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Tropical Storm Lisa Strengthens, Hurricane Warning Issued for Belize

Tropical Storm Lisa strengthened over the Northwest Caribbean Sea northeast of Honduras on Tuesday afternoon and a Hurricane Warning was issued for the entire coast of Belize. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Lisa was located at latitude 16.7°N and longitude 83.3°W which put it about 330 miles (530 km) east of Belize City, Belize. Lisa was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Belize and the Bay Islands, Honduras. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Chetumal to Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the entire North Coast of Honduras, the coast of Guatemala, and the portion of the coast from Chetumal to Punta Herrero, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Lisa strengthened on Tuesday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Lisa’s circulation. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Storm Lisa. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The circulation around Tropical Storm Lisa was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Lisa will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Lisa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Lisa is likely to strengthen to a hurricane during the next 12 hours. Lisa could intensify more rapidly after an inner core with an eye and an eyewall forms.

Tropical Storm Lisa will move south of a high pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Lisa toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Lisa will be north of Honduras on Tuesday night. Lisa will approach Belize on Wednesday afternoon. Tropical Storm Lisa will be a hurricane when it approaches Belize. Tropical Storm Lisa could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the north coast of Honduras. Lisa will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Belize. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Lisa will also cause a storm surge along the coast of Belize.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Martin developed east-northeast of Bermuda. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Martin was located at latitude 35.4°N and longitude 54.5°W which put it about 630 miles (1010 km) east-northeast of Bermuda. Martin was moving toward the east at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

Tropical Storm Lisa Develops South of Jamaica

Tropical Storm Lisa developed over the Caribbean Sea south of Jamaica on Monday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Lisa was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 77.3°W which put it about 175 miles (285 km) south of Kingston, Jamaica. It was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Jamaica.

The National Hurricane Center designated former Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen as Tropical Storm Lisa on Monday morning. The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Lisa was still asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Lisa’s circulation. Bands in the western side of Tropical Storm Lisa consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the eastern side of Lisa. The winds in the western side of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Lisa will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Lisa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea. The upper level ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Lisa’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Storm Lisa is likely to strengthen gradually during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Lisa will move south of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Lisa could be north of Honduras by Tuesday night. Lisa could approach Belize on Wednesday afternoon. Tropical Storm Lisa could be a hurricane when it approaches Belize.

Low Pressure System over Caribbean Sea Prompts Tropical Storm Watches for Jamaica and Grand Cayman

A low pressure system over the central Caribbean Sea prompted the issuance of Tropical Storm Watches for Jamaica and Grand Cayman on Sunday afternoon. The National Hurricane Center designated the low pressure system as Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Potential Tropical Tropical Cyclone Fifteen was located at latitude 15.7°N and longitude 73.6°W which put it about 265 miles (425 km) southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. It was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Tropical Storm Watches were issued for Jamaica and Grand Cayman.

Reconnaissance planes from the U.S. Air Force Reserve and NOAA found winds to tropical storm force in the northern side of a low pressure system over the central Caribbean Sea on Sunday. Based on data collected by the planes, the National Hurricane Center designated the low pressure system as Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen. There was a large counterclockwise rotation around the low pressure system. Several small counterclockwise swirls were revolving around the larger low pressure system. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the northern side of Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen. The winds in the southern half of the low pressure system were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the northwestern part of an upper level ridge over the eastern two thirds of the Caribbean Sea. The upper level ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen will be designated as a tropical storm if more thunderstorms form closer to the center of circulation. It could eventually strengthen to a hurricane later this week.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen will move south of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen toward the west-northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen will pass south of Jamaica on Monday. It will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Jamaica. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Depression 16 Forms East of Northern Leeward Islands

Tropical Depression Sixteen formed east of the Northern Leeward Islands on Saturday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen was located at latitude 16.4°N and longitude 53.1°W which put it about 670 miles (1080 km) east of the Northern Leeward Islands. The tropical depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were’ wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of a low pressure system east of the Northern Leeward Islands on Saturday night and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Sixteen. Thunderstorms were also developing in bands in the eastern and northern parts of the tropical depression. Bands in the southern and western parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north of the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Sixteen will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge. The ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical depression. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Depression Sixteen is likely to strengthen to a tropical storm on Sunday. The tropical depression will move closer to an upper level trough northeast of Puerto Rico on Monday. The upper level trough will produce strong southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical depression. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear, which is likely to weaken the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Sixteen will move around the southern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the depression toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Sixteen could be northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands by Monday morning.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Odette made a transition to an extratropical cyclone south of Nova Scotia. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of former Tropical Storm Odette was located at latitude 39.1°N and longitude 65.1°W which put it about 385 miles (625 km) south-southwest of Halifax, Nova Scotia. Odette was moving toward the east-northeast at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were’ wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

Tropical Storm Odette Forms South of New England

Tropical Storm Odette formed south of New England on Friday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Odette was located at latitude 36.7°N and longitude 71.8°W which put it about 325 miles (525 km) south-southwest of Nantucket, Massachusetts. Odette was moving toward the northeast at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were’ wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

A new circulation center developed on the northern side of a larger low pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean south of New England on Friday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Odette. The low level center of Odette was surrounded by lower clouds and showers. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the northern and eastern periphery of Tropical Storm Odette. Bands in the other parts of Odette’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing across the top of Tropical Storm Odette. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear was contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) on the eastern side of Odette. The winds on the western side of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Odette will move through an environment that is somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Odette will move over water in the Gulf Stream where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. The upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will continue to cause vertical wind shear, but the shear could decrease on Saturday. Tropical Storm Odette could strengthen during the next 24 hours. Odette will move over cooler water later in the weekend when it moves north of the Gulf Stream. Tropical Storm Odette will make a transition to an extratropical cyclone when it moves over cooler water. Odette could strengthen during the transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will steer Tropical Storm Odette toward the northeast during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Odette will pass southeast of Cape Cod. Odette could approach southeastern Newfoundland by late in the weekend.

Tropical Storm Nana Moves Over Guatemala

Tropical Storm Nana moved over Guatemala on Thursday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Nana was located at latitude 16.3°N and longitude 90.6°W which put it about 120 miles (195 km) north of Guatemala City, Guatemala.  Nana was moving toward the west t 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

After making landfall in southern Belize as a hurricane on Wednesday night, Tropical Storm Nana moved westward over northern Guatemala.  The small circulation around Nana weakened steadily on Thursday.  Tropical Storm Nana was dropping locally heavy rain over Guatemala on Thursday afternoon.  The heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Nana will weaken to a tropical depression within a few hours.  Nana will continue to move toward the west.  It could emerge over the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Friday.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Depression Omar moved away from Bermuda.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Omar was located at latitude 35.9°N and longitude 61.1°W which put it about 335 miles (540 km) northeast of Bermuda.  Omar was moving toward the east at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Nana Strengthens to a Hurricane Near Belize

Former Tropical Storm Nana strengthened into a hurricane as it neared a landfall in Belize.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Nana was located at latitude 17.0°N and longitude 87.5°W which put it about 60 miles (95 km) southeast of Belize City, Belize.  Nana was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Belize City to the Belize/Guatemala border.  A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Belize City to the Belize/Mexico border.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Belize City to Belize/Mexico border.  A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala, Isla Roatan and the Bay Islands.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the north coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the border with Guatemala.

Former Tropical Storm Nana moved into a more favorable environment on Wednesday night and strengthened to a hurricane.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of circulation and those thunderstorms helped to spin up the circulation.  Since the circulation around Hurricane Nana was relatively small, it was able to spin up into a hurricane in a few hours.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) on the northern side of Nana.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Nana has a few more hours when it could strengthen before it makes landfall in southern Belize.  Nana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be less vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Nana could get a little stronger.

Hurricane Nana will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Nana a little to the south of due west.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Nana will make landfall on the coast of Belize south of Belize City early on Wednesday morning.  Nana will be capable of causing localized wind damage.  It could cause a storm surge of up to eight feet (2.6 meters) along the south coast of Belize.  Hurricane Nana will drop heavy rain over parts of southern Belize and northern Guatemala.  Flash floods could occur in some locations.

Elsewhere over the North Atlantic Ocean, former Tropical Storm Omar weakened to a tropical depression north of Bermuda.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Omar was located at latitude 36.1°N and longitude 64.1°W which put it about 265 miles (425 km) north of Bermuda.  Omar was moving toward the east at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Tropical Storm Nana Strengthens, Hurricane Watch Issued for Belize

Tropical Storm Nana strengthened on Tuesday night and a Hurricane Watch was issued for Belize.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Nana was located at latitude 17.0°N and longitude 80.9°W which put it about 485 miles (775 km) east of Belize City, Belize.  Nana was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was issued for the entire coast of Belize.  A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for Belize.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala and for the north coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the border with Guatemala including Roatan Island and the Bay Islands.

Tropical Storm Nana continued to strengthen on Tuesday night.  There were signs that a small eye might be starting to form in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of circulation.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Nana will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Nana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29.5°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Nana is likely to intensify into a hurricane on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Nana will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Nana toward the west during the next 24 to 36 hours.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Nana will pass north of Honduras.  Nana could approach Belize on Wednesday night.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Omar continued to move away from North Carolina.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Omar was located at latitude 35.8°N and longitude 70.0°W which put it about 310 miles (500 km) east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  Omar was moving toward the east-northeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Depression Fifteen Forms South of Cape Hatteras

Tropical Depression Fifteen formed south of Cape Hatteras on Monday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen was located at latitude 32.6°N and longitude 76.5°W which put it about 190 miles (305 km) south-southwest of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  The depression was moving toward the northeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters’ reconnaissance flight found that there was a closed low level circulation in a low pressure system south of Cape Hatteras and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Fifteen.  The circulation around Tropical Depression Fifteen was still organizing.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the low level center of circulation.  Storms near the center started to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the east of the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Fifteen will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next day or two.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28.5°C.  It will move near the southern periphery of the upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes.  Those winds will blow toward the top of the depression and they will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The shear will inhibit intensification, but it will not be enough to prevent the depression from strengthening.  Tropical Depression Fifteen will likely strengthen into a tropical storm.

Tropical Depression Fifteen will move around the northern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer the depression toward the east-northeast during the next several days.  On its anticipated track the depression will move away from the U.S. and it will pass north of Bermuda.

Tropical Depression Fifteen Forms Southeast of Cabo Verde Islands

Tropical Depression Fifteen formed southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen was located at latitude 13.2°N and longitude 20.2°W which put it about 320 miles (515 km) southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.  The depression was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A large, well developed low pressure system embedded in the northern end of a tropical wave moved over the Atlantic Ocean west of North Africa on Monday.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms began to strengthen when the low moved over water and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Fifteen.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of the depression.  Storms closer to the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from Tropical Depression Fifteen.  The circulation around the depression was quite large.  The diameter of the low level circulation was about 500 miles (800 km).

Tropical Depression Fifteen will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 48 hours.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge centered over North Africa.  The upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear during the next day or two.  Tropical Depression Fifteen is likely to strengthen into Tropical Storm Nestor.

The ridge over North Africa will steer Tropical Depression Fifteen toward the northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track the center of the depression could reach the Cabo Verde Islands within 24 hours.  Since the depression is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm watches and/or warnings could be issued.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Melissa completed a transition to an extratropical cyclone on Monday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located at latitude 41.0°N and longitude 51.4°W which put it about 405 miles (650 km) south-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland.  Melissa was moving toward the east at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.