Tag Archives: Baja California

Hurricane Priscilla Starts to Weaken

Hurricane Priscilla started to weaken on Tuesday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Priscilla was located at latitude 20.6°N and longitude 111.5°W which put the center about 190 miles (305 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Priscilla was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Lucas to Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.

Hurricane Priscilla started to weaken on Tuesday evening after Priscilla had strengthened to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale earlier in the day.  Hurricane Priscilla appeared to have mixed cooler water to the surface of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  A large eye with a diameter of 50 miles (80 km) was still present at the center of Priscilla’s circulation.  However, the ring of thunderstorms surrounding the eye was broken in several places.  Also, many of the thunderstorms in bands in the eastern side of Hurricane Priscilla had weakened.  The bands in the eastern part of Priscilla’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the western half of Hurricane Priscilla.

The circulation around Hurricane Priscilla was still large.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Priscilla’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (315 km) from the center of Hurricane Priscilla.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Priscilla was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 17.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 34.9.

Hurricane Priscilla will move through an environment that will become more unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  An upper level trough near the west coast of the U.S. will start to produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Priscilla’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to begin to increase.  In addition, the cooler water mixed to the surface of the ocean by Priscilla’s winds will limit the energy transfer from the ocean to the atmosphere.  The effects of cooler water and increasing vertical wind shear will cause Hurricane Priscilla to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Priscilla will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Priscilla toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Priscilla will move parallel to the coast of southwestern Baja California on Wednesday.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Octave weakened far to the southwest of Baja California.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Octave was located at latitude 15.2°N and longitude 118.0.°W which put the center about 750 miles (1205 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Octave was moving toward the east at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Hurricane Priscilla Moves South of Baja California

Hurricane Priscilla moved south of Baja California on Monday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Priscilla was located at latitude 19.1°N and longitude 108.5°W which put the center about 275 miles (445 km) south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California.  Priscilla was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Lucas to Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.

Hurricane Priscilla was showing evidence of intensification on Monday evening.  New tall thunderstorms were forming just to the south of the center of Priscilla’s circulation.  Microwave satellite imagery was indicating that an eye might be forming at the center of Hurricane Priscilla.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center.  Storms near the center of Priscilla generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Priscilla was very large.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 50 miles (80 km) in the eastern side of Priscilla’s circulation.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the western side of Priscilla.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of Hurricane Priscilla.

Hurricane Priscilla will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Priscilla will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Priscilla will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Priscilla could strengthen to a major hurricane on Tuesday.

Hurricane Priscilla will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Priscilla slowly toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Priscilla will move closer to the southern part of Baja California on Tuesday.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, former Hurricane Octave weakened back to a tropical storm on Monday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Octave was located at latitude 15.8°N and longitude 120.4°W which put the center about 840 miles (1355 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Octave was moving toward the east-southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Priscilla and Octave Intensify to Hurricanes

Former Tropical Storms Priscilla and Octave both intensified to hurricanes over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Sunday.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Priscilla was located at latitude 16.5°N and longitude 107.1°W which put the center about 285 miles (460 km) south-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.  Priscilla was moving toward the north-northwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita, Mexico.

Former Tropical Storm Priscilla intensified to a hurricane southwest of Mexico on Sunday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern side of the center of Priscilla’s circulation.  An eye appeared to be forming at the center of Hurricane Priscilla.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Priscilla’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Priscilla generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the southeastern part of Hurricane Priscilla.  Hurricane force winds extended out 40 miles in the southeastern quadrant of Priscilla’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of Hurricane Priscilla.

Hurricane Priscilla will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Priscilla will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Priscilla will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Priscilla could strengthen to a major hurricane by Tuesday.

Hurricane Priscilla will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Priscilla slowly toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Priscilla will move south of Baja California on Tuesday.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, former Tropical Storm Octave also intensified to a hurricane on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Octave was located at latitude 16.0°N and longitude 123.3°W which put the center about 995 miles (1600 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Octave was moving toward the northeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

Tropical Storm Priscilla Forms Southwest of Mexico

Tropical Storm Priscilla formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico on Saturday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Priscilla was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 106.6°W which put the center about 285 miles (460 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Priscilla was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita, Mexico.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico strengthened on Saturday afternoon and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Priscilla.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Priscilla was large.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Priscilla’s circulation on Saturday afternoon.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Priscilla.  Storms near the center of Priscilla began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northern side of Tropical Storm Priscilla.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) in the northern part of Priscilla’s circulation.  The winds in the southern side of Tropical Storm Priscilla were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Priscilla will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Priscilla will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.   It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Priscilla will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Priscilla could strengthen to a hurricane by Monday.

Tropical Storm Priscilla will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Priscilla slowly toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Priscilla will move a little closer toward the west coast of Mexico.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Octave continued to meander far to the south-southwest of Baja California.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Octave was located at latitude 14.9°N and longitude 123.9°W which put the center about 1065 miles (1720 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Octave was moving toward the north-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Tropical Storm Octave Spins South of Baja California

Tropical Storm Octave was spinning over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean far to the south of Baja California on Wednesday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Octave was located at latitude 12.2°N and longitude 117.0°W which put the center about 875 miles (1405 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Octave was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Storm Octave strengthened on Wednesday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern and eastern sides of the center of Octave’s circulation.  Bands of thunderstorms were in the western half of Tropical Storm Octave.  The bands in the eastern part of Octave’s circulation still consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  The storms near the center of Octave generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Octave was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Octave’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Octave will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Octave will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern side of an upper level ridge that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Octave’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Octave could intensify gradually during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Octave will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Octave toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Octave will remain far to the south of Baja California.

Tropical Storm Octave Forms South of Baja California

Tropical Storm Octave formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean far to the south of Baja California on Tuesday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Octave was located at latitude 9.9°N and longitude 113.5°W which put the center about 930 miles (1495 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Octave was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean far to the south of Baja California strengthened on Tuesday morning and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Octave.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Octave was organizing gradually on Tuesday.  Thunderstorms developed near the center of Octave’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the western side of Tropical Storm Octave.  Bands in the eastern half of Octave’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Octave began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Octave was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Octave’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Octave will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Octave will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern side of an upper level ridge that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Octave’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Octave could intensify gradually during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Octave will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Octave toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Octave will remain far to the south of Baja California.

Narda Weakens to a Tropical Storm

Former Hurricane Narda weakened to a tropical storm as it moved over cooler water west of Baja California on Saturday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Narda was located at latitude 18.7°N and longitude 125.9°W which put the center about 1070 miles (1725 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Narda was moving toward the north-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

Former Hurricane Narda weakened to a tropical storm as it moved over cooler water west of Baja California.  Many of the thunderstorms in Narda’s circulation weakened when it moved over the cooler water.  There were still some thunderstorms occurring near the center of Tropical Storm Narda.  However, those storms generated much less upper level divergence.  As a result, the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere was greater than the outflow of mass in the upper levels.  The greater inflow of mass caused the surface pressure to increase.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Tropical Storm Narda.

Tropical Storm Narda will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Narda will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 24°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Narda will weaken during the next 24 hours as it moves over colder Sea Surface Temperatures.

Tropical Storm Narda will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is over Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Narda toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Narda will remain far to the west of Baja California.

 

Hurricane Narda Spins Southwest of Baja California

Hurricane Narda was spinning southwest of Baja California on Friday morning.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Narda was located at latitude 16.4°N and longitude 120.7°W which put the center about 835 miles (1340 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Narda was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Hurricane Narda did not change much during the past 36 hours.  Thunderstorms were still occurring near the center of Narda’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Narda.  Storms near the center of Narda generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The outflow of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure did not change much.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Narda did increase during the past 36 hours.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Narda’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of Hurricane Narda.

Hurricane Narda will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Narda will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  An upper level ridge that is over northwestern Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Narda’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will still inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to stop intensification. Hurricane Narda could intensify during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Narda will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Narda toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Narda will move farther away from Baja California.  Narda is forecast to move toward the north during the weekend when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system.

Hurricane Narda Moves South of Baja California

Hurricane Narda moved south of Baja California on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Narda was located at latitude 15.1°N and longitude 112.3°W which put the center about 560 miles (905 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Narda was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

The distribution of thunderstorms in Hurricane Narda became more asymmetrical on Wednesday.  Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western side of Narda’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern side of Hurricane Narda consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Narda still generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the hurricane.

An upper level ridge over northwestern Mexico was producing easterly winds that blew toward the top of Hurricane Narda.  Those winds caused moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear caused the distribution of thunderstorms to become asymmetrical.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Narda increased on Wednesday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Narda’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Hurricane Narda.

Hurricane Narda will move through an environment that will become more favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Narda will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  The upper level ridge that is over northwestern Mexico will continue to produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Narda’s circulation.  However, those winds are forecast to weaken on Thursday, which would mean there will be less vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will still inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to stop intensification.  Hurricane Narda could intensify during the next 24 hours if the upper level winds weaken.

Hurricane Narda will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Narda toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Narda will move southwest of Baja California.

Narda Intensifies to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Narda intensified to a hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico on Tuesday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Narda was located at latitude 15.8°N and longitude 107.3°W which put the center about 295 miles (475 km) southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Narda was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Narda intensified to a hurricane on Tuesday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western side of Narda’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Narda.  Storms near the center of Narda generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were blowing in the northern side of Hurricane Narda.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) in the northern half of Narda’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Hurricane Narda.

Hurricane Narda will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Narda will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge that is over northwestern Mexico.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Narda’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to stop intensification.  Hurricane Narda will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Narda will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Narda toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Narda will move south of Baja California on Wednesday.