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Tropical Cyclone Chido Rapidly Intensifies to Threshold of Cat. 5 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Chido rapidly intensified to the threshold of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the South Indian Ocean east of northern Madagascar during Wednesday night.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido was located at latitude 10.6°S and longitude 54.0°E which put the center about 335 miles (540 km) east of Antsiranana, Madascar.  Chido was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 929 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Chido rapidly intensified to the threshold of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale during Wednesday night.  A small circular eye with a diameter of 14 miles (22 km) was at the center of Chido’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Chido.  Storms near the core of Chido generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Chido increased as Chido rapidly intensified.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Chido’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Chido is 33.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 13.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 46.5.  Tropical Cyclone Chido is similar in intensity to Hurricane Ian when Ian made landfall in southwest Florida in 2022.  Chido is not quite as large as Ian was.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Chido will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Chido could continue to intensify during the next 24 hours.  However, if the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then concentric eyewalls could form.  If concentric eyewalls form, then an eyewall replacement cycle would cause Chido to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Chido toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Chido will move toward northern Madagascar.  The center of Chido will reach northern Madagascar in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will bring strong winds and heavy rain to northern Madagascar.  Chido is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it hits Madagascar.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Chido could also cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters ) along parts of the coast of northern Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Chido Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Chido rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean east of northern Madagascar on Wednesday afternoon.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido was located at latitude 10.4°S and longitude 56.3°E which put the center about 490 miles (790 km) east of Antsiranana, Madascar.  Chido was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 945 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Chido rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Wednesday afternoon.  A small circular eye with a diameter of 7 miles (11 km) was at the center of Chido’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Chido.  Storms near the core of Chido generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Chido was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Chido’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles in from the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Chido is 28.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 7.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 35.3.  Tropical Cyclone Chido is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Charley when Charley made landfall in southwest Florida in 2004.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Chido will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Chido could continue to intensify during the next 24 hours.  However, if the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then concentric eyewalls could form.  If concentric eyewalls form, then an eyewall replacement cycle would cause Chido to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Chido toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Chido will move toward northern Madagascar.  The center of Chido will reach northern Madagascar on Friday.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will bring strong winds and heavy rain to northern Madagascar.  Chido is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it hits Madagascar.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Chido could also cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters ) along parts of the coast of northern Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Chido Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Chido strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean east of northern Madagascar on Wednesday morning.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido was located at latitude 10.5°S and longitude 57.9°E which put the center about 590 miles (950 km) east of Antsiranana, Madascar.  Chido was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Chido intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Wednesday morning.  A small circular eye formed at the center of Chido’s circulation.  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Chido.  Storms near the core of Chido generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Chido was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Chido’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (175 km) in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Chido.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles in the northern half of Chido’s circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Chido is 12.7.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 7.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 20.2.  Tropical Cyclone Chido is similar in intensity to Hurricane Dolly when Dolly made landfall in south Texas in 2008.  Chido is smaller than Dolly was.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Chido will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Chido will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Chido could intensify rapidly at times.  Tropical Cyclone Chido could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Chido toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Chido will move toward northern Madagascar.  The center of Chido will reach northern Madagascar on Friday.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will bring strong winds and heavy rain to northern Madagascar.  Chido could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it hits Madagascar.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Chido could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters ) along parts of the coast of northern Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Chido Intensifies

Tropical Cyclone Chido strengthened over the South Indian Ocean east of northern Madagascar on Monday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido was located at latitude 10.6°S and longitude 59.3°E which put the center about 680 miles (1095 km) east of Antsiranana, Madascar.  Chido was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Chido strengthened over the South Indian Ocean east of northern Madagascar on Tuesday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western side of the center of Chido’s circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido.  Storms near the center of Chido generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Chido became more symmetrical on Tuesday when Chido strengthened.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Chido’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Chido will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Chido’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Chido will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Chido is likely to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Wednesday.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Chido toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Chido will move toward northern Madagascar.  The center of Chido will approach northern Madagascar on Friday.

Tropical Cyclone Chido Forms East of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Chido formed over the South Indian Ocean east of northern Madagascar on Monday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido was located at latitude 10.9°S and longitude 62.1°E which put the center about 870 miles (1405 km) east of Antsiranana, Madascar.  Chido was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean east of northern Madagascar strengthened on Monday and Meteo France la Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Chido.  The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Chido was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western side of Chido’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Chido consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms in the western side of Chido generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Chido was also asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the western side of Chido’s circulation.  The winds in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Chido were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Chido will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Chido’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Chido will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Chido toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Chido will move toward northern Madagascar.  Chido could approach northern Madagascar by the end of this week.

Tropical Cyclone Alvaro Starts Extratropical Transition

Tropical Cyclone Alvaro started to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone over the Southwest Indian Ocean south of La Reunion on Wednesday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alvaro was located at latitude 26.8°S and longitude 54.9°E which put it about 405 miles (655 km) south of St. Denis, La Reunion. Alvaro was moving toward the southeast at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Alvaro began a transition to an extratropical cyclone on Wednesday. Alvaro moved over cooler water. In addition, an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean produced strong westerly winds that blew toward the top of Alvaro’s circulation. Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear. The combination of cooler water and strong vertical wind shear caused the structure of Tropical Cyclone Alvaro to change. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southeastern part of Alvaro’s circulation. Bands in the other parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Alvaro.

Tropical Cyclone Alvaro will move through an environment unfavorable for a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Alvaro will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are colder than 26°C. It will continue to move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The upper level ridge will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The colder water and strong vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Alvaro to continue its transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean will steer Tropical Cyclone Alvaro toward the southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Alvaro will pass south of Mauritius on Thursday.

Tropical Cyclone Alvaro Moves East of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Alvaro moved east of Madagascar on Tuesday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alvaro was located at latitude 23.1°S and longitude 50.3°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) east of Farafangana, Madagascar. Alvaro was moving toward the east-southeast at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Alvaro weakened to the equivalent of a tropical depression before it moved over the Southwest Indian Ocean east of Madagascar on Tuesday. Alvaro began to intensify slowly after it moved back over water. More thunderstorms began to develop in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Alvaro. Those thunderstorms generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of Alvaro’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Alvaro will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Alvaro will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Alvaro’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be enough to prevent some intensification. Tropical Cyclone Alvaro could continue to slowly intensify on Wednesday.

The upper level ridge over the Mozambique Channel will steer Tropical Cyclone Alvaro toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Alvaro will move farther east of Madagascar. Alvaro will pass south of La Reunion and Mauritius in 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Alvaro Brings Wind and Rain to Southern Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Alvaro brought wind and rain to southern Madagascar on Monday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alvaro was located at latitude 21.5°S and longitude 45.3°E which put it about 40 miles (65 km) north of Fianarantsoa, Madagascar. Alvaro was moving toward the east at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Alvaro made landfall on the coast of southwest Madagascar north of Morombe on Monday. Alvaro was near hurricane/typhoon intensity at the time of landfall. A circular eye was at the center of Alvaro’s circulation at the time of landfall. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center of circulation. Tropical Cyclone Alvaro moved eastward across southern Madagascar and the center was north of Fianarantsoa on Sunday night. Heavy rain was falling over parts of southern Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Alvaro weakened after it moved over southern Madagascar on Monday, but Alvaro’s circulation continued to exhibit organization. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center of Alvaro generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Alvaro.

Tropical Cyclone Alvaro will continue to weaken while the center of circulation moves eastward over southern Madagascar. The center of Alvaro’s circulation could move over the southwest Indian Ocean east of Madagascar in 24 hours. Tropical Cyclone Alvaro will move into an environment somewhat favorable for intensification when it moves back over water. Alvaro will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the southwest Indian Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Alvaro’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be enough to prevent some intensification. Tropical Cyclone Alvaro could intensify when the center moves back over water east of Madagascar.

The upper level ridge over the Mozambique Channel will steer Tropical Cyclone Alvaro toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Alvaro will continue to move eastward across southern Madagascar. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some parts of southern Madagascar. Alvaro will move off the coast of southeast Madagascar between Mananjary and Manakara in about 24 hours. Tropical Cyclone Alvaro could pass south of La Reunion and Mauritius later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Alvaro Intensifies to Near Hurricane/Typhoon Force

Tropical Cyclone Alvaro intensified to near hurricane/typhoon force on Monday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alvaro was located at latitude 21.6°S and longitude 43.2°E which put it about 50 miles (80 km) northwest of Morombe, Madagascar. Alvaro was moving toward the east-southeast at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Alvaro strengthened to near hurricane/typhoon force as it approached southern Madagascar on Sunday morning. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Alvaro’s circulation. A circular eye with a diameter of 40 miles (65 km) formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Alvaro. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Alvaro.

Tropical Cyclone Alvaro will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Alvaro will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Mozambique Channel. The upper level ridge will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Alvaro’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Alvaro could intensify to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next few hours hours before it makes landfall in southern Madagascar.

The upper level ridge over the Mozambique Channel will steer Tropical Cyclone Alvaro toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Alvaro will make landfall on the coast of southwest Madagascar north of Morombe in a few hours. Tropical Cyclone Alvaro will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar. Bands in the eastern side of Alvaro’s circulation were already dropping heavy rain on parts of southern Madagascar. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Alvaro could also cause a storm surge of up to seven feet (two meters) along the coast north of Morombe.

Tropical Cyclone Alvaro Forms over the Mozambique Channel

Tropical Cyclone Alvaro formed over the Mozambique Channel on Sunday morning. At 7:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alvaro was located at latitude 20.5°S and longitude 39.1°E which put it about 380 miles (610 km) west-northwest of Toliara, Madagascar. Alvaro was moving toward the east-southeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A low pressure system over the Mozambique Channel intensified on Sunday morning and Meteo France la Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Alvaro. More thunderstorms formed around the center of Alvaro’s circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Thunderstorms were also forming in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Alvaro. Bands in the western side of Alvaro’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the eastern half of Alvaro. The winds in the western side of Tropical Cyclone Alvaro were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Alvaro will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Alvaro will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Mozambique Channel. The upper level ridge will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Alvaro’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Alvaro will intensify during the next 24 hours.

The upper level ridge over the Mozambique Channel will steer Tropical Cyclone Alvaro toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Alvaro will approach the coast of southwest Madagascar near Morombe on Monday. Tropical Cyclone Alvaro will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.