Gilma Intensifies to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Gilma intensified to a hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean between Baja California and Mexico on Wednesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Gilma was located at latitude 16.0°N and longitude 122.8°W which put the center about 965 miles (1555 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Gilma was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Gilma intensified to a hurricane between Baja California and Hawaii on Wednesday morning.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Hurricane Gilma.  A circular eye was evident on microwave satellite images of Gilma.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Gilma.  Storms near the center of Gilma’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Gilma was more symmetrical on Wednesday morning.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Gilma’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Hurricane Gilma.

Hurricane Gilma will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Gilma will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Eastern north Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Gilma’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Hurricane Gilma will continue to intensify during the next 24 hours.  Gilma could strengthen to a major hurricane later this week.

Hurricane Gilma will move around the southern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Gilma toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Gilma will move farther away from Baja California.

 

Hurricane Ernesto Becomes an Extratropical Cyclone

Hurricane Ernesto made a transition to an extratropical cyclone east of Newfoundland on Tuesday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of former Hurricane Ernesto was located at latitude 49.0°N and longitude 44.7°W which put the center about 420 miles (675 km) east-northeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland.  Ernesto was moving toward the northeast at 37 m.p.h. (59 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

Former Hurricane Ernesto made a transition to an extratropical cyclone over the Atlantic Ocean east of Newfoundland.  Ernesto moved over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 14°C.  It moved under strong upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes.  Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear.  The colder water and the strong vertical wind shear caused the structure of former Hurricane Ernesto to change to that of a strong extratropical cyclone.

The circulation around former Hurricane Ernesto was large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 230 miles (370 km) from the center of Ernesto’s circulation.

The westerly winds in the middle latitudes will steer former Hurricane Ernesto toward the east-northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Ernesto will pass south of Iceland on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Gilma Strengthens

Tropical Storm Gilma strengthened as it churned westward over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Monday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Gilma was located at latitude 15.1°N and longitude 116.9°W which put the center about 705 miles (1135 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Gilma was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

Tropical Storm Gilma strengthened on Monday as it churned westward over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California.  Even though Tropical Storm Gilma strengthened, the distribution of thunderstorms around Gilma’s circulation remained asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western side of Gilma’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Gilma consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Gilma generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical storm.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Storm Gilma increased a little on Monday.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Gilma’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Gilma will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Gilma will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Eastern north Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Gilma’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Gilma is likely to continue to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Gilma will move around the southern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Gilma toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Gilma will move farther away from Baja California.

Hurricane Ernesto Speeds Toward Southeastern Newfoundland

Hurricane Ernesto sped to southeastern Newfoundland on Monday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located at latitude 43.6°N and longitude 56.1°W which put the center about 250 miles (400 km) southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland.  Ernesto was moving toward the northeast at 26 m.p.h. (43 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.

Hurricane Ernesto strengthened as it sped over the Gulf Stream toward southeastern Newfoundland on Monday afternoon.  A small circular eye was at the center of Ernesto’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Ernesto’s circulation.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Ernesto was still exhibiting the characteristics of a tropical cyclone.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the eastern side of Ernesto’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 220 miles (350 km) from the center of Hurricane Ernesto.

Hurricane Ernesto will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Ernesto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 17°C.  It will move under the eastern portion of an upper level trough over the northeastern U.S.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ernesto’s circulation.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear.  The colder water and strong wind shear will cause Hurricane Ernesto to weaken during the next 24 hours.  The colder water and vertical wind shear will also cause Hurricane Ernesto to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough over the northeastern U.S. will steer Hurricane Ernesto toward the east- northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated path, Ernesto will pass far to the south of pass near southeastern Newfoundland on Monday night.  Ernesto will move south of Greenland on Tuesday.

The circulation around the northern side of Hurricane Ernesto could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to southeastern Newfoundland.

Tropical Storm Gilma Forms South of Baja California

Tropical Storm Gilma formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Sunday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Gilma was located at latitude 14.7°N and longitude 112.3°W which put the center about 585 miles (945 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Gilma was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

An area of low pressure over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California strengthened on Sunday afternoon and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Gilma.  A well defined low level center of circulation was evident in visible satellite images.  However, the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Gilma was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western side of Gilma’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Gilma consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Gilma started to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical storm.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Gilma was also asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the northern side of Gilma’s circulation.  The winds in the southern side of Gilma were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Gilma will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Gilma will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Eastern north Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Gilma’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm GIlma is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Gilma will move around the southern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Gilma toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Gilma will move farther away from Baja California.

Hurricane Ernesto Moves Toward Southeastern Newfoundland

Hurricane Ernesto moved toward southeastern Newfoundland on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located at latitude 37.9°N and longitude 62.3°W which put the center about 815 miles (1310 km) southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland.  Ernesto was moving toward the north-northeast at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

After briefly weakening to a tropical storm north of Bermuda on Saturday night, Ernesto strengthened back to a hurricane on Sunday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped back around the center of Hurricane Ernesto.  A circular eye was visible again at the center of Ernesto’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorm and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Thunderstorms also developed in the rainbands revolving around the center of Hurricane Ernesto.  Storms near the center of Ernesto generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the hurricane.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Ernesto was a little smaller on Sunday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the southeastern quadrant of Ernesto’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 220 miles (355 km) from the center of Hurricane Ernesto.

Hurricane Ernesto will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ernesto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the eastern portion of an upper level trough over the Great Lakes.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ernesto’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to stop intensification.  Hurricane Ernesto is likely to strengthen during the next 24 hours.  Ernesto will move over colder water on Monday night.  The colder water and vertical wind shear will cause Hurricane Ernesto to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough over the Great Lakes will steer Hurricane Ernesto toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated path, Ernesto will pass far to the south of Nova Scotia on Sunday night.  Hurricane Ernesto will be near southeastern Newfoundland on Monday night.

 

Tropical Storm Ernesto Moves Away from Bermuda

Tropical Storm Ernesto moved away from Bermuda on Saturday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located at latitude 33.9°N and longitude 63.3°W which put the center about 140miles (220 km) northeast of Bermuda.  Ernesto was moving toward the north-northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Bermuda.

Former Hurricane Ernesto weakened to a tropical storm on Saturday evening.  Drier air wrapped all of the way around Ernesto’s circulation.  The drier air caused many of the remaining thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Ernesto to dissipate.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in the northern portion of the former eyewall.  The remnant of former Hurricane Ernesto’s large eye was also visible on satellite imagery.  The bands revolving around the center of Ernesto’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Ernesto was large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 230 miles (370 km) from the center of Ernesto’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Ernesto will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ernesto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern portion of an upper level trough off the east coast of the U.S.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ernesto’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will be less on Sunday.  The wind shear and the drier air In Ernesto’s circulation will inhibit intensification.  However, Tropical Storm Ernesto could strengthen a little during the next 24 hours even with the vertical wind shear and drier air.

Tropical Storm Ernesto will move around the western side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Ernesto toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours.  An upper level trough over the Great Lakes will steer Ernesto toward the northeast more quickly on Monday.  Tropical Storm Ernesto could approach southeastern Newfoundland on Monday night.

Typhoon Ampil Moves Quickly Away from Japan

Typhoon Ampil moved quickly away from Japan on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Ampil was located at latitude 39.1°N and longitude 151.1°E which put the center about 620 miles (1000 km) east-northeast of Tokyo, Japan.  Ampil was moving toward the east-northeast at 24 m.p.h. (39 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

Typhoon Ampil weakened steadily as it moved quickly away from Japan on Saturday.  Ampil moved over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures were cooler.  In addition, the upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes caused strong vertical wind shear.  The cooler water and wind shear caused Typhoon Ampil to weaken.  The circulation around the western side of Ampil’s circulation also pulled drier air into the southern and western parts of the typhoon.

Cooler water, strong vertical wind shear, and drier air affected the structure of Typhoon Ampil.  A large circular eye was still present at the center of Ampil’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the eastern and northern parts of Typhoon Ampil.  Bands in the southern and western parts of Ampil’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

There was still a large circulation around Typhoon Ampil.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Ampil’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 165 miles (265 km) from the center of Typhoon Ampil.

Typhoon Ampil will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ampil will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 23°C.  It will move under the upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes. Those westerly winds will cause strong vertical wind shear.  The cooler water and strong vertical wind shear will cause Typhoon Ampil to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.  The cooler water and strong wind shear will also cause Ampil to make a transition to a strong extratropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

The westerly winds in the middle latitudes will steer Typhoon Ampil toward the east-northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Ampil will move farther away from Japan.

 

Hurricane Ernesto Hits Bermuda

Hurricane Ernesto hit Bermuda early on Saturday.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located at latitude 32.6°N and longitude 64.6°W which put the center about 15 miles (25 km) north-northeast of Bermuda.    Ernesto was moving toward the north-northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).   The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).   The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Bermuda.

The center of Hurricane Ernesto passed over Bermuda early on Saturday.  A weather station at the L.F. Wade International airport reported a sustained wind speed of 61 m.p.h. (98 km/h) and a wind gust of 84 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  There were reports of widespread electricity outages in Bermuda.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Ernesto was large when Ernesto moved over Bermuda.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Ernesto’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 240 miles (390 km) from the center of Hurricane Ernesto.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 12.7.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 22.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 35.0.  Hurricane Ernesto was similar in intensity to Hurricane Irene when Irene hit North Carolina in 2011.  Ernesto was not quite as large as Irene was.

Drier air was pulled around the southern side of Hurricane Ernesto as it approached Bermuda.  The drier air caused many of the thunderstorms in the western and southern parts of Ernesto’s circulation to weaken.  Bands in the western and southern sides of Hurricane Ernesto consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the eastern and northern parts of Ernesto.  Storms near the center of Ernesto’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the hurricane.

Hurricane Ernesto will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ernesto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern portion of an upper level trough off the east coast of the U.S.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ernesto’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The drier air In Ernesto’s circulation will inhibit intensification.  Hurricane Ernesto is likely to maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Ernesto will move around the western side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Ernesto toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Ernesto will move away from Bermuda on Saturday.  An upper level trough over the Great Lakes will steer Ernesto toward the northeast more quickly on Sunday.  Hurricane Ernesto could approach Newfoundland on Monday night.

The wind speeds will diminish in Bermuda as Hurricane Ernesto moves farther away on Saturday.

 

 

Hurricane Ernesto Approaches Bermuda

Hurricane Ernesto was approaching Bermuda on Friday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located at latitude 30.6°N and longitude 65.6°W which put the center about 125 miles (200 km) south-southwest of Bermuda.   Ernesto was moving toward the northeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).   The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).   The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Bermuda.

A circular eye with a diameter of 60 miles (95 km) was present at the center of Ernesto’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Ernesto’s circulation.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was balanced by the inflow of mass in the lower levels.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Ernesto was large.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Ernesto’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 275 miles (445 km) from the center of Hurricane Ernesto.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 24.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 41.3.  Hurricane Ernesto is similar in size to Hurricane Gustav when Gustav hit Louisiana in 2008.  Ernesto is not quite as strong as Gustav  was.

Hurricane Ernesto will move through an environment that will become less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ernesto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern portion of an upper level trough off the east coast of the U.S.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ernesto’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification but Hurricane Ernesto is likely to maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Ernesto will move around the western side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Ernesto toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Ernesto will move near Bermuda early on Saturday morning.

Hurricane Ernesto will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Bermuda.  The strong winds will be capable of causing serious damage.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods.