strong enough to contribute to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms, but it is not strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Fantala could become the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon within 24 hours.

A subtropical ridge south of Fantala is expected to steer the tropical cyclone in a general westerly direction during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Fantala could be northeast of La Reunion later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Glenda Forms South of Diego Garcia

A low level circulation consolidated quickly in a large area of thunderstorms over the south central Indian Ocean and the system was classified as Tropical Cyclone Glenda.  At 11:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Glenda was located at latitude 17.3°S and longitude 69.8°E which put it about 670 miles south of Diego Garcia and about 1040 miles east-northeast of La Reunion.  Glenda was moving toward the west-southwest at 10 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 75 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

Glenda is over warm Sea Surface Temperatures and it has well developed upper level outflow.  The outflow is pumping out mass and the pressure has been decreasing steadily.  Glenda is like to remain in a favorable environment for another 48 hours.  It will likely reach hurricane intensity on Wednesday and it could become the equivalent of a major hurricane on Thursday.

Glenda is being steered to the west-southwest by a subtropical ridge located southeast of it.  This motion is likely to continue for another 24 to 36 hours.  When it approaches the western end of the ridge, it will turn more toward the south.  The projected track keeps Glenda well south of Diego Garcia and has it turning southward well to the east of La Reunion.  As a result, Glenda poses no current threat to any land area.